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Kyuri
11-09-2014, 05:36 AM
The second Night has now ended. Dot was killed. She was a Vanilla Townie.

Live list:

Dirac
Dot Vanilla Townie
LowIQLogan
Slab_Bulkhead Innocent Child
Utisz
Osito Polar Vanilla Townie
Light Leak
lethe
Hephaestus
Dr. Ahcir
Noir
Polemarch
Granny Smith Mafia Goon
P-O
tele


Day 3 begins now!

Again, things you might want to keep in mind:

I will only count bolded votes made in this thread (and other Day threads I create)
Vote is plurality. You can change your vote at any time during the Day.
The Day ends exactly 48 hours from the time of this post regardless of whether I have announced it. After that no changes to your vote will count.
Nights will last 12 hours or until I have received all Night actions.
I consider any role from this list (http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Category:Normal_Roles) fair game.


Do not quote my PMs verbatim or use its wording to prove towniness.
As I've said before, once dead, players should not influence the game.

P-O
11-09-2014, 07:30 AM
Vampires must be destroyed. Polemarch's soul must be purged of evil.

jigglypuff
11-09-2014, 07:37 AM
^ what are your reasons?

Polemarch
11-09-2014, 07:49 AM
Vampires must be destroyed. Polemarch's soul must be purged of evil.

Why me? Seems extremely arbitrary. I'm tired of being suspected just for being suspicious - happens to me every game.

I made a good case for Utisz last round, and it's even stronger now. That's twice in a row he's been on the wrong side of a vote. The first time, he argued in defense of someone who wound up being Mafia. Second time, he argued in favor of me, basically just to save himself from death, and once the tide shifted to Osito, he claimed to have more substantial reasons for choosing him, other than just self-preservation. Once again, he was on the wrong side of a vote.

Does he just get away with this the whole game? Stop overthinking this.

P-O
11-09-2014, 08:14 AM
I guess you're right. It's pretty arbitrary. You were a contentious figure last round so I thought you might be a good place to start. But i'm honestly not feeling strong about anybody inparticular.

Your right about what Usitz did except that his "last minute reasons" for choosing osito were solid (IMO) and, equally importantly, self preservation is a good enough reason on its own.
I'm giving usitz the benefit of the doubt right now because he introduced what was a potentially a powerful weapon for the townies. Using slab's position the way we did was a good idea that a mafia would have been wise to keep quiet about.
Can he still be a mafia? Yes. It's just that this fact lends him a degree of credibility that other townies don't have in my eyes.

I might be better going with an old favorite. Dr. Ahcir. Who's either so disingenuous or so easily manipulated that I got him to vote to lynch himself on the first day... and where he felt the need to explain why he wasn't voting for himself when he changed his vote.

jigglypuff
11-09-2014, 08:18 AM
Why me? Seems extremely arbitrary. I'm tired of being suspected just for being suspicious - happens to me every game.

I made a good case for Utisz last round, and it's even stronger now. That's twice in a row he's been on the wrong side of a vote. The first time, he argued in defense of someone who wound up being Mafia. Second time, he argued in favor of me, basically just to save himself from death, and once the tide shifted to Osito, he claimed to have more substantial reasons for choosing him, other than just self-preservation. Once again, he was on the wrong side of a vote.

Does he just get away with this the whole game? Stop overthinking this.
tbh i wanna vote him too cuz, along with the weird voting, he was arguing for full transparency in the beginning before he suggested the PM thing. it suggests he doesn't believe what he says.

lethe
11-09-2014, 08:32 AM
I'm going full P-O this round

Noir
11-09-2014, 09:08 AM
I want to sleep, and then possibly carry on in the morning. Also I am sorta drunk. Sorry Dot. = (

Utisz
11-09-2014, 02:54 PM
I'm trying to figure out what we just learned (if anything).

We now know Dot was townie (RIP) and Osito was townie (RIP).

We're also pretty sure we know who Dot PM'ed.

And it seems likely that Dot knew who the Cop was and sacrificed herself for the Cop.

If the Mafia knew who the real Cop was, they wouldn't know if the Cop was in contact with other people or not. So they would have been more incentivised to kill the Cop.

Did we learn anything else?

Utisz
11-09-2014, 03:06 PM
I'm tired of being suspected just for being suspicious

hehe, wot?

LordLatch
11-09-2014, 03:37 PM
P-O yeah you're next after Utisz.

Utisz
11-09-2014, 03:45 PM
Anyways, this thread is a bit too quiet. It feels like we're a bit stumped. I suggest it might be a good exercise for us to post our opinions of all the other players. Again, we may not have strong evidence but by now we should have some opinions to express, even if just on tone or hunches or whatever. Feel free to keep it short.

So I'll start. The colours are from green (more likely to be townie IMO) to red (more likely to be mafia IMO). Or put another way, it also rates effectiveness of potential Mafia from green (you have me fooled) to red (I have my eye on you).

Again, these are mostly just my opinions and again, I'd encourage others to do likewise (colour or other rating scheme optional).



Dirac: He's generally been under the radar or drunk. I was surprised that he suspected me in the last round just because I would have expected him to acknowledge that the Slab scheme was a good 'un and I was surprised he didn't really bother to consider my defence to Noir's point like Noir did. Admittedly this is less suspicious now that we know Osito is townie.

LowIQLogan: He has generally made a lot of sense to me even when he was criticising me. There were a couple of points in the game where he acted a bit irrationally, like pushing for full transparency of PMs that could reveal a Cop or pushing hard for Dot longer than I'd expect, but I think the information we had at the time was contradictory and confusing as hell.

Light Leak Has asked a lot of questions, generally seemed curious. I don't have a strong opinion of her.

lethe Similar to Light Leak, has been engaged, asking questions. I think the way she initially reacted so strongly to the Slab plan gives her some credibility in my mind as a Townie.

Hephaestus I've both agreed and disagreed with Hephaestus at times but more on mechanics of the game rather than anything else. I don't have reason to suggest he's townie or mafia really.

Dr. Ahcir Has generally not contributed anything or tried to contribute anything other than quips here and there. Said that weird thing about there being only two mafia in the first round. His defence to that was a bit disorganised, which I actually think is to his credit as a townie (I'd expect if he were Mafia and he were bluffing, his defence of the two Mafia deal would have been more careful). But he's still a bit "fishy".

Noir Has been doing some nice summaries of events and so forth and his tone is quite Townie to me: like when he had the theory that I was Mafia and that my block scheme was to save Granny Smith, he got quite excited like he thought it might be a breakthrough. The way he acknowledged my defence also gives him street-cred in my mind.

Polemarch I have two theories about Polemarch: either he is a townie and he's generally not very engaged in Mafia games (which previous experience might support), or he's Mafia. Either way he does not come across as thinking like a townie to me. Most of his posts come across as lazy from a townie perspective and I would expect better from him if he were trying.

P-O Along with LowIQLogan, has made a lot of sense throughout the game in my mind. Has generally put forward interesting ideas and been level-headed and been thinking like a Townie.

tele has been pretty quiet in my mind at least. Her general tone leans towards Townie ... but I don't find much to either suspect her or not to suspect her.

Utisz
11-09-2014, 03:55 PM
In terms of Polemarch's tone, the best way to summarise it is that, for me, he has uncharacteristically and repeatedly projected an air of certainty where there is none.

On a side note, can we change the sticky?


Anyways, hope to hear everyone's opinions on the other players, even if short.

Hephaestus
11-09-2014, 06:17 PM
tbh i wanna vote him too cuz, along with the weird voting, he was arguing for full transparency in the beginning before he suggested the PM thing. it suggests he doesn't believe what he says.

Not so much. There are different levels of "full transparency" to consider. If you are going to suggest a mechanic like his block voting scheme, then you need to have full transparency because that sort of thing as a black box is too scary to approach. Full transparency worked there too because the risks involved were readily apparent.

However, full transparency with Operation Slab would have been a bad thing, as any intelligence officer would attest. Operation Slab was a different beast because it produced information. Utisz Folly did not produce information other than who was going to be lynched.




Why me? Seems extremely arbitrary. I'm tired of being suspected just for being suspicious - happens to me every game.


You're alive on the third day? How is that not suspicious?


P-O yeah you're next after Utisz.

You've yet to do much more than splash at the edge of the pool here. You've done little to justify your accusations, and at best, they're just noob reactions to being accused.

But, that alone doesn't make you a Vamp.


Meta:

In any game containing noobs, the following will happen:

1. A noob will think voting for themselves is a daring and bold strategy. (It isn't. But most of us have done it, so we know better.)

2. There will be a flailer.

3. A noob will fail to take the game with the right level of gravitas, and draw suspicion on themselves for failure to be paranoid or engaged.

Usually, all the above turn out to be townie. That's because if they weren't, their teammates would either throw them under the bus early, or clamp down on them in private communication.



Anyways, hope to hear everyone's opinions on the other players, even if short.

Dirac: If he's a Vamp, he's playing well. He's staying off radar, and claims of intoxication are credible and explain his behavior. Could be boozing to assuage guilt over being a life-stealer.

LowIQLogan: I hope he's a Vamp because I'd hate to think someone who spends the proportion of energy he spends into riling people up is on our side. Ironically, he has made a number of posts that were rational and reasoned, but they get dwarfed in my mind by the ones intended to prick and needle needlessly.

Utisz: I put low probability on him being a Vamp. Yes, he's developed convoluted schemes that haven't managed to work out as well in-game as they did on paper. One was fundamentally flawed, the other was badly executed, probably because there wasn't enough time to do it right. The point is, I can empathize. Been there, done that, at least once got my neck stretched for the effort. I find him credible as a Vanilla Townie making the best of his situation.

However, I have one criticism. He said he lost 2.5 hours fiddling with one of the follies only to have it go bust and get nothing for the effort. I contest that assertion because I know damn well he loved every minute of it.

Light Leak: She always feels quiet, but she also feels like she's carefully observing. I've no real strong feelings either way. She's offered a bit less analysis than she has in the past, but then, I find myself playing more quietly and carefully too. No feelings either way.

lethe: Do not trust. I think it highly likely she is a Vampien. She sets off my sixth sense like crazy so I know she's hiding something. In her favour, she's backed down from bad or at least questionable ideas once the problems were illuminated. Also, there may be some residual investment in seeing her as a Vampien from my misread of her opening posts on the first day.

Hephaestus: Swell dude. A bit verbose, but he reads like a Vanilla Townie to me.

Dr. Ahcir: Probably just can't get invested in the atmosphere, but overall and extremely shallow player. We're trawling, and he's skipping rocks. It's also possible his detachment is because he's just giddy watching us kill each other.

Noir: Previously I suspected him because of a wording issue, but his explanation holds water. I'd put him on the townie side of neutral.

Polemarch: He's still alive?

P-O: lethe mentioned he gave her monstrous vibes. I understand that--he's a savage player, always has been. It can make him hard to read. He's a natural "Miller (http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Miller)". I have little else to say on the matter, but he's always going to read on the darker side of neutral--the price of a willingness to have bloody knuckles.

tele: Sort of the opposite of Dr. Ahcir. Definitely engaged, and definitely paranoid. I think Maddy would think her practically a model townie save for brevity and reticence. Vampiens don't generally run scared until their on the horns. She's never really been, and she looks like she's worried the sky will fall in.

LordLatch
11-09-2014, 08:18 PM
You've yet to do much more than splash at the edge of the pool here. You've done little to justify your accusations, and at best, they're just noob reactions to being accused.

But, that alone doesn't make you a Vamp.

Yeah your trawling is stirring up more confusion. More mud in the water.

So far all the fingerpointing and discussion has yielded an accidental 50% success rate. I say accidental because if GS's computer wouldn't have failed, she wouldn't have been lynched. I never saw or understood the logic behind throwing Oso under the bus. All the pm discussion meant nothing to me because I didn't get one and so couldn't bring myself to trust anything said about it. Utisz attempt to apply an algorithm to solve the problem may be fraught with nuance meant to manipulate innocent townies. As a noob I wouldn't know and I only perceive the surface stuff because that's all I understand.

If I remember right, my voting was:
myself- I didn't have anything to go on and I did as P-O suggested (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1783-Mafia-II-Space-Vampires-(or-something)&p=71356&viewfull=1#post71356)
GS- I followed the herd to stop voting for myself
Utisz- I remembered my accuser who's logic pointing at me seemed bazaar and unwarranted. If he is a scummy mafia then his action make sense- he pointed at me who he knew was a townie and upon seeing he garnered little support in my direction he abruptly dropped his anti Dr. Ahcir rhetoric without an explanation.

Everybody has forgotten he said with underlines there was evidence GS was a townie (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1783-Mafia-II-Space-Vampires-(or-something)&p=71315&viewfull=1#post71315)- Where is that evidence now? And let's not also forget his own logic in line 2 of this post (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1783-Mafia-II-Space-Vampires-(or-something)&p=71351&viewfull=1#post71351). He knew she was Mafia.

Incidentally, Heph's attempt to negate my Utisz vote by calling it unsubstantiated has heightened my awareness of him(Heph) He has successfully unseated P-O from the number 2 spot.

Light Leak
11-09-2014, 08:18 PM
Dirac: quiet and hasn't seemed to offer much input, which I find mildly suspicious but I also have no evidence to suggest he's not a townie
I don't really have real strong suspicions of anyone at this point, but here's some general thoughts on everyone.


LowIQLogan: has made some good points. I don't recall him being quite as vocal in previous games. can't get a good read on him.

Utisz: I was suspicious of his folly plans - and then further suspicious last round based on some of Noir's observations. But Utisz has been able to reasonable explain everything so far. If he's mafia - he's good.

lethe: can't really read her, but she's asking good questions. still I'm a little suspicious of her, but it may just be because I'm finding her difficult to read.

Hephaestus - comes across as townie to me. Then again, Heph comes across as townie to me in every game I've played with him.

Dr. Ahcir - he's either a terrible townie or terrible mafia. don't know what to think of him.

Noir: offering good input. seems townie. if he's mafia he's fooling me

Polemarch: seems focused on just Utisz since day one ended which strikes me as a little odd. Not that I haven't had suspicion of Utisz, but others are also suspicious

P-O: mildly suspicious, but making some good points. I generally get a mildly suspicious vibe from him though.

tele: she's been asking questions and offering input. seems townie.

Light Leak
11-09-2014, 08:19 PM
I formatted that dumb. The part about Dirac should have gone below where I said I didn't have strong suspicions on anyone. That's not part of what I think about Dirac.

P-O
11-09-2014, 09:40 PM
If I remember right, my voting was:
myself- I didn't have anything to go on and [URL="http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1783-Mafia-

Were you unsure of whether you were a vamp or not? Did kyuri forget to let you know? You certainly had SOMEthing to go on.

LordLatch
11-09-2014, 09:45 PM
Were you unsure of whether you were a vamp or not? Did kyuri forget to let you know? You certainly had SOMEthing to go on.

I had nothing to go on to vote for someone else and you know that's what I meant.

P-O
11-09-2014, 09:52 PM
I had nothing to go on to vote for someone else and you know that's what I meant.

If you're a townie, that's a reason to vote for ANYONE else. What are the odds that you'll hit a mafia if you vote for yourself? Either 0% or 100%. It's obvious, right?

