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Kyuri
01-06-2014, 03:53 AM
Day Two has begun! I was going to use the same thread, but I realized that the time was getting a bit unclear, plus it was helpful last game to see how many posts each person had in a specific Day. This Day phase will end 48 hours from the time of this post.

Osito Polar has been killed. He was Vanilla Townie.

I'm so sorry, I hope you still want to do the flavor. Hey, it might be fun to write your own death!

For the record, it goes... Day phase->Night phase = 1 Day. Day phase is always 48 hours from the time of the announcement post. Night phase lasts 12 hours or until I have all the Night action.

Randall
01-06-2014, 03:58 AM
I've been diddled again!

Osito Polar
01-06-2014, 04:02 AM
I'm so sorry, I hope you still want to do the flavor. Hey, it might be fun to write your own death!

Oh heck yeah I'll do the flavor. If there's anything you want me to include in it (manga/anime images? messages from the Mafia?), please let me know via PM. If you're not named Kyuri please don't PM me about the game at this point since I'll be writing the stories and I don't want them to include hints even unintentionally. I'll stay out of the play threads, so Kyuri please give me a heads up with who will be killed next in my story.

Kyuri
01-06-2014, 04:07 AM
Polemarch has been killed. He was Vanilla Townie! Markings on the body suggest it wasn't the Mafia.

Also, I stress that this is a Day phase killing.

Kyuri
01-06-2014, 04:12 AM
Oh heck yeah I'll do the flavor. If there's anything you want me to include in it (manga/anime images? messages from the Mafia?), please let me know via PM. If you're not named Kyuri please don't PM me about the game at this point since I'll be writing the stories and I don't want them to include hints even unintentionally. I'll stay out of the play threads, so Kyuri please give me a heads up with who will be killed next in my story.

Thanks! Will do, but like above I suspect I will only be able to give limited notice.

Osito Polar
01-06-2014, 04:29 AM
The INTP girls walked together through the featureless landscape of the all-female anime world they appeared to be trapped in. Madrigal looked at her phone for navigational hints.

"I think we need to go over there."

"You mean west?" asked Hephaestus.

"I think so."

"You mean past that nothing, and over by that more nothing over there?" asked JollyBard.

Light Leak looked at her suspiciously, wondering if she was being sarcastic or not. It was actually a fairly accurate description of where they were going.

http://static.zerochan.net/Azumanga.Daioh.full.885576.jpg

Yuno cleared her throat.

"What is it?" asked Randall.

"Umm ... this is kind of embarrassing. I hesitate to even mention it, but ... "

"What is it? Are we going to sacrifice LowIQLogan now?" Madrigal clapped her hands happily and held up her iPhone and the mini-usb cable.

"Hey! I said 'not it'." protested Logan.

"Yeah, I know." She scuffed her foot disappointedly and pouted.

Yuno said "Did any of you notice that Polemarch is dead?"

"Wha-huh?!" asked Polemarch.

P-O looked at her and pushed her finger into the bloody wounds on Polemarch's torso.

"Hey stop it! That tickles!"

Chobani looked at her, tilting her head sideways to get a better look. "Ooooh! She's right. You're stone cold dead right now. Does it hurt?"

Polemarch thought about it. "No. I think it hurt a little bit when I actually died, but since then it's been remarkably tranquil. Peaceful. Umm ... I can't totally recommend it because there's this weird thing on my back. Did you see it?" She turned around so they could get a look.

"WHOA! When did that happen? You have a full-back Hello Kitty tattoo, seriously like are you going for Sanrio yakuza style or something!?"

"No, I've always had that. I meant below it."

"By this flower tramp stamp?"

"Yeah."

"Oh. Is that a parasite?" asked Dirac.

"Is it contagious?" asked Madrigal, pulling back.

"No ... it's markings." said Hephaestus.

"What kind of markings?" asked P-O.

"I don't know. Markings. The meta-author of this script wasn't more specific than that, so the writers didn't have anything to go on. Maybe it's a rune. Or in Braille." Hephaestus squinted as the marks.

"Well, if there's one thing we know, this sign means Polemarch was not killed by the hidden enemies that lurk among us." said Yuno.

"How do you know?" asked Osito Polar.

"Trust me. I know things." Yuno nodded sagely.

At that moment, Polemarch's eyes rolled back in her head and she fell over.

Polemarch has been killed. He was Vanilla Townie! Markings on the body suggest it wasn't the Mafia.

Madrigal
01-06-2014, 04:31 AM
Day Two has begun! I was going to use the same thread, but I realized that the time was getting a bit unclear, plus it was helpful last game to see how many posts each person had in a specific Day. This Day phase will end 48 hours from the time of this post.

Osito Polar has been killed. He was Vanilla Townie.


This may sound like a dumb question, but who killed Oso? The mafia?

I assume a vigilante killed Polemarch.

Noir
01-06-2014, 04:38 AM
What the fuck is going on?! Shit. Shit. Shit. Okay, I think we can now say with some degree of confidence, that a "Vigilante" Special exists, yes? Goddammit!!! That's what? Three Townies down in one day? Thanks a lot asshole, whoever you are (please don't kill me!). There is a kind of poetic justice to it though, since it was Polemarch that doubted my breakdown of the Townie/Mafia/Special proportions in the first place. Vigilante is a non-traditional role, yes? I think this rather implies that there could be other non-traditional roles as well.

This is the way I see it: I still think it's 50/25/25ish, which would mean that there are 5 Vanillas, 3-4 Mafia, 1 Vigilante, and 3-4 Specials we don't know about yet. If we kill too many more Townies without scoring at least one Mafia, it's going to start affecting the votes. The Mafia are already coordinating to take down certain key members. It's possible they even incited the suspicion against Polemarch that ultimately got him killed by the (then unknown) Vigilante. What I propose then would be something like the "town watch" I mentioned in a previous post, a counter-insurgency operating via pm that could coordinate and exchange information. But in order to do that we need the remaining Specials.

Here's what I propose: If there are any Specials capable of identifying players (detectives/police) they should form a network with those they've cleared. That way, by Day 3-4, we will have a counter-insurgency as large or larger than that of the Mafia. Understand, these members could then protect one another while simultaneously identifying suspicious members on the boards. What do you guys think?

