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Blorg
06-28-2015, 07:14 PM
Only bolded votes count.
You can change your vote at any time before the day phase ends.
The sun will set exactly 36 hours after the time of this post. Regardless of whether or not I announce nightfall exactly 36 hours after the time of the post. If the sun set at 12:00 and I only got around to announcing nightfall at 12:01, no, that doesn't change the fact that the sun set at 12:00.
If you die during the day, stop talking immediately when the sun sets.
Read my posts.
any of the roles from this list (http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Category:Normal_Roles) may be in play.
Do not quote or refer to my PM's.
Don't cheat.
If you feel an overwhelming compulsion to do something earth-shatteringly clever and sneaky that has even the slightest potential to be considered cheating, ask me about it first via PM.
In the case of a tie, there will be no death during the day.


Player List:

prometheus, vanilla townie, killed Night 1
GnarlFox
stigmatica, vanilla townie, killed Night 3
Light Leak
Buddha
Utisz*, mafia, killed Day 3
*Tony, aberrant townie, killed Day 3
ferrus, town cop, killed Day 2
Hephaestus
lethe
MacGuffin, vanilla townie, killed Day 1
P-O
OrionzRevenge
LowIQLogan, vanilla townie, killed Night 2
Sappho
ent
helium

summary (http://www.princeton.edu/~sucharit/~mafia/introduction.htm)

There are 2 teams: mafia and townies. Mafiosos want to kill townies; townies want to kill mafiosos. You'll be told whether you're a townie or mafia in a pm at the start of the game. If you're a townie, you won't know which of the other players are townies and which ones are mafia. If you're mafia, you'll be told (via pm) who the other mafiosos and townies are.

The game is divided into "days" (48 hours each) and "nights" (12 hours each, or until all night actions are received).

Every day, one player can die. During this time, every player - mafia and townie - has the option of discussing suspects/brewing paranoia in the game thread and then bolding the name of his/her prime target, the person they most want to kill. At the end of the day, the person whose name has been bolded by the most players dies (they drift away to the graveyard thread and can't comment on the game anymore). Then, I will publicly reveal the real identity of that person. If they turn out to be a mafioso, yay for the townies. If you're a townie, you'll be shooting in the dark for the first couple of rounds, because there won't be many clues about who the mafiosos are, but slip-ups and insights will accumulate in the thread over time.

Every night, the townies have to go completely silent and cover their eyes, and the mafia gets to kill a townie. They discuss and vote in pm's (and then send the mod (me) the name of the agreed-upon townie). This has to happen by the end of the night. In the next day phase, I will reveal the name of the murdered townie, and discussion in the game thread can resume, with this new evidence in hand.

There are also special roles, which complicate the game. If you have a special role, you'll be told so in the first pm.

The game ends when the townies manage to kill all the mafia, or when the mafia outnumbers the townies.

Sappho
06-28-2015, 07:40 PM
NOOOO STIGGY NOOOOOOOOOO

OrionzRevenge
06-28-2015, 07:47 PM
RIP Stiggy. You tried to bring a little levity back into the game.

I'm more and more surprised to wake up in this virtual role within our virtual life.

Almost surprised too that the Townies haven't taken out a contract to kill me so that maybe someone else may get a chance to speak besides myself and Heph.


I'm going to try to step back a little and let others speak.

I'm also going to try to remember that, be it a brilliant insight or reckless luck fueled by maniacal delusions, I shouldn't see conspiracy everywhere I turn with regard to ferrus v Utisz

Hephaestus

Fitz
06-28-2015, 08:23 PM
Why heph and not lethe?

Sappho
06-28-2015, 08:44 PM
Why heph and not lethe?

It might just be a personal matter for OzR.

I am still undecided between those two.

Buddha
06-28-2015, 08:48 PM
I'll vote for hephaestus or helium if either of those gain sufficient traction. I'm more in favor of voting against helium since he has more strikes against him in my book, and he's been silent since day 2 -- which makes him dead weight for the townies, regardless of which side he's on.

Sappho
06-28-2015, 08:51 PM
I'm more in favor of voting against helium since (...) he's been silent since day 2 -- which makes him dead weight for the townies, regardless of which side he's on.

Yes, but – am I the only one thinking that "dead weight" might just help us win against the mafia? If anything, we can attempt to outnumber them...

Fitz
06-28-2015, 08:59 PM
Next game should just have an auto purge feature. Meet x-posts per day or the reaper gets you.

Buddha
06-28-2015, 09:19 PM
Yes, but – am I the only one thinking that "dead weight" might just help us win against the mafia? If anything, we can attempt to outnumber them...

I don't know if you're the only one, but I don't agree with your thinking. All you're saying, really, substantially is: "if he is townie it would be bad for townies to kill one of their own". True. But in the absence of knowing for certain that anyone is mafia that just goes for all of us.

OrionzRevenge
06-28-2015, 09:25 PM
Why heph and not @lethe (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/member.php?u=116)?

Well,

A: I do think he is the biggest Known risk to our dwindling Townies lives.

But

B: I have the Vibe, since the ferrus Bomb, that at the Secret Decoder Ring meetings they'd mange some way to get him to back off. So I think we would be killing a Townie.

I told Heph this much yesterday and asked him to prove he is my better at this game. I have also tried to be less confrontational with him. But he simply stepped it up a notch or 10 indicating that this goes way beyond the game.

I would really love to see you Bold lethe's name. And others indict who they think might be a better shot at bagging a Maf as well. And offer your reasons why you think we should move in that direction.

I am also very interested in hearing replies and 3rd. party comments on the inquisitions I made of the surviving killers of ferrus.
Sappho

I'll try not to be so much into my bombastic and caustic trolling role with you, but the BS M indicates to me that you were being dodgy about the most important thing I wanted you to respond to. The BS M served me well detecting spin with Utisz and that's the reason I really focusing on you as suspect of being Mafia.

Just after ferrus dropped the Bomb on the gallows, you spoke with him.

Knowing that the cop would have one investigation under his belt.
Knowing ferrus had voted Utisz early in the day


You said:


If you're a cop indeed, Utisz will definitely be under increased suspicion.

Even factoring in for your impeccable refinement, I can not believe a Townie would utter anything other than Utisz was a Dead Man Walking. (Or something to that affect).

If others think it a reasonable thing to say, all things considered, please advise me.

Light Leak
06-28-2015, 09:31 PM
As much as I hate to say it. I'm thinking Heph needs to go.

But I have to admit that I wouldn't mind seeing OrZ go, simply because he's been annoying the crap out of me.

OrionzRevenge
06-28-2015, 09:39 PM
As much as I hate to say it. I'm thinking Heph needs to go.

But I have to admit that I wouldn't mind seeing OrZ go, simply because he's been annoying the crap out of me.

Reporting absolutely no response on the BatShit Meter.
:p

Light Leak
06-28-2015, 09:45 PM
Yes, but am I the only one thinking that "dead weight" might just help us win against the mafia? If anything, we can attempt to outnumber them...

Not really if he never shows up to vote. Outnumbering them isn't much help if we all don't use our votes.

Sappho
06-28-2015, 09:47 PM
Sappho

I'll try not to be so much into my bombastic and caustic trolling role with you, but the BS M indicates to me that you were being dodgy about the most important thing I wanted you to respond to. The BS M served me well detecting spin with Utisz and that's the reason I really focusing on you as suspect of being Mafia.
First and foremost, thank you for the civil tone. Much appreciated :)


Just after ferrus dropped the Bomb on the gallows, you spoke with him.
Why, yes, but it was about a matter that didn't have anything to do with this game.


Even factoring in for your impeccable refinement, I can not believe a Townie would utter anything other than Utisz was a Dead Man Walking. (Or something to that affect).

If others think it a reasonable thing to say, all things considered, please advise me.
First of all, I'm just as much a newbie at this game as you, playing for the first time, and quite a few nuances of strategy still go over my head. Besides, in the past three or four days, I've been working almost non-stop in real life, so I admit I didn't read certain elaborate rambles in the previous day thread too closely not closely enough, anyway, to see the connection between Utisz and ferrus prior to our accidental cop lynching. That, and the previously mentioned tendency towards understatement what more can I say.

Sappho
06-28-2015, 09:50 PM
Not really if he never shows up to vote. Outnumbering them isn't much help if we all don't use our votes.

But surely it is more advantageous to keep potential cannon fodder around for the mafia's nightly killings, instead of lynching a fellow townie?

GnarlFox
06-28-2015, 09:51 PM
I'll vote for hephaestus or helium if either of those gain sufficient traction. I'm more in favor of voting against helium since he has more strikes against him in my book, and he's been silent since day 2 -- which makes him dead weight for the townies, regardless of which side he's on.
I'm currently leaning towards voting for helium because of the implications of assuming he was a townie. If we didn't do anything and he turned up Mafia, we'd only have ourselves to blame.


Yes, but am I the only one thinking that "dead weight" might just help us win against the mafia? If anything, we can attempt to outnumber them...
I don't know. While I'd like to believe that helium is just a disinterested townie, it could be a strategy to fly under the radar. I would think that a Mafia member would never play this way but that may be exactly what he wants us to think. If we kept him alive and he ended up being Mafia, what then? Like I've said previously, it might make more sense to go after quiet players later into the game than at the beginning. At the beginning there could be a variety of reasons not to vote for quiet players, many of them real. As things progress, quiet players have the most to gain by not getting involved with skirmishes or offering strategies. Basically they get a free pass as far as any argument goes. Don't get me wrong, there is a good chance that he's a townie but can we take the risk that he's not? He's a loose end that needs to be taken care of and if not now, when? Here is where you have a point though. If he is just dead weight, it may be better to just ignore the issue for now. It is a thing that needs to be dealt with at some point though. It would just be too much of a gimme win if he turned up Mafia.

Light Leak
06-28-2015, 09:55 PM
But surely it is more advantageous to keep potential cannon fodder around for the mafia's nightly killings, instead of lynching a fellow townie?

I think a silent player would be the last target for a night lynching.... so not much advantage there either.

Light Leak
06-28-2015, 09:57 PM
or a night kill, or whatever it's called.

GnarlFox
06-28-2015, 09:58 PM
But surely it is more advantageous to keep potential cannon fodder around for the mafia's nightly killings, instead of lynching a fellow townie?

Let's assume that helium isn't a Mafia member. Do you think that the Mafia would kill off someone who isn't participating? I don't think they would use this strategy. If we think of the long game it might make sense to keep him around because if he's a townie, we could win with him. If he is a Mafia member though, we just gave them a free pass to the endgame. That's why I'm kind of on the fence. I'm not sure which is better but it is something that needs to be talked about.

Light Leak
06-28-2015, 10:10 PM
If others think it a reasonable thing to say, all things considered, please advise me.

I don't think questioning whether ferrus was actually the cop was unreasonable at that point. It could have been a lie.

OrionzRevenge
06-28-2015, 10:54 PM
I don't think questioning whether ferrus was actually the cop was unreasonable at that point. It could have been a lie.

That's not what happened. Sappho fully qualified that she knew it was pending confirmation.
The question is:

Being fully cognizant that it will have to be confirmed first, is it reasonable for a Townie to say the part after the comma?


If you're a cop indeed, Utisz will definitely be under increased suspicion.

Utisz got me to flip off you by saying MacG didn't clearly indicate he was innocent while waiting on the Gallows.

I mean, I can't see how a Townie would say/think anything other than: When this is confirmed, Utisz is dead!
or something to that effect.

Real cops always want to get people talking right after a violation of some sort because that is when they are most likely to give themselves away because of the disorientation, and maybe denial of the reality.

I'm confident the mafs didn't even pause to think that ferrus was the cop, even after I let it slip, in one of the too many chats with Heph, trying to save ferrus.

I think they were all in shocked

Shock--Denial

What happened during ferrus-v-Utisz, as it relates to Sappho, I think can be explained by 2 or three personal animosities at the time. And certainly a perceived beef i was acting out on Utisz.

But I'm having a hard time with that statement.

P-O
06-28-2015, 11:14 PM
Thoughts on the popular people:

I don't think OR is maf. He's a noob and I don't think he has the skill to pull off that kind of play. His desperation seems genuine.

I think heph might have the skill to pull off that kind of play... But I'm on the fence.

Lethe didn't participate at all on day 3. Normally in these games she takes a very strong interrogator approach and I haven't seen anything like that this game. I can't think of any insights she's had off the top of my head. She could just be busy, or she could be trying to hide in the background. I want to see what she has to say today.

ent: I've made my case on day 3. OR might be right, and i might be tunnel visioning on him...plus he's harder to read because he's never played before.

helium: logan suspected him on d2... if he's maf we're probably screwed.

Light Leak
06-28-2015, 11:21 PM
^
OK, the part after the comma does seem a little strange.

The thing is there are reasons that a cop may get a false read though. So you can never really be 100% positive about someone's guilt until it's confirmed. I'm not sure if that's where she was going with that comment or not. If a cop gets a lead, I don't know why a townie wouldn't want to follow up on that lead immediately since it's the best shot.

I'm not ready to hang Sappho for that one strange comment.

Light Leak
06-28-2015, 11:22 PM
the ^ was in response to OzR

lethe
06-29-2015, 01:08 AM
First a note about tone to Orion:

Your trolling has got to stop with me. I have not been rude or done anything to you. Referencing my breasts/sexuality in this game and swearing at me is both uncalled for and unacceptable. No more. If you can't make your points without these tactics, perhaps you need better points.
You will speak to me with respect or not at all.