LordLatch
11-09-2014, 10:04 PM
If you're a townie, that's a reason to vote for ANYONE else. What are the odds that you'll hit a mafia if you vote for yourself? Either 0% or 100%. It's obvious, right?

It was literally the first vote of my first ever mafia game and it was YOUR idea! My thinking was if my dying helped the town win, it was worth it. It still is worth it.

P-O
11-09-2014, 10:34 PM
Light leak: Too quiet; I'd like to hear more... but that's how she played last time too.

Dirac: Similar to others. Not much of a read. I don't remember what his position on killing dot was, but if it was in favor, I'd be more suspicious of him, because i remember that he was one of the people that spoke to slab about it. (If i remember correctly) Has expressed a desire to kill me.

LowIQLogan: Dot and heph suspected him for being an asshole. It's not an unreasonable argument; but it's not something I'd prefer to pursue right now. He's at least offering input.

Utisz: I'll repeat my earlier judgment: his "last minute reasons" for choosing osito were solid (IMO) and, equally importantly, self preservation is a good enough reason on its own.
I'm giving usitz the benefit of the doubt right now because he introduced what was a potentially a powerful weapon for the townies. Using slab's position the way we did was a good idea that a mafia would have been wise to keep quiet about.
Can he still be a mafia? Yes. It's just that this fact lends him a degree of credibility that other townies don't have in my eyes.


lethe: Has had a hard on for killing me since day one. I suspected her at first with the "kill the good players" idea, but I feel that her growing paranoia about one target in particular (namely me) is characteristic of a townie.

Hephaestus -
His attack on usitz randomized voting idea early on felt over the top to me; but besides that has been very reasonable.

Dr. Ahcir: Seems to think that the noob defense will keep him safe from my wrath.

Noir: Don't really remember his positions on anything. I do like the summaries though. We should keep him around for those alone.

Polemarch: I agree with the assessment that he's not offering as much input as he "ought" to be. I'll be interested to read his assessments of everybody.

tele: Gives reasonable input; but is a bit quiet.

Utisz
11-09-2014, 10:58 PM
Thanks for all the opinions so far. Here's links to what we've got so far:

Utisz (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72323&viewfull=1#post72323)
Hephaestus (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72338&viewfull=1#post72338)
Light Leak (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72351&viewfull=1#post72351)
P-O (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72351&viewfull=1#post72351)

Waiting on ...

Dirac
LowIQLogan
lethe
Dr. Ahcir
Noir
Polemarch
tele


I think this exercise is really important and hope that everyone takes part (esp. the Mafia!).

The thread would be practically dead/uninformative otherwise and there's no way that's good for the Town.

Utisz
11-09-2014, 11:10 PM
My thinking was if my dying helped the town win, it was worth it. It still is worth it.

My advice: If you are a Townie, defend yourself!

It is a crucial responsibility of every Townie to defend themselves as well as possible, simply because every time the Town lynches a Townie in the day time, that's a missed opportunity for the Town.

After missing a certain number of times, the Town loses.

So if you are a Townie, it's your job to make sure we don't waste a shot on you in the day time. In fact, it's probably your most important job! Everything else is just shooting in the dark.

If some folks suspect you, don't get offended and don't do passive aggressive stunts like vote for yourself. The main thing that helps the Town is for you to put up a convincing defence and let the Town try look up someone less convincing.

Light Leak
11-09-2014, 11:12 PM
Light leak: Too quiet; I'd like to hear more...

Anything in particular you would like to hear more about?

Utisz
11-09-2014, 11:16 PM
My advice: If you are a Townie, defend yourself!

^^ fwiw, it was the same deal when Dot started saying things like she was okay with getting day-voted in the last round.

Though Dot might be okay with it, I wasn't: I wasn't okay with wasting a day turn on someone I was pretty sure was a Townie.

Martyr complex is not becoming of a good townie.

(... unless it's to protect a special role or something like that, but Dot getting day-voted had nothing to do with that.)

P-O
11-09-2014, 11:17 PM
Anything in particular you would like to hear more about?

Who should we lynch today?

Light Leak
11-09-2014, 11:23 PM
Who should we lynch today?

If I had to make a decision right this second I'd probably go with Polemarch. I don't love that decision because it's really only based on the reason that he seems to be so focused on killing Utisz and not giving much input elsewhere, but at this point I don't have a better idea.

Hephaestus
11-09-2014, 11:27 PM
Everybody has forgotten he said with underlines there was evidence GS was a townie (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1783-Mafia-II-Space-Vampires-(or-something)&p=71315&viewfull=1#post71315)- Where is that evidence now?
The evidence was that there was no struggle to lynch GS. That is literally the evidence referred to. It's still there, it's just moot. We didn't lynch her because we thought she wasn't a townie, we lynched her because inactive players are detrimental to the town. Yes, it was a stroke of luck for the town that she wasn't able to show up before she was dead.

That said, you are right that Utisz choosing to accuse you after a known townie accused you is very suspicious. I can easily see that Utisz' argument of "but no one is trying to save her so she must be a townie" actually was an attempt to save her.

Utisz
11-09-2014, 11:31 PM
That said, you are right that Utisz choosing to accuse you after a known townie accused you is very suspicious.

fwiw, I'm pretty sure I was the first to express suspicions about Dr. Ahcir here (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1783-Mafia-II-Space-Vampires-(or-something)&p=71225&viewfull=1#post71225). He wasn't discussed before that.

LordLatch
11-10-2014, 12:08 AM
If some folks suspect you, don't get offended and don't do passive aggressive stunts like vote for yourself.

It doesn't offend me- I think it's funny and I'm playing the role. I haven't said anything to warrant an accusation. Besides that whatever I'm doing, I'm doing it right because the town still has me in their numbers and I didn't vote to lynch Oso. I read someone say or in one of the wikis all we really have to go on is voting patterns. Anyone voting for me is suspicious and anyone voting for Oso is very suspicious. I'll give my impressions after I get back from dinner.

Utisz
11-10-2014, 12:19 AM
I was just thinking of something a little off the wall. Despite what I said in my opinions, I'm going to vote LowIQLogan.

Before I go into more detail on why, I want to hear him defend himself. LowIQLogan, why shouldn't I vote for you? Why should I think you're townie?

P-O
11-10-2014, 12:28 AM
Anyone voting for me is suspicious and anyone voting for Oso is very suspicious. I'll give my impressions after I get back from dinner.



I vote Dr. Ahcir

I guess you see the problem now

Light Leak
11-10-2014, 01:06 AM
It doesn't offend me- I think it's funny and I'm playing the role.

You think this is some type of joke? We have vampailiens hiding out among us, killing us off one by one in the night. Worse we're all getting paranoid and turning on each other and lynching innocent people and you just think it's funny that people suspect you?! What's wrong with you.

P-O
11-10-2014, 03:15 AM
lethe:.. since day one....

Actually i just skimmed the day 1 thread, she didn't attack me till day 2. I was more suspicious of her on day one because she was consistently arguing against what i saw as the good ideas.

lethe
11-10-2014, 03:33 AM
I've been quite busy today, will write in the morning.

LordLatch
11-10-2014, 04:30 AM
What's wrong with you.

What- you want a list? We don't have all day to go over my faults.

I'm wiped out form all the socializing I did tonite. I'll write in the morning also.

Light Leak
11-10-2014, 04:42 AM
What- you want a list?

I really just wanted to yell at someone in space...

But, a list of suspects, or thoughts on people or the situation we're in would be nice.

LordLatch
11-10-2014, 04:49 AM
I really just wanted to yell at someone in space...

But, a list of suspects, or thoughts on people or the situation we're in would be nice.

Ok I made a chart. Wait one.

Light Leak
11-10-2014, 04:57 AM
^
One what? Minute? Hour? Day?

Can't wait any longer. Have to sleep.

LordLatch
11-10-2014, 05:01 AM
I know it's not complete- I just quickly threw this together based off of Noir's summary posts:
http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1783-Mafia-II-Space-Vampires-(or-something)&p=71519&viewfull=1#post71519
http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1789-Mafia-II-Space-Vampires-Day-2&p=72170&viewfull=1#post72170

In column 'A' we see known affiliations obviously based on my point of view. In row '1' we see people who voted for the 'knowns' with an 'x' intersecting who voted for whom.
As you can see form this chart three voters have consistently voted for known townie thus far.
http://i.imgur.com/cTflwlg.png

This method will only work this time because the mafia will vary their vote now that they are horrified to see their name in red and they know we are tracking them. Lynch one of those guys.

My vote as always is Utisz.

Hephaestus
11-10-2014, 05:13 AM
^^^Fail-Hard. The movie.

Check it out (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1783-Mafia-II-Space-Vampires-(or-something)&p=71282&viewfull=1#post71282). Hours before you joined the dogpile.

Furthermore, Slab, noted townie, also didn't vote for GrannySmith. He voted for you.

Utisz
11-10-2014, 05:28 AM
Still waiting on LowIQLogan to make an appearance. I think I can put forward an interesting case as to why I think we should vote for him ... but I'd like to hear from him first.

Why should I believe you're a townie HappyNoodleBoy?

24 hours to go.

P-O
11-10-2014, 05:28 AM
http://i.imgur.com/cTflwlg.png
Neat chart. I guess we should blame noir for all the missing/wrong information. On the other hand, it kind of makes the chart useless doesn't it? Unless you're only concerned in conveying a particular conclusion, that is.

I see you do have some fangs hidden beneath that soft, fleshy exterior.

jigglypuff
11-10-2014, 06:20 AM
impressions:

Dirac - seems pretty townie to me.

LowIQLogan - he was kinda picking on Slab when Slab came out as the innocent child, which didn't make sense to me, considering how vulnerable the position is and how threatening it seems for townies. he also was kinda rash when questioning the whole thing concerning Dot/the PMs/the cop which seemed short-sighted and dangerous, but i guess that doesn't point to anything necessarily. it didn't make sense that he'd not believe Dot, even though the point was made many times by multiple people that if she was mafia the true cop would've called her out on it.

Utisz - inconsistent and confusing, so suspicious.

Light Leak - careful and paranoid, so seems townie to me.

lethe - i remember her trying to get a lot of information out of Dot, and like LowIQLogan seemed pretty rash about it. the reasons that townies would NOT want information known publicly are quite obvious, if you are townie.

Hephaestus - hard to get a good read, but probably townie.

Dr. Ahcir - for a long time, to me, he just wasn't helping at all. i never really formed an opinion since this whole time he's been pretty low-key.

Noir - low-key, always seemed to me to be discussing points other than the central ones being made in the threads (i don't know why this is my impression). he seems to me like one of the players likely to last long in the game. idk what that suggests.

Polemarch - suspicious cuz Polemarch. lol. jk. i really don't know. he hasn't really said anything "off" to me.

P-O - a really, really good townie, almost too good. idk what that says.

tele - pretty cool townie.

Noir
11-10-2014, 07:33 AM
Wanted to lock-in some impressions before I hit the sack:

Dirac: Hasn't really offered many opinions or arguments. Most of his activity seems to have been playing catch-up or deferring to others for his voting decisions. Playing conservatively, or just busy. Neutral Townie.

LowIQLogan: Placed the initial vote for Granny Smith. Has been engaged and offers good input. I suspect him slightly for his aggression towards Dot and the possibility of him cannibalizing GS on Day One. Neutral Mafia.

Utisz: Missed his calling as a non-stick frying pan. Either he's a brilliant Mafia player or he really is Townie. Looking forward to future follies. True Neutral.

Light Leak: Don't have much of a read on her. She has a light touch but seems innocent enough. Neutral Townie.

lethe: I jumped on her yesterday for seemingly forestalling a vote on GS. I think the heart of that accusation was my attempt to make the facts fit my theory, rather than my theory<facts. Regardless, I usually find myself disagreeing with her posts and she gives me a familiar Works vibe. Neutral Mafia.

Hephaestus: Heph has always been a strong player. I'm less trusting of him than others seem to be, but it's really just a lack of sentiment either way. Neutral.

Dr. Ahcir: I suspect he's Townie, which is annoying, as his playing style is likely to get him killed. I get a strong sense of Flailing Noob Syndrome. Townie.

Noir: Damn sexy bastard. Townie.

Polemarch: Reads Townie to me generally, although his vendetta against Utisz is odd as I feel like he's defended his positions reasonably. Neutral.

P-O: Potential Mafia monster lol. I really don't have a good read on him except that he is engaged and generally makes sense. Neutral Townie.

tele: Similar to Light Leak. Not too much to add here. Neutral Townie.

Utisz
11-10-2014, 09:05 AM
Links to opinions so far:

Utisz (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72323&viewfull=1#post72323)
Hephaestus (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72338&viewfull=1#post72338)
Light Leak (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72351&viewfull=1#post72351)
P-O (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72351&viewfull=1#post72351)
tele (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72429&viewfull=1#post72429)
Noir (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72433&viewfull=1#post72433)

Waiting on ...

Dirac
LowIQLogan
lethe
Dr. Ahcir
Polemarch

LowIQLogan
11-10-2014, 09:41 AM
Hello friends, sorry I have been busy all weekend. I have been slowly making my way through posts since the arguments against Oso were made (and believed :p). It means little now that hindsight is 20-20 but I think Lethe made a lot of sense in her criticisms of many of your reasons of suspecting Oso. Particularly everyone's attack on him 'ruining' dot's and the cop's plan by making the names public (not even making dot's name public at first). As a townie who didn't receive PMs and as someone who understood Utisz's plan and the popular misunderstanding at the time that SLAB GOT TWO PEOPLE CLAIMING TO BE COPS (clarification for this fact didn't come till later in the turn) I totally believe Oso acted in benefit of the townies. IMO people like Dot, Tele, LightLeak, who explicitly stated this as justification and the other people implicitly supporting this reasoning by voting for Oso based their vote on poor arguments. Utisz stands out particularly here by wildly taking any idea he has as evidence to justify self preservation. I agree that townies have a responsibility to defend themselves, but only mafia have a responsibility to push insubstantial blame onto townies. But like I said I know its hindsight. I do have the townie high-ground since I didn't vote for Oso, whatever thats worth. I don't think I could've done more to support him than just agree with lethe.

Onto the current turn.

I'm not going to write something about every person in the game. I'll defend myself a couple times though.


Still waiting on LowIQLogan to make an appearance. I think I can put forward an interesting case as to why I think we should vote for him ... but I'd like to hear from him first.


Kinda like the interesting case you made against Oso? But seriously a lot of Utisz's contributions can be described as interesting but have been proven to be incorrect. Could this really just be mafia distraction? As the second turn comes to an end this is even more clear. I like what Polemarch said about Utisz more this turn than last turn, for obvious reasons. GS first turn was just luck and I know it so Utisz imo could be forgiven for his interesting defense of her. His voting last turn though are harder to justify.



I made a good case for Utisz last round, and it's even stronger now. That's twice in a row he's been on the wrong side of a vote. The first time, he argued in defense of someone who wound up being Mafia. Second time, he argued in favor of me, basically just to save himself from death, and once the tide shifted to Osito, he claimed to have more substantial reasons for choosing him, other than just self-preservation. Once again, he was on the wrong side of a vote.

Does he just get away with this the whole game? Stop overthinking this.

I did not agree with Polemarch last turn (in fact I voted him thinking that his arguments were weak and superficial along with most of his analysis of the game so far) but now this point is much stronger imo.