Kyuri
01-06-2014, 04:41 AM
This may sound like a dumb question, but who killed Oso? The mafia?

I assume a vigilante killed Polemarch.

Yep, Mafia killed Osos.

Live list:

Osito Polar vanilla townie
Madrigal
Hephaestus
md5fungi vanilla townie
mccrissanth
Randall
Polemarch vanilla townie
Dirac
Light Leak
JollyBard
chobani
Noir
LowIQLogan
Works
P-O
Etherealsage

Hephaestus
01-06-2014, 04:43 AM
Osito Polar -- Townie
Madrigal -- I'm still leaning townie for the reason I previously stated.
Hephaestus -- I'm on team townie.
md5fungi -- Townie
mccrissanth -- The low participation, including not voting, has her as the new top of my list.
Randall -- Randall is still barely a nonplayer. His only posts of substance are to arrange his defense for being quiet.
Polemarch -- Townie
Dirac -- No change yet.
Light Leak -- No strong inclination either way.
JollyBard -- Almost certainly a townie.
chobani -- No change.
Noir -- No change.
LowIQLogan -- Second on my list of lowest communicators because it's out of character for him.
Works -- He's made some interesting challenges to Ethereal Sage.
P-O -- Reads as probable townie to me, though I think his challenge to Jolly was a bit aggressive. But could just be paranoid. I'd like to read more of what he's actually thinking.
Etherealsage -- Cagey, but might actually be doing what he is saying he's doing: attending to life. I think it's been about 50/50 on mafia or townies having lower participation because they were busy attending to reality, so it seems like a null tell. Still, his refusal to play in Maddy's game seems suspicious. I mean, it's one of the few times she's actually going to give you something like an interpretation.


My short list: mccrissanth, LowIQLogan, Randall

My current vote: mccrissanth

P-O
01-06-2014, 04:44 AM
Here's what I propose: If there are any Specials capable of identifying players (detectives/police) they should form a network with those they've cleared. That way, by Day 3-4, we will have a counter-insurgency as large or larger than that of the Mafia. Understand, these members could then protect one another while simultaneously identifying suspicious members on the boards. What do you guys think?

I think it'd be easy for the mafia to pretend to be the police... and get townies killed.

Noir
01-06-2014, 04:47 AM
:sadbanana:

Noir
01-06-2014, 04:49 AM
Okay: Only recruit specials then, and tell them what their role is.

Hephaestus
01-06-2014, 04:51 AM
I agree. A counter insurgency is a "who shall bell the cat" scenario. It more or less has to be detective lead, but as you've already pointed out, there may be non-traditional roles in play, which means the possibility of a Godfather or Miller.

Plus, playing in PM's makes you look very suspicious. It's the mafia who spend all their time communicating via PM.

P-O
01-06-2014, 05:01 AM
Okay: Only recruit specials then, and tell them what their role is.
Well whatever. I'm saying I wouldn't trust a pm from a supposed detective telling me what to do and that you shouldn't either.

Osito Polar
01-06-2014, 05:02 AM
http://www.studentsoftheworld.info/sites/tv/img/40936_lucky.png

The INTP girls stood circled around the dead body of their friend Polemarch.

"Should we ... bury her?" asked Dirac.

"Maybe we should cremate her." suggested Light Leak.

"I think Polemarch was a Baha'i. Do they cremate people?" said JollyBard.

"I have no idea." said P-O.

"I think I could say a few words. Umm ... Polemarch was a man before we came here. But she looked really good in a schoolgirl uniform after we came to this anime world. Uhh ... and I think she liked cars or something. Didn't she live in Chicago? She probably enjoyed eating hot dogs and watching the Bulls." eulogized Hephaestus.

"She was a Cubs fan." suggested Osito Polar.

"Don't speak like that about the dead!" said Madrigal.

"Yeah, shame on you." said Etherealsage.

"AARRRRGGGGGGGGHHHHHH!!!!" said Osito Polar.

"What is it?" inquired Light Leak, concerned.

"I'm dead you jerks!" explained Oso indignantly.

"Why?" asked Noir.

"One of you miscreants killed me when no one was looking!"

"Did you see who did it?" asked Works.

"Can you give us a clue?" asked mccrissanth.

"Of course!" Osito Polar wheeled around to look at the group, pointed his finger and said "It should be perfectly obvious at this point! There's a conspiracy going on here and my murderer--"

"Was it the same people who killed Kennedy!?!" asked Hephaestus.

"How would I know? I'm just saying they killed me! Don't get me off topic, I -- "

Osito fell down, now quiet as the grave.

Osito Polar has been killed. He was Vanilla Townie.

Noir
01-06-2014, 05:05 AM
So if you were the vigilante, and you received a pm from an alleged detective telling you that he knows you're the vigilante, and that he has other information on the identities of other townies/mafia, you wouldn't give him the time of day?

Light Leak
01-06-2014, 05:08 AM
Here's my current list. I tried to put them in order as best I could, but many could be moved up or down a number


LowIQLogan - Hardly posted, which always makes me suspicious.
mccrissanth - suspicious because she only posted once. she said she was going to be away, but I saw her post in other threads. maybe she just hadn't left yet, but then why didn't she participate more?
Etherealsage - I find it suspicious that he left mccrissanth and Noir out of his recent analysis (forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?293-Cute-cuddly-anime-girls-Mafia-yay&p=5791&viewfull=1#post5791) of everyone
Randall - Hardly posted at first. This behavior always seems suspicious to me, but he's done this before. He's posting more now.
Dirac - I'm a little suspicious because he was reluctant to state whether or not he was a townie. He had to be called out on this before he claimed to be a townie.
Noir - I don't have a good read on him.
P-O - His posts haven't stood out to me. I don't know if this is good or bad. I'm going to pay more attention to get a better read on him.
JollyBard - There's no lack of posting from him, but I still can't get a good read on him.
chobani - I have my eye on her because of the "of course I'm mafia" statement, but I'm thinking she's just a clueless townie.
Works - Good insight on his latest post. I find him difficult to read in general, but I'm leaning towards townie on him.
Hephaestus - His behavior is consistent with when he's been a townie before. I think it's worth noting that he had two recently killed townies in his previous top 3 list. (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?293-Cute-cuddly-anime-girls-Mafia-yay&p=5734&viewfull=1#post5734) That can happen easily this early on. I'm still leaning towards townie on him for now. Just something to keep in mind.
Madrigal - hasn't done anything that I consider suspicious
Light Leak - I'm a townie.
Polemarch - confirmed townie (killed by ?)
Osito Polar - confirmed townie (killed by mafia)
md5fungi - confirmed townie (lynched by townies)

P-O
01-06-2014, 05:12 AM
So if you were the vigilante, and you received a pm from an alleged detective telling you that he knows you're the vigilante, and that he has other information on the identities of other townies/mafia, you wouldn't give him the time of day?