To everyone:


I'd like to start out by pointing out that this "case" against me is filled with wrong information, if not straight out intentional lies.


lethe

......
When I was begging and buying Buddha off of ferrus to join me against Utisz, you were still fixated with the attack on ent. But repeatedly said you would join in on a "Quiet" member if there was momentum.

....


In another post you explain again how you felt getting the quite folks was good policy.

...
Buddha then jumped his ass back onto ferrus saying he suddenly didn't find me trustworthy. I was too "pre-meditating".

and you said to the guy you had hounded for both days:

To ent's credit he did not join in on the killing of the cop.


I did not "hound" ent. Even "attack" is too strong a word as I never really tried to get others to vote for him, only quiet players. I gave a vote for a quiet player (ent) the first day, and when that player responded by suspecting me in turn, I suggested it was retaliatory and repeatedly asked WHY. No answer. I said on day two:


I explained very clearly why I was voting for you both days.
Part if the reason I was voting for you today moved to someone else, and was pointed out to me, so I switched. I am clear, obvious and consistent.

Honestly, ask yourself about your reasons for suspecting me.

I too, feel the urge to attack who points at me. But usually, that is only a distraction.

If you have a real reason to suspect me all this time, please make a case and I will explain.

If not, rewritten to a vote that matters

The second day he was also quiet and I chose him for reasons I will explain below. I did not campaign or insult. I was clear the entire time exactly WHY I was voting that way, and exactly what it would take to (easily) sway me to a better target.



You then flipped off your two day attack of ent, for not spelling Townie correctly, and joined on ferrus. saying: (me saying "come back" to ent)

P-O soon joined you.

Ummm... yeah, NO. P-O had already voted for ferrus (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?2575-Mafia-4-Day-2&p=116397&viewfull=1#post116397), and was indeed the person who pointed out to me that ferrus had a chance. Which worked for me as P-O and I seemed to be thinking along the same lines and motivations most that day. The fact that ferrus was quiet, had votes, and a better chance than ent was why I switched. Of course I'd ask ent to switch back. The momentum was what got me off of ent in the first place.

Questions: Why would Orion make it look like I caused P-O to vote ferrus not the other way around?

Why would Orion repeatedly point out how ent ended up voting right but gloss over the fact that ent started on ferrus and left as soon as he gained momentum?Why does he not suspect a mafia ploy to build a case then jump ship so as to look innocent?

How many mafia do you think voted for ferrus? How many openly protected Utisz? Would a mafia member risk doing both? Is anyone hiding/downplaying their participation in either acts?


When you flipped seemingly so capriciously ferrus said:

Well I think we can safely assume lethe is mafia.
and before this from the grave of an innocent I was repped:

I bet lethe's mafia.
I'm sure Stig can confirm I received such a rep.

About the "rep" and speculation completely and utterly useless information. The equivalent of hearing someone's cousin in Tahoe read the thread and suspected me but couldn't explain why.


"Firstly, You stayed on ent's ass, till Utisz was in trouble, because he didn't spell Townie correctly. "

Also lies. I never targeted or criticized ent for that. Was not a factor in anything, ever. I don't know why you are saying it. I clearly explained my motivations and have never wavered.

Also, I started OFF defending Utisz, before ever voting for ent the second day. First I asked "Why are you targeting Utisz" (like many others did) and without an answer, It looked fishy so I decided to protect him (and flat out stated I would) and change the voting options from just GnarlFox and Utisz to someone else.



My Thinking: At the end of the day, I didn't want the vote to be a forced choice between GnarlFox and Utisz, especially one that looked like it was manufactured by Orion without a reasonable explanation. I didn't think it wise to have our two main options chosen by Orion alone.

From what I saw, it looked like Orion was taking advantage of GnarlFox's fear and depseration from being targeted to wrestle his vote away. Essentially pushing GnarlFox to vote for anyone other than GnarlFox, and then choosing who that other option was for him.

I tried to get GnarlFox to pick his own option and make his own case, to explain he was better off voting for someone he actually suspected. (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?2575-Mafia-4-Day-2&p=116400&viewfull=1#post116400) When he didn't just as I SAID I would : I had to choose between GnarlFox and a quiet player. I chose a "quiet" because:
I felt pulling up a quiet player in the running, early enough to gain momentum, would give us some more voting information and
I didn't really think the "case" against GnarlFox (his foux pas) was good enough
If GnarlFox WAS mafia, he would keep talking and make more mistakes (he would be easier to catch later than a quiet one)

My reasoning was very similar to P-Os here:

Well it's clear we're not going to get ferrus this round. Everybody is saying he's the second most suspicious guy.

Similarly, there's almost no interest in people voting for ent over you. The only person there seems to be interest in lynching besides you is gnarlfox.

As much as I harp on the importance of lynching quiet people, nobody seems to be interested. So I'm forced to choose between the "guy who talks to much" or the "noob who said the wrong thing".

I think the case against gnarlfox is better than the case against you, but it doesn't really convince me.... However, I can guarantee that a number of people will do the right move next turn if you get lynched today.

I'm open to arguments for other candidates, as always my vote is tentative.


OF the quiets I had a few to choose from, As I stated here. (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?2575-Mafia-4-Day-2&p=116402&viewfull=1#post116402)
I would have prefered Helium, but went with ent because:
there was already a vote for ent, so had an actual chance of gaining momentum
ent started targeting me in retaliation, refused to explain "suspicious behaviour" and was still stuck on the targeting, so as I explained here: I know that this member is going to be distracted from real mafia by targeting a townie (me)
will probably continue to do so, which means he is either mafia or a bad player who isn't going ot be much benefit to the town.
Ent wasn't talking unless targetted.
Those are the factors that put ent as the best "quiet" player to risk.


When asked about another potential, ferrus, by ent I explained here (yes, he is suspicious, but no chance of momentum) (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?2575-Mafia-4-Day-2&p=116422&viewfull=1#post116422)
P-O pointed out ferrus could get momentum. (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?2575-Mafia-4-Day-2&p=116425&viewfull=1#post116425) He was right. In fact, he had a much better chance of being an option to the town than ent did. So, just as I said I would, I switched. Is anyone suspicious of P-O campaigning ferrus to me?

I saw that ent left ferrus, immediately after asking me why I wasn't going with ferrus, so asked ent to return. The entire REASON I switched to ferrus was to get momentum for another player that wasn't picked by Orion. Ent leaving threatened that, and would have made ent a target by me again.

Also, I wondered why ent would start a vote on someone and just jump ship as that someone gained momentum, unless it was a mafia thing and ferrus was innocent and ent didn't want to be seen voting for the innocent. At that point, I wondered if there was a P-O/ent mafia thing going on. Especially after going back and reading this when P-O STARTED by targeting Utisz (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?2575-Mafia-4-Day-2&p=116389&viewfull=1#post116389).

So Both P-O and ent start targeting the opposite players, then both switch when the players get momentum. Meanwhile, Orion loks like hes trying to bully votes and control who the final two potential lynches are, then misrepresents information in a way that hides the P-O/ent dynamic. I don't know how intentional that is, but I do know I don't trust him enough to let him dictate so much voting.


As for not posting on day three well, it was the weekend and I WAS busy. But there wasn't much to discuss as we had to kill Utisz. Plus I was quite comfortable being made a target by townies and not pointing fingers until I had to, so the mafia would not have a reason to kill me in the night. Essentially, I looked at anything anyone had to say day 3 as advertizing to the mob.

lethe
06-29-2015, 01:35 AM
I'd also like to add:

I'm still not sure who to vote for. I'm hoping for everyone to consider the questions I raised and give some feedback and new ideas.

Is there something I'm missing? Anything you noticed?
I'm open to reason and good points. Have your own pet suspicions?

The more we talk and work together, the better off the town is.

Let's figure this it together, and knock of the bickering, bullying, and ego battles. I don't think they are helping us.

OrionzRevenge
06-29-2015, 01:39 AM
Thoughts on the popular people:

I don't think OR is maf. He's a noob and I don't think he has the skill to pull off that kind of play. His desperation seems genuine.

I think heph might have the skill to pull off that kind of play... But I'm on the fence.

Lethe didn't participate at all on day 3. Normally in these games she takes a very strong interrogator approach and I haven't seen anything like that this game. I can't think of any insights she's had off the top of my head. She could just be busy, or she could be trying to hide in the background. I want to see what she has to say today.

ent: I've made my case on day 3. OR might be right, and i might be tunnel visioning on him...plus he's harder to read because he's never played before.

helium: logan suspected him on d2... if he's maf we're probably screwed.

Of course I'm Desperate. The Night is Dark and Full of Terrors.

Speaking of which, Why Stiggy???

When he suggested the Mafs & Townies Pile back onto GnarlFox, he later explained it was for the Townie reason:

The Mafs being so flippant about who they flop on made them look suspect.

But I was till his death a bit suspect that he might have been the one Maf that digested my slip about ferrus possibly being the cop. I think on Day 1 Stig voted for Utisz and gunned at the start of Day 2 as well, but his flop-flops during ferrus v Utisz ended with him on Gnarl and not where I wanted him on Utisz. But now I think I see he really was trying to get the people claiming they had the goods on Gnarl to put their supposed convictions to the test.

The hard revelation to swallow about ferrus v Utisz is in all my efforts to convict Utisz, with every crazy & Bombastic thing I could do, (To point out why his indictment of Gnarl was BS) I probably steered people to the quite guy because they thought I had an irrational beef with Utisz.

I wonder if they felt he was somehow more the orchestrator of the Impossible Insight???

I noticed how much levity he was sharing with Utisz during his last day, and then I noticed at the GY a poke at Stig by Utisz at Daybreak. Kinda struck me as a 'I know what you did' thingy.

I wish I had have had more of a rapport with Stiggy in the virtual world above this one. I'm thinking now he tried several times to reach out to be helpful and there were things that kept putting me off.


Thoughts?

OrionzRevenge
06-29-2015, 01:43 AM
First a note about tone to Orion:

Your trolling has got to stop with me.....

Haven't read the rest yet, been on a long one myself and need to do IRL stuff now. read my last post towards the middle. I gonna place Crazy Ozzy back in the mannequin trunk.

more later.

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 02:07 AM
I think Stiggy was killed because he was too obviously townie. By this, I mean that he kept showing up on the most trusted townie lists--and he'd accidently bent a rule with a question on day 2 that telegraphed he was almost certainly townie.

Maf hate confirmed townies almost as much as confirmed specials, which is why it's a bad grotesque and terrible idea to give them insight to either.

He was also on my most probably townie list, that I didn't give him because I didn't want to paint a bullseye on his back.

There were other reasons to off him too though. He was level headed and curious. Those are good townie traits. He also did nothing to create tension, and if anything eased it.

OrionzRevenge
06-29-2015, 02:19 AM
Still limited in time but, PAY ATTENTION

All my days are gifts from the Mob. We have made mistakes letting our feelings and grudges get in the way, but last night I think we got a little even and the Mafs made one with Stiggy.

I AM THE BACK-UP COP

Heph -- Vanilla Townie >>> I'm confident he isn't the GF. I HOPE he will let it go and help us. I never should have wasted an investigation on him. But I let him get under my skin too.

lethe -- Vanilla >>> I think what happened at ferrus v Utisz was personal animosities everything before that was ent & lethe pissing. I'm very happy to say that I'm going place my faith in you not being the GF.

ent >>> Trusted for reasons already given.

GnarlFox >>> Trusted for reasons already given.

That my mini Bomb.

Digest, Discuss

Buddha
06-29-2015, 02:23 AM
All this crazy. Qui bono?

There are ten people left. There are two or three mafia left.
I suggest we all rank who we'd vote for and come to a consensus that way. That seems more informative than all this xenophobia and nonsense. In future rounds - of which there might not be many left - we'll get something useful out of this.

Here they are. Please rank from 1 (most suspect) to 10 (least suspect).

GnarlFox (7)
Light Leak (9)
Buddha (10)
Hephaestus (2)
lethe (8)
P-O (5)
OrionzRevenge (6)
Sappho (3)
ent (4)
helium (1)

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 02:27 AM
If you could investigate people, why did you so voraciously attack lethe?

Buddha
06-29-2015, 02:29 AM
I AM THE BACK-UP COP

Wut?
Dot: Please verify that this is allowed. I was under the impression that one cop was the maximum allowed during the game.

lethe
06-29-2015, 02:37 AM
Wut?
Dot: Please verify that this is allowed. I was under the impression that one cop was the maximum allowed during the game.

There is a link on the first post of every day thread with a list of the allowable roles.

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 02:41 AM
Hephaestus (3) This guy.... just saying. Undecided, but leaning town.
P-O (4) Seemed awful concerned about saving Utisz (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?2575-Mafia-4-Day-2&p=116579&viewfull=1#post116579) over lynching a maf.
OrionzRevenge (2) Too much "knowing". If he's town, we're both alive because our conflict has counted as +4 BPV's of clusterfuck. Plausible.
Sappho (1) I can't shake the feeling the Godfather clip was a taunt.
helium (5) If he's mafia, he's doing amazing. If he's town, he's as good as dead.