LowIQLogan: I hope he's a Vamp because I'd hate to think someone who spends the proportion of energy he spends into riling people up is on our side. Ironically, he has made a number of posts that were rational and reasoned, but they get dwarfed in my mind by the ones intended to prick and needle needlessly.


As a townie I get frustrated when townies fuck things up. I am also predisposed to holding slab in contempt.



LowIQLogan - he was kinda picking on Slab when Slab came out as the innocent child, which didn't make sense to me, considering how vulnerable the position is and how threatening it seems for townies. he also was kinda rash when questioning the whole thing concerning Dot/the PMs/the cop which seemed short-sighted and dangerous, but i guess that doesn't point to anything necessarily. it didn't make sense that he'd not believe Dot, even though the point was made many times by multiple people that if she was mafia the true cop would've called her out on it.


I picked on slab before he came out as the innocent child (in the game and before the game in general life tbh). I realize how this could make me look like mafia to heph and tele and everyone else, exploiting the weak link and all. I take full responsibility for this side effect of my sick burns, its a small price to pay.

And about Dot, you already lynched one townie who didn't want to trust dot with this as the main justification. Are you going to lynch another for having a similar reaction? Oso could not trust dot and neither could I. I hope you can now understand this trust disconnect. This point, "that if she was mafia the true cop would've called her out on it" I could not take for granted with the information I had, and just because multiple people made it doesn't mean shit. The same multiple people voted for Oso. It was flawed until I knew slab didn't really get two cop claims.


I want to vote for Utisz this turn but I'm going to flesh out my reasons more before I bold vote.

Utisz
11-10-2014, 11:45 AM
LowIQLogan is a shrewd player in these sorts of games. He's proven that in various games I organised (esp. that one time in Fuck You, Pal! when he got everyone to cooperate on the second-last round and fucked everyone over :wub:).

He was the first to vote for Granny_Smith in Round 1. It was his first substantial post.

I think if he were Mafia, bussing (http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Bussing) an inactive Mafia would be very much the sort of thing he would do ... it's a shrewd ploy ... he knew that pushing forward Granny_Smith wouldn't be too obvious since lots of people were already discussing lynching the inactive player. He probably guessed she was going to be lynched anyways. He knew he'd look Townie doing it ... it's just an out-and-out LowIQLogan-sorta move. If he were Mafia and had the opportunity, I'm sure he'd take it.

Of course, LowIQLogan might just be townie and just happened to be the first one to mention her name, but ...

Unlike a Townie, a shrewd Mafioso in the interest of bussing would have the motivation to be the first to name Granny_Smith. A Townie would have to "just happen" to be the first to actually say her name but a shrewd Mafioso would try to say her name.




There's also a bit of maths behind this where if we assume that LowIQLogan was Mafia, if he was more than 80% likely to try this bussing move, he's now more likely to be Mafia than not. Equivalently, if we assume he's Townie, and in this case you think he had a less than 20% chance of being the first player out of fourteen to just happen to mention her name first, then he's again more likely to be Mafia than not. The intuition is that although the probability of being a Mafioso is relatively low, if we assume one of the Mafiosos is more than 80% likely to try to bluff in that situation, then it's more likely a Mafioso will end up voting Granny_Smith first than a Townie.



It's not concrete, but I'd put his likelihood at about 50% Mafia, which is way higher than anyone else. That likelihood can only go up or down depending on how likely you think he'd be to bus Granny_Smith if he were sitting in that situation as Mafia: if you think he'd be >80% likely to bus her, then the likelihood that he's Mafia is >50%; if you think <80%, the likelihood is <50%. For comparison, the flat likelihood of any given person being mafia at the moment is 2/11 = 18% (assuming two Mafia left).

Utisz
11-10-2014, 12:12 PM
Maybe just to clarify the probabilities thing with an analogy.

Suppose we have a set of 5-sided fair dice ... and that we have five such dice. Of these, one special die has the number 2 on four sides. The rest only have the number 2 on one side.

You're told that a dice has been rolled and that the answer is 2. You're asked which is more likely: that the special die was rolled or one of the normal die. There's four 2's on the special die but there's also four 2's taking together all the other die. So it's equally likely that the die rolled was special or one of the normal ones.

In the first round, there were presumably 3/15 Mafia players = 1/5 where the special die represents Mafia. We know the result is 2: that LowIQLogan was the first to vote for Granny_Smith. To make it 50% likely LowIQLogan were Mafia, one would have to assume that he would be 80% likely to be the first to vote for Granny-Smith as a Mafioso (2's on four of five sides), and that he would be only 20% likely to be the first Townie to happen to vote for her.

Light Leak
11-10-2014, 12:19 PM
^
Stuff like this is what makes me wary of you Utisz. All of the math stuff could be complete BS and I wouldn't even know it.

Although the thought of bussing had crossed my mind too. I don't think LowIQLogan is the only one potentially doing it.

Light Leak
11-10-2014, 01:10 PM
I keep thinking about this.

Day one final tally (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1783-Mafia-II-Space-Vampires-%28or-something%29&p=71467&viewfull=1#post71467).


Granny Smith (11): LowIQLogan, Noir, Dot, tele, Hephaestus, lethe, Osito Polar, Polemarch, Dirac, Light Leak, Dr. Ahcir
Dr. Ahcir (3): Slab_Bulkhead, Utisz, P-O

Considering that we likely have two mafia remaining, it seems like it would make sense to not both vote for the same person. But we only have P-O and Utisz remaining who didn't vote for GS. There are 9 of us remaining who did vote for GS. I keep wanting to find one mafia in the Dr. Achir vote, and one in the GS vote. It's also possible that all mafia voted for GS, since there's a larger crowd to hide in there. I dunno.

So then we come to the day two tally (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1789-Mafia-II-Space-Vampires-Day-2&p=72170&viewfull=1#post72170):

Osito Polar (7)
P-O
Dot
Hephaestus
Tele
Utisz
Light Leak
Noir

Utisz (4)
Dr Ahcir
Dirac
Polemarch
Osito Polar

Polemarch (2)
LowIQLogan
Lethe

Our two surviving that went with the Dr. Achir vote on day one are now with the majority Oso vote on Day 2, along with 4.

I don't have a real point with this. Just some unfleshed out thoughts/observations. May as well post them and not keep them to myself.

LordLatch
11-10-2014, 02:37 PM
Most of the people I see as Townie because I don't have any reason to suspect them. The ones I suspect at mafia seem to have the same voice. It's almost collaborative like it was written by the same person.

Dirac: Drunk Townie

LowIQLogan: Townie

Utisz: Head of the mafia goons

lethe: townie

Hephaestus - maybe mafia

Dr. Ahcir - terrible townie but far sexier than Noir.

Noir: Townie

Polemarch: Townie

P-O: Utisz little mafia bitch but has a scary wrath

tele: Townie

Light Leak
11-10-2014, 02:55 PM
P-O: Utisz little mafia bitch but has a scary wrath

I highly doubt that P-O and Utisz are both mafia. Neither of them voted for GS in round one... and I would expect at least one mafia to be hiding in the GS vote that round.

P-O
11-10-2014, 02:59 PM
He was the first to vote for Granny_Smith in Round 1. It was his first substantial post.

I'm guessing you were expecting him to cite this in his defense of himself. It's a shame he didn't. The fact that he didn't takes credibility away from your argument. Maybe it's slightly more likely, but I think it's a loose connection.




I totally believe Oso acted in benefit of the townies. IMO people like Dot, Tele, LightLeak, who explicitly stated this as justification and the other people implicitly supporting this reasoning by voting for Oso based their vote on poor arguments.

So you're saying the arguments against the other players were better? You said it yourself, the argument against utisz wasn't compelling. The argument against polemarch was slightly better in that he at least wasn't giving a lot of helpful input. If you want to claim the high ground for voting for polemarch, you have to kill polemarch and find that he's a mafia... OR you have to demonstrate that the argument for polemarch was better than the argument for oso.
The mafia ended up killing dot because of how valuable she was; if we had lynched her as oso suggested, it would have saved them a turn and given them an extra shot at the cop. It'd be a risky move, but not without pay off.
Turned out not to be true, but it's not a "wild idea".



I think we should finish off Dr. Ahcir who proves with every post how little value he has to the town... Hey, killing the worthless players has been a successful strategy so far. At best he's unhelpful.

LordLatch
11-10-2014, 03:06 PM
^^^Fail-Hard. The movie.

Check it out (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1783-Mafia-II-Space-Vampires-(or-something)&p=71282&viewfull=1#post71282). Hours before you joined the dogpile.

Furthermore, Slab, noted townie, also didn't vote for GrannySmith. He voted for you.

I don't know why you bothered to post this at all.

The 3 people I highlighted each cast 100% of their votes for known Townies. That's the point. I didn't put Slab's, Oso's vote up there because from my viewpoint Townie votes are irrelevant as they are inherently flawed. The mafioso know who to vote and have to fake it to vote wrongly.

The Granny Smith line is just there as another data point but it is interesting none of you highlighted folk voted for your MIA comrade.

Lemmie just put this here again to reiterate:
http://i.imgur.com/cTflwlg.png

Light Leak
11-10-2014, 03:17 PM
The 3 people I highlighted each cast 100% of their votes for known Townies. That's the point.

You need to double check your data. Heph voted GS in round one, and shouldn't be highlighted for 100% vote for townies.

P-O
11-10-2014, 03:21 PM
I don't know why you bothered to post this at all.

The 3 people I highlighted each cast 100% of their votes for known Townies. That's the point. I didn't put Slab's, Oso's vote up there because from my viewpoint Townie votes are irrelevant as they are inherently flawed. The mafioso know who to vote and have to fake it to vote wrongly.
\

This argument will be way more compelling after we find out if you're actually a townie.

jigglypuff
11-10-2014, 04:01 PM
And about Dot, you already lynched one townie who didn't want to trust dot with this as the main justification. Are you going to lynch another for having a similar reaction? Oso could not trust dot and neither could I. I hope you can now understand this trust disconnect. This point, "that if she was mafia the true cop would've called her out on it" I could not take for granted with the information I had, and just because multiple people made it doesn't mean shit. The same multiple people voted for Oso. It was flawed until I knew slab didn't really get two cop claims.
addressing the bolded: this seems like a super obvious, stupid point to make, but townies aren't supposed to know who's townie and who's mafia, so holding it against somebody that they voted to lynch people who turned out to be townies doesn't necessarily point to anything. voting records, however, may give information if you see a pattern of "sets" of people breaking up their votes or voting together.

if you couldn't trust Dot, that means you also couldn't or wouldn't trust the townies who she was PMing. i got freaked out when Utisz first proposed the PMs cuz it was almost like he was saying we couldn't trust that the cop would act alone for the townie's best interest. the whole PMing thing was suspicious-- i remember Utisz basically implying that the risk was too large for mafia and townies had nothing to lose, and he sounded so confident that i actually freaked out about that, thinking this could go horribly wrong. right now i really wanna what's going on with Utisz, personally. i guess i find his smugness annoying/misplaced and not indicative of townie-like priorities, but i tend to play this game in a way where i'm don't like to waste my votes and i'll go with what the majority of townies want. (i think this is reflected in my voting record so far.)

jigglypuff
11-10-2014, 04:07 PM
so holding it against somebody that they voted to lynch people who turned out to be townies doesn't necessarily point to anything
clarification-- holding it against somebody that they voted to lynch people who turned out to be townies isn't always right, and being wrong about votes doesn't necessarily point to mafia.

weirdly, this can be interpreted of a sort of defense of Utisz, whose voting has been weird. i'm saying right now though that i still think he needs to start making sense to the townies, if he is a townie, and prioritize clear communication.

LordLatch
11-10-2014, 04:34 PM
You need to double check your data. Heph voted GS in round one, and shouldn't be highlighted for 100% vote for townies.

Whoops, YOU are right. I need to update that. So Heph is not in the running based on my data.


This argument will be way more compelling after we find out if you're actually a townie.

You will find that out one way or another.

Polemarch
11-10-2014, 04:43 PM
I've been tied up most of the weekend.

I stand by my accusations of Utisz. Maybe I'm just being paranoid, or failing to see the brilliance in his defenses so far - but the apparent fact is that he tried to defend someone who turned out to be Mafia, then next turn voted to kill off a townie. His arguments are detached and theoretical; he seems to be speaking from an external position. Some of his posts are sufficiently long, eccentric and full of spoiler tags that I struggle to power through them. The block voting scheme never really made sense to me, in terms of how the randomization would occur, and when people started asking too many questions he dropped it. The PM coordination plan - I'll admit that COULD have helped us had it been well executed - but somehow it got fumbled to such an extent that I have trouble believing it wasn't tainted by the Mafia along the way. As he was ringleader of that plan, and the lack of useful information it seems to have provided us, I tend to think the obvious answer is the right one: he's Mafia.

I'll respond back with my opinions of other members when I have a free moment later.

lethe
11-10-2014, 05:11 PM
I don't have suspicions about most of you one way or the other. In my mind any one of you left could be vamp-aliens and anyone else who had particularly townie tells is dead.


I have been thinking about how to weigh the different "clues" and decided that it is easy for vamps to masquerade as townie with town-friendly talk. TALK doesn't hurt their game or goals, so they are free to SOUND supportive. Especially if they change their mind voting last minute. It's votes, nominations, and encouraging others to vote (by making a weak case or building an alternate bandwagon) that really matter. I give these clues the heaviest weight.

Less significant is posting frequency and refusing to state much on a position of voting or nominating. I can see how keeping your posting limited and away from actual voting and defense protects them from both attention and getting caught in a contradiction. I give these clues some weight, but not much.

I am also much more willing to trust clues I can point to and see rather than someone's hunch that a poster doesn't feel right in tone. Already I have seen many examples of you guys having wrong impressions of how vocal someone was against an idea (not a vote) and holding suspicions based on this "off feel" or inaccurate impression looking for evidence to support it.


So, based on what I consider "harder clues" I am primarily suspicious of P-O and will go ahead an vote for him now. I freely admit that almost everything he said has sounded very lucid, clean and pro-townie. But saying those things don't hurt the monsters, and his voting hasn't always followed what he said.


- He is one of only two others in suspicion who voted not for Granny in the first round. It's a small list. I think that is worth investigating/counts for something. I think its quite possible the mafia would like to build a second bandwagon for her, and a mafia would be better not being so vocal about it and just building momentum with a vote.

- He started early first day pushing to vote inactives, very vocally, then changed his mind quietly for anyone other than Granny later on He made the most cases to vote inactive/lurker (3) then when time came to vote he first tried to target Dirac (no reason given) then moved to Dr. Achir (no reason given) after he looked promising as an alternative.

- He did not spend much time or words defending or explaining these choices when asked next day (slight, of course) but it looked like he was trying to say as little as possible about it all. First post was just "it was a better strategy" when asked more he claimed it was good to build a second option. That's it.


Maybe he really was thinking building a second bandwagon was helpful. But he wasn't very vocal about that, certainly not as vocal or convincing as he was for voting inactive or voting Oso. I think between the two who voted Dr. that first day, P-Os behavior is more in line with monster. Of all the reasons for suspicions and clues or tells, so far these are the most firm and compelling I see.