I'd shoot him the next night

Hephaestus
01-06-2014, 05:17 AM
So if you were the vigilante, and you received a pm from an alleged detective telling you that he knows you're the vigilante, and that he has other information on the identities of other townies/mafia, you wouldn't give him the time of day?
Detectives determine Townie/Mafia, not special role.

Noir
01-06-2014, 05:19 AM
:lol:

Noir
01-06-2014, 05:24 AM
Detectives determine Townie/Mafia, not special role.

Oh for real? Well there goes that idea then. I'm just thinking out loud here, we need a new strategy. We already killed the quiet one, and the existence of a vigilante could really fuck with our timetable. Should we leave the Vigilante a kill-list each night?

Madrigal
01-06-2014, 05:24 AM
The vigilante basically killed Polemarch on a gut feeling, because Polemarch never actually stopped making sense. I suspected him too but couldn't pin anything on him. We have to target inconsistencies, not act on hunches, even if they're powerful.

The mafia killed Oso. How do we decipher their strategy? Oso was a vocal player. I don't understand the move. If the suspicion has fallen on the silent ones, wouldn't a silent mafia target an innocent silent player to make us turn to the vocal ones? They targetted a vocal one. What do they want us to do with that?

Maybe it has to do with Oso's suspect list. A weak mafia kills someone with a good list, because they fear they can't manage him. A strong mafia kills someone with a bad list, to make us suspect his suspects. Are we dealing with a weak or strong mafia?

The fact two vocal members are down could mean we're dealing with a weak mafia. I don't think they expected a vigilante to kill Polemarch in the same day, which rapidly reduces the chances of this mafia being strong. Someone correct me if this is too simplistic.

P-O
01-06-2014, 05:26 AM
A word to the vigilante: I understand it's part of the job description to do crazy stupid shit, but consider our strategy: Right now the townies are struggling to rid themselves of the quiet/non-participant members. When you kill the more vocal members, you actively work against us. We can't begin to search for the mafiosi until we've culled the quiet players. Don't kill the ones who are talking. Kill the one's who aren't and accelerate our progress, rather than slowing us down.

Works
01-06-2014, 05:32 AM
The vigilante basically killed Polemarch on a gut feeling, because Polemarch never actually stopped making sense. I suspected him too but couldn't pin anything on him. We have to target inconsistencies, not act on hunches, even if they're powerful.

The mafia killed Oso. How do we decipher their strategy? Oso was a vocal player. I don't understand the move. If the suspicion has fallen on the silent ones, wouldn't a silent mafia target an innocent silent player to make us turn to the vocal ones? They targetted a vocal one. What do they want us to do with that?

Maybe it has to do with Oso's suspect list. A weak mafia kills someone with a good list, because they fear they can't manage him. A strong mafia kills someone with a bad list, to make us suspect his suspects. Are we dealing with a weak or strong mafia?

The fact two vocal members are down could mean we're dealing with a weak mafia. I don't think they expected a vigilante to kill Polemarch in the same day, which rapidly reduces the chances of this mafia being strong. Someone correct me if this is too simplistic.

Or the Mafia are trying to kill the smart players first. Assuming both are townies, would we want to have Oso or Chobani on our team? (I'm assuming Chobani is a townie btw or the most brilliant Mafia player out there.) Even if Oso's intitial analysis is off base, given some time, his long term judgement would most likely prove better than others.

Madrigal
01-06-2014, 05:34 AM
Or the Mafia are trying to kill the smart players first. Assuming both are townies, would we want to have Oso or Chobani on our team? (I'm assuming Chobani is a townie btw or the most brilliant Mafia player out there.) Even if Oso's intitial analysis is off base, given some time, his long term judgement would most likely prove better than others.

Oso's last suspect list made perfect sense. I'm on my phone so I have trouble pasting, but someone might wanna repost it here.

P-O
01-06-2014, 05:34 AM
The mafia killed Oso. How do we decipher their strategy? Oso was a vocal player. I don't understand the move. If the suspicion has fallen on the silent ones, wouldn't a silent mafia target an innocent silent player to make us turn to the vocal ones? They targetted a vocal one. What do they want us to do with that?
.

Oso was useful to us because his aggressive style sparked conversation and interaction. Interaction is what we need most. They're depriving us of information.

Etherealsage
01-06-2014, 05:43 AM
Oso and polemarch dead in one round? Wow. Especially polemarch. He hadn't done anything particularly suspicious.

Madrigal
01-06-2014, 05:47 AM
Okay, this is Oso's last list:


I'm putting in a vote for LowIQLogan. I may change this later, but I think he's either an absentee Townie player or a Mafia player trying to fly under the radar.

Etherealsage similarly seems to be keeping a low profile. I am highly suspicious of that.

Similarly, Noir.

I think these would be three good choices at this point while we still have little information to go on.


I suspect all three. I suspect Noir a little less now because if he were mafia I dunno if he'd be bold enough to tell the special roles to out themselves. That sounds immediately suspicious, and townies have a bigger mouth for thinking aloud than mafia do.

I don't want to do the obvious and just vote for the dead man's suspects right away though. It could be a trap. We need to figure out what the mafia's probable strategy is.

Etherealsage
01-06-2014, 05:50 AM
As much as I don't want to be a naysayer when my rep is on the line, how? 1 does not equal a trend, exactly. If I were to take a guess, it would be P-O's guess also, but it's hardly conclusive.