I put my top five because everything below is about even.

lethe
06-29-2015, 02:42 AM
Orion, if what you say is true, please explain
the process
How you got results
What you knew and when
Why you attacked me
Why you chose now to reveal yourself
Why you chose to reveal who was confirmed innocent
Why you chose now to reveal who you know
What you hope this information will do

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 02:42 AM
Wut?
Dot: Please verify that this is allowed. I was under the impression that one cop was the maximum allowed during the game.

It's been done before. Deputy. If the cop dies, then their investigations get passed to the deputy and they gain full cop power.

OrionzRevenge
06-29-2015, 02:44 AM
If you could investigate people, why did you so voraciously attack lethe?

I'm going to probably be popping in and out for short post. I haven't hardly read shit posted since the last one of length.

Heph work with us. You do have a ton of experience. I'm dead if no doc etc. Fuck I know nothing about the roles.

Q: Other Maf roles are undetect? What is the special function?

lethe I Investigated just last night.

lethe
06-29-2015, 02:46 AM
Also please re-explain (concisely) the reasons you trust Gnarlfox and ent.

I find it suspicious the two confirmed townies happen to be the two willing to vote for your lynching and didn't follow you.

OrionzRevenge
06-29-2015, 02:48 AM
It's been done before. Deputy. If the cop dies, then their investigations get passed to the deputy and they gain full cop power.

Yes, lol damn it lethe, that is the word given

I had no power till ferrus died. Now active I prefer back-up cop.

I'm going to need you trust today because I doubt we'll talk about anything else past nightfall.

lethe
06-29-2015, 02:52 AM
Then you don't have my trust.

Even as cop, I see no gain confirming my innocence this moment.

And now you CAN'T answer questions?

Why would I believe that?

OrionzRevenge
06-29-2015, 03:14 AM
Also please re-explain (concisely) the reasons you trust Gnarlfox and ent.

I find it suspicious the two confirmed townies happen to be the two willing to vote for your lynching and didn't follow you.

Gnarl was attacked by the Mob, if a bussing plant with the MOST CREATIVE mind behind him, I can't see dropping the weak sauce of casually conversed probable knowledge stated without qualification as the smoking gun. Sorry to anyone who thinks it was a good accusation. Even LL admits it was weak.

ent because all he has done was to be pissy at you for you being pissy at him. He jumped on ferrus for the fuck of it and to mock weak reasons to attack... when ferrus wasn't in trouble. You jumped on ferrus when he jumped off to still be pissy with him and get back at me for saying your attack on ent was foolish.

But ent stuck with me on Utiz when everyone else fled for ferrus to get out of the crazy vendetta I appeared to have against Utisz.Knowing beside you and Sappho he'd have Utisz allies on his ass too.

I gonna trust you 4 for the rest of the day. Of the 4 I have less reason than any other, but I do.
Let's make a smart call on who to kill.

The ferrus Bomb fucked their heads. I think they killed Stiggy for spite and let me have this day.
Let's drop another bomb.

My head is buzzing, with ideas, things we need to plan. I'm still just reading like the last post before I gotta do IRL shit.

Lets TRY to just get past the hurt and kill a Maf.

Light Leak
06-29-2015, 03:15 AM
I'm finding it difficult to trust OrionzRevenge as well.

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 03:17 AM
lethe, at this point, I actually can't state all the things I know either. I can't tip my hand--and I absolutely cannot be trusted. So don't trust me. No one should.

I don't.

But, I do trust each and every one of you to be able to consider the following plan of action, and evaluate the possibilities. Intuition is a guide, not evidence. Use reason to sort sticky bits, and if you ever find yourself certain, back off and try again. You should always be choosing the most likely, and never what you are certain of--because nothing is ever certain until the mod says it's so.

If Ozzy is telling the truth, he's making a reasonable play. There are two more town lynches before the town loses--if we don't find another mafioso--or there isn't some sort of third party that is able to kill who has been restraining themselves. If they have been, I'm honestly impressed. I don't believe there is. But there might be.

But I digress.

If Ozzy is telling the truth, then what he's doing is shrinking the pool. I can vouch for two of his data points, but I won't say which they are. Saying that is too much already.

If Ozzy is being honest, it doesn't mean he's right--but, we can treat it as if it is fact for now because the probability of all three assumed remaining mafia being in his list is very very slight. From my view, impossible, but you shouldn't take that as fact. I can't prove it.

This means that if we look at the restricted pool, by my estimate, even choosing randomly, we have at worst a 20% chance of getting a maf. I'm positive there's at least one in the remaining 5 people once we remove Ozzy and his list from consideration.

There are as many as three.

Prior to that, we had a 33% chance of success, so factoring for the best and worst case scenarios (Ozzy is lying and making a list that hides all the mafia is the worst, that he's correct on everything is the best) then we've actually gained a 7% chance. It's not great, but it's an improvement.

I think it might be higher.


I think that if my fellow townies want to win, they should restrict consideration to the remaining five:

Light Leak
Buddha
P-O
Sappho
helium

Of those, Sappho, P-O and helium are on my short list. But I've got no reason to believe any of them are town aligned.

lethe
06-29-2015, 03:27 AM
Gnarl was attacked by the Mob, if a bussing plant with the MOST CREATIVE mind behind him, I can't see dropping the weak sauce of casually conversed probable knowledge stated without qualification as the smoking gun. Sorry to anyone who thinks it was a good accusation. Even LL admits it was weak.

ent because all he has done was to be pissy at you for you being pissy at him. He jumped on ferrus for the fuck of it and to mock weak reasons to attack... when ferrus wasn't in trouble. You jumped on ferrus when he jumped off to still be pissy with him and get back at me for saying your attack on ent was foolish.

But ent stuck with me on Utiz when everyone else fled for ferrus to get out of the crazy vendetta I appeared to have against Utisz.Knowing beside you and Sappho he'd have Utisz allies on his ass too.

I gonna trust you 4 for the rest of the day. Of the 4 I have less reason than any other, but I do.
Let's make a smart call on who to kill.

The ferrus Bomb fucked their heads. I think they killed Stiggy for spite and let me have this day.
Let's drop another bomb.

My head is buzzing, with ideas, things we need to plan. I'm still just reading like the last post before I gotta do IRL shit.

Lets TRY to just get past the hurt and kill a Maf.

Ok... Well here is why I can't buy your judgement on things you don't know, because your interpretation of my actions is just plain wrong. I explained clearly and repeatedly why I did what I did. I didn't do anything to spite you or ent. My motivations have been stated and consistent with actions. Yet you continue to misrepresent facts and events. Even if I believed you cop, I can't trust your judgement and reasoning on other members when I see how wrong you are about me.

lethe
06-29-2015, 03:42 AM
Well, whatever the case with Orion, I have to agree with what heph laid out.

Does anyone else have any other concerns, theories or questions? Any major flaws with hephs points?

Hell, I even agree with his top 3

Light Leak
06-29-2015, 03:47 AM
Other than the fact that I'm on Heph's list, I have no concern. The plan seems reasonable enough to me.

OrionzRevenge
06-29-2015, 03:57 AM
Then you don't have my trust.

Even as cop, I see no gain confirming my innocence this moment.

And now you CAN'T answer questions?

Why would I believe that?

I'm not asking you confirm anything. I said I'm gonna trust you. I have less reason to do so than any of the other four. Plain and simple.

You could be the GF. I'm basing my trust on the fact that I can see animosity as the cause of the actions you've taken I might otherwise suspect.

Let's just try to work into this a bit and Iron-out the details after the game.

Who are you prime suspects. Please don't say ent.

OrionzRevenge
06-29-2015, 04:11 AM
Ok... Well here is why I can't buy your judgement on things you don't know, because your interpretation of my actions is just plain wrong. I explained clearly and repeatedly why I did what I did. I didn't do anything to spite you or ent. My motivations have been stated and consistent with actions. Yet you continue to misrepresent facts and events. Even if I believed you cop, I can't trust your judgement and reasoning on other members when I see how wrong you are about me.

I still haven't read you reply to the inquisition. So let's move on. If I'm wrong about your innocent motivations but guessed right that you are Townie that's fucking awesome. I've said my insight about ferrus may have been reading his preoccupation IRL.

I don't know much about this game.

Like Heph said. I'm rolling the dice
But we haven't got much to lose by not just working on suspects.

If you are Townie, Then Let's shock the fuck out of'em and drop another bomb.

Full honesty about the IRL preoccupation is that taking this gambit sparked a wild ass mania ride.

My thoughts are racing and its hard not to get in my mind about suspects instead of breaking down this wall.


I know you have been beside Sappho most of the game, but go read what I was saying about her reaction to the ferrus bomb.

Tell me what you think.

lethe
06-29-2015, 04:11 AM
I know you aren't asking me to confirm anything. I was questioning why you would choose this time to tell everyone else of my innocence.

Heph addressed that some.

As for the trust... If you are basing your trust of me on something false, then I can't put faith in your trust of others.

Which is fine. It's a separate issue from you being cop or not. Even if your aren't really cop I can't vote for you this round. Too risky.

I already stated I agreed with hephs top three.

OrionzRevenge
06-29-2015, 04:12 AM
@lethe (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/member.php?u=116), at this point, I actually can't state all the things I know either. I can't tip my hand--and I absolutely cannot be trusted. So don't trust me. No one should.

I don't.

But, I do trust each and every one of you to be able to consider the following plan of action, and evaluate the possibilities. Intuition is a guide, not evidence. Use reason to sort sticky bits, and if you ever find yourself certain, back off and try again. You should always be choosing the most likely, and never what you are certain of--because nothing is ever certain until the mod says it's so.

If Ozzy is telling the truth, he's making a reasonable play. There are two more town lynches before the town loses--if we don't find another mafioso--or there isn't some sort of third party that is able to kill who has been restraining themselves. If they have been, I'm honestly impressed. I don't believe there is. But there might be.

But I digress.

If Ozzy is telling the truth, then what he's doing is shrinking the pool. I can vouch for two of his data points, but I won't say which they are. Saying that is too much already.

If Ozzy is being honest, it doesn't mean he's right--but, we can treat it as if it is fact for now because the probability of all three assumed remaining mafia being in his list is very very slight. From my view, impossible, but you shouldn't take that as fact. I can't prove it.

This means that if we look at the restricted pool, by my estimate, even choosing randomly, we have at worst a 20% chance of getting a maf. I'm positive there's at least one in the remaining 5 people once we remove Ozzy and his list from consideration.

There are as many as three.

Prior to that, we had a 33% chance of success, so factoring for the best and worst case scenarios (Ozzy is lying and making a list that hides all the mafia is the worst, that he's correct on everything is the best) then we've actually gained a 7% chance. It's not great, but it's an improvement.

I think it might be higher.


I think that if my fellow townies want to win, they should restrict consideration to the remaining five:

Light Leak
Buddha
P-O
Sappho
helium

Of those, Sappho, P-O and helium are on my short list. But I've got no reason to believe any of them are town aligned.

Thanks Heph, we've wasted a lot of time
Now let's blow their fucking mind.

Have you looked at what I have written in this tread about Sappho's chat with ferrus on the gallows?
Impressions.

lethe
06-29-2015, 04:15 AM
Even guesses work better when you actually look at all the information.

I'm not really interested in discussing interpretations about a game with you if haven't even seen it all played.

That's like discussing a book you haven't read. Our putting together a puzzle without all the pieces. Pointless to me.

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 04:30 AM
Have you looked at what I have written in this tread about Sappho's chat with ferrus on the gallows?
Impressions.

Sappho and ferrus are friends. This is known. Their private discussions are irrelevant.

Doubly so knowing that ferrus was the cop.

Paranoia about PM's destroys games.

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 04:34 AM
Erh. I think I read the exchange too hastily. Sappho said something about their discussion being not game related--that's what flagged in my mind to your question.

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 04:38 AM
Ok, reviewed the exchange you meant. That's actually the same exchanged that caught my attention, but not the wording, the media.

She posted a classic mafia clip about a gangster betraying a friend. It's clever, but it also seems like a taunt.

The last sentence is clunky, but in keeping with her writing style. But I'm more interested in the choice of media as message.

OrionzRevenge
06-29-2015, 04:38 AM
Erh. I think I read the exchange too hastily. Sappho said something about their discussion being not game related--that's what flagged in my mind to your question.

No, I'm on about this that I was explaining to LL earlier here:

QUOTE]If you're a cop indeed, Utisz will definitely be under increased suspicion.[/QUOTE]

Utisz got me to flip off you by saying MacG didn't clearly indicate he was innocent while waiting on the Gallows.

I mean, I can't see how a Townie would say/think anything other than: When this is confirmed, Utisz is dead!
or something to that effect.

Real cops always want to get people talking right after a violation of some sort because that is when they are most likely to give themselves away because of the disorientation, and maybe denial of the reality.

I'm confident the mafs didn't even pause to think that ferrus was the cop, even after I let it slip, in one of the too many chats with Heph, trying to save ferrus.

I think they were all in shocked

Shock--Denial

What happened during ferrus-v-Utisz, as it relates to Sappho, I think can be explained by 2 or three personal animosities at the time. And certainly a perceived beef i was acting out on Utisz.

But I'm having a hard time with that statement.[/QUOTE]

OrionzRevenge
06-29-2015, 04:44 AM
Ok, reviewed the exchange you meant. That's actually the same exchanged that caught my attention, but not the wording, the media.

She posted a classic mafia clip about a gangster betraying a friend. It's clever, but it also seems like a taunt.

The last sentence is clunky, but in keeping with her writing style. But I'm more interested in the choice of media as message.