Other ideas against others: I'm confused out by Nior's frequent vote change last round, and by his seemingly weak target of me. Heph has also targeting me for what seem like weak reasons.
I also had "off feels" by Heph and Polemarch's posting and how infrequent it is - but I admit some of that is because it is just not how I expected them to post. No reason it would be any more significant than the other players who lurk more.

lethe
11-10-2014, 05:21 PM
I think Utizs would be ideal to hind behind voting "not granny" first round because he is so loud and controversial. A monster would love to use him as a shield, and love to spend more time talking about who is in line with different ideas than who to vote for.

Also: Question:

Oso was suspicious of P-O and asked that if he dies and turns up townie, we would look at P-O. How much weight do we tend to give that in these games?

Utisz
11-10-2014, 05:43 PM
i got freaked out when Utisz first proposed the PMs cuz it was almost like he was saying we couldn't trust that the cop would act alone for the townie's best interest.

It wasn't that I didn't trust that the Cop could act alone, but the Cop would be so much more powerful if connected to, say, a Vigilante, as would the Vigilante. This was the main motivation: to connect the Townie special roles.


i guess i find his smugness annoying/misplaced and not indicative of townie-like priorities

:( Didn't mean to come across as smug. I've been trying hard to help the town ... maybe I should chill out a bit more.


but the apparent fact is that he tried to defend someone who turned out to be Mafia

It's reasonable to cast suspicions on me for that ... but I still feel that my reasons for pushing to vote for someone else at that time were logical: GS might come back to play (and she did pop up soon after the turn ended), we had zero information to suggest she was either townie or mafia (there was barely anything for Dr.Ahcir either but barely anything is better than nothing), it was better for the town to have multiple candidates (a landslide for an inactive generates little or no information). I guess the ironic thing is that I sort of hit myself in the face with that last one because the information sort of points at me for being the most vocal "defender" of Mafia. :)

If I were Mafia, being so conspicuous so early on trying to save a team-mate who wasn't even around would be really really stupid.


then next turn voted to kill off a townie. His arguments are detached and theoretical; he seems to be speaking from an external position.

I feel like I need to be 'cos this game makes my mind like the dogs in Up ...

http://i.imgur.com/E3gxs.gif

I try to stay detached to shut out the backing track of "squirrel squirrel" in my head.


Some of his posts are sufficiently long, eccentric and full of spoiler tags that I struggle to power through them. The block voting scheme never really made sense to me, in terms of how the randomization would occur, and when people started asking too many questions he dropped it.

I still think the scheme would be interesting for the Townies. Put another way, I think it would cause serious headaches for the Mafia: it would throw their usual distraction tactics. The randomisation is not so pretty in that it takes some element of control away from the Townies, but it's the randomisation that adds more information to every vote so it's a trade off. It's far from a perfect system but in the early stages with little to go off, I thought it would lead to a lot more voting information than lynching a lurker. (Actually I'd be curious to see how hardcore Mafia regulars propose to handle first round votes.)


The PM coordination plan - I'll admit that COULD have helped us had it been well executed - but somehow it got fumbled to such an extent that I have trouble believing it wasn't tainted by the Mafia along the way. As he was ringleader of that plan, and the lack of useful information it seems to have provided us, I tend to think the obvious answer is the right one: he's Mafia.

As far as I can see, the mess-up was apparently Slab misreading a PM from Dot. What I follow is that Dot lied to a few people about being a cop, including Slab, before the scheme even started. When the scheme started she PM'ed him to clarify saying "I'm a Townie not a Cop" or something to that effect. Slab got suspicious and mentioned two folks claimed "Cop" ... later he mentioned it was "more complicated than that". There's no way I could co-ordinate such a sequence of events to mess up the plan. I wasn't even involved other than sending Slab some strategy on how to handle PMs's. I didn't even know Slab was responding to PMs until other folks started talking about it.

And we don't know the legacy of the plan. Maybe the special roles are in contact together and the Cop is advising the Vigilante and so on. I don't know.

P-O
11-10-2014, 05:58 PM
- He is one of only two others in suspicion who voted not for Granny in the first round. It's a small list. I think that is worth investigating/counts for something. I think its quite possible the mafia would like to build a second bandwagon for her, and a mafia would be better not being so vocal about it and just building momentum with a vote.
Except utisz had just made the point that landslides don't help the townies as much as a close race.



- He started early first day pushing to vote inactives, very vocally, then changed his mind quietly for anyone other than Granny later on He made the most cases to vote inactive/lurker (3) then when time came to vote he first tried to target Dirac (no reason given) then moved to Dr. Achir (no reason given) after he looked promising as an alternative.
Wouldn't I be doing the opposite inconsistency if I were mafia? Wouldn't I be vocal about the benefits of moving people away from the mafia? For example: "Vote for the good players"?

We had like 12 people voting for one person and 3 for the other...on a longshot. The whole game is about information.

Not to mention the fact that Dr. Ahcir was and is playing in a very weird way. Do you disagree with this? The things he says are always pointless or misleading.

LordLatch
11-10-2014, 06:00 PM
The things he says are always pointless

I think they're fairly pointed when I'm pointing at you and your buddy Utsiz. Odd that your don't point at each other..

P-O
11-10-2014, 06:02 PM
I think they're fairly pointed when I'm pointing at you and your buddy Utsiz. Odd that your don't point at each other..

Yes, that's why I included the misleading caveat.

LordLatch
11-10-2014, 06:07 PM
Yes, that's why I included the misleading caveat.

Is that caveat meant to nullify my aim on Utisz or you?

lethe
11-10-2014, 06:12 PM
Oh! I have another question for everyone:

Assuming we have a cop, in contact with anyone or not, is it safe to assume that if the Cop had investigated a monster last night it would be would revealed now?
Would that be a wise move?

P-O
11-10-2014, 06:13 PM
It's in reference to that chart you made that has little use to anybody except, maybe yourself.

If you're going to make a chart of the voting record for us to read, do it in a way that's useful to us. Show the actual record. Instead you made one that presumes you're a townie(something we don't know) and leaves out half the votes people made because they're "irrelevant".

You took the opportunity to be actually useful and you squandered it in favor of attacking the ones who accused you.

P-O
11-10-2014, 06:14 PM
^- this is to Dr. Ahcir

lethe
11-10-2014, 06:19 PM
Wouldn't I be doing the opposite inconsistency if I were mafia? Wouldn't I be vocal about the benefits of moving people away from the mafia? For example: "Vote for the good players"?



"Vote for good players" was only my strategy when the monster wasn't on the option. It was never at risk or used for moving people away from monsters. We've been over this before. At first, when there were no clear lurkers, I suggested good players. You were all about the lurkers. Then, when we had lurkers, I moved lurker. When the lurker was a monster, you quietly changed your strategy with no explanation and let Utizs take all the attention. That is exactly what a monster would do.




And if you think/though Dr. Achir was playing in a "weird" way that first day, why didn't/don't you have anything to point to? It would have helped to try to get more votes split to make your case then. Or when I asked. You could point to him voting for himself, but that only happened AFTER you targeted him.

Utisz
11-10-2014, 06:28 PM
I think they're fairly pointed when I'm pointing at you and your buddy Utsiz. Odd that your don't point at each other..

That's 'cos I have no reason to point my finger at P-O. I tend to agree with almost everything he says. If he's Mafia he's pretty fucking pro.

LowIQLogan on the other hand: I think his recent suspicion of me is a bit of a turnaround from his previous stances. At one stage he agreed that my plan had a "game-breaking" advantage for the Town. I find it strange he's now suspicious of me.

LordLatch
11-10-2014, 06:31 PM
.. favor of attacking the ones who accused you.

Others voted for me and I didn't go after them- your comment means nothing and you didn't answer my question- nice side step by the way. Are you defending Utisz or yourself from me?

I think lethe said it best:

- He started early first day pushing to vote inactives, very vocally, then changed his mind quietly for anyone other than Granny later on He made the most cases to vote inactive/lurker (3) then when time came to vote he first tried to target Dirac (no reason given) then moved to Dr. Achir (no reason given) after he looked promising as an alternative.

It's doesn't mean I have a vendetta against you or Utisz. I just think the reasons given or not given(in your case) to point at me are unjustified and they were WAY too early to know anything.

It could be said, I'm going after people who lynched Oso. Oso's demise was out in left field. I thought that was totally unjustified and both my targets were knee deep in that.

P-O
11-10-2014, 06:33 PM
"Vote for good players" was only my strategy when the monster wasn't on the option. It was never at risk or used for moving people away from monsters. We've been over this before. At first, when there were no clear lurkers, I suggested good players. You were all about the lurkers. Then, when we had lurkers, I moved lurker. When the lurker was a monster, you quietly changed your strategy with no explanation and let Utizs take all the attention. That is exactly what a monster would do.
You keep saying i did it quietly; I remember doing it pretty soon after utisz made his point. It's not like i waited till everybody went to bed or something. Do you think i should have repeated what utisz said? It wouldn't really make a good trap if we keep repeating how it works.
Are you alternatively suggesting i'm trying to get Utisz lynched? I'm probably his biggest defender, as my friend Dr. Ahcir will tell you. I think Utisz is a townie.




And if you think/though Dr. Achir was playing in a "weird" way that first day, why didn't/don't you have anything to point to? It would have helped to try to get more votes split to make your case then. Or when I asked. You could point to him voting for himself, but that only happened AFTER you targeted him.
Well i said i agreed with utisz feeling at the time. But it's just a feeling; the only tool we have to investigate is to attack.

LordLatch
11-10-2014, 06:35 PM
If you're going to make a chart of the voting record for us to read, do it in a way that's useful to us.

Also if you remove me from the chart it's glaringly obvious that only you and Utisz in that sample didn't vote for Granny Smith so there is that. Do you want me to post a new chart showing that or can you envision my name gone?

P-O
11-10-2014, 06:38 PM
Also if you remove me from the chart it's glaringly obvious that only you and Utisz in that sample didn't vote for Granny Smith so there is that. Do you want me to post a new chart showing that or can you envision my name gone?

Yes, i understand the conclusion that you're interested in pushing. Everybody is aware of those facts already.

What I'm interested in is a summary of all of the data. That would be useful.

lethe
11-10-2014, 06:39 PM
by "quietly" I mean you stopped giving reasons or trying to sway anyone, you made a try for Dirac before any case was made for anyone else, and had no reasons of your own given or not for voting Dr. Achir.

Yes, I think if you were townie trying to get an alternative target you would have spoken up/tried harder more vocally. I think you are monster who had to change his strategy to vote lurker after it was obvious Granny was the target. SO you stopped pushing the lynch lurker strategy, joined whoever had a chance of diverting focus and was hiding behind Utisz to do it. I don't think you were suspicious of Dr.Achir, I think you would have jumped on anyone who had a chance of forming a new bandwagon (like trying to vote Dirac).

lethe
11-10-2014, 06:45 PM
I also think it is strange that you are acting like not voting for Granny isn't any kind of lead at all. Even Utisz admits that it is suspicious. Are you making the case that there is nothing significant about it? And that the other "clues" we have are more compelling?

P-O
11-10-2014, 06:50 PM
I don't think you were suspicious of Dr.Achir, I think you would have jumped on anyone who had a chance of forming a new bandwagon (like trying to vote Dirac).

Can i interest you in the Dr. Ahcir bandwagon, while we're on the subject?

P-O
11-10-2014, 06:51 PM
I also think it is strange that you are acting like not voting for Granny isn't any kind of lead at all. Even Utisz admits that it is suspicious. Are you making the case that there is nothing significant about it? And that the other "clues" we have are more compelling?
No, I haven't made that case. I've explained my position on utisz.

P-O
11-10-2014, 06:56 PM
Are you defending Utisz or yourself from me?
The whole town.

LordLatch
11-10-2014, 07:00 PM
The whole town.

That's a pretty good answer except how reasonable can one be if underlying all of it is wrath (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72370&viewfull=1#post72370)?

P-O
11-10-2014, 07:03 PM
That's a pretty good answer except how reasonable can one be if underlying all of it is wrath (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72370&viewfull=1#post72370)?

Haven't you ever read the bible?

LordLatch
11-10-2014, 07:06 PM
Haven't you ever read the bible?

You are God?

lethe
11-10-2014, 07:07 PM
Current Votes: ((right?)



Polemarch
(P-O cancelled)

Utizs
Polemarch
Dr.Ahcir

LowIQLogan
Utisz

P-O
lethe

P-O
11-10-2014, 07:07 PM
You are God?

I don't need to be god to defeat the devil.

lethe
11-10-2014, 07:12 PM
My mistake! Totally left out P-Os new vote!



Polemarch
(P-O cancelled)

Dr. Ahcir
P-O

Utizs
Polemarch
Dr.Ahcir

LowIQLogan
Utisz

P-O
lethe

LordLatch
11-10-2014, 07:15 PM
I don't need to be god to defeat the devil.

That wasn't an answer and you know it. You are skilled at dodging questions. An excellent tactic to keep yourself slippery.

P-O
11-10-2014, 07:22 PM
My mistake! Totally left out P-Os new vote!

Do you mind posting your opinions on the other players?

P-O
11-10-2014, 07:24 PM
That wasn't an answer and you know it. You are skilled at dodging questions. An excellent tactic to keep yourself slippery.
I noticed you didn't answer my stupid question either. So i guess we're even. Pointless discussion over.

Utisz
11-10-2014, 07:25 PM
by "quietly" I mean you stopped giving reasons or trying to sway anyone, you made a try for Dirac before any case was made for anyone else, and had no reasons of your own given or not for voting Dr. Achir.

Yes, I think if you were townie trying to get an alternative target you would have spoken up/tried harder more vocally. I think you are monster who had to change his strategy to vote lurker after it was obvious Granny was the target. SO you stopped pushing the lynch lurker strategy, joined whoever had a chance of diverting focus and was hiding behind Utisz to do it. I don't think you were suspicious of Dr.Achir, I think you would have jumped on anyone who had a chance of forming a new bandwagon (like trying to vote Dirac).


I also think it is strange that you are acting like not voting for Granny isn't any kind of lead at all. Even Utisz admits that it is suspicious. Are you making the case that there is nothing significant about it? And that the other "clues" we have are more compelling?

Just wanted to note that when P-O voted for Dr.Ahcir, it was already 10:2 in favour of Granny Smith ... the outcome was pretty clear. Only Granny Smith and Dr.Ahcir themselves had not sided one way or the other. While I grant it might be suspicious of me to try propose an alternative candidate (the reasons for which I've explained a few times), I don't think it's a strong argument that P-O was trying to save Granny Smith at that stage. She was clearly as dead as a door nail ... so clear was this in fact that the second candidate in the running Dr.Ahcir voted for himself shortly afterwards.

Hephaestus
11-10-2014, 07:31 PM
^
Stuff like this is what makes me wary of you Utisz. All of the math stuff could be complete BS and I wouldn't even know it.

Although the thought of bussing had crossed my mind too. I don't think LowIQLogan is the only one potentially doing it.

I can assert the math stuff isn't complete BS. It's accurate enough, but that doesn't make it not a smokescreen. It's just numbers and situations made to fit a story.

That said, if a Vamp is going to cannibalize another Vamp, going first is a more solid presentation. The problem is: if that was the ploy, it didn't even come close to working, which makes me wonder why Utisz has brought it up. Logan is no less suspicious than he was at the beginning. I'm not noting the tenor of "Logan was first to accuse a Vamp so he's all right" so I don't see the point of his argument. Other than to try to implicate Logan of course--but he's putting the cart well ahead of the horse.