Works
01-06-2014, 05:54 AM
Traditionally the vigilante only has a limited number of shots. Sometimes only one though. Ideally the vigilante and detective hookup and kill the Mafia. There are a lot of risks to that and a big chance that you'll run afoul a Mafia member who gets you killed. Of course, there's some mutually assured destruction paranoia that might keep the Mafia in check. I know it's not kosher, but a whisper from beyond the grave from the dead detective or vigilante could net us one Mafia member if one them tries to deceive our special townies.

The best use of the vigilante would be as a second lynching if and when we're feeling confident about who to kill. Also, saying you're a townie is smart, but stating you're a vanilla townie is giving the mafia a better idea of who our specials are. I know, I know, there are mind games to play, but the Mafia already have a lopsided amount of information on us. Do we really want to give them more? We're already down three vanilla townies and if we assume three to four Mafia members, it won't be hard for them to deduce who our special roles are.

Works
01-06-2014, 05:55 AM
Okay, this is Oso's last list:



I suspect all three. I suspect Noir a little less now because if he were mafia I dunno if he'd be bold enough to tell the special roles to out themselves. That sounds immediately suspicious, and townies have a bigger mouth for thinking aloud than mafia do.

I don't want to do the obvious and just vote for the dead man's suspects right away though. It could be a trap. We need to figure out what the mafia's probable strategy is.

Etherealsage is tops on my list. He's not really punching back. Instead he's just ducking and taking the blows. As of right now, I'm voting for him.

P-O
01-06-2014, 05:56 AM
LowIQlogan
It's simplistic, but we have no choice.

There's no way to analyze people who don't say anything. And in any case it's like he said: People who don't play are boring.

Etherealsage
01-06-2014, 05:57 AM
Traditionally the vigilante only has a limited number of shots. Sometimes only one though. Ideally the vigilante and detective hookup and kill the Mafia. There are a lot of risks to that and a big chance that you'll run afoul a Mafia member who gets you killed. Of course, there's some mutually assured destruction paranoia that might keep the Mafia in check. I know it's not kosher, but a whisper from beyond the grave from the dead detective or vigilante could net us one Mafia member if one them tries to deceive our special townies.

The best use of the vigilante would be as a second lynching if and when we're feeling confident about who to kill. Also, saying you're a townie is smart, but stating you're a vanilla townie is giving the mafia a better idea of who our specials are. I know, I know, there are mind games to play, but the Mafia already have a lopsided amount of information on us. Do we really want to give them more? We're already down three vanilla townies and if we assume three to four Mafia members, it won't be hard for them to deduce who our special roles are.
In our past games, the vigilante had 3 shots. Since it's not Oso running it, precedent might not mean anything, but it's all we got. So we get a crack at 2 more mafioso, I hope.

Etherealsage
01-06-2014, 06:00 AM
Etherealsage is tops on my list. He's not really punching back. Instead he's just ducking and taking the blows. As of right now, I'm voting for him.
Because there's no point. Calling you suspicious only because you keep going after me is just encouraging splitting the townies up with no real proof on either side.

P-O
01-06-2014, 06:01 AM
Etherealsage
Who is your top suspect right now?

Madrigal
01-06-2014, 06:03 AM
As much as I don't want to be a naysayer when my rep is on the line, how? 1 does not equal a trend, exactly. If I were to take a guess, it would be P-O's guess also, but it's hardly conclusive.

No, I'm not assuming this will extend to the next kill. I just want to know if the person they killed says anything about what kind of players they are.

I wouldn't kill a good player unless I were quite certain they would be fatal to the mafia (by excellent reasoning or by uniting the townies). I would kill someone who gives little information. But most mafia are more chickenshit than that, so they kill the good players.

Maybe Oso's list was good, so they killed him. Maybe Oso was deemed to be a good player only in general, so they killed him. Maybe Oso was generally beyond suspicion, so they killed him because we weren't going to do it ourselves. On the other hand, maybe Oso is wrong about his whole list, so they killed him to portray him as a threat. It would be useful to come up with the most likely scenario.

Etherealsage
01-06-2014, 06:11 AM
My number 1 top suspect? I would have to say works on the basis that he's been hounding me the whole time without much cause. If I stay silent, he was on me. If I contributed, he was on me.

Outside of him, I would venture a guess at one of the quieter ones, like Randall. But I'm not sure if he's really a mafia or if it's 'cause he's deliberately trying to stay out of sight for another reason.

Etherealsage
01-06-2014, 06:13 AM
It used to be Noir, P-O, and Randall all, but P-O is saying stuff I should have thought of (but didn't), and in Noir's case, I don't think a mafioso would ever be careless enough to ask the people with special roles to out themselves. I guess it could be a gambit, but it would be a stupidly large risk.

JollyBard
01-06-2014, 06:18 AM
I'm a gullible idiot.

Anyway, one thing I've been thinking about is that we've all been agreeing about killing the inactive ones. Well, then, wouldn't a smart mafia post more, or sufficiently, in order not to be suspicious? At the same time, if they start posting right then, it it might seem suspicious... I think our best bet is someone who posts just enough, but doesn't really offer much, or just agrees with the general opinion.

Madrigal
01-06-2014, 06:27 AM
Lemme back off Randall for a sec.

I suspect Etherealsage for a preposterous analysis of Oso that nobody else was making, calling Oso "measured and anti-paranoia" when that wasn't even his profile. Next Act, Oso is killed, which means that if Etherealsage is mafia, he just attempted to cover his back while suspicions were beginning to build up against him.

The shallowness of his analyses might be due to his having spent little time here, but it doesn't help. His refusal to name three suspects is something else I don't agree with. His last sentence on Randall doesn't sound like honest townie speculation, and I don't think I need to explain why.

JollyBard
01-06-2014, 06:33 AM
If we're really dealing with a weak mafia, they would kill the most vocal players. That was Madrigal, Osito, Polemarch, Hephaestus, and myself, although I was just spouting out "fluff" as was said. They killed Polemarch and Osito... what was special in these guys' suspect lists? If I were mafia, I'd target to very differing lists, just to mess around with people. So:

Hephaestus: Oso, Randall, Polemarch
Madrigal: Etherealsage, Logan, Randall

Osito: Etherealsage, Noir, Logan
Polemarch: Etherealsage, Logan, Randall

Osito and Polemarch both targeted Etherealsage and Logan.
Hephaestus and Madrigal both targeted Randall.