I haven't even bothered to view it yet.

I have always suspected P-O and LL

and both have said they were suspect of some of the 5 before I dropped my bomb.

I was asking this of ll to suss her reaction.

I see she is the weakest on your list but we are both strong on Sappho.

I have fucking nothing but MacG's kill to read Helium.

OrionzRevenge
06-29-2015, 04:49 AM
Even guesses work better when you actually look at all the information.

I'm not really interested in discussing interpretations about a game with you if haven't even seen it all played.

That's like discussing a book you haven't read. Our putting together a puzzle without all the pieces. Pointless to me.

Without the quote from me (i'm guessing) I can't comprehend what you are saying here.

See above me and Heph discussing Sappho
Is she suspect to you?

Who is your top choice?

Let's get a maf Today.

OrionzRevenge
06-29-2015, 04:50 AM
better change my vote

PLACEHOLDER FOR ONE DEAD-ASS MAF

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 04:50 AM
No, I'm on about this that I was explaining to LL earlier here:

QUOTE]If you're a cop indeed, Utisz will definitely be under increased suspicion.

Utisz got me to flip off you by saying MacG didn't clearly indicate he was innocent while waiting on the Gallows.

I mean, I can't see how a Townie would say/think anything other than: When this is confirmed, Utisz is dead!
or something to that effect.

Real cops always want to get people talking right after a violation of some sort because that is when they are most likely to give themselves away because of the disorientation, and maybe denial of the reality.

I'm confident the mafs didn't even pause to think that ferrus was the cop, even after I let it slip, in one of the too many chats with Heph, trying to save ferrus.

I think they were all in shocked

Shock--Denial

What happened during ferrus-v-Utisz, as it relates to Sappho, I think can be explained by 2 or three personal animosities at the time. And certainly a perceived beef i was acting out on Utisz.

But I'm having a hard time with that statement.[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

My own mini-bomb: I've never actually seen the Godfather. Never had an interest. Consequently, some internet rummaging has shown I've misunderstood that exchange--though that's the context I've most noticed the scene referenced in.

I'm not sure on the wording issue. It could be a slip, or it could be she was trying to roleplay. She's brilliantly formal and loves a certain sense of old-fashioned write voice, and that fits it. To me, it's like indicting Sherlock Holmes for saying 'singular'.

You're alternate theory on the video clip actually reduces my suspicion slightly.

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 04:52 AM
Whoah. Now I too have been struck by the Ghost of Quote Madness.

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 04:54 AM
Ok, I think I fixed it. Ignore post #60 as some weird juju was going on there.


Utisz got me to flip off you by saying MacG didn't clearly indicate he was innocent while waiting on the Gallows.

I mean, I can't see how a Townie would say/think anything other than: When this is confirmed, Utisz is dead!
or something to that effect.

Real cops always want to get people talking right after a violation of some sort because that is when they are most likely to give themselves away because of the disorientation, and maybe denial of the reality.

I'm confident the mafs didn't even pause to think that ferrus was the cop, even after I let it slip, in one of the too many chats with Heph, trying to save ferrus.

I think they were all in shocked

Shock--Denial

What happened during ferrus-v-Utisz, as it relates to Sappho, I think can be explained by 2 or three personal animosities at the time. And certainly a perceived beef i was acting out on Utisz.

But I'm having a hard time with that statement.

My own mini-bomb: I've never actually seen the Godfather. Never had an interest. Consequently, some internet rummaging has shown I've misunderstood that exchange--though that's the context I've most noticed the scene referenced in.

I'm not sure on the wording issue. It could be a slip, or it could be she was trying to roleplay. She's brilliantly formal and loves a certain sense of old-fashioned write voice, and that fits it. To me, it's like indicting Sherlock Holmes for saying 'singular'.

You're alternate theory on the video clip actually reduces my suspicion slightly.

OrionzRevenge
06-29-2015, 04:56 AM
Also, When Sappho replied to my Inquisition she sub-quoted a lot but answered replied often with a dodge.

AT the Top of this thread I re-focused her on the quote in particular. I still think it was a dodgy reply
ent GnarlFox lethe

What do you think about

Helium
Sappho
P-O

OrionzRevenge
06-29-2015, 04:59 AM
Ok, I think I fixed it. Ignore post #60 as some weird juju was going on there.



My own mini-bomb: I've never actually seen the Godfather. Never had an interest. Consequently, some internet rummaging has shown I've misunderstood that exchange--though that's the context I've most noticed the scene referenced in.

I'm not sure on the wording issue. It could be a slip, or it could be she was trying to roleplay. She's brilliantly formal and loves a certain sense of old-fashioned write voice, and that fits it. To me, it's like indicting Sherlock Holmes for saying 'singular'.

You're alternate theory on the video clip actually reduces my suspicion slightly.

Different reasons but we like her a lot.

lol
You probably didn't think much of why I jump Utisz shit either.

What ever works
:p

lethe
06-29-2015, 04:59 AM
Without the quote from me (i'm guessing) I can't comprehend what you are saying here.

See above me and Heph discussing Sappho
Is she suspect to you?

Who is your top choice?

Let's get a maf Today.

Simply put: you repeatedly mention how you haven't read everything that's been said. You've been being events mixed up.

You are only looking at part of the picture. Your speculations and discussing it with you is useless.

If you really want to figure it out, I suggest you spend more time reading and less time typing.

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 05:00 AM
Sappho,

I realize that even if you are a townie, that restricted pool is going to be uncomfortable because you are in it.

What are your thoughts about the people not in that pool? Assume Ozzy is being straightforward--there's still room for doubt. What are your thoughts on those we're proposing to assume are townies?

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 05:11 AM
Different reasons but we like her a lot.

lol
You probably didn't think much of why I jump Utisz shit either.

What ever works
:p

At this point--I honestly like P-O more.

I'm also still concerned about your attack on lethe when you had the ability to investigate her.

1. Did you attack before or after investigating her?

2. Why?

Your situation can't get more precarious. Your information is unlikely to increase risk for anyone else tonight. While my stated reasons for going along stand, I'm still uneasy about those unanswered questions. They're a big stink to me--and probably to other townies too.

Fitz
06-29-2015, 05:23 AM
What do you think about

Helium
Sappho
P-O

Between those three I'd put a bullet in P-O. He's been slimey the whole game.

Fitz
06-29-2015, 05:25 AM
Helium is either playing all of us or really mia and sappho hasn't been setting off my spideysense lately. Buddha and lightleak on the other hand make me all kinds of tingly.

OrionzRevenge
06-29-2015, 06:02 AM
At this point--I honestly like P-O more.

I'm also still concerned about your attack on lethe when you had the ability to investigate her.

1. Did you attack before or after investigating her?

2. Why?

Your situation can't get more precarious. Your information is unlikely to increase risk for anyone else tonight. While my stated reasons for going along stand, I'm still uneasy about those unanswered questions. They're a big stink to me--and probably to other townies too.

When ferrus died I got my first investigation then. I was just as much blown away as everyone else. Not because I didn't know but because I thought I did from the moment ferrus voted for Utisz.

If you recall where our little fiasco was at that time:

You let Utisz get you to break the vow to vote for ferrus.

And with MacG on my mind as well.....

You were the obvious first target from an emotional point of view. Even though rationally I was still thinking LL.

By the time of second investigation I had already decided that you couldn't be the GF they would never let you constantly taunt death.

And I had worked myself into a froth about lethe from analyzing ferrus v Utisz for all the inquisitions.

Like how you and I got to high suspicion of Sappho from different means. She says my reasoning as to why I should not find her suspicious is some msg-esque BS. (I just read her reply to my inquisition).
lethe I do have some apologies to make to you.

First and foremost, I wasn't meaning to be insulting in a sexual way. Just the reality that you are alluring.

Also, there was so much musical chairs going on I very well could have gotten P-O and you reversed.

I looked like a complete as yesterday telling P-O he said something ent did.

I was worked up because I blamed the 6 of you remaining for ferrus. If you read what I asked you to then you'll know I see now where I played into his death as well. The main disagreement still remaining is that I still think I'm right about ent and I don't agree with why you indicted him.

Crazy Ozzy went way too far with the language trolling for leads.
As I told you first thing, I've put Crazy Ozzy in the Trunk. For Now :p

lethe I'm sorry.
I told you Day 1 I thought you would be the most dangerous if Maf. Yesterday you were.
After working it out my way today, I decided take a chance.

Flip the script on who you are the most dangerous to.

What do you think of

Helium
Sappho
P-O

?

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 06:51 AM
Helium is either playing all of us or really mia
That 'or' isn't exclusive. He could be mafia and mia.

OrionzRevenge
06-29-2015, 06:53 AM
At this point--I honestly like P-O more.

I'm also still concerned about your attack on lethe when you had the ability to investigate her.

1. Did you attack before or after investigating her?

2. Why?

Your situation can't get more precarious. Your information is unlikely to increase risk for anyone else tonight. While my stated reasons for going along stand, I'm still uneasy about those unanswered questions. They're a big stink to me--and probably to other townies too.


Between those three I'd put a bullet in P-O. He's been slimey the whole game.

P-O

I never liked how he jumped off MacG. He placated me a bit by saying his reasoning the same as my pet rationale:

AND

I think he may be someone we could all agree on.



Thoughts on the popular people:

I don't think OR is maf. He's a noob and I don't think he has the skill to pull off that kind of play. His desperation seems genuine.

I think heph might have the skill to pull off that kind of play... But I'm on the fence.

Lethe didn't participate at all on day 3. Normally in these games she takes a very strong interrogator approach and I haven't seen anything like that this game. I can't think of any insights she's had off the top of my head. She could just be busy, or she could be trying to hide in the background. I want to see what she has to say today.

ent: I've made my case on day 3. OR might be right, and i might be tunnel visioning on him...plus he's harder to read because he's never played before.

helium: logan suspected him on d2... if he's maf we're probably screwed.

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 07:24 AM
P-O

Buddha
06-29-2015, 07:26 AM
Fine by me.
I'm changing my vote to P-O.

GnarlFox
06-29-2015, 08:30 AM
List:

1. helium
2. P-O
3. Sappho
4. lethe/Light Leak
5. ent
6. Buddha
7. Hephaestus
8. OrionzRevenge

P-O tried to switch from MacGuffin after the time was up and gave a poor reason as to why. He also voted for ferrus.

OrionzRevenge
06-29-2015, 08:31 AM
Fine by me.
I'm changing my vote to P-O.

Awesome

I think our chances of carrying the day are good, and it's making me nice thought about about you. :p
GnarlFox

You know I have had you back except for when I had to have ferrus'.
I need you to vote P-O dude.

Light Leak

If you are Townie, Vote P-O
Sappho prove to me that the BS M aint isn't all that. Vote for P-O

OrionzRevenge
06-29-2015, 08:32 AM
List:

1. helium
2. P-O
3. Sappho
4. lethe/Light Leak
5. ent
6. Buddha
7. Hephaestus
8. OrionzRevenge

P-O tried to switch from MacGuffin after the time was up and gave a poor reason as to why. He also voted for ferrus.

I knew you would, :)

GnarlFox
06-29-2015, 09:06 AM
I knew you would, :)

I was going to wait out a little longer on P-O but he does have case against him while a lot of other players don't have as strong of one. I don't really like putting people in order as it gives off too much information to the Mafia. Consider everyone on that list to be plus or minus two.

OrionzRevenge
06-29-2015, 09:06 AM
P-O

When the sun comes up next, I'm going to hate not being here for what's next.

OrionzRevenge
06-29-2015, 09:14 AM
I was going to wait out a little longer on P-O but he does have case against him while a lot of other players don't have as strong of one. I don't really like putting people in order as it gives off too much information to the Mafia. Consider everyone on that list to be plus or minus two.

Yep. I'm sure he wouldn't have offered his analysis, that I quoted a few post back, if he knew I had a Bomb in my pocket and a plan.:p

It feels good to be the ones attacking with confidence for a change.

We damn sure have had our fill of defending. :)

Light Leak
06-29-2015, 12:05 PM
You know I have had you back except for when I had to have ferrus'.
I need you to vote P-O dude.

@Light Leak

I've already had some suspicion of P-O, which I expressed on Day 3... although I was suspicious of Buddha (still am) for the same reasons.

But sure I'll vote P-O.

And also, I'm not a dude.

Light Leak
06-29-2015, 12:07 PM
wait I think I may have misunderstood your fomatting

Light Leak
06-29-2015, 12:17 PM
I have always suspected P-O and LL

I've you've always suspected P-O and I then why have neither of us been investigated by you?

Light Leak
06-29-2015, 12:27 PM
If you've always suspected I mean...


I shouldn't post before coffee.

P-O
06-29-2015, 12:56 PM
Holy shit.

A lot of these arguments don't make any sense to me.


P-O

I never liked how he jumped off MacG. He placated me a bit by saying his reasoning the same as my pet rationale:
.
I placated you nothing. I asked you to explain why that could be interpreted as a mafia strategy. The one you came up with made no sense. That i was trying to hide by changing my vote in the middle of the night and subsequently posting the reasoning why i did it. MacG had a weird attitude about the game. He was going to be lynched eventually anyway because he wasn't participating seriously.


Between those three I'd put a bullet in P-O. He's been slimey the whole game.
You, I get. I interrogate you, you vote for me. That's your strategy from day 1.