Utisz, you're competing for my number one spot again.

Utisz
11-10-2014, 07:34 PM
On a side note, I have a really important rl deadline tonight (http://www.www2015.it/call-for-research-papers/). I get the impression I'll be one of the lead candidates and I'll do my best to defend myself and address any questions or criticism but I might be a bit quieter than usual (I guess some might think "thankfully" :P).

In the meantime, maybe someone can keep the opinions list up to date? I think it's in our interest to have one on record for everybody.

LordLatch
11-10-2014, 07:35 PM
Just wanted to note that when P-O voted for Dr.Ahcir, it was already 10:2 in favour of Granny Smith ... the outcome was pretty clear. Only Granny Smith and Dr.Ahcir themselves had not sided one way or the other. While I grant it might be suspicious of me to try propose an alternative candidate (the reasons for which I've explained a few times), I don't think it's a strong argument that P-O was trying to save Granny Smith at that stage. She was clearly as dead as a door nail ... so clear was this in fact that the second candidate in the running – Dr.Ahcir – voted for himself shortly afterwards.

I don't remember what was happening in meatspace during that time but when I voted for myself for lack of a better target I was not aware GS was under the gun. I had not read the whole thread.

My suicide was not a permanent situation to to a temporary problem- it was a cry for help. Furthermore, I admit I was a follower who jumped on the bandwagon as soon as I became aware of it's existence.

Utisz
11-10-2014, 07:38 PM
I can assert the math stuff isn't complete BS. It's accurate enough, but that doesn't make it not a smokescreen. It's just numbers and situations made to fit a story.

That said, if a Vamp is going to cannibalize another Vamp, going first is a more solid presentation. The problem is: if that was the ploy, it didn't even come close to working, which makes me wonder why Utisz has brought it up. Logan is no less suspicious than he was at the beginning. I'm not noting the tenor of "Logan was first to accuse a Vamp so he's all right" so I don't see the point of his argument. Other than to try to implicate Logan of course--but he's putting the cart well ahead of the horse.

Utisz, you're competing for my number one spot again.

I stand by my logic. I'm not saying it's concrete but a Mafioso interested in "bussing" (pushing a peer under the bus) had motivation to be the first to finger Granny Smith. If you consider the motivation for doing so stronger than for a regular Townie (which I do), then that person is more likely to be Mafia than the baseline. That's my argument in a nutshell.

lethe
11-10-2014, 07:39 PM
Do you mind posting your opinions on the other players?

I've already said most of it here:


I don't have suspicions about most of you one way or the other. In my mind any one of you left could be vamp-aliens and anyone else who had particularly townie tells is dead.


I have been thinking about how to weigh the different "clues" and decided that it is easy for vamps to masquerade as townie with town-friendly talk. TALK doesn't hurt their game or goals, so they are free to SOUND supportive. Especially if they change their mind voting last minute. It's votes, nominations, and encouraging others to vote (by making a weak case or building an alternate bandwagon) that really matter. I give these clues the heaviest weight.

Less significant is posting frequency and refusing to state much on a position of voting or nominating. I can see how keeping your posting limited and away from actual voting and defense protects them from both attention and getting caught in a contradiction. I give these clues some weight, but not much.

I am also much more willing to trust clues I can point to and see rather than someone's hunch that a poster doesn't feel right in tone. Already I have seen many examples of you guys having wrong impressions of how vocal someone was against an idea (not a vote) and holding suspicions based on this "off feel" or inaccurate impression looking for evidence to support it.


So, based on what I consider "harder clues" I am primarily suspicious of P-O and will go ahead an vote for him now. I freely admit that almost everything he said has sounded very lucid, clean and pro-townie. But saying those things don't hurt the monsters, and his voting hasn't always followed what he said.


- He is one of only two others in suspicion who voted not for Granny in the first round. It's a small list. I think that is worth investigating/counts for something. I think its quite possible the mafia would like to build a second bandwagon for her, and a mafia would be better not being so vocal about it and just building momentum with a vote.

- He started early first day pushing to vote inactives, very vocally, then changed his mind quietly for anyone other than Granny later on He made the most cases to vote inactive/lurker (3) then when time came to vote he first tried to target Dirac (no reason given) then moved to Dr. Achir (no reason given) after he looked promising as an alternative.

- He did not spend much time or words defending or explaining these choices when asked next day (slight, of course) but it looked like he was trying to say as little as possible about it all. First post was just "it was a better strategy" when asked more he claimed it was good to build a second option. That's it.


Maybe he really was thinking building a second bandwagon was helpful. But he wasn't very vocal about that, certainly not as vocal or convincing as he was for voting inactive or voting Oso. I think between the two who voted Dr. that first day, P-Os behavior is more in line with monster. Of all the reasons for suspicions and clues or tells, so far these are the most firm and compelling I see.


Other ideas against others: I'm confused out by Nior's frequent vote change last round, and by his seemingly weak target of me. Heph has also targeting me for what seem like weak reasons.
I also had "off feels" by Heph and Polemarch's posting and how infrequent it is - but I admit some of that is because it is just not how I expected them to post. No reason it would be any more significant than the other players who lurk more.

But if you prefer a short list, this is as much as I know to put any weight on:

Dirac: Quiet, too quiet?

LowIQLogan: unsure, may have clues in voting choices later

Utisz: one of two who are on the "not granny" list, but less likely of the two to be monster if I had to choose. can be hard to separate actual actions from opinions on schemes. I'm leaning about 15% toward monster side


Hephaestus - I'm leaning about 20-25% on monster side, due to posting frequency, timing, and weak accusations I don't understand the purpose of. Very soft evidence, may be biased.

Dr. Ahcir - unsure, don't actually have anything specific to point to one way or the other.

Noir: Changed votes, strange posting timing (could mean nothing), limited info, and some weak accusations. About 20% leaning towards monster

Polemarch: Similar feelings as Heph, 20-25% monster side, even quieter and more under the radar than I like

P-O: explained in depth. I feel the reasons for suspect are stronger than we have for anyone else, and of the two to avoid a granny vote he is most suspicious.

tele: quiet, and not many posts about voting reason, hasn't tried to sway anyone. not enough info, seems open to changing mind. don't know what that means.

Light Leak: also super quiet.

Utisz
11-10-2014, 07:40 PM
I don't remember what was happening in meatspace during that time but when I voted for myself for lack of a better target I was not aware GS was under the gun. I had not read the whole thread.

My suicide was not a permanent situation to to a temporary problem- it was a cry for help. Furthermore, I admit I was a follower who jumped on the bandwagon as soon as I became aware of it's existence.

I got the impression you voted for yourself just 'cos it made no difference and you wanted to make a point by doing that. In any case though, my main point was that when P-O voted for you, Granny Smith was already dead ... it wasn't really about you voting for yourself.

LordLatch
11-10-2014, 07:45 PM
I got the impression you voted for yourself just 'cos it made no difference and you wanted to make a point by doing that. In any case though, my main point was that when P-O voted for you, Granny Smith was already dead ... it wasn't really about you voting for yourself.

No one seems to know why he targeted me. I never thought anyone voted for me because I voted for myself.

P-O
11-10-2014, 08:06 PM
Oh! I have another question for everyone:

Assuming we have a cop, in contact with anyone or not, is it safe to assume that if the Cop had investigated a monster last night it would be would revealed now?
Would that be a wise move?

I would view it as a good trade in general, because as a cop, you never know when you're going to get killed by the mafia. Best to get the info out there...but some people just want to survive till the end, so they won't necessarily out themselves.
Obviously though, it's more likely that they found a townie with their investigation.

lethe
11-10-2014, 08:08 PM
Current Vote:

Polemarch
(P-O cancelled)

Dr. Ahcir
P-O

Utizs
Polemarch
Dr.Ahcir

LowIQLogan
Utisz

P-O
lethe

Links to opinions so far:

Utisz (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72323&viewfull=1#post72323)
Hephaestus (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72338&viewfull=1#post72338)
Light Leak (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72351&viewfull=1#post72351)
P-O (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72351&viewfull=1#post72351)
tele (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72429&viewfull=1#post72429)
Noir (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72433&viewfull=1#post72433)
lethe (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-%28Pt-3%29&p=72521&viewfull=1#post72521)
Dr. Ahcir (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-%28Pt-3%29&p=72461&viewfull=1#post72461)

Waiting on ...

Dirac
LowIQLogan Stated alternate here (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-%28Pt-3%29&p=72441#post72441)
Polemarch

LordLatch
11-10-2014, 08:16 PM
I got the impression you voted for yourself just 'cos it made no difference and you wanted to make a point by doing that.

No I saw that you and P-O were on me and he suggested I vote myself to help the town out. I was thinking if the tide was headed in my direction, I'd help it come quickly. I was unaware most everyone had already voted GS. I didn't mean it as a stunt and after all the useless words the event has generated, I would never do it again. I assumed I was getting votes because I mistakenly thought there were 2 mafia which still doesn't make sense to me why that matters.

Dirac
11-10-2014, 08:16 PM
Sorry I've not been as active lately. IRL and everything. I have the evening kinda off so will try to be useful. I'll write my impressions such as they are. If I've misremembered anything please tell me. If I had to go fact-check this I wouldn't have time to write as much.


LowIQLogan Was a dick to slab and it wouldn't surprise me if that was a contributing factor to the Slab outing himself as the child, and the PM debacle. Actually, I don't remember if he started with the dicking before or after Slab came out. Anyway, I doubt that it was a deliberate mafia plan but it wasn't helpful. Also was very keen for all the PM details to be made public
Utisz Seems to be consistently causing inter-townie drama, which I can't see is particularly a good thing. Having thought about the follies a bit more I think they weren't as bad as I first though, but I don't think that necessarily gets him the all clear. The very fact that we've spent so much time discussing these essentially peripheral matters has stopped us from being able to properly figure anything out. I don't really know how to read this, could be either. I feel like when we find out if he's mafia or townie I'll think to myself "I knew that all along!" because there are parts of me that get strong mafia vibe, and parts that get strong townie vibe. Tricky.
Light Leak Pretty much flying totally under the radar, but IIRC that's how she played last time and she was townie then. I think that's just her personality. It does make it a hard for me to fully trust her though.
lethe Seems fairly townie to me. Asking a lot of questions, probing people's stories.
Hephaestus Unsure about Heph he posts a fair bit for some reason I feel like I haven't got any read on him. I do seem to remember that he was really keen on killing Dot, even when she looked so certain to be a townie. That seems kind of crazy to me - the way we did it meant that the mafia had to kill her and use up a turn doing it. The more I think about this the more I think that the mafia must have been praying for a Dot lynching.
Dr. Ahcir Pretty sure he's townie. Either that or a brilliant actor. He smells exactly how I felt when I played this for the first time :P
Noir The lists have been pretty helpful but I can't remember him doing all that much of note. He did make me doubt my initial strong suspicions of Utisz, it remains to be seen whether that works in his favour or not. Also we were masons together so that makes me lean Townie for no good reason lol. I have to watch out for that.
Polemarch Has been fairly quiet and hasn't offered a whole lot up. I think he was near the beginning of the GS vote and even though Utisz has his dice thing I still think that works in your favour. Not much of a read though - neutral.
P-O I keep getting mafia vibes from P-O. He was a PM recipient but was reluctant to share any info about it when it came out. This would be a townie trait under normal circumstances, but the whole thing was such a clusterfuck that personally I thought we needed clarity so that we could move on from it. I felt like we spent most of Day 2 dealing with the fallout of PM-gate and P-O probably could have helped more than he did. He comes across as very careful, which also raises my suspicions too.
tele Has been very quiet. Leaning slightly townie but it's hard to say.


I suspect that probably one of the mafia is one of the more vocal ones, and the other will be found among the quiets. (Did we decide for certain there are two left?)

Hephaestus
11-10-2014, 08:21 PM
Polemarch

My reasoning is this: he's still alive. That's really suspicious. If he's townie, I'd go after Utisz next, but currently, Utisz is the more active of the two, and is prodding the most, so I'm inclined to go after the quiet ones. I'm also attracted to the irony that doing so is what Polemarch would if he weren't himself.


Polemarch
(P-O cancelled)
Hephaestus

Utizs
Polemarch
Dr.Ahcir

LowIQLogan
Utisz

P-O
lethe

Hephaestus
11-10-2014, 08:29 PM
Hephaestus Unsure about Heph he posts a fair bit for some reason I feel like I haven't got any read on him. I do seem to remember that he was really keen on killing Dot, even when she looked so certain to be a townie. That seems kind of crazy to me - the way we did it meant that the mafia had to kill her and use up a turn doing it. The more I think about this the more I think that the mafia must have been praying for a Dot lynching.


Borrowed meta-game theory (http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Lynch_All_Liars) from a source I think is effectively neutral. The outcome is in-line in the end. Based on the available evidence, there was no urgent need to for the Vamps to kill Dot other than to discredit people who were voting for her. She couldn't be left alive by the town because other than lynching or someone outing themselves, there was no clear way to be sure. She wasn't much of threat. The only other reason I can think of for the Vamps to kill her, was because they thought she might be the Detective, pretending to not be the Detective in a double bluff.

Hephaestus
11-10-2014, 08:33 PM
She wasn't much of threat.

Clarification: She wasn't any more of a threat than any of the other obvious threats. In retrospect, Oso was a lousy second pick (other than suspicious behavior) because lynching him was the same as lynching Dot (especially when he turned out townie). We should lynch outside the circle.

This means not lynching P-O btw. If he were a Vamp, wouldn't they have killed the Detective instead of Dot? Who is more important? The self-proclaimed mouthpiece? Or the person who can actually identify Vamps?

Dirac
11-10-2014, 08:33 PM
Dirac: He's generally been under the radar or drunk. I was surprised that he suspected me in the last round just because I would have expected him to acknowledge that the Slab scheme was a good 'un and I was surprised he didn't really bother to consider my defence to Noir's point like Noir did. Admittedly this is less suspicious now that we know Osito is townie.

I mean, I did say this:


My suspicions of Utisz really aren't as strong though after he defended himself quite well against Noir's attack.
But I went on to explain that I was still voting for you, in large part to try save Oso, who I believed more. I also quoted Oso when he said:



Utisz hasn't been providing anything helpful despite talking a lot of complicated stuff that just muddies the waters. He defended Granny Smith early on too, which shouldn't be overlooked.
And I've been thinking on that some more, as outlined above.





Dirac: Similar to others. Not much of a read. I don't remember what his position on killing dot was, but if it was in favor, I'd be more suspicious of him, because i remember that he was one of the people that spoke to slab about it. (If i remember correctly) Has expressed a desire to kill me.

I wasn't in favour of killing Dot:

Also fwiw it seems pretty unlikely to me at this point that Dot is mafia. None of this feels like the play of a mafia tbh.

lethe
11-10-2014, 08:35 PM
I'd kill Dot first if I were a monster in the PM secret club

P-O
11-10-2014, 08:37 PM
I'd kill Dot first if I were a monster in the PM secret club

Explain why

Dirac
11-10-2014, 08:38 PM
Borrowed meta-game theory (http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Lynch_All_Liars) from a source I think is effectively neutral. The outcome is in-line in the end. Based on the available evidence, there was no urgent need to for the Vamps to kill Dot other than to discredit people who were voting for her. She couldn't be left alive by the town because other than lynching or someone outing themselves, there was no clear way to be sure. She wasn't much of threat. The only other reason I can think of for the Vamps to kill her, was because they thought she might be the Detective, pretending to not be the Detective in a double bluff.