If we're dealing with a "strong mafia", they would try to put us off, which means that Etherealsage and Logan are more likely to be innocent. If it's a "weak mafia", Randall is innocent. If it's a super strong mafia, one of them was right and the other wrong. I don't think we have any way to know which one.

JollyBard
01-06-2014, 06:34 AM
Goddammit, I'm such a n00b, they weren't both killed by the mafia. Ugh. Forget it.

Lilith
01-06-2014, 06:48 AM
What the hell happened here?


Here's my current list. I tried to put them in order as best I could, but many could be moved up or down a number


LowIQLogan - Hardly posted, which always makes me suspicious.
mccrissanth - suspicious because she only posted once. she said she was going to be away, but I saw her post in other threads. maybe she just hadn't left yet, but then why didn't she participate more?
Etherealsage - I find it suspicious that he left mccrissanth and Noir out of his recent analysis (forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?293-Cute-cuddly-anime-girls-Mafia-yay&p=5791&viewfull=1#post5791) of everyone
Randall - Hardly posted at first. This behavior always seems suspicious to me, but he's done this before. He's posting more now.
Dirac - I'm a little suspicious because he was reluctant to state whether or not he was a townie. He had to be called out on this before he claimed to be a townie.
Noir - I don't have a good read on him.
P-O - His posts haven't stood out to me. I don't know if this is good or bad. I'm going to pay more attention to get a better read on him.
JollyBard - There's no lack of posting from him, but I still can't get a good read on him.
chobani - I have my eye on her because of the "of course I'm mafia" statement, but I'm thinking she's just a clueless townie.
Works - Good insight on his latest post. I find him difficult to read in general, but I'm leaning towards townie on him.
Hephaestus - His behavior is consistent with when he's been a townie before. I think it's worth noting that he had two recently killed townies in his previous top 3 list. (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?293-Cute-cuddly-anime-girls-Mafia-yay&p=5734&viewfull=1#post5734) That can happen easily this early on. I'm still leaning towards townie on him for now. Just something to keep in mind.
Madrigal - hasn't done anything that I consider suspicious
Light Leak - I'm a townie.
Polemarch - confirmed townie (killed by ?)
Osito Polar - confirmed townie (killed by mafia)
md5fungi - confirmed townie (lynched by townies)

Okay, in my defense, I did a couple of posts within an hour or two before I traveled. You can check my post history if you like. I'd give you a benefit of a doubt and just say you kind of based that with the timezone you are in. I'm on GMT+8, fwiw.

Also, to correct Polemarch, I did not single out Dirac. I voted him because there were two who voted him on that day and I need to cast my vote before I travel as I won't make it to the end of Day 1. These two changed their votes. The first kill will usually be a townie. There's no sense in arguing that given the townie population. Attention to details, please. This time the vigilante missed.

A couple more posts and two threads to read. I'll get back with some more comments.

Lilith
01-06-2014, 06:55 AM
mccrissanth -- The low participation, including not voting, has her as the new top of my list.
[/LIST]

I did, Hephy. :|

Madrigal
01-06-2014, 06:58 AM
Just a thought - if Etherealsage were mafia, maybe he wouldn't be this sloppy. However, if he is a mafia with passive team mates that aren't helping, maybe he's outside his comfort zone. I don't think he was a very talkative mafia in the past.

Light Leak has mainly posted to compile and summarize information from the discussion, and other bureacratic concerns. Correct me if I'm wrong. That could mean she's playing it a little too safe while keeping up a presence. I would just like to get more content from her.

JollyBard
01-06-2014, 06:58 AM
The only person Osito suspected that others didn't was Noir. Althought it might not mean anything, I'm going to vote Noir.

Madrigal
01-06-2014, 07:01 AM
Noir told us the special roles should out themselves to other players. He seems to be thinking aloud in typical townie fashion.

P-O
01-06-2014, 07:01 AM
My thoughts:

Madrigal- towny
Hephaestus - I have an irrational hunch against you that I can't shake.
mccrissanth- said she was going to be away for a day or so, but no real opinion from what she's said.
Randall - very quiet, but from what he's said, he feels like a towny.
Dirac- suspicious to me. His reactions early on rubbed me the wrong way, now he's been away for a bit so ehh.
Light Leak- slightly leaning towards towny to me.
JollyBard- dangerous towny.
chobani- dangerous towny.
Noir- suspicious but it may be that he just has a weird interacting style.
LowIQLogan - absent.
Works- seems like a towny. He's pursuing ES, but when hunches are really all you have to go on, that's understandable.
P-O- I think he's pretty great.
Etherealsage- suspcious on a hunch.

P-O
01-06-2014, 07:03 AM
Obviously i'm probably wrong about people that i've put in both categories, but maybe it's useful anyway.

JollyBard
01-06-2014, 07:08 AM
Noir told us the special roles should out themselves to other players. He seems to be thinking aloud in typical townie fashion.

The special roles outing themselves could be advantageous to the mafia than to the townies, though. We have nothing to gain since we offer our analysis to them anyway, so they can decide for themselves. On the other hand, the mafia knowing about who is special might just target them first. I bet they have their panties in a bunch about the vigilante.

Madrigal
01-06-2014, 07:10 AM
The special roles outing themselves could be advantageous to the mafia than to the townies, though. We have nothing to gain since we offer our analysis to them anyway, so they can decide for themselves. On the other hand, the mafia knowing about who is special might just target them first. I bet they have their panties in a bunch about the vigilante.

:facepalm:

Works
01-06-2014, 07:11 AM
Goddammit, I'm such a n00b, they weren't both killed by the mafia. Ugh. Forget it.

Or maybe you're just a noobsavant mafioso.



Just a thought - if Etherealsage were mafia, maybe he wouldn't be this sloppy. However, if he is a mafia with passive team mates that aren't helping, maybe he's outside his comfort zone. I don't think he was a very talkative mafia in the past.


He was much better at pretending to be a townie when he was on team Mafia. Maybe he's just a vanilla townie who couldn't care less about the game now that he can't actually control things. Still, why participate at all then? He could just be like any of the other players who aren't speaking, which by the way, is going to lose us the game if they don't speak up.