Ummm... yeah, NO. P-O had already voted for ferrus (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?2575-Mafia-4-Day-2&p=116397&viewfull=1#post116397), and was indeed the person who pointed out to me that ferrus had a chance. Which worked for me as P-O and I seemed to be thinking along the same lines and motivations most that day. The fact that ferrus was quiet, had votes, and a better chance than ent was why I switched. Of course I'd ask ent to switch back. The momentum was what got me off of ent in the first place.
Ferrus WAS suspicious. He was making up a story about how he didn't have time while simultaneously posting elsewhere on the board.

[I]Questions: Why would Orion make it look like I caused P-O to vote ferrus not the other way around?

Why would Orion repeatedly point out how ent ended up voting right but gloss over the fact that ent started on ferrus and left as soon as he gained momentum?Why does he not suspect a mafia ploy to build a case then jump ship so as to look innocent



Also lies. I never targeted or criticized ent for that. Was not a factor in anything, ever. I don't know why you are saying it. I clearly explained my motivations and have never wavered.

Also, I started OFF defending Utisz, before ever voting for ent the second day. First I asked "Why are you targeting Utisz" (like many others did) and without an answer, It looked fishy so I decided to protect him (and flat out stated I would) and change the voting options from just GnarlFox and Utisz to someone else.



My Thinking: At the end of the day, I didn't want the vote to be a forced choice between GnarlFox and Utisz, especially one that looked like it was manufactured by Orion without a reasonable explanation. I didn't think it wise to have our two main options chosen by Orion alone.

From what I saw, it looked like Orion was taking advantage of GnarlFox's fear and depseration from being targeted to wrestle his vote away. Essentially pushing GnarlFox to vote for anyone other than GnarlFox, and then choosing who that other option was for him.



My reasoning was very similar to P-Os here:

Your reasoning is similar, except it's suspicious when I do it? If lots of people later expressed a desire to vote for ent that round, would you have gone to ent? Obviously.





P-O pointed out ferrus could get momentum. (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?2575-Mafia-4-Day-2&p=116425&viewfull=1#post116425) He was right. In fact, he had a much better chance of being an option to the town than ent did. So, just as I said I would, I switched. Is anyone suspicious of P-O campaigning ferrus to me? He WAS suspicious. I was campaigning the quiet people to everyone that day.




I saw that ent left ferrus, immediately after asking me why I wasn't going with ferrus, so asked ent to return. The entire REASON I switched to ferrus was to get momentum for another player that wasn't picked by Orion. Ent leaving threatened that, and would have made ent a target by me again.
This IS suspicious and, it was the basis of my argument against him yesterday.




Also, I wondered why ent would start a vote on someone and just jump ship as that someone gained momentum, unless it was a mafia thing and ferrus was innocent and ent didn't want to be seen voting for the innocent. At that point, I wondered if there was a P-O/ent mafia thing going on. Especially after going back and reading this when P-O STARTED by targeting Utisz (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?2575-Mafia-4-Day-2&p=116389&viewfull=1#post116389).

So Both P-O and ent start targeting the opposite players, then both switch when the players get momentum. Meanwhile, Orion loks like hes trying to bully votes and control who the final two potential lynches are, then misrepresents information in a way that hides the P-O/ent dynamic. I don't know how intentional that is, but I do know I don't trust him enough to let him dictate so much voting.


It doesn't make any sense why a maf would want to build momentum on utisz. It makes sense that if the maf's thought ferrus was the cop that they'd want to build momentum on ferrus. Why on earth would they do that?

What's the conenction between me and ent? I want to lynch him and, consequently, he wants to lynch me.




P-O (4) Seemed awful concerned about saving Utisz (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?2575-Mafia-4-Day-2&p=116579&viewfull=1#post116579) over lynching a maf.

Actually I was pointing out to you that it was weird and suspicious of you to switch your vote over such trivial reasons. You're the one who did the suspicious thing there. The act that you were so caught up in that fight with OR that you'd vow his death.


I honestly think you're all caught up in some group think here. None of these points make any sense. The argument against ent is like 10x better.

P-O
06-29-2015, 12:58 PM
Holy shit.

A lot of these arguments don't make any sense to me.


P-O

I never liked how he jumped off MacG. He placated me a bit by saying his reasoning the same as my pet rationale:
.
I placated you nothing. I asked you to explain why that could be interpreted as a mafia strategy. The one you came up with made no sense. That i was trying to hide by changing my vote in the middle of the night and subsequently posting the reasoning why i did it. MacG had a weird attitude about the game. He was going to be lynched eventually anyway because he wasn't participating seriously.


Between those three I'd put a bullet in P-O. He's been slimey the whole game.
You, I get. I interrogate you, you vote for me. That's your strategy from day 1.



Ummm... yeah, NO. P-O had already voted for ferrus (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?2575-Mafia-4-Day-2&p=116397&viewfull=1#post116397), and was indeed the person who pointed out to me that ferrus had a chance. Which worked for me as P-O and I seemed to be thinking along the same lines and motivations most that day. The fact that ferrus was quiet, had votes, and a better chance than ent was why I switched. Of course I'd ask ent to switch back. The momentum was what got me off of ent in the first place.
Ferrus WAS suspicious. He was making up a story about how he didn't have time while simultaneously posting elsewhere on the board.

[I]Questions: Why would Orion make it look like I caused P-O to vote ferrus not the other way around?

Why would Orion repeatedly point out how ent ended up voting right but gloss over the fact that ent started on ferrus and left as soon as he gained momentum?Why does he not suspect a mafia ploy to build a case then jump ship so as to look innocent




My reasoning was very similar to P-Os here:

Your reasoning is similar, except it's suspicious when I do it? If lots of people later expressed a desire to vote for ent that round, would you have gone to ent? Obviously.





P-O pointed out ferrus could get momentum. (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?2575-Mafia-4-Day-2&p=116425&viewfull=1#post116425) He was right. In fact, he had a much better chance of being an option to the town than ent did. So, just as I said I would, I switched. Is anyone suspicious of P-O campaigning ferrus to me? He WAS suspicious. I was campaigning the quiet people to everyone that day.




I saw that ent left ferrus, immediately after asking me why I wasn't going with ferrus, so asked ent to return. The entire REASON I switched to ferrus was to get momentum for another player that wasn't picked by Orion. Ent leaving threatened that, and would have made ent a target by me again.
This IS suspicious and, it was the basis of my argument against him yesterday.




Also, I wondered why ent would start a vote on someone and just jump ship as that someone gained momentum, unless it was a mafia thing and ferrus was innocent and ent didn't want to be seen voting for the innocent. At that point, I wondered if there was a P-O/ent mafia thing going on. Especially after going back and reading this when P-O STARTED by targeting Utisz (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?2575-Mafia-4-Day-2&p=116389&viewfull=1#post116389).

So Both P-O and ent start targeting the opposite players, then both switch when the players get momentum. Meanwhile, Orion loks like hes trying to bully votes and control who the final two potential lynches are, then misrepresents information in a way that hides the P-O/ent dynamic. I don't know how intentional that is, but I do know I don't trust him enough to let him dictate so much voting.


It doesn't make any sense why a maf would want to build momentum on utisz. It makes sense that if the maf's thought ferrus was the cop that they'd want to build momentum on ferrus. Why on earth would they do that?

What's the conenction between me and ent? I want to lynch him and, consequently, he wants to lynch me.




P-O (4) Seemed awful concerned about saving Utisz (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?2575-Mafia-4-Day-2&p=116579&viewfull=1#post116579) over lynching a maf.

Actually I was pointing out to you that it was weird and suspicious of you to switch your vote over such trivial reasons. You're the one who did the suspicious thing there. The act that you were so caught up in that fight with OR that you'd vow his death.


I honestly think you're all caught up in some group think here. None of these points make any sense. The argument against ent is like 10x better.

OrionzRevenge
06-29-2015, 01:15 PM
I've you've always suspected P-O and I then why have neither of us been investigated by you?

If you rad up wards to where Heph ask about this, You'll that I got my first investigation just after ferrus was killed.
Heph and me were butting heads and getting each others skin. As I told him, he was my emotional choice and you were my rational choice. I investigated Heph. By last night I was more transfixed on lethe. I have explained these things in post following announcing that I was the Back-Up Cop.

Just so no one suspects those words, The actual word i was given is "Deputy". I had no clue what a deputy's role was. I went to a googled site that listed it as Back-Up Cop and giving the alternate Deputy name in the description.

I am a Southern White Male and there are loads of negative pop-culture stereotypes about SWM Deputies. I Like Back-Up Cop.

Whatever suspicions anyone has of me will be of no concern past dark. There is broad support and confidence that P-O's indictment will bag us a second Maf. After that Crazy Ozzy is out of hair.

Townies Are Gonna Score Come Sun-Down. Woot!

OrionzRevenge
06-29-2015, 02:12 PM
...


I placated you nothing. I asked you to explain why that could be interpreted as a mafia strategy. The one you came up with made no sense. That i was trying to hide by changing my vote in the middle of the night and subsequently posting the reasoning why i did it. MacG had a weird attitude about the game. He was going to be lynched eventually anyway because he wasn't participating seriously.

....

I'm not gonna get into a long debate about this.

What wasn't liked: Jumping off a pile late when the victory is nigh certain. An Innocent gets killed and the folks on the pile share the blame.

I think you are wasting your breath. The Townies have chosen you and the Mafs can't afford not to be on you too.

P-O
06-29-2015, 02:22 PM
I'm not gonna get into a long debate about this.

What wasn't liked: Jumping off a pile late when the victory is nigh certain. An Innocent gets killed and the folks on the pile share the blame.

I think you are wasting your breath. The Townies have chosen you and the Mafs can't afford not to be on you too.

Like I said that night, I'm happy to share the blame for MacG. I started the vote for him. The first days kill is almost always a townie. Your expectation that any maf would feel the need to hide from that is nonsense. Everybody should expect to vote wrong the first day. If you manage to get a maf, it's a miracle. The rationale for what you're saying doesn't make any sense.

As to wasting breath: Only mafs want lynch targets to be quiet.

Light Leak
06-29-2015, 02:49 PM
I honestly think you're all caught up in some group think here. None of these points make any sense. The argument against ent is like 10x better.

I sort of agree here about ent. I'm not really seeing the reason that ent should be considered so innocent that we don't even consider him as a suspect. I don't think switching from ferrus to Utisz is reason enough to believe he's innocent - especially since Utisz didn't even get even lynched that day. It's possible that he switched to Utisz in hopes that things would still swing in ferrus' direction. And then his vote for Utisz would make him appear more innocent.

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 03:50 PM
It's possible that he switched to Utisz in hopes that things would still swing in ferrus' direction. And then his vote for Utisz would make him appear more innocent.That's insane. I'd call BatShit, but I think it's trademarked.

Light Leak
06-29-2015, 03:55 PM
That's insane. I'd call BatShit, but I think it's trademarked.

How is it insane? I'm failing to see how ent's vote for Utisz somehow proves his innocence.

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 04:06 PM
How is it insane? I'm failing to see how ent's vote for Utisz somehow proves his innocence.

It doesn't. BUT, the argument that a maf switched from a non-maf to a maf in the hopes of swinging votes for the non-maf they just left doesn't make sense. It would be crazy to think you could predictably swing votes that way. It barely parses as a plan and I'm accustomed to convoluted thinking.

Besides, as you've just pointed out: voting for Utisz doesn't prove his innocence, so even you think the plan wouldn't possibly work.

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 04:08 PM
You should have stuck with "maybe ent bussed Utisz". It would have made more sense.

I'm very surprised you didn't. I think it informative.

Fitz
06-29-2015, 04:09 PM
How is it insane? I'm failing to see how ent's vote for Utisz somehow proves his innocence.

Because it drags me into exactly the shit you're doing now? Why the fuck would I take the risk?

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 04:10 PM
Sappho? Have a mo' for that question? I'd appreciate your thoughts on the people not in the proposed restricted pool.

Light Leak
06-29-2015, 04:18 PM
It doesn't. BUT, the argument that a maf switched from a non-maf to a maf in the hopes of swinging votes for the non-maf they just left doesn't make sense. It would be crazy to think you could predictably swing votes that way. It barely parses as a plan and I'm accustomed to convoluted thinking.

Besides, as you've just pointed out: voting for Utisz doesn't prove his innocence, so even you think the plan wouldn't possibly work.


I think I explained my thought weird maybe. My thinking was more along the lines of this:

Let's pretend ent is mafia.

He places a vote for ferrus.

Votes seem to be swinging in the direction of ferrus.

He switches to Utisz. Perhaps he was willing to stick with Utisz even if Utisz did end up getting lynched. Maybe the plan for voting Utisz was to appear more innocent.

I don't think that's an insane thought. I still think he should be considered at least, but if others think this is completely nuts I'll drop it.

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 04:22 PM
I think I explained my thought weird maybe. My thinking was more along the lines of this:

[I]Let's pretend ent is mafia.

He places a vote for ferrus.

Votes seem to be swinging in the direction of ferrus.

The next step in the plan is bizarre.

"I'm getting what I want. Let's risk breaking momentum for what I want in favor of possibly getting exactly what I don't want."

That's what you just proposed ent did.

See why that does not compute for me?

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 04:25 PM
The other issue is:

If ent wanted ferrus lynched, how would voting for Utisz make him look innocent? By your admission, votes seemed to be swinging toward ferrus, so it wouldn't make sense to try to establish innocence by voting for the mafioso who didn't die. At what point was that going to pay off? Here? Where it clearly isn't?