I just don't think this was a good idea in our situation though. We seemed to be mostly agreed that Dot was a townie, what's more, the play she made could have worked well if it hadn't gone mental. Considering this game is such a race against time I don't think we have the time to be lynching townies. It seems to me that anyone is a better pick than a near-confirmed townie. Plus, Oso was a bad second choice as I said in that thread.

There was maybe no urgent need to kill Dot, but I do miss her now that she's gone tbh. Of all the people they could have killed I'm annoyed they got her, because I felt like we could trust her. Trust is hard to come by in this game and it would be a good mafia play to get rid of it. Same reason Slab got shanked I guess.

Light Leak
11-10-2014, 08:44 PM
I think it's relevant to point out that Dot had expressed concern last round via PM that Utisz had been fishing for information about the identity of the cop. Care to explain this Utisz?

lethe
11-10-2014, 08:45 PM
For some of the same reasons Dot was thinking Oso was trying to protect himself.

I don't actually know how much each of the PM clubs members know about the identity of the Cop. They may all know for sure or just have a better idea. If the mob doesn't know for sure then Dot is the best hit.

Even if the mod guy does know for sure, Dot is still useful hit.

As it stands, it looks like all the PMers are automatically kind of trusting each other. AT the very least they are discussing things, potentially sharing info and have influence on each other. I wouldn't want to waste that. If the Cop died on the first night, that would all be ruined. Waiting even a single night brings enough doubt as to how the monsters figured it out. And the longer they trusted each other, the more likely they are to continue trusting.

Come on - imagine if not Dot, but the cop died last night. Wouldn't this whole convo be targeted against remaining PM group members? How many of them would there be who were sure of their own identity? Big risk for the monster.

But if cop dies tonight, what will tomorrow's convo look like? will it all be targeted against the PM group? I think not. The more people in the PM group, the more people to hide behind.

P-O
11-10-2014, 08:45 PM
wouldn't they have killed the Detective instead of Dot? Who is more important? The self-proclaimed mouthpiece? Or the person who can actually identify Vamps?
Well, so far as I know, the detective isn't in contact with anybody. The deal was, dot told us the detective's wishes. The only reason I trusted dot was because i spoke to slab who verified that there was actually only one claimant to the throne of cop.

Dot was the link and that's why they killed dot.

P-O
11-10-2014, 08:46 PM
Dot was the link and that's why they killed dot.
And that's why it was so important that dot NOT be outed.

Dirac
11-10-2014, 08:47 PM
As it stands, it looks like all the PMers are automatically kind of trusting each other. AT the very least they are discussing things, potentially sharing info and have influence on each other. I wouldn't want to waste that. If the Cop died on the first night, that would all be ruined.
I don't think is really true btw. Well, if it is I'm not invited anymore.

Hephaestus
11-10-2014, 08:48 PM
But if cop dies tonight, what will tomorrow's convo look like? will it all be targeted against the PM group? I think not. The more people in the PM group, the more people to hide behind.
I disagree. If the cop dies tonight, the PM group will by my primary targets.

lethe
11-10-2014, 08:50 PM
In fact, if the monsters DON'T kill someone from the PM secret club tonight, I would find that highly suspicious.

P-O
11-10-2014, 08:55 PM
Come on - imagine if not Dot, but the cop died last night. Wouldn't this whole convo be targeted against remaining PM group members? How many of them would there be who were sure of their own identity? Big risk for the monster.
Maybe. If the cop died, we'd lynch dot first, no?
then we go through the list of people who dot contacted. It's a risky play, but letting the cop get more turns is also risky.



But if cop dies tonight, what will tomorrow's convo look like? will it all be targeted against the PM group? I think not. The more people in the PM group, the more people to hide behind.
What would the convo look like?

Dirac
11-10-2014, 08:57 PM
When we talk out loud about how the mafia play my head goes mental. Because then the mafia know what we expect of them, but they could use that knowledge to do something different than they were going to do. But now me saying this means the mafia now also have to watch out for doing something to put us off, because we know they might do that... and so on ad infinitum.

My head.

Hephaestus
11-10-2014, 09:02 PM
Maybe. If the cop died, we'd lynch dot first, no?
then we go through the list of people who dot contacted. It's a risky play, but letting the cop get more turns is also risky.

More importantly: it's riskier. For them.

Light Leak
11-10-2014, 09:09 PM
Well, so far as I know, the detective isn't in contact with anybody. The deal was, dot told us the detective's wishes. The only reason I trusted dot was because i spoke to slab who verified that there was actually only one claimant to the throne of cop.

Dot was the link and that's why they killed dot.

I'm also not really sure how much the cop trusts any of us. The original plan was Dot was to pose as a cop and then if she died in the night one of us who had been PMed would have to be mafia, so we all must have seemed suspicious for one reason or another. Probably not much incentive for the cop to contact any of us I imagine unless we become the subjects of his investigation and turn up clean.

P-O
11-10-2014, 09:11 PM
When we talk out loud about how the mafia play my head goes mental. Because then the mafia know what we expect of them, but they could use that knowledge to do something different than they were going to do. But now me saying this means the mafia now also have to watch out for doing something to put us off, because we know they might do that... and so on ad infinitum.

My head.

It'd be an interesting experiment for all of us to give the mafia ultimatums. like : if the mafia kills X, i'll vote to lynch Y.

lethe
11-10-2014, 09:16 PM
If what Dot said is true, and was confirmed by someone else, Slab went and PMd a bunch of people who the "two cops" were; her and the real Cop. I didn't get one from him, I can't confirm that.

Dot also messaged a bunch of people, I don't know what she said, she messaged me to tell me she wasn't the cop, which leads me to believe even she didn't know how many people heard about the two cops.

After Dot's confession, ALL those people Slab messaged know the identity of the cop. Do we know how many people Slab messaged? Did they all come out?


The question is how sure are they of each other? IS the cop investigating secret PM club members to narrow down the suspects when he finally dies? Or is he investigating outside members and telling everyone in the group who knows about him already?

Why aren't PM club members telling us what the cop told them? They don't want the innocent become monster targets as being confirmed humans?

Wouldn't asking for a list of who everybody trusts now reveal who the PM group trusts? Acting as a way to get the results of the cop's investigation?

Light Leak
11-10-2014, 09:26 PM
If what Dot said is true, and was confirmed by someone else, Slab went and PMd a bunch of people who the "two cops" were; her and the real Cop. I didn't get one from him, I can't confirm that.

I'm going to have to look back and see if Dot actually said this. I don't recall her saying this.

Slab did send me a PM to tell me that two people had claimed to be cops - but only after I PMed him first to verify if Dot was really the cop as she was claiming to be. Slab didn't tell me who the other person was. Only that he wasn't sure if I could trust it because two people had made that claim.

I'm not sure that Slab was just randomly PMing people and giving out names of who the cop may be. If he did, that's really stupid.

P-O
11-10-2014, 09:32 PM
Wouldn't asking for a list of who everybody trusts now reveal who the PM group trusts? Acting as a way to get the results of the cop's investigation?

Well, at the time the thread was pretty dead...And sharing opinions on people is generally a good thing.

Utisz
11-10-2014, 09:34 PM
I think it's relevant to point out that Dot had expressed concern last round via PM that Utisz had been fishing for information about the identity of the cop. Care to explain this Utisz?

Heh, well I think it was the other way 'round: she was fishing me out.

I PM'ed her first since I thought I could figure out who the Cop was or narrow it down to two or three folks ... I wanted her to know that revealing so much information was not a good idea. I put together the pieces I had collected and sent them to her and told her not to reply. If I was right about the Cop and I showed her how I figured out, I thought it might be like a warning to her to quit with the PM games. I pointed out that if I was right ... if I could figure it out ... it would be even easier for the Mafia. She replied back claiming to trust me and she claimed a particular player was the Cop but I'm pretty sure she was lying ... that she was fishing me out rather than the other way around.

In a round about sort of way, I now feel I have a good idea who the Cop probably is and it wasn't who Dot said.

lethe
11-10-2014, 09:41 PM
http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1789-Mafia-II-Space-Vampires-Day-2&p=71822&viewfull=1#post71822 was a little weird, then this:

Dot claiming Slab spilled the beans about the cop identity to her (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1789-Mafia-II-Space-Vampires-Day-2/page17&p=71886#post71886)
Tele saying Slab was spilling the beans of the identity of the two cops to other members (that she got both names) (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1789-Mafia-II-Space-Vampires-Day-2&p=71889&viewfull=1#post71889)

P-O
11-10-2014, 09:56 PM
So Dirac knows who the cop is, yes? It's vaguely worded.

lethe
11-10-2014, 09:58 PM
Sounds like Dirac also claiming to have heard who the cop was. (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1789-Mafia-II-Space-Vampires-Day-2&p=71831&viewfull=1#post71831)


I was under the assumption that some, if not all, the PM secret club knew the identity of the Cop. Looks like at least some of them do. You guys seriously don't know which ones know the Cop identity? Isn't that the whole point of being suspicious of the Pm secret club when the cop dies?

And if club members already know the Cop identity, wouldn't he be PMing them all his investigation results? It's not like the results would be new information to the monsters, but it would help/be the point of setting up a secret club in the first place!

Dirac
11-10-2014, 09:59 PM
So Dirac knows who the cop is, yes? It's vaguely worded.
If I do, you do. The name I've been given was also given to you in a PM that we both received... I hope this isn't you trying to say I have special knowledge of the supposed cop so that if the cop dies it's my fault.

lethe
11-10-2014, 10:00 PM
Here is a question: why hide the fact that you know the identity of the cop?

Dirac
11-10-2014, 10:02 PM
Here is a question: why hide the fact that you know the identity of the cop?
I don't think I ever really hid that. I said it out loud in the thread from pretty near the beginning. I'm also not really that sure that it is the cop. I've never actually heard from the supposed cop.

lethe
11-10-2014, 10:06 PM
I don't think I ever really hid that. I said it out loud in the thread from pretty near the beginning. I'm also not really that sure that it is the cop. I've never actually heard from the supposed cop.

Well - (and I don't see how this can hurt to be public knowledge) - who spilled the supposed cop identity beans to you? Tele claims it was Slab.

Strategy Questions to all: Shouldn't we have a clear list of who "knows" the cop identity? Shouldn't the cop be PMing these people?

Dirac
11-10-2014, 10:08 PM
Well - (and I don't see how this can hurt to be public knowledge) - who spilled the supposed cop identity beans to you? Tele claims it was Slab.

Strategy Questions to all: Shouldn't we have a clear list of who "knows" the cop identity? Shouldn't the cop be PMing these people?
Slab was the first person I heard it from, but not the only one. Should the "cop" trust these people? Also I'm still not wholly convinced that the name I have is actually the cop.

Light Leak
11-10-2014, 10:09 PM
I was under the assumption that some, if not all, the PM secret club knew the identity of the Cop. Looks like at least some of them do. You guys seriously don't know which ones know the Cop identity? Isn't that the whole point of being suspicious of the Pm secret club when the cop dies?

And if club members already know the Cop identity, wouldn't he be PMing them all his investigation results? It's not like the results would be new information to the monsters, but it would help/be the point of setting up a secret club in the first place!


Dot said that the point of "the club" was that she was using herself as bait basically and pretending to be the cop to see if any of us killed her. The true cop apparently knew who she had PMed so if Dot was killed by mafia that night one of us would have to be mafia. That was the point of it. But the plan got messed up so there was no real point to it after that. Those of us where were PMed were supposed to believe that Dot was the cop, but she had to reveal that she wasn't because people were freaking out about the whole two cop thing.

lethe
11-10-2014, 10:11 PM
Trust them with what, exactly? His name is already given out. I assume he KNOWS his name is already spilled.

Real cop or not, he knows his name is on the list. He is a target if he is real or not. Telling monsters who humans/monsters are doesn't give them any more information than they already have.

We should know who knows the cop identity so we know who to suspect out of the PM group when the cop dies.

lethe
11-10-2014, 10:14 PM
Dot said that the point of "the club" was that she was using herself as bait basically and pretending to be the cop to see if any of us killed her. The true cop apparently knew who she had PMed so if Dot was killed by mafia that night one of us would have to be mafia. That was the point of it. But the plan got messed up so there was no real point to it after that. Those of us where were PMed were supposed to believe that Dot was the cop, but she had to reveal that she wasn't because people were freaking out about the whole two cop thing.

except according to tele and dirac, both real and fake cop names were spilled.

Dirac
11-10-2014, 10:15 PM
except according to tele and dirac, both real and fake cop names were spilled.
I think that wasn't part of the plan. A list is probably a good idea.

Light Leak
11-10-2014, 10:16 PM
^
Maybe they were to some people.

Light Leak
11-10-2014, 10:17 PM
the ^ was directed at lethe

jigglypuff
11-10-2014, 10:18 PM
Trust them with what, exactly? His name is already given out. I assume he KNOWS his name is already spilled.

Real cop or not, he knows his name is on the list. He is a target if he is real or not. Telling monsters who humans/monsters are doesn't give them any more information than they already have.

We should know who knows the cop identity so we know who to suspect out of the PM group when the cop dies.
um i remember you saying you received PMs, so you'd be in that "club" too. i don't understand why you're saying all these things.

lethe
11-10-2014, 10:19 PM
^
Maybe they were to some people.


We should know who those people are. Even if it was a purposeful Red Herring/Bait cop name given out by Slab, (which I doubt, since Dot apparently got the name of the real cop from Slab over some confusion) then we can't reel in the bait when it's bitten if we don't know who was privy to that bait.

P-O
11-10-2014, 10:20 PM
Jesus dirac, Think for a minute.

P-O
11-10-2014, 10:22 PM
Strategy Questions to all: Shouldn't we have a clear list of who "knows" the cop identity? Shouldn't the cop be PMing these people?

No. We shouldn't. We discussed it on day 2. It was explained clearly why that's a bad idea. Are you guys dense? Did utisz not just explain 10 minutes ago why it's a bad idea?

lethe
11-10-2014, 10:24 PM
um i remember you saying you received PMs, so you'd be in that "club" too. i don't understand why you're saying all these things.


As I said before, I Wasn't trusted for information or invited to the Secret PM club. Here is where I describe my email and I, too, was wondering if I should out the person's name:

Lol, I didn't get a pm from a person telling me there were a cop, but one telling me that they were not a cop or anything.

Also look at Dot's description of the plan and the PM list (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1789-Mafia-II-Space-Vampires-Day-2&p=71900&viewfull=1#post71900)

P-O
11-10-2014, 10:25 PM
Why do you guys insist on making the cop more vulnerable? Do you think the mafia are going to kill all of us on one turn? They can't do that! Stop! STOP

jigglypuff
11-10-2014, 10:31 PM
lethe so your issue is that you weren't trusted? is that why you insist on organizing information for the mafia to see?

do you think somebody's just supposed to trust you? that's not how this game works.

Dirac
11-10-2014, 10:32 PM
Ok I'm shutting up. I accidentally stopped thinking my posts over.