Madrigal
01-06-2014, 07:15 AM
Or maybe you're just a noobsavant mafioso.

Ha. I think the golden rule about this game is not giving people too much credit, including oneself.

JollyBard
01-06-2014, 07:19 AM
Or maybe you're just a noobsavant mafioso.

I'm flattered.


:facepalm:

Well, what? How would knowing people's specials benefit us? Wouldn't the mafia want to know about them more than we do?

Hephaestus
01-06-2014, 07:23 AM
I did, Hephy. :|
You're right. I should have looked closer--if I'd looked at one of the tallies I would have spotted it. Instead I did the 'replies' thing and clicked on the '1' next to your name--which it turns out didn't produce the full text of your post. Should have been obvious but I guess I've been up too long--swollen throat made it hard to sleep and I've been running on caffeine all day.

With this new information I need to re-rank. I'm switching my vote to LowIQLogan, as he is next on my short list--but I'll revisit the issue tomorrow. Hopefully I'll be better rested and have more information.

Works
01-06-2014, 07:25 AM
I'm flattered.


I was being flippant. I really just think you're a terrible townie.

JollyBard
01-06-2014, 07:31 AM
I was being flippant. I really just think you're a terrible townie.

Yeah, I know. And you're right.

JollyBard

P-O
01-06-2014, 07:59 AM
JollyBard

Relax. Your input is still valuable.

Lilith
01-06-2014, 08:37 AM
Madrigal - A little bit suspicious. Her uber active participation seems like a ploy to me. I cannot find a justification of that though.
Hephaestus - Undecided. He's a little less assertive than he was previously. Coming up with a list is something....
Randall - He's out of my list because he's one of those who voted someone else other than md5fungi. Mafia members hide themselves in conformity. It's a safe move to.
Dirac - Not sure if I read any of his posts after the first kill.
Light Leak - Undecided. I think she's being very safe.
JollyBard - I'm leaning towards harmless. Needs to calm down though.
chobani - I find her post a little bit bizarre, esp #160 of the previous thread. I'm not sure if the tie is a poor attempt at blending in or just plain stupidity. Said md5fungi is townie but voted him anyway.
Noir - Hot and cold.
LowIQLogan - A bit quiet.
Works - Quite suspicious. His baiting other players might seem to encourage paranoia among townies.
P-O - - Can't find anything suspicious at this point.
Etherealsage - Uncertain.


At the moment, my top 3 on my list are: chobani, Works, Madrigal.

Light Leak
01-06-2014, 12:13 PM
Okay, in my defense, I did a couple of posts within an hour or two before I traveled. You can check my post history if you like. I'd give you a benefit of a doubt and just say you kind of based that with the timezone you are in. I'm on GMT+8, fwiw.

Ok, fair enough. You seem less suspicious now. I may need to revise my list.

Light Leak
01-06-2014, 01:07 PM
Maybe it has to do with Oso's suspect list. A weak mafia kills someone with a good list, because they fear they can't manage him. A strong mafia kills someone with a bad list, to make us suspect his suspects. Are we dealing with a weak or strong mafia?

The fact two vocal members are down could mean we're dealing with a weak mafia. I don't think they expected a vigilante to kill Polemarch in the same day, which rapidly reduces the chances of this mafia being strong. Someone correct me if this is too simplistic.

I can't tell if it's a weak or strong mafia. If we are dealing with a weak mafia, I think it's worth considering that Oso had also placed voted for you, and then Dirac before switching to md5fungi. I don't see you as weak mafia... but possibly Dirac. Although, I could just be trying to make something from nothing. Dirac gives me a funny vibe and he's been pretty quiet since the killings.


Light Leak has mainly posted to compile and summarize information from the discussion, and other bureacratic concerns. Correct me if I'm wrong. That could mean she's playing it a little too safe while keeping up a presence. I would just like to get more content from her.

A couple people have mentioned that they think I'm playing it safe. I don't see it that way myself but it doesn't matter what I think of myself so I'll try to post more. I can't promise much during the day because I work. I may be able to check in if things aren't busy at work. I'll likely post more during evenings or mornings before work.

Kyuri (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/member.php?68-Kyuri), when does this round end? Will all day periods last 48 hrs, or was that just for day 1?

Blorg
01-06-2014, 01:40 PM
Here are the problems with HappyNoodleBoy:
He posted at the last minute before the first vote, when people were starting to suspect him
He didn't offer any new analysis
He logged in yesterday and viewed the thread, but he didn't post
He only voted for Md5 after it was clear that Md5 was the consensus vote
Osito Polar voted for him

LowIQLogan

Also, why are people being so easy on JollyBard? It seems like his behavior became substantially more nooblike after people labeled him a flailing noob. Compare his posts at the beginning of the thread to the end of the thread. He occasionally made some sense early on, but his last few posts seem intentionally bizarre-- they're perfectly illogical.

It seems like people decided the vigilante is on our side-- why? Would it be possible for there to be more than one vigilante, one per side? (it would seem unfair for the mafia to have an extra murder every turn, if there's only one vigilante and he's on their side.)

I liked the idea about a detective network. It seems like the conclusion was that this wouldn't work, but let's keep thinking about it (tired right now but I'll think about it).

In self defense:
The mafia probably views me as a Townie that they can convince other Townies to lynch. It's possible that some of the criticisms of me are from mafia members-- in fact, it's likely, since the vast majority of players have vocally criticized and/or suspected me, and no one has defended me.

Kyuri
01-06-2014, 02:10 PM
Kyuri (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/member.php?68-Kyuri), when does this round end? Will all day periods last 48 hrs, or was that just for day 1?

Yes, Day phase is always 48 hours from the time of the announcement post. Night phase lasts 12 hours or until I have all the Night actions. Day phase->Night phase = 1 Day.

Blorg
01-06-2014, 03:44 PM
Said md5fungi is townie but voted him anyway.

I never said he was a townie!

Blorg
01-06-2014, 03:48 PM
I mean I did, but only after I knew that he was one because he was killed and kyuri announced it

Light Leak
01-06-2014, 03:54 PM
chobani - I find her post a little bit bizarre, esp #160 of the previous thread. I'm not sure if the tie is a poor attempt at blending in or just plain stupidity. Said md5fungi is townie but voted him anyway.
#160 of the previous thread is chobani's list that she posted after md5fungi was lynched and it was announced that he was a townie. I don't see what's odd about that.