Light Leak
06-29-2015, 04:28 PM
Ok... fair enough. Those are all good points.

Sappho
06-29-2015, 05:01 PM
Sappho and ferrus are friends. This is known. Their private discussions are irrelevant.

Doubly so knowing that ferrus was the cop.

Paranoia about PM's destroys games.


Erh. I think I read the exchange too hastily. Sappho said something about their discussion being not game related--that's what flagged in my mind to your question.

Excuse me? What on Earth is wrong with that statement?


Ok, reviewed the exchange you meant. That's actually the same exchanged that caught my attention, but not the wording, the media.

She posted a classic mafia clip about a gangster betraying a friend. It's clever, but it also seems like a taunt.

The last sentence is clunky, but in keeping with her writing style. But I'm more interested in the choice of media as message.


My own mini-bomb: I've never actually seen the Godfather. Never had an interest. Consequently, some internet rummaging has shown I've misunderstood that exchange--though that's the context I've most noticed the scene referenced in.

First of all, :facepalm: How can one be American and not have seen The Godfather!?


I'm not sure on the wording issue. It could be a slip, or it could be she was trying to roleplay. She's brilliantly formal and loves a certain sense of old-fashioned write voice, and that fits it. To me, it's like indicting Sherlock Holmes for saying 'singular'.

You're alternate theory on the video clip actually reduces my suspicion slightly.

Thank you.


Helium is either playing all of us or really mia and sappho hasn't been setting off my spideysense lately. Buddha and lightleak on the other hand make me all kinds of tingly.
I agree about Buddha for the reasons below.



Sappho prove to me that the BS M aint isn't all that. Vote for P-O
I might since I doubt voting for anyone else wouldn't make a difference to the eventual outcome of the vote, anyway. Still, this won't do anything to exonerate me from your false accusations. If P-O is a townie, people will say I jumped on the bandwagon to save my neck, and I'll have to live with the guilt of having made an imprudent decision. If P-O is a mafioso, people will say I jumped on the bandwagon to save my neck, but at least a mafioso will have been eradicated.

P-O it is for now, then.


How is it insane? I'm failing to see how ent's vote for Utisz somehow proves his innocence.
Yes, but by his tone and behaviour lately I am almost 100% sure than ent is not a mafioso.

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 05:15 PM
Why would Orion repeatedly point out how ent ended up voting right but gloss over the fact that ent started on ferrus and left as soon as he gained momentum?Why does he not suspect a mafia ploy to build a case then jump ship so as to look innocent

This smells familiar. Oh! Right:


It's possible that he switched to Utisz in hopes that things would still swing in ferrus' direction. And then his vote for Utisz would make him appear more innocent.

Connection? Conspiracy? Or Inception?

This argument also directly contradicts your later argument:



It doesn't make any sense why a maf would want to build momentum on utisz. It makes sense that if the maf's thought ferrus was the cop that they'd want to build momentum on ferrus. Why on earth would they do that?



Now this next bit is interesting to me:



My Thinking: At the end of the day, I didn't want the vote to be a forced choice between GnarlFox and Utisz, especially one that looked like it was manufactured by Orion without a reasonable explanation. I didn't think it wise to have our two main options chosen by Orion alone.

Orion had nothing to do with the accusation against Gnarl. You have tons of quotes for other stuff, but this has none to support it. Possibly because it's a bald lie and therefore there is no evidence to support it? I tend to think so.

The truth is I started the bandwagon based on what Light Leak brought to our attention--but she was unwilling to stick until momentum began.

Buddha
06-29-2015, 05:22 PM
At this point it makes no sense to vote for anyone other than P-O. The only way we can be certain that orionzRevenge's claim of being a deputy is correct is by following his suggestion. If he is telling the truth then we gain knowledge that two people are confirmed, living townies. We also potentially kill another mafiosi in P-O.

Furthermore I find it extremely suspicious that OrionzRevenge is incriminating P-O and that instead of an alarm bell going of in P-O's head, like it would in mine, that OrionzRevenge *must* be mafia if he's incriminating me... instead P-O starts trying to divert attention away towards ent.

I would immediately warn my fellow townies that Orionz must be lying about his deputy role, that they should be careful about what he's saying, and perhaps try to work out some kind of deal where he investigates me tonight when he's making his deputy round (because if he is mafia then he won't die tonight).

I find this all very strange.

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 05:25 PM
Excuse me? What on Earth is wrong with that statement?

I think you misunderstood: I thought he was referring to that statement, and I agree: nothing was wrong about that statement. I mistaken about what comment he was referring to. Sorry for the confusion--especially if it persists.




First of all, :facepalm: How can one be American and not have seen The Godfather!?



I know! But I also don't like baseball.

The weirdest thing is, I like gangster films. I think it was started by some youthful rebellion against popular things that then turned into: it's going to suck because it spawned all the cliches I've seen elsewhere.

I never got the chance to watch it with novel eyes because growing up it was referenced so often it seemed I already knew all the big twists. Consequently, it seemed like a waste of time if I was going to know what happened--sort of like if you've never seen Old Yeller, but someone invites you to watch it because it's a classic about shooting your dog. Sort of. It felt like it had been spoiled.

Given my recent discovery I misunderstood that line, I've renewed interest.

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 05:29 PM
:facepalm:

Oh, Buddha. I feel like I know you now.

New short list:

P-O, Light Leak, Buddha.

Sappho is now super low on my radar, which either makes her as devious as Stiggy suggested, or townie. I'm leaning clever townie.

Light Leak
06-29-2015, 05:31 PM
First of all, :facepalm: How can one be American and not have seen The Godfather!?

I have never seen The Godfather either...

OrionzRevenge
06-29-2015, 05:41 PM
Like I said that night, I'm happy to share the blame for MacG. I started the vote for him. The first days kill is almost always a townie. Your expectation that any maf would feel the need to hide from that is nonsense. Everybody should expect to vote wrong the first day. If you manage to get a maf, it's a miracle. The rationale for what you're saying doesn't make any sense.

As to wasting breath: Only mafs want lynch targets to be quiet.

BatShit

Thank You P-O!

I've had to trust my alliance's high threat estimation on you because All I had was your jump being suspicious.

Your very reason offered when you made your leap, with MacG's death nigh assured, and the way you placated my concerns a bit, was with that little Tinker-Toy notion my newly n00b ass was trying to float*** about keeping the vote mostly in two big piles so that we could detect the Maf Cluster OVER TIME. The whole idea is to track from first vote to last Lying-Ass Linguine Licker.

I imagine you laugh when you hear us n00bs spout stupid shit like that on Day 1.

Your statement above is unfortunately often true. The words that were coming out of your mouth as you left MacG to die however was only a plausible excuse feigning concern for Townie Lives.

Your death is as forgone as MacG's was when you felt you could hide from a Day 1 murder of the innocent.

LOL There aint gonna be but One Pile at sunset.

Townies are gonna Love laying on your ass till the bell, and all your Secret Decoder Ring Meeting Buddies?

They are gonna have to be there on ya too.
Only one rule: NO JUMPING

I hope you enjoy contemplating the Irony till night.
As I enjoy knowing that, when your buddies can get up and come stab me in the back, I'll smile knowing no Townie Blood ever stained my hands.


AND

You are absolutely fucking right
you should never tell a Maf to shut his Lying-Ass Mouth.

I should go stand by the edge of the freeway with a sign that reads: Bitch Slap Me Please!!!


***I think Buddha was the one floating something similar at the time too

Sappho
06-29-2015, 05:49 PM
My thoughts on the remaining players (in the order of the OP)

GnarlFox
Seemed fishy when he was up against ferrus. Also I take his persona for someone who wouldn't be disinclined to lie and deceive in order to win not out of ill will but out of not taking a game seriously. Potentially suspect.

Light Leak
I haven't read anything by her that would have roused my suspicion. Hence, Indistinct at present.

Buddha
Showed great zeal and enthusiasm for 'strategy' on Day 1 and subsequently quietened down to almost nothing but his votes. Also went from justly trusting me to making me his prime suspect as soon as interest arose. Very suspect.

Hephaestus
I have no doubt he's cunning and shrewd enough to be on the mafia's side and get away with it. Then again, if he were, he'd probably have made a few cases against certain players differently.* Potentially suspect.

*Regarding the 'clunky' language, let's not forget that English is not my native language and my verbal dexterity is thus limited.

lethe
I had my doubts about her in the beginning, possibly influenced by her bad girl forum persona. But the excuses she's given seem to be genuine if rather wordy but genuine nonetheless. I can't detect anything in her writings that would scream lies to me. Hence, Indistinct at present.

P-O
I literally have no idea. It just seems the right thing to vote for him. Perhaps I am too easily swayed by majority opinions. I actually feel he's Indistinct at present. P-O, my sincere apologies if we put the nail in your coffin and you're a fellow townie. I'd vote for someone else if any of my personal suspects gained momentum.

OrionzRevenge
Wouldn't be playing the squeaky wheel if he was a mafioso. I hope. Perhaps he's having all of us on and doing the :evillaugh: behind his computer screen. I don't know. But I am willing to give him the benefit of doubt. Not immediately suspicious.

ent
For the reasons given above, Not suspect.

helium
Too quiet lately to judge. Indistinct at present.

Sappho
06-29-2015, 05:54 PM
The weirdest thing is, I like gangster films. I think it was started by some youthful rebellion against popular things that then turned into: it's going to suck because it spawned all the cliches I've seen elsewhere.

I never got the chance to watch it with novel eyes because growing up it was referenced so often it seemed I already knew all the big twists. Consequently, it seemed like a waste of time if I was going to know what happened--sort of like if you've never seen Old Yeller, but someone invites you to watch it because it's a classic about shooting your dog. Sort of. It felt like it had been spoiled.

Given my recent discovery I misunderstood that line, I've renewed interest.
Really, watch it. You'll be happy you did. It's one of those movies one can watch over and over and still not graps all its subtleties.

Also, thanks for putting your trust in me. It shan't be betrayed.


I have never seen The Godfather either...
It's not as bad to not have seen it as a woman. A gap in education maybe, but nothing that will make all your friends go "WHAT HOW CAN YOU LIVE WITHOUT HAVING SEEN IT...?"

I suppose it still isn't as bad as not having seen any of the Star Wars movies (lynch me now!).

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 06:00 PM
Hephaestus
I have no doubt he's cunning and shrewd enough to be on the mafia's side and get away with it. Then again, if he were, he'd probably have made a few cases against certain players differently.* Potentially suspect.

*Regarding the 'clunky' language, let's not forget that English is not my native language and my verbal dexterity is thus limited.


If I misread your intent with the asterisk, forgive me, but I didn't make a case against you about your language. I was against the argument against you based on that line for the reason you have in the asterisk--and for the record, your use of English surpasses the average native speaker, it's just you favor phrasing that a contemporary native would mislabel clunky.

Light Leak
06-29-2015, 06:03 PM
It's not as bad to not have seen it as a woman. A gap in education maybe, but nothing that will make all your friends go "WHAT HOW CAN YOU LIVE WITHOUT HAVING SEEN IT...?"

I suppose it still isn't as bad as not having seen any of the Star Wars movies (lynch me now!).

I did have to study The Godfather in a film class. So I've seen a few scenes and learned all about the significance of those scenes and everything - the meaning of the oranges and whatnot. I've just never actually seen the film.

I've seen Star Wars (all except), but I never saw what the big deal was.

Sappho
06-29-2015, 06:04 PM
If I misread your intent with the asterisk, forgive me, but I didn't make a case against you about your language. I was against the argument against you based on that line for the reason you have in the asterisk--and for the record, your use of English surpasses the average native speaker, it's just you favor phrasing that a contemporary native would mislabel clunky.

Ah, that was nice of you. Thank you. :smooch:

Light Leak
06-29-2015, 06:04 PM
^
all except episode 3...

Sappho
06-29-2015, 06:07 PM
^
all except episode 3...

If this were about The Godfather, this would be my precise viewing recommendation.

Buddha
06-29-2015, 06:15 PM
Sappho: I suspect you for two reasons:

- You mentioned in one of your posts that you'd sent no PM's during this game. I know that is not true. You also know that is not true. You know that I have proof in my inbox that it is not true.
- You wanted to get into a voting block with me. I knew from the start that somebody in the mafia would have offered to join. I've been monitoring your posts over the last days as well and something just seems suspicious.

I don't know why I am suspect for sharing what I thinking. If there's something wrong about what I'm saying I'm open to hearing it.

As for posting less in the last couple of days... I'm not going to cast accusations all over the place unless I'm reasonably sure something is strange. I'm rather more in favor of aiming and firing accusations than I am of the blanket volley others seem to prefer.

I was in favor of voting for ferrus because he acted suspicious and I didn't trust OrionzRevenge's "Vote my way and I'll vote your way next time" offer.
I was in favor of voting for Utisz because he was mafia.
I am in favor of voting for P-O because I want to know if we can trust our deputy - as mentioned in my last post

If there would be nothing better to go on, I'd have offered to vote for sappho. For the reasons I've mentioned above. But I think it's *more* important and better strategy at this point to check out if OrionzRevenge is who he says he is.

How am I not helping the townies?