Light Leak
11-10-2014, 10:32 PM
As I said before, I Wasn't trusted for information or invited to the Secret PM club. Here is where I describe my email and I, too, was wondering if I should out the person's name:

You keep referring to it as "the secret PM club." That's not at all what it was like. Originally Dot PMed us all individually claiming to be the cop, and asking for help (at least that what she said in the PM she sent to me.) I had no clue that she had PMed others until people started posting about it.

I didn't trust Dot, and was PMing her trying to find out what I could to see if I could figure out if I could trust her before I decided if I was going to out her. It's not like we were all PMing each other coming up with secret plans or whatnot. She sent group PMs later once it was out that she had only been pretending mostly to just explain herself.

Plus the fact that Dot was trying to bait us all by pretending to be a cop and seeing if she was killed doesn't exactly lead me to believe that she trusted any of us all that much.

LowIQLogan
11-10-2014, 10:32 PM
It seems like the people in the PM group don't KNOW who the cop is. It might've been implied. Or it might've simply been dot trying to lie about the real cop in an effort to damage control her failed plan. Either way we know who the PM group is and since the cop didn't die last turn its clear that either the PM group doesn't know who the cop is or there are no mafia in the pm group (unlikely IMO but possible nonetheless) I think it's more reasonable that the cop was better at concealing their identity from the PM group than Lethe suspects, that was a fundamental aspect for dots plan to even have a chance of working after all.

Utisz claims to have figured it out. If he is correct than the cop should trust utisz now because the mafia didn't kill the cop last turn. This assumes utisz proved he knew who the cop was by PM to dot or to the cop before the night phase mafia kill.

If he was incorrect well I guess that's nbd and he could just be a townie who's not as smart as he thinks he is or he could be a posturing mafia hoping to push the cop to revealing themselves.

lethe
11-10-2014, 10:35 PM
lethe so your issue is that you weren't trusted? is that why you insist on organizing information for the mafia to see?

do you think somebody's just supposed to trust you? that's not how this game works.


uuuuh, no, I don't care to be trusted. Lol, I though tit was ridiculous for Dot to message me when I first received it.

My point is how can we know who to suspect when the cop dies if we don't know who was told the cop identity?
Also, what does the cop have to lose by sharing his investigation results with someone who already knows his name?

lethe
11-10-2014, 10:37 PM
Please explain to me what use the monsters can make by knowing who has heard the name of the real cop?

Dirac
11-10-2014, 10:37 PM
uuuuh, no, I don't care to be trusted. Lol, I though tit was ridiculous for Dot to message me when I first received it.

My point is how can we know who to suspect when the cop dies if we don't know who was told the cop identity?
Also, what does the cop have to lose by sharing his investigation results with someone who already knows his name?
The people know "know the name" do not actually know who the cop is. Admitting you were the cop to somebody you don't trust is dumb. The cop should only reveal to somebody they have good reason to trust, or I guess, publicly, when the time is right.

lethe
11-10-2014, 10:41 PM
He is a target to those people regardless, and if not as true cop, then as cop mouthpiece like Dot was trying to be.
I doubt keeping silence moves the target off his back.

lethe
11-10-2014, 10:42 PM
And, if he dies this turn, real or not, we should suspect the list of people who were given his name.

jigglypuff
11-10-2014, 10:44 PM
uuuuh, no, I don't care to be trusted. Lol, I though tit was ridiculous for Dot to message me when I first received it.

My point is how can we know who to suspect when the cop dies if we don't know who was told the cop identity?
Also, what does the cop have to lose by sharing his investigation results with someone who already knows his name?
the cop has everything to lose by trusting someone with information they don't trust???

LowIQLogan
11-10-2014, 10:46 PM
Dot was given the name of the cop. Now we can assume that the next townie the cop investigated was given the name. It does not follow that anyone else was told the name of the cop.

lethe
11-10-2014, 10:48 PM
like what, exactly, tele?

will that make him a target for mafia? If that person is mafia he already is a target so no change.

will it tell the mafia who the humans and monsters are? the mafia already know that!

AT worse it will tell the mafia who has been investigated, but at the same time it ensures that the results of that investigation will get out even if the cop dies. And give clues to the others who know if that person suddenly gets targeted for lynching, AND protects the confirmed townie from lynching by the others in the group who aren't monsters.

jigglypuff
11-10-2014, 10:49 PM
btw lethe i pretty much got the same PM as you. i talked to slab and slab gave me more info, but theres no way to confirm anything he said. i have to trust that other townies know more than me, and are more trusted, and it makes sense that they wouldn't go around revealing everything to everybody. i don't get why you don't seem to get that.

lethe
11-10-2014, 10:52 PM
Let me explain it another way:

We have a list already of people who were contacted, but we don't know how many of them were given the name of second cop claimant by Slab.
Tele and Dirac claim to have this. So far, if the cop/bait cop dies tonight, they are the only ones we can suspect. That means if there was another person who got the info the way Dot claimed she got hers, they are removed from suspicion.

I cannot imagine how knowing who heard the cops second name from Slab could help the monsters.

lethe
11-10-2014, 10:54 PM
I'm also assuming that the real cop knows who has his name via Slab.

I'm not asking for the cops name, just who supposedly knows it so we know who to target when that name comes up dead in the night.
I can't imagine how knowing who got a cop name could help the monsters.

P-O
11-10-2014, 10:54 PM
Personal limitations aside, let's get back to who ought to be lynched.

Dirac
11-10-2014, 10:57 PM
I still am not sure what is wrong with lethe's plan tbh but whatever.

I think Utisz should be lynched tonight.

lethe
11-10-2014, 10:57 PM
If it's so obvious, P-O, please explain to me what the mafia has to gain by hearing who off the list has received a second name from Slab?

How does that help them target anyone?

I have explained what us humans have to gain by knowing that.

P-O
11-10-2014, 11:00 PM
The mafias gain information about who is trusted, and how to break and control the structure. On the other hand, the humans don't actually get any benefit. Your argument is not correct.

Hephaestus
11-10-2014, 11:01 PM
Strategy Questions to all: Shouldn't we have a clear list of who "knows" the cop identity? Shouldn't the cop be PMing these people?
I don't think so. That's just doing gruntwork for the Vamps, assuming they aren't already in the know. The only time someone should come forward is if the cop is giving them a definite target. Then it becomes a matter of confirming. If the target is a townie, we kill the person who claimed to be a cop. Until there is a Vamp target then it does no one any good to increase the number of people in that circle.

The circle is already too big as it it. To the best of our knowledge, the cop is certain of at most one other person in the circle, and mostly sure of the people who know but haven't outed or had them killed yet.

Hephaestus
11-10-2014, 11:08 PM
I cannot imagine how knowing who heard the cops second name from Slab could help the monsters.
I'm sorry, but you aren't being very imaginative.

There is a bucket with everyone's name in it. Let's call it the Vamp buffet list. They remove the chits with their own names on it. The cop is somewhere in what remains. As people affirm they know who the cop is, those chits get removed. It increases the likelihood of their random stabbings working.

They know who the monsters are, sure. But they don't know who the powered monster hunters are.

lethe
11-10-2014, 11:11 PM
I'm sorry, but you aren't being very imaginative.

There is a bucket with everyone's name in it. Let's call it the Vamp buffet list. They remove the chits with their own names on it. The cop is somewhere in what remains. As people affirm they know who the cop is, those chits get removed. It increases the likelihood of their random stabbings working.

They know who the monsters are, sure. But they don't know who the powered monster hunters are.

The cop could easily claim to also have had a second name from Slab, or he could not. They don't know.

But for us, it lowers the list of suspects (the same PM list you want to target when the cop dies)

Dirac
11-10-2014, 11:12 PM
I've got to go to bed guys but I think it's a shame we spent so long talking meta again. We need to drill down into the actual 'stuff' more I think.

P-O
11-10-2014, 11:14 PM
Lethe insists on finding out the details about the cop, yet again.

P-O
11-10-2014, 11:15 PM
I've got to go to bed guys but I think it's a shame we spent so long talking meta again. We need to drill down into the actual 'stuff' more I think.

I think you shouldn't vote utisz. And should vote dr. Ahcir instead.

lethe
11-10-2014, 11:18 PM
Polemarch
(P-O cancelled)
Hephaestus

Dr. Ahcir
P-O

Utizs
Polemarch
Dr.Ahcir
Dirac

LowIQLogan
Utisz

P-O
lethe




Links to opinions so far:

Utisz (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72323&viewfull=1#post72323)
Hephaestus (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72338&viewfull=1#post72338)
Light Leak (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72351&viewfull=1#post72351)
P-O (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72351&viewfull=1#post72351)
tele (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72429&viewfull=1#post72429)
Noir (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72433&viewfull=1#post72433)
lethe (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-%28Pt-3%29&p=72521&viewfull=1#post72521)
Dr. Ahcir (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-%28Pt-3%29&p=72461&viewfull=1#post72461)
Dirac (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-%28Pt-3%29&p=72535&viewfull=1#post72535)

Waiting on ...


LowIQLogan Stated alternate here (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-%28Pt-3%29&p=72441#post72441)
Polemarch

LowIQLogan
11-10-2014, 11:19 PM
btw lethe i pretty much got the same PM as you. i talked to slab and slab gave me more info, but theres no way to confirm anything he said. i have to trust that other townies know more than me, and are more trusted, and it makes sense that they wouldn't go around revealing everything to everybody. i don't get why you don't seem to get that.
It's very reasonable for townies to not trust this plan we don't participate in. Oso didn't trust it and he got killed by the people supporting it and he was townie. This can be used against you because so far the PM groups plan has resulted in the death of the townies dot and Oso. It's very reasonable and townie to assume your group is being manipulated by the mafia and to want the information that could lead to the mafia before it dies with the cop. Lethe we have insurance against this because the mafia can only kill one at a time and at the very least both the cop and the townie they investigated this turn should know that information.

lethe
11-10-2014, 11:19 PM
Lethe insists on finding out the details about the cop, yet again.

When was the first time?

P-O
11-10-2014, 11:22 PM
When was the first time?

Day 2?

lethe
11-10-2014, 11:28 PM
You mean when I was asking Dot to confirm what she was already confessing and pointed out about what she wasn't saying?
Or when I refused to out her as the one who PMd me?
Or when I convinced others we shouldn't kill her?
Or when I so lengthily questioned why Oso was a target?

P-O
11-10-2014, 11:33 PM
You mean when I was asking Dot to confirm what she was already confessing and pointed out about what she wasn't saying?

That's an interesting interpretation of what you were doing. More like asking her to elaborate in detail about what she had already said. Seemed to me that you were getting as much info out of her as you could.

jigglypuff
11-10-2014, 11:34 PM
LowIQLogan
and it's reasonable for townies to not want any information accessible to the mafia and to not trust any information-fishing from non-trusted players, whether this happens in the threads or through PMs. it is extremely townie-like to prioritize safety for the cop to ensure they get more turns. so all this info-fishing here is pretty much suspicious to me.

lethe
11-10-2014, 11:36 PM
I only asked a few questions, if you read it, then she explained, then I said, "It sounds like you are saying this, is that true?" or a "you really want me to believe "x"?"
Then she answered, sometimes with a "yes, I've already said that"

jigglypuff
11-10-2014, 11:36 PM
^ Logan is trying to contact people through PMs right now.

lethe
11-10-2014, 11:44 PM
That's an interesting interpretation of what you were doing. More like asking her to elaborate in detail about what she had already said. Seemed to me that you were getting as much info out of her as you could.


I wasn't asking her for more info, like who she had pmed, etc.

I was asking her if it as her idea, if anyone had lied about being contacted, if she was claiming that she was the one sending the PMs, what her story was and what she was claiming her story was, because it seemed pretty hard to believe. Blaming everything on Slab, claiming things were a mistake, etc. Essentially I was asking, "Is this really what you are saying?"

If you go through my posts (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/search.php?searchid=440438&pp=&page=2) it's pretty obvious I was confirming her story and trying to catch her in a lie or prover her usefulness rather than pumping her for information about who the cop was.

P-O
11-10-2014, 11:50 PM
Maybe... Anyway, I think this discussion is not fruitful to have today. I'd like for people to focus on who they're going to lynch

Polemarch
11-11-2014, 12:48 AM
You keep referring to it as "the secret PM club."

It may not have been a club, but it seems that way to those of us who weren't part of it. Ever since the discussion of PMs began, I've been second guessing everyone who was involved, as to whether there's a complicated metagame being played that I haven't been told about. There were some sudden shifts in tone and attitude that suggested ongoing coordination, but it's hard for me to know if that coordination has been tainted by a Mafia member who gained an unwarranted position of trust from a special. For me, deciphering the PM discussion is a lot like putting together a puzzle with half the pieces missing, and without knowing what the picture's supposed to be.


Plus the fact that Dot was trying to bait us all by pretending to be a cop and seeing if she was killed doesn't exactly lead me to believe that she trusted any of us all that much.

Rightly so. At that point in the game, what basis would she have to trust anyone?

LordLatch
11-11-2014, 01:28 AM
It may not have been a club, but it seems that way to those of us who weren't part of it.

Yup.

Kyuri
11-11-2014, 02:02 AM
lol I will have to name the next Day thread, Mafia II: The PM Fuck-ups Saga, Part 4

(not the least of which is my own)

Reminder that you have just a bit over 3.5 hours.

P-O
11-11-2014, 02:48 AM
...

We're still waiting on your opinions of the townies. You've built a weak case against usits but what about everybody else.

lethe
11-11-2014, 03:01 AM
Polemarch
(P-O cancelled)
Hephaestus

Dr. Ahcir
P-O

Utizs
Polemarch
Dr.Ahcir
Dirac

LowIQLogan
Utisz

P-O
lethe




Links to opinions so far:

Utisz (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72323&viewfull=1#post72323)
Hephaestus (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72338&viewfull=1#post72338)
Light Leak (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72351&viewfull=1#post72351)
P-O (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72351&viewfull=1#post72351)
tele (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72429&viewfull=1#post72429)
Noir (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-(Pt-3)&p=72433&viewfull=1#post72433)
lethe (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-%28Pt-3%29&p=72521&viewfull=1#post72521)
Dr. Ahcir (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-%28Pt-3%29&p=72461&viewfull=1#post72461)
Dirac (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-%28Pt-3%29&p=72535&viewfull=1#post72535)

Waiting on ...


LowIQLogan Stated alternate here (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?1795-Vampaliens-II-Space-Mafia-%28Pt-3%29&p=72441#post72441)
Polemarch

Still need votes from:
Light Leak
tele
Noir
LowIQLogan

Light Leak
11-11-2014, 03:17 AM
It may not have been a club, but it seems that way to those of us who weren't part of it.
Understandable. What else is anyone who didn't get a PM supposed to think from the outside?

That's just not how it was. But it was confusing on the inside too... maybe not as confusing but still confusing. Going from trying to figure out if Dot is actually the cop to her changing her story and saying that she was only pretending to be the cop. And then finding out we were really part of some failed plan to see if any of us were Vamps. I didn't know what to do with that info. I didn't even know how true any of it was.


Rightly so. At that point in the game, what basis would she have to trust anyone?
She wouldn't have any, but she was the one sending PMs to people.

lethe
11-11-2014, 03:44 AM
4 players, enough on their own to decide the lynching, all waiting until the last moment to vote....