Ugh... I just previewed my post and it looks like chobani just pointed out the same thing, so not it's just going to look like I'm restating things that have already been stated again.



The mafia probably views me as a Townie that they can convince other Townies to lynch. It's possible that some of the criticisms of me are from mafia members-- in fact, it's likely, since the vast majority of players have vocally criticized and/or suspected me, and no one has defended me.

That's what tends to happen. Everyone gets suspected and/or criticized at some point.

Madrigal
01-06-2014, 04:08 PM
I'm voting Etherealsage on the reasoning I already mentioned, unless anyone has a better reason to vote for Logan. Basically gonna choose between these two unless some crazy shit happens.

Blorg
01-06-2014, 04:28 PM
I'm voting Etherealsage on the reasoning I already mentioned, unless anyone has a better reason to vote for Logan.

He posted at the last minute before the first vote, when people were starting to suspect him
He didn't offer any new analysis
He logged in yesterday and viewed the thread, but he didn't post
He only voted for Md5 after it was clear that Md5 was the consensus vote
Osito Polar voted for him before he was killed

Why is Etherealsage more suspicious? Honestly I don't see any tangible, concrete evidence against him-- it's all rhetorical issues.

Is this the post you were referring to?



I suspect Etherealsage for a preposterous analysis of Oso that nobody else was making, calling Oso "measured and anti-paranoia" when that wasn't even his profile. Next Act, Oso is killed, which means that if Etherealsage is mafia, he just attempted to cover his back while suspicions were beginning to build up against him.

The shallowness of his analyses might be due to his having spent little time here, but it doesn't help. His refusal to name three suspects is something else I don't agree with. His last sentence on Randall doesn't sound like honest townie speculation, and I don't think I need to explain why.

It would be stupid of the mafia to kill a townie right after a mafia player criticized that townie. Wouldn't they just kill the dangerous townie without broadcasting their decision to all the townies immediately beforehand?

"Shallowness" and a dishonest air are not solid reasons for voting against Etherealsage, imo. Shouldn't we be cautious at this stage? Voting for Etherealsage just seems like a gamble.

JollyBard
01-06-2014, 04:31 PM
[COLOR=#333333]Also, why are people being so easy on JollyBard? It seems like his behavior became substantially more nooblike after people labeled him a flailing noob. Compare his posts at the beginning of the thread to the end of the thread. He occasionally made some sense early on, but his last few posts seem intentionally bizarre-- they're perfectly illogical

Duel of the flailing noobs. In my defense I might have been a bit drunk yesterday. And tired.

I'm going back to voting Noir since it's the only lead I have.

Noir
01-06-2014, 07:30 PM
Duel of the flailing noobs. In my defense I might have been a bit drunk yesterday. And tired.

I'm going back to voting Noir since it's the only lead I have.

Did you even look to see why Osito suspected me?


I'm putting in a vote for LowIQLogan. I may change this later, but I think he's either an absentee Townie player or a Mafia player trying to fly under the radar.

Etherealsage similarly seems to be keeping a low profile. I am highly suspicious of that.

Similarly, Noir.

I think these would be three good choices at this point while we still have little information to go on.

Light Leak, I'll include you in the next story for sure.

Your reasoning seems to be something along the lines of "Osito was killed, therefore his list must be magic." Osito was maintaining the same suspicion of low-profile members that he always had, and my inclusion in that regard was largely incidental. I agree that low-profile posters are suspicious, but I hardly think I qualify. The posters I find most suspicious are the neutral ones, those who don't seem to be offering more than a perfunctory analysis. Here are my impressions so far:

1. LowIQLogan - Only really has one post to his name, which is suspicious and unhelpful, but not an indictment in itself.
2. mccrissanth - She's been travelling/away, not enough information
3. Etherealsage - I actually think Sage is a Townie, though it's more of a hunch at this point.
4. Hephaestus - Solid advice, I'm suspicious of how unsuspicious he is.
5. Dirac - He's been silent since yesterday's vote, which I find odd, considering he was a suspect.
6. Noir - I'm a Townie, though I do have a tendency to word vomit all over the place.
7. P-O - Seems to be giving solid advice and analyses so far. Not suspicious.
8. JollyBard - A bit sporadic but otherwise okay with me.
9. chobani - Irked me early on for starting fires, but seems to have calmed down a bit. Probable Townie.
10. Madrigal - I can't bring myself to believe she's mafia at this point.
11. Works - Pretty damn suspicious imo, he's playing very close to the chest. 1st on my list
12. Randall - Too quiet for my liking. He comes 2nd on my list
13. Light Leak - Very neutral, leaves lists but doesn't get his/her hands dirty. 3rd on my list.
14. Polemarch - confirmed townie (killed by vigilante)
15. Osito Polar - confirmed townie (killed by mafia)
16. md5fungi - confirmed townie (lynched by townies)

P-O
01-06-2014, 07:40 PM
..
So who would you vote for instead? Name 3 candidates please.

Blorg
01-06-2014, 07:49 PM
So who would you vote for instead? Name 3 candidates please.

1. LowIQLogan, for the reasons I described in my previous post.
2. Dirac, for the reasons I described in the other thread.
3. Randall, I guess. He's quiet.
I misunderstood part of the logic for voting against EtherealSage (I thought he was critical of Oso) so now I see what Madrigal means. I guess he's number 4 on my list.

Light Leak
01-06-2014, 08:01 PM
I'm making a tally again for this round because I get tired of looking back through all the posts. Again, I think this is accurate, but double check if you want.

LowIQLogan
P-O
Hephaestus
chobani

Etherealsage
Works
Madrigal

Noir
JollyBard

Light Leak
01-06-2014, 08:11 PM
It seems like people decided the vigilante is on our side-- why? Would it be possible for there to be more than one vigilante, one per side? (it would seem unfair for the mafia to have an extra murder every turn, if there's only one vigilante and he's on their side.

I think a vigilante is always on the townies side, plus there's been a vigilante in past games so it's likely that the character is used again in this game. It doesn't hurt to be open to the possibility that it could be some sort of killer that's not on the townies side.