Light Leak
06-29-2015, 06:29 PM
Buddha - Where is this post where Sappho mentions not sending any PM's during the game? I recall her saying that she had spoken with ferrus about something unrelated to the game, but I didn't see her say anything about not sending PM's.

GnarlFox
06-29-2015, 06:33 PM
GnarlFox
Seemed fishy when he was up against ferrus. Also I take his persona for someone who wouldn't be disinclined to lie and deceive in order to win not out of ill will but out of not taking a game seriously. Potentially suspect.

What do you think I've lied about? What is this I'm hearing about a voting block?

GnarlFox
06-29-2015, 06:38 PM
^
all except episode 3...

Same. Episode 2 was so horrendously bad coming off the shit that was Episode 1 that I never watched 3 and I've seen the original trilogy at least twenty times. Everyone seems to say its better than 1 and 2, and some fans have convinced themselves that it's not shit but have no interest in watching any of the prequels.

Sappho
06-29-2015, 06:44 PM
Sappho: I suspect you for two reasons:

- You mentioned in one of your posts that you'd sent no PM's during this game. I know that is not true. You also know that is not true. You know that I have proof in my inbox that it is not true.


Buddha - Where is this post where Sappho mentions not sending any PM's during the game? I recall her saying that she had spoken with ferrus about something unrelated to the game, but I didn't see her say anything about not sending PM's.

What Light Leak said. I'm not going to give up my real, private correspondence with members I esteem just because it apparently makes few people in this thread angsty about my role in a silly game.


- You wanted to get into a voting block with me. I knew from the start that somebody in the mafia would have offered to join. I've been monitoring your posts over the last days as well and something just seems suspicious.
I did not want to get into a voting block with you, I was hoping to find a trustworthy soul apart from stigmatica and you seemed trustworthy enough at the time. If I remember correctly, it was you who on the first day proposed to form a townie coalition of trust with other legit innocents willing.


How am I not helping the townies?
By casting threadbare accusations on one of your kin if you are a townie, that is. If you're mafia, you might merely be preparing the trap to have other townies lynch me during the next round. Neither of these scenarios makes you very trustworthy at the moment.

Sappho
06-29-2015, 06:48 PM
Same. Episode 2 was so horrendously bad coming off the shit that was Episode 1 that I never watched 3 and I've seen the original trilogy at least twenty times. Everyone seems to say its better than 1 and 2, and some fans have convinced themselves that it's not shit but have no interest in watching any of the prequels.

As for the Godfather, I + II are great. III is such a lousy job it is legendary.

I'd absolutely watch a prequel to Godfather I, however. Oh wait – that's already been given in the second film. Well then.

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 06:49 PM
I am in favor of voting for P-O because I want to know if we can trust our deputy - as mentioned in my last post

This is actually a one way test. He hasn't asserted anyone's guilt--or more precisely, he hasn't made a claim to have read anyone and determined they were mafia. He's only asserted he's checked two people whom both came up townie, and strongly doesn't suspect two more.

That he has two people listed as townie is actually useful because if he is a Deputy, then we can be sure that at least one of those people isn't mafia. Personally, I'm not 100% on lethe not being the Godfather (the Godfather's power is usually that they read as townie when investigated) but I am 100% on me. I'm sure that if lethe is townie, she feels the other way round.

It's also very unlikely at this point that Ozzy is mafia. If he were, there would be no point in the actions he's made today. He could have safely maintained his present trajectory and the mafia almost certainly would have won. His actions today changed that.

I'm inclined to believe him because of how significant an impact his reversals make. It could be a cunning mafia ploy, but the problem there is: they didn't need a cunning ploy. Things were going their way. Now things are not so clearly in their favor.

As always, this is about perceived probabilities, and I could just be wrong, but this is how it appears to me.

Further, given what I know and what I think I know, I am confident of 3/5 people that Ozzy claims are town are town. I'm also very confident that Sappho is town.

That leaves four people in the pool, and I'm fairly certain it's stocked with mafiosos.

But here's the rub: it's also got at least one townie in it. That keeps things uncertain.

Ozzy never said any specific person in that group was mafia, therefore:

If P-O comes up mafia, it won't mean Ozzy is a Deputy.

If P-O comes up town, it won't mean Ozzy isn't a Deputy.

But given all the evidence, it would be foolhardy not to go with the restricted pool because everything points to it being the most probable place we will be successful.

Presently, P-O is the person reading most probable to me within that restricted set.



How am I not helping the townies?

You are not helping the townies because while your thinking is on track, what you've stated sets the stage for the mafia to convince us to lynch Ozzy tomorrow by not killing him in the night. It would be a ballsy play, but it could net the mafia a win.

If we are wrong about P-O being mafia, but I (and others) are right about Ozzy being town, and we lynch Ozzy for being alive, that's game over and the mafia wins.

Even if Ozzy is alive tomorrow: we shouldn't lynch him. If he comes up with a mafioso read (which is likely given he'll be picking from three people, of whom I estimate at least 2 are mafia), we lynch them, not him.

If he comes up with another apparent Vanilla Townie, then we'll have a pool of two to choose from.

I believe this strategy is our best shot of getting at least one more mafioso between today and tomorrow. I think we'd be very unlucky to miss both days--which is good, because we only have two days to bag the next one.


The downside is, now we've all but guaranteed Ozzy gets killed tonight, because that strategy won't work. But I don't want to risk holding my tongue on it and being the next target because the mafia is shitting it's pants at my Ti and Ozzy's Ne playing nice.

You know they are. We can all smell it. Some you more directly than others.

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 06:52 PM
It's also very unlikely at this point that Ozzy is mafia. If he were, there would be no point in the actions he's made today. He could have safely maintained his present [b]previous[b] trajectory and the mafia almost certainly would have won. His actions today changed that.

ftfm

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 06:54 PM
*sigh

It's also very unlikely at this point that Ozzy is mafia. If he were, there would be no point in the actions he's made today. He could have safely maintained his present previous trajectory and the mafia almost certainly would have won. His actions today changed that.

ftfm for realsies this time. I hope.

Buddha
06-29-2015, 06:56 PM
What Light Leak said. I'm not going to give up my real, private correspondence with members I esteem just because it apparently makes few people in this thread angsty about my role in a silly game.

Saying "I did not PM with anyone in relation to this game" is a lie. Not breeching trust is saying: "I'd rather not say". Not not saying anything - because you *offered* this information about not PM'ing with anyone in the game yourself, without being probed.

I suspect you just forgot about it or didn't bother to think about it too much because your inbox is full of PM's with your fellow mafia.


I did not want to get into a voting block with you, I was hoping to find a trustworthy soul apart from stigmatica and you seemed trustworthy enough at the time. If I remember correctly, it was you who on the first day proposed to form a townie coalition of trust with other legit innocents willing.

Makes no sense with only two people. I said this in the thread, I believe.


By casting threadbare accusations on one of your kin – if you are a townie, that is. If you're mafia, you might merely be preparing the trap to have other townies lynch me during the next round. Neither of these scenarios makes you very trustworthy at the moment.

What I'm saying is not an accusation. I'm not saying P-O is mafia. I'm saying that it seems best to me to vote for him.

Sappho
06-29-2015, 07:04 PM
Saying "I did not PM with anyone in relation to this game" is a lie. Not breeching trust is saying: "I'd rather not say". Not not saying anything - because you *offered* this information about not PM'ing with anyone in the game yourself, without being probed.

I suspect you just forgot about it or didn't bother to think about it too much because it's merely a game and a minor side interest while your inbox is full of PM's with your fellow mafia from good people indifferent to this thread who deserve a timely response].
FTFY


Makes no sense with only two people. I said this in the thread, I believe.
Then neither does a "voting block".


What I'm saying is not an accusation. I'm not saying P-O is mafia. I'm saying that it seems [B]best to me to vote for him.

Entirely unrelated to my quote. By the by best to you or best for you? Why best for you and not best for all of us?

You're not becoming any less suspicious at all.

Buddha
06-29-2015, 07:07 PM
Hephaestus

I know there's only going to be certainty about his role if we lynch a mafia, or orionzrevenge gets killed at night.
What do we have to go on that is better?

I'm going from the following:

The odds that OrionzRevenge is a townie are higher than those of anyone else in this thread. If he is townie he will never deliberately propose lynching off a townie at night. It's the best I have to go on.

Sappho
06-29-2015, 07:10 PM
The odds that OrionzRevenge is a townie are higher than those of anyone else in this thread. If he is townie he will never deliberately propose lynching off a townie at night. It's the best I have to go on.

You do realise that only the mafia kills at night while townies lynch during the day?

:huh:

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 07:16 PM
Hephaestus

I know there's only going to be certainty about his role if we lynch a mafia, or orionzrevenge gets killed at night.
What do we have to go on that is better?

I'm going from the following:

The odds that OrionzRevenge is a townie are higher than those of anyone else in this thread. If he is townie he will never deliberately propose lynching off a townie at night. It's the best I have to go on.

First: Lynching a mafia does not make his role certain. You've missed half the argument, but it was long.

Second: I don't understand what you mean by 'never deliberately proposed lynching off a townie at night'. I'm not being deliberately dense, I honestly don't understand what you mean.


Third: I get the sneaking suspicion that your present line of argument with Sappho stems from taking notes. I've said many times this game that arguments about PM's screw up the game--which implies a town loss.

It's possible that you are being honest in your accusation. I can't possibly know. My complete lack of ability to verify means that you can also be a mafia, making a safe lie to cast suspicion on Sappho because at the very least, she's fallen off my radar and that brings the town closer to rooting you out.

So I'm going to do you a solid and pretend that whole line of discussion never happened. Regardless of your faction, that's a boon to you and to the town. It has been my experience that bringing PM's into thread rhetoric consistently hurts the town and very very very very very rarely manages to help the town--and when it does it's usually by accident.

Stick to quotes we can all see or your evidence is just vapor and wishing in the wind--no better than a rep from the dead.

Buddha
06-29-2015, 07:29 PM
Sappho and Hephaestus

I meant: he'd never deliberately propose, in this thread, to lynch off a townie during the day - unlike what somebody in the mafia would do. So it gives the best odds, as far as I can see.

Buddha
06-29-2015, 07:32 PM
For the record, if OrionzRevenge changes his proposal to anyone else today, I am following him.

And if we know for certain that he is the deputy and that hephaestus and lethe are townies then I am always going to vote along with them in the future.

This is a 100% guarantee (Unless they vote for me).

OrionzRevenge
06-29-2015, 08:12 PM
For the record, if OrionzRevenge changes his proposal to anyone else today, I am following him.

And if we know for certain that he is the deputy and that hephaestus and lethe are townies then I am always going to vote along with them in the future.

This is a 100% guarantee (Unless they vote for me).
:lol:

After Talking with P-O, I don't see why I would want to do anything but sit on him till night.
I haven't spilled Town Blood yet and I want to walk into the night with a perfect record.

I guess there is some chance I might return in the morning. But I'm not planning on it.
The Mafs fucked up and they gave me this day by taking Stiggy instead.

Ironically, reading P-O's analysis of the remaining players (Wherein he said I seemed desperate) and then thinking about Stiggy, and how my being somewhat suspect of him kept me from heading some good advice about ending the shit with Heph.

As for P-O's analysis: Of course I was desperate, this day was a gift from the Mob and I was sitting on two investigations detect innocence and not guilt.

I also got to thinking that I might have been able to save ferrus if I had not let emotions cloud things so much.

I decided to take this chance and make this day and Stiggy's Blood mean something.

I'm looking forward to the sunset.

GO TOWNIES!

Hephaestus
06-29-2015, 10:56 PM
Sappho and Hephaestus

I meant: he'd never deliberately propose, in this thread, to lynch off a townie during the day - unlike what somebody in the mafia would do. So it gives the best odds, as far as I can see.

Ok, thanks for clarifying. Maybe I'm dumb--so I apologize if this is frustrating. I'm just making sure I understand.

What I'm reading is you are saying: "I believe he's a townie because a townie wouldn't deliberately try to lynch another townie."

Is that correct?

Buddha
06-30-2015, 12:14 AM
Ok, thanks for clarifying. Maybe I'm dumb--so I apologize if this is frustrating. I'm just making sure I understand.

What I'm reading is you are saying: "I believe he's a townie because a townie wouldn't deliberately try to lynch another townie."

Is that correct?

All I'm saying is: I'm a townie who has absolutely no certainty whatsover about any of you guys.
when someone claims to know certain things.... based on rules that make sense (cop role and deputy role)... then I'm going align with those people. Not because I'm sure, but because the more extreme the claims the informative they are.

Hephaestus
06-30-2015, 12:22 AM
All I'm saying is: I'm a townie who has absolutely no certainty whatsover about any of you guys.
when someone claims to know certain things.... based on rules that make sense (cop role and deputy role)... then I'm going align with those people. Not because I'm sure, but because the more extreme the claims the informative they are.

Ok. That makes sense to me. Thank you.

OrionzRevenge
06-30-2015, 03:55 AM
P-O

When last I spoke with you P-O I lashed out harshly remembering all the good men that had fallen by the hand of the mafs.

But now as you lay where MacG once did and know that same hopelessness, I began to feel the burden that all good people do when they vote to kill someone and can't be 100% certain of their guilt.

And so much has happened since that late afternoon.
So much death
So many deceptions by those that would lurk in the dark, and revel when innocent blood falls.
And how the fear of what waits for the sun to fall
And the deceptions
The things that can't be known for certain
The burden to find the right choice sets good people to bicker violently as they struggle not to let innocent blood be shed.