Light Leak
11-11-2014, 03:48 AM
I'm going to go with Polemarch. Utisz and Polemarch are both about equal as top suspects in my mind... but Utisz is doing a better job of defending himself.

Tally:

Polemarch
(P-O cancelled)
Hephaestus
Light Leak

Dr. Ahcir
P-O

Utizs
Polemarch
Dr.Ahcir
Dirac

LowIQLogan
Utisz

P-O
lethe

Polemarch
11-11-2014, 03:59 AM
Dirac - I can't tell if he's lolololdrukknk or putting an act on, but whatever. It's conceivable in the short term only. He reads to me as "idk". His responses feel generally townie to me, but my intuition in this game is poor. I don't really know. Suspicion: Low

Dr. Ahcir - Voting for himself is still inexplicable to me. I'm not sure why anyone would do that, or what it's supposed to mean. As a double bluff it doesn't work. I'm inclined to assume this is a weird noob type move, because if you're actually Mafia it's quite suicidal. The way Utisz went against Dr. Ahcir early felt scripted to me, and I couldn't figure out specifically why Dr. Ahcir would have been the main target of anything. If the goal was to obtain information, I'm stumped on what it netted us, other than one strange play. I'm still suspicious of that one play though. Suspicion: Medium

Hephaestus - Reads to me as completely townie. Heph has had a tendency to overthink/overexplain permutations of possibilities in past games, and I think it's gotten him unwarranted suspicion, because there's always someone there to pick apart some imprecisely worded/formatted sentence to indict you, a trick that is easily exploited by the Mafia as well as mistakenly overthought by everyone else. In our paranoia, we tend to punish players for seeming "crafty", so it's a bad play in this game to overdo that. It's obvious Heph has learned that, because this game (and last game too IIRC) he's generally stuck to a pattern of coherency over completeness. Does this tell us anything? No. I've done the exact same thing, for basically the same reason. So Heph, when you repeatedly point out how suspicious it is that "Polemarch is still alive", just keep in mind that I'm generally fighting the same stigma in this game that you are. Suspicion: Low

lethe - Even though she voted against me last round, I don't have any logical basis to find her suspicious. I don't have much more to add on her, I guess her play has just blended in to me. Suspicion: Low

I'll go through the rest later when I have a moment to think/type/analyze some more.

Still voting Utisz for reasons previously stated.

Noir
11-11-2014, 04:15 AM
Utisz because a) clarity and b) we need to lynch someone.

P-O
11-11-2014, 04:19 AM
Geez, you guys have to be kidding. What exactly is the clarity you're going to get?

P-O
11-11-2014, 04:21 AM
Nobody's position is as muddled as dr. Ahcir. He's done this on purpose. It's a noob act.

Noir
11-11-2014, 04:23 AM
Oh and just to clarify any perceived "vote-jumping" on my part last round, the vote was 6-5 Osito when I switched, with two in the wings. That means that by switching I made the vote 7-4 Osito, which precluded a tie, even if the two odd votes out decided to switch last minute. I also told everyone I would do this:


I think you're probably in the clear unless LowIQLogan and lethe decide to throw you under the bus. I'm sticking to my guns mostly because I don't suspect anyone else more at the moment. I'll be on in the morning. If it's a choice between a tie or Osito, I'll choose Osito.

Noir
11-11-2014, 04:28 AM
Geez, you guys have to be kidding. What exactly is the clarity you're going to get?

What clarity are we going to get by lynching the noob? At the very least, killing Utisz will put an end to the various Folly controversies, which the entire 1st (and half of the 2nd) day's discussions revolved around. I have no strong suspects. Today has been uniquely unproductive.

Noir
11-11-2014, 04:31 AM
Nobody's position is as muddled as dr. Ahcir. He's done this on purpose. It's a noob act.

If you think it's an act then Slab deserved a fucking Oscar. Sometimes noobs are just noobs.

lethe
11-11-2014, 04:31 AM
True. Good point. I think you pointing at me early caught my eye to heavily. Thanks.

Also... are you sure you guys aren't just pointing at utizs because he has so much to say/suggest?

I won't defend him too heavily as that first day voting does matter to me.

jigglypuff
11-11-2014, 04:31 AM
i kinda suspect Noir cuz i don't think anybody's ever suspected him ever. and idk what that says.

P-O
11-11-2014, 04:33 AM
What clarity are we going to get by lynching the noob? At the very least, killing Utisz will put an end to the various Folly controversies, which the entire 1st (and half of the 2nd) day's discussions revolved around. I have no strong suspects. Today has been uniquely unproductive.

It's the same rationale as we went with on the first day. No strong suspects, so go with the ones who are not helpful as townies. Ahcir certainly isn't helpful... and it has the upshot that dr. Ahcir is not a potential cop.

jigglypuff
11-11-2014, 04:35 AM
4 players, enough on their own to decide the lynching, all waiting until the last moment to vote....
it's hard cuz i'm really, really not sure.

i'll vote between those in the top 2, generally, but there's a problem when i don't actually have a feeling that either is mafia.

yeah, i suspected Utisz. Polemarch hasn't really been on my radar much, for some reason. i really don't know.

Utisz
11-11-2014, 04:35 AM
Well since I know I'm a townie, even though I now suspect LowIQLogan more than Polemarch, I'll switch to Polemarch.

Motivated by self-preservation, yep. But self-preservation is the core responsibility of every townie.

Anyone else who thinks I'm innocent ... erm ... any hope of switching to Polemarch? Hope is a thing with feathers after all.

Noir
11-11-2014, 04:37 AM
Hold on people I'll "administrate."

jigglypuff
11-11-2014, 04:37 AM
It's the same rationale as we went with on the first day. No strong suspects, so go with the ones who are not helpful as townies. Ahcir certainly isn't helpful... and it has the upshot that dr. Ahcir is not a potential cop.
i also understand this reasoning for voting dr. ahcir, but right now it doesn't look like he has a chance of being lynched unless several people change votes.

Utisz
11-11-2014, 04:38 AM
Tally:

Polemarch (3)
(P-O cancelled)
Hephaestus
Light Leak
Utisz

Dr. Ahcir (1)
P-O

Utisz (4)
Polemarch
Dr.Ahcir
Dirac
Noir

LowIQLogan (0)
Utisz

P-O (1)
lethe

P-O
11-11-2014, 04:40 AM
Alright.... Polemarch

Light Leak
11-11-2014, 04:42 AM
so now we're tied...

LordLatch
11-11-2014, 04:43 AM
Alright.... Polemarch

I knew you were going to do that.

P-O
11-11-2014, 04:43 AM
As opposed to?

P-O
11-11-2014, 04:45 AM
I'm counting on lethe to go polemarch. I think she trusts utisz more than him.

LordLatch
11-11-2014, 04:45 AM
As opposed to?

I don't know if your change counts though- it was 2 minutes too late.

LordLatch
11-11-2014, 04:45 AM
Whoops I mean 4 mintutes.

Light Leak
11-11-2014, 04:46 AM
Um... we still have another 40 some minutes to go I think.

jigglypuff
11-11-2014, 04:49 AM
k, i'm voting polemarch. i don't strongly suspect either, so this is hard.

i'll be watching this thread closely, though, so see if anybody changes their vote during the last minutes.

LordLatch
11-11-2014, 04:49 AM
Yup you're right- 10:36 PM

lethe
11-11-2014, 04:51 AM
it's hard cuz i'm really, really not sure.

i'll vote between those in the top 2, generally, but there's a problem when i don't actually have a feeling that either is mafia.

yeah, i suspected Utisz. Polemarch hasn't really been on my radar much, for some reason. i really don't know.

Vote for someone you think is monster, give others time to see the chances and switch votes.

jigglypuff
11-11-2014, 04:51 AM
feel free correct this if it's wrong:

Polemarch (5)
Hephaestus
Light Leak
Utisz
P-O
tele

Utisz (4)
Polemarch
Dr.Ahcir
Dirac
Noir

P-O (1)
lethe

LordLatch
11-11-2014, 04:52 AM
I don't suspect Polemarch.

Light Leak
11-11-2014, 04:52 AM
logan could still turn up and vote too....

jigglypuff
11-11-2014, 04:53 AM
Vote for someone you think is monster, give others time to see the chances and switch votes.
i don't think anything of those two people. i have little feelings sometimes, but those come and go. that's how i feel about almost everybody, though.

yeah.

Noir
11-11-2014, 04:55 AM
tele that's right. I just double-checked.

lethe
11-11-2014, 04:56 AM
Honestly, it is so slimy monster to frequently wait until everyone had decided then vote whoever is winning with the disclaimer, "I don't want to choose thus one, but everyone else is..."

It's like refusing to give us any vote info but still holding the power to sway it to your purpose. Especially if you wait so long that others don't have much chance to change the outcome of your deciding vote.

(Squinty eyes)

jigglypuff
11-11-2014, 04:57 AM
logan could still turn up and vote too....
i'm guessing he probably wants to be last, to be the tie-breaker vote.

ugh.

Noir
11-11-2014, 04:58 AM
i kinda suspect Noir cuz i don't think anybody's ever suspected him ever. and idk what that says.

Haha YASSS!! I am the anti-Polemarch.

Polemarch
11-11-2014, 04:59 AM
Alright.... Polemarch

Based on what? At least provide some reasoning.

Concrete arguments have been presented against Utisz, and instead of engaging with any of them, you just bold my name without any backup...

I realize I haven't been as participatory as I typically would, but I've had IRL obligations. If you do kill me off, it will be a wasted vote that yields very little information. There are strong reasons to consider Utisz. All I've done is be right twice.

jigglypuff
11-11-2014, 05:00 AM
Honestly, it is so slimy monster to frequently wait until everyone had decided then vote whoever is winning with the disclaimer, "I don't want to choose thus one, but everyone else is..."

It's like refusing to give us any vote info but still holding the power to sway it to your purpose. Especially if you wait so long that others don't have much chance to change the outcome of your deciding vote.

(Squinty eyes)
yeah, i know. at the time there's that possibility that somebody coming along at the last second actually knows something (for whose benefit, idk). so it's really hard to say anything of anybody.

oh gawd the uncertainty.

jigglypuff
11-11-2014, 05:00 AM
^ at the same time*

Noir
11-11-2014, 05:02 AM
35 minutes by my count.

P-O
11-11-2014, 05:05 AM
Based on what? At least provide some reasoning.

Concrete arguments have been presented against Utisz, and instead of engaging with any of them, you just bold my name without any backup...

I realize I haven't been as participatory as I typically would, but I've had IRL obligations. If you do kill me off, it will be a wasted vote that yields very little information. There are strong reasons to consider Utisz. All I've done is be right twice.

I've given my opinions on both of you at the beginning of the thread. I don't highly suspect either of you, but your absence stands out in particular... and utisz has been helpful. His voting record makes sense. The defense of GS as being too popular was correct. The argument against oso was stronger than the argument against you last round.
His arguments make sense. and his actions follow rationally from them. I don't want to vote either of you. I want Dr. Ahcir.

Light Leak
11-11-2014, 05:07 AM
Ugh... now I just feel very uneasy about how easily Utisz got others to switch votes away from him...

LordLatch
11-11-2014, 05:09 AM
I want Dr. Ahcir.

Awww, and he wants you too- tomorrow.

Noir
11-11-2014, 05:09 AM
^That's exactly how I felt yesterday. I'm not switching today.

jigglypuff
11-11-2014, 05:09 AM
Ugh... now I just feel very uneasy about how easily Utisz got others to switch votes away from him...
same :/

lethe
11-11-2014, 05:10 AM
I didn't see why you have to limit your vote to the top two people. Better to vote for someone you suspect than give weight against this you don't. Maybe you aren't alone?

Unable to get P-0, I will go Utizs.

I think voting not granny is more compelling evidence than not posting as much as I expect. Plus, if it was Utizs, I could stop chasing P O

Polemarch
11-11-2014, 05:11 AM
I've given my opinions on both of you at the beginning of the thread. I don't highly suspect either of you, but your absence stands out in particular... and utisz has been helpful. His voting record makes sense. The defense of GS as being too popular was correct. The argument against oso was stronger than the argument against you last round.
His arguments make sense. and his actions follow rationally from them. I don't want to vote either of you. I want Dr. Ahcir.

I have work responsibilities, and can't post very much during the work day. This weekend I was in Wisconsin for about 80% of the weekend.

Utisz's arguments against me are mainly "Polemarch is suspicious because Polemarch is suspicious, vote for him because I don't want to die, the reason I campaigned to defend the outed Mafia and voted in favor of a townie is because I'm a paranoid townie doing my best to win MBMB, my folly schemes are such follies because I'm modest about my failures, but hey guys look over here I have another theory about something else I'd like to discuss in length. Oh wait, there's a vote? And I'm the leading suspect? No, pls vote Polemarch he's suspicious because Polemarch."

Light Leak
11-11-2014, 05:13 AM
I'm switching to Utisz.

jigglypuff
11-11-2014, 05:15 AM
i kinda feel like switching, too. i've been more suspicious of Utisz than Polemarch but the problem is i'm not sure i trust myself in this game. wtf.

Noir
11-11-2014, 05:17 AM
Polemarch(3)
P-O
Hephaestus
Light Leak
Utisz
P-O

Utisz(6)
Polemarch
Dr Ahcir
Dirac
Noir
lethe
Light Leak

Dr Ahcir
P-O

LowIQLogan
Utisz

jigglypuff
11-11-2014, 05:17 AM
Polemarch (4)
Hephaestus
Utisz
P-O
tele

Utisz (6)
Polemarch
Dr.Ahcir
Dirac
Noir
Light Leak
lethe

Noir
11-11-2014, 05:18 AM
Oh wait tele add your vote.

Noir
11-11-2014, 05:18 AM
touche

lethe
11-11-2014, 05:19 AM
Polemarch (4)
Hephaestus
Utisz
P-O
tele

Utisz (6)
Polemarch
Dr.Ahcir
Dirac
Noir
Light Leak
lethe

P-O
11-11-2014, 05:21 AM
.../

If my guess that Dr. Ahcir is mafia is right, that means utisz is probably not mafia.

Noir
11-11-2014, 05:21 AM
^It's lethe->Light Leak not Light Leak->lethe.

Utisz
11-11-2014, 05:22 AM
Okay well since I'm pretty much dead now by my calculations, it's time to tell you all that I'm the Cop. Slab was in on this ... or at least I told him I was a Cop ... it's not clear to me if he believed me or not but he told me Dot was also claiming.

Anyways, not much time. I had two lookups. I confirmed Dot as vanilla townie (or Godfather ... but yep vanilla townie was the safer bet) in Round 1. Not much info there. But good news! Last round, I thought I'd try someone who wasn't really suspected to often and found out that LowIQLogan is Mafia. Unfortunately I couldn't get much steam up behind that particular bandwagon as hard as I tried to find something to pin on him.

So maybe after all the folly stuff and all the tl;dr posts, it didn't work out so bad. You guys should be down to one Mafia after Logan. If I had to make a guess, I'd go with Polemarch. ;)

jigglypuff
11-11-2014, 05:23 AM
oh god what now

Noir
11-11-2014, 05:23 AM
LowIQLogan

jigglypuff
11-11-2014, 05:24 AM
*sigh* i change my vote to Utisz.

Noir
11-11-2014, 05:24 AM
MAKE THE MAFIA KILL HIM AND LYNCH LOGAN NOW