That eve when MacG died seems so very long ago now
so much death
so many hard things to decide
Fantastic things too, like an inexplicable vision that ferrus' was my greatest ally and I needed to save him.

But all these things jumble and memory can not keep it all.
The burden of your blood made me go back into the records to be as sure as I could that you are where you should be now.

I had forgotten how my first ally to stand with me against Utisz and defend, at first, GnarlFox and then ferrus: ent

Had pointed out that though you jumped onto him you wrote my name in the ledger
I also re-read exactly how you described your reasoning for the leap.
So it strongly suggest that I was indeed on your mind when you contemplated leaping off MacG and onto ent


I feel less burden now for what must be P-O.
I know other good people are wondering too is this surly Maf blood we spill?

I'll below included records from that eve so that the people can remember that the words you spoke to me today as to your reasoning, are not the words you spoke when MacG died.

================================================== =========


I make it about 5 hours 20 minutes or so to go?

I'm going to vote MacGuffin because he hasn't posted much, he reads a little bit Mafia to me, and there's not been much else to go off right now.

Current tally:

ferrus: (1)
Buddha

lethe: (1)
OrionzRevenge

MacGuffin: (5)
P-O
Hephaestus
Light Leak
helium
Utisz

ent: (2)
lethe
Sappho

helium: (1)
LowIQLogan

Utisz: (1)
stigmatica



Left to vote:
prometheus
GnarlFox
ferrus
MacGuffin
ent



You bastards!

I'm going to be the most innocent mob kill in this game.


I'm going to change my vote to ent.


ferrus: (1)
Buddha

lethe: (1)
OrionzRevenge
ent

MacGuffin: (4)
Hephaestus
Light Leak
helium
Utisz

ent: (3)
lethe
Sappho
P-O

helium: (1)
LowIQLogan

Utisz: (1)
stigmatica

Gnarlfox(1)
prometheus (I'm assuming you meant this to be a vote)


I just checked, and 36 hours are already up, if I'm not mistaken. So my changed vote is meaningless perhaps.

But the idea was, It's more informative to have 2 close options to lynch than it is to have 1 option very full with the rest of the votes scattered among 6 other options.

If there are 2 close options, the mafia might be tempted to switch their vote away from a maf and dogpile on the innocent guy.... anyway if it's too late, it's a useful thing to think about in the future. We want to make it hard for the mafias to blend in. The scatter shot voting makes it very easy to blend because they can just vote for anyone without being suspicious.


Night started at 5 am est. Night will last 12 hours or until all I get all the night PMs.


What about the results of the lynch?


I'm going to list the day and night deaths together at the start of every new day. All of you can keep talking in this thread meanwhile.




[QUOTE=Tony;116062] holy shit, what a fucking typo. sorry guys!


^
That typo almost made me spit coffee all over my computer.


I vote MacGuffin.


This is how those ISIS prisoners feel.

I will haunt you all.


Why did you not vote? At least make an attempt to save yourself?


How does that save me?

I don't really know what I'm doing. I am building an enemies list though.


There was at least a 1 in 16 chance that your vote would have swayed my vote. I was looking for it. I may not have been the only one.


I guess technically 1 in 15.


I don't know who to vote for. Too little information.

Though my death will clarify things.


You will make a fine martyr. Your death will not be forgotten.


Maybe I was unlucky and the mafia targeted me for elimination. As a non-threat though this doesn't seem likely.

Voters #3-5 , who jumped on once the ball was rolling however, I'd be very suspicious. VERY SUSPICIOUS.


I suppose we have a sadistic town. We don't just lynch people here. We send them to the torturer to be slowly killed over a 12 hour period while the torturer finds out the truth of their role.


You've been playing suspicious.

Then Sappho jumped in with you and now p-o rushed into to vote against me once I voted against you.

Seems like every one of you is looking for an easier person to frame as mafia to draw attention away from yourselves.





If I'm going to draw suspicion for misspelling a word it's immensely more suspicious that you're attempting to manipulating vote counts.


Your Death,
Nothing can prevent that now
...But you still have a chance to Save Luke!

Shoot, I was hoping you were saying that you died a gangster before committing a crime.

The Mafia pile-on idea has merit but I think only if we had one or more of theirs in the cross-hairs as well.

Otherwise it would be better to spread the mob vote among the innocent & accused.

Hopefully you are right to some measure and in time we'll develop the pattern.

If you are truly Innocent MacG,
RIP


Be happy I wrote your name at all, I forgot gnarlfox's vote all together. Do you seriously think the fact that i forgot to change the number from 1 to 2 is going to impact the (already ended) vote where Macguffin had 4 votes cast for him? In the future you could ensure accuracy by tallying your vote for yourself instead of leaving it to somebody else.


You seem to be ignoring the large fact that you didn't know that voting had ended when you did that.


So explain how it would affect the outcome then.


Yeah, I agree with P-O about keeping the vote mostly between two accused as it allows us to quickly locate the pattern of the Mob protecting their scarce blood (That was at the root of the half-ass idea I proposed), but switching at the the 13th. hour would give credence to to what MacG was saying about a pile-on. Only that it became an unnecessary risk once MacG's conviction was assured. P-O
Dude, that looks suspicious.


What's suspicious about it? Are you saying i was trying to protect Macguffin? It only would have affected the outcome if somebody ELSE voted for ent in the last moment. That person would have been (likely) a maf who acted in the heat of the moment.


It's early on in the game, so if the mafs did something like that it would definitely be to our benefit.

...
This is all assuming Macguffin turns out to be maf at all... which unfortunately isn't the likely case. It's most important to maximize our information rather than expecting to just hit mafs with our lynches every day.


I'm saying if one or more Thugs were accused as well, then as MacG said, it would make sense for the Mob to risk a pile-on of one innocent to assure the survival of the accused Thugs. Once however MacG's conviction was assured it might give a Mobster pause remembering that he/she is playing with a bunch of clever people.

I think you are a clever person as well, and I doubt this clarification was truly necessary.


I think it's most likely that the mafia just let townies go after each other this round. I doubt they tried to manipulate votes this early on since the chances of us hitting mafia this early is slim.


Not really.

Let's assume Gnarlfox is right about there being 3 Thugs.

There is a 19% chance of purely random selection of a Mobster by chance.

And 7 of the 16 players were under the gun.


Well I guess I'm not clever then. It's such an attention drawing move. It doesn't make sense that it would be used as a way to hide.


I stand by my rationale for lynching Macguffin. And i stand by my reasoning for switching.


True, it's not a rational smoking gun. But I'll still have to ponder if it was panic.


With everyone grasping at the slightest hint of suspicion, it was an unwise move either way.


Well, it WAS a bit later than it should have been... Considering the voting had ended. But I think the idea was correct. I don't support the idea of townies being cautious about their reputation.

The only ones who should be careful are the special roles. Vanilla townies should be on offense.


I was really hoping that was some newfangled turn of phrase, but yeah, I voted for prometheus.



It's a bit weird with all the night talk but you showed up late to the poll box which means your vote shouldn't count. Why didn't you vote on time? P-O's vote change wouldn't count either.



So everyone who votes for you must be Mafia? You were saying that it was bullshit for misspelling a word to matter and then you turn the same reasoning back at others? Okay.

Why do you think you're such a threat? It seems to me that the votes could just be a reaction to your reaction to the game. What is so suspicious of lethe, or Sappho? If anything, people voting for you could have divided the vote and almost did - the Mafia would not want this. It sucks that MacGuffin was a townie but it seems odd that you think Mafia, instead of hiding in behind that vote or spreading out their vote, would go after you instead. Either you are very defensive, don't understand how the game works, are Mafia, or a combination thereof but you're sounding increasingly Mafia to me.


Townies suspecting everyone and questioning everyone is a good thing.

Townies doing things that look inexplicably suspicious plays into the Mafia's hands.


I read it as ferrus just being playful after the fact.

Missing the vote is another question, but I suspect is has to do with ferrus being in Kent and being a night-owl. Once MacG's conviction was a foregone conclusion, it would be stupid for a Maf not to vote for someone.

If they were awake.


There is also the idea that if a mafia sees that a townie has the majority vote anyways there is no need to take a risk voting for someone and giving the townies information about who you are willing to vote for. IMO this could be the same type of mafia play as keeping quiet and not posting. It is more suspicious to me that it was a well established no lifer.

I also agree with Hephaestus that mistakes in the voting tally are not condemnations. They are easy to fuck up. Ent, I guess the difference between spelling your a word correctly and counting the everchanging paranoid accusations consistently might be something only aspie mouthbreathers (INTPs) understand.


Tentative trust list
stigmatica (sounds honest)
Buddha (very invested in winning strategy)
LowIQLogan (typical townie attitude)
P-O (intuition)

...possibly GnarlFox, too.

Something's Fishy list
ent (for reasons previously discussed, and a strangely excessive, latent petulance)
ferrus (suspiciously, and uncharacteristically, quiet)

No Opinion Yet list
prometheus
Light Leak
Utisz
Hephaestus
lethe
OrionzRevenge
helium


Or I'm mocking the selection process that was applied to me by applying it to those who used it against me....

fire with fire...



Now you're going on record as to what the mafia wants? How do you know this?

It's not that I'm a threat, which as a townie(happy now?) I'm not, it's that I'm an easy mark because everyone is generally aware of my forum persona(s).

As for my suspicions of the attempted vote changes it has nothing to do with changing the outcome of this round but setting up the board for tomorrow.


Okay, I interpreted the response differently.

The Mafia specifically want to kill townies and so to them a divided vote on a townie--which MacGuffin was--is often, if not always, worthless. As for people voting for you, if you look back or recall, originally it was because you hadn't posted anything or one fluff post - and how you responded when questioned on that.


I have been quiet because I wanted to see how the dynamics of the game were going to unfold, instead of going into gung-ho like last time.

I find it extremely interesting Utisz picked up on that so quickly.

Fitz
06-30-2015, 05:07 AM
Gotta kill someone might as well be P-O.

OrionzRevenge
06-30-2015, 07:17 AM
I think Stiggy was killed because he was too obviously townie. By this, I mean that he kept showing up on the most trusted townie lists--and he'd accidently bent a rule with a question on day 2 that telegraphed he was almost certainly townie.

Maf hate confirmed townies almost as much as confirmed specials, which is why it's a bad grotesque and terrible idea to give them insight to either.

He was also on my most probably townie list, that I didn't give him because I didn't want to paint a bullseye on his back.

There were other reasons to off him too though. He was level headed and curious. Those are good townie traits. He also did nothing to create tension, and if anything eased it.

Was going back over this day.

Good ideas Heph.

I have taunted the Mafs for giving me this day but I'm also very grateful. If they can get a knife in my back tonight they damn well better.

But not only did it allow the Town to finally go on the offensive, it has taught this arrogant n00b a great deal.

When Heph sat down with us today, ready with his Threat Analysis and obviously thinking about moves & votes to come, it made fully cognizant of how little I know of this game. No, actually I'm so ignorant of the game, I don't know just how ignorant that is.

I've never been where this game will lead now, and where many of you have been many times.

No, I've strutted about as THE RIGHTEOUS DEFENDER with my BatShit meter strapped to my side.
But there will be days to come when there'll need to be calls made that I don't know if I could make.

Heph has been a lot more right than wrong about me, as many of you skilled players know...and I haven't much of a clue.

I don't even know what the odds are of having a third special role in the game and it being a protector.

But I'm gonna cross my fingers. Not for me so much, but I have to admit I'd really like to spend another playing this role, But mostly I love to bring back another investigation for the town.

So when the most probable fate comes tonight, and in exchange for my gratitude for this day, Yes, I wont want it to end.


GO TOWNIES!
Kill'em All!

Hephaestus
06-30-2015, 08:04 AM
OrionzRevenge

My guess is Stiggy gave away my weaknesses: I don't get mad without reason, and I respect humility.

FWIW, you figured out how to step back from thinking yourself a hero of the town and start thinking about how to be a member of it sooner than I did--but I didn't have Stiggy to help--I just thought I was being harried by harpies.

Took me three games to figure it out.

Granted, the second game I was in was strictly so everyone could re-interpret a scene from Airplane:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0GW0Vnr9Yc

GnarlFox
06-30-2015, 08:05 AM
Yes, you came down really hard on Hephaestus. I didn't want to get involved as it ballooned past the point of the game. If the Mafia grab you, know that you helped deescalate the rivalry and by doing this you've helped the town by saving it from itself. You've got us some reads in the process, and I wanted to thank you for hearing me out when it seemed like nobody else would.

Hephaestus
06-30-2015, 08:05 AM
^^^Pretty sure you can guess which part I played.

GnarlFox
06-30-2015, 08:22 AM
^^^Pretty sure you can guess which part I played.

Haha. I realize what part you played. Without you it could have been someone else, or nobody. These things are never certain, but I read your reasoning and it was sound and that's saying I understand what you did and why. That's why I don't suspect you. The fight between you two got really, really nasty. I'm glad stigmatica tried to add some humor and I tried a bit but I didn't want it to spread, and I didn't like that much of it was about me either. I'm glad it's over, and I know that it probably wouldn't be if it wasn't you who OrionzRevenge was fighting against. That's a compliment. OrionzRevenge, I'm glad you came around and thought it all over. A lot of people I meet never do. So I'm glad of that as well.