Light Leak
01-06-2014, 08:27 PM
I'm debating who to vote for. LowIQLogan and Etherealsage are both in my top 3. I'm finding it a little odd that there's not really any resistance to the votes for LowIQLogan. We could lynch him this round, but it seems too easy. If he were mafia there should be some sort of resistance, right? Of course he hasn't really contributed anything, so maybe we should just go ahead and lynch him. It may be more informative to go for Etherealsage.

Dirac is now also in my top three instead of mccrissanth.

Noir
01-06-2014, 08:28 PM
Actually, after re-reading some of Light Leaks posts, he/she (I can never remember) seems to be pretty solid as well.

Revised short list:
1. Works
2. Randall
3. LowIQLogan

Light Leak
01-06-2014, 08:31 PM
^
FYI - I'm female.

Dirac
01-06-2014, 08:48 PM
Holy crap what happened here? I'm just gonna think and type at the same time so apologies in advance.

They killed Oso - an active player causing a lot of analysis. Seems unlikely it was to do with his magic list just rather the information he generated. In fact, mafia are probably going to avoid killing people with magic lists if they can, because of what we saw happen when they killed Osito. So where might this indicate there are mafia? Honestly I'm not sure, because it seems like wherever the mafia are they are going to want to starve us of information. The only way I could think that mafia would want to keep a very active player alive is either if:

1. That player was mafia - obviously not an interesting case, although may come in to play later if there are limelight-mafia around.
2. That player was somehow leading us down the wrong path.

A question arises: why Oso and not another high quantity poster? I will take these as the high-quantity posters for consideration (based pretty much purely on day 1 post-count):

- Madrigal
- Osito
- JollyBard
- Dirac (that's me!)
- chobani

First thing's first - all is not what it seems. Take chobani for instance - a lot of her posts were made either in defense of herself or pointing fingers. The mafia would likely leave her alive because the information she was generating was causing a lot of paranoia among the townies (myself included). So I am unsurprised that she is still alive.

- Madrigal
- Osito
- JollyBard
- Dirac
- chobani

Next up: me. So, this game caught me by surprise, I haven't ever played it before and truth be told I had to google it on the first day. Oh my is it more intense than I had anticipated. Anyway, I made a lot of posts to start with, but it was just all a load of nothing really, I didn't realise how much there was to think about in this game and soon the fluffer-finger was getting pointed my way - understandable. I didn't really contribute anything of worth to the discussion and people are very suspicious of me so it makes sense for the mafia to leave me there. I add nothing, but take the heat off them. So, I'm not surprised to be alive.


- Madrigal
- Osito
- JollyBard
- Dirac
- chobani

JollyBard started the game in a pretty similar fashion to me, just with a bit more content in his posts. He is talking a lot, some of it relatively fluffy, so maybe post count is a little misleading. I don't believe he's mafia, as has been discussed, thinking out loud is a townie trait. Too nooby to be mafia, and doesn't come in for much suspicion, so why is he not dead? I suppose because Oso was seen as a more dangerous player. Not sure about this one, I think JB should count himself lucky he wasn't killed. Anyway, I'll cross him off.

- Madrigal
- Osito
- JollyBard
- Dirac
- chobani

So now the mafia can choose between either Madrigal or Osito. Now this one I am not sure about at all. Why Osito instead of Maddy? Was Osito's contribution deemed more dangerous? It would need to be a significant difference considering the post-count difference. Maddy had 28 posts to Osito's 19. Another difference is the Amusement Park thread, which I'll be honest I haven't read so can't really comment. Seems like there are three(ish) possibilities:

- Mafia deemed Osito more dangerous
- Mafia think Madrigal is more suspected by the rest of the townies
- Maddy is actually mafia

Or of course a combination. I don't know why but I just don't buy option 1, if I was Mafia I'd be more scared of Madrigal just from the sheer volume of data she is producing. So either this was a smart play of theirs to get us to suspect her or maybe she actually is mafia. Or of course, maybe I'm still too shit at this game to understand anything.

Dirac
01-06-2014, 09:07 PM
I realised I never said anything about any of my suspicions.

Despite what I said above I am not going to consider voting for Madrigal, she's too valuable at the moment. If she turns out mafia well at least she set a lot of jaws a-wagging.


1. LowIQLogan - Same impression as light leak, not helpful, but if he's mafia there isn't much of a resistance.
2. mccrissanth - No idea
3. Etherealsage - I am not sure and my impression is coloured from discussions of past mafia games that I wasn't in. Fairly suspicious.
4. Hephaestus - It's difficult because the people I'm most suspicious of are the ones playing like this. But there isn't a lot to go on
5. Dirac - townie
6. Noir - Fairly low profile, which is a little suspicious but doesn't seem as mafia-y as some others.
7. P-O - In the medium range for me, may be is just posting enough analysis to avoid the finger?
8. JollyBard - Townie, right? I'm scared of putting anyone above suspicion though.
9. chobani - I agree with Noir's assessment here, probably townie.
10. Madrigal - I feel like she probably isn't mafia, but I'm just not sure why the mafia killed Oso instead.
11. Works - Suspected for slow and steady play, maybe a bit of townie splitting too, although we need some of that so who knows.
12. Randall - Hasn't said enough, not that useful.
13. Light Leak - Light leak seems to be doing what a mafioso would do, not raising hackles. I do like how she counts votes though :P

I suppose I'd choose my top three suspects as:

Randall
Etherealsage
Works

Blorg
01-06-2014, 09:23 PM
^Why is Randall your top suspect, but LowIQLogan isn't even in the top 3? You say that Randall hasn't said enough, but LowIQLogan posted even less.

I think the reason that the mafia didn't choose Madrigal is that she made the suspicious amusement park thread. It was a good strategy for her to make that thread if she's mafia, but it was also a good strategy for her to make that thread if she's a townie. Pretty sure she's a townie.

Dirac
01-06-2014, 09:31 PM
^Why is Randall your top suspect, but LowIQLogan isn't even in the top 3? You say that Randall hasn't said enough, but LowIQLogan posted even less.
Hmm yeah good point. Can I have a joint top spot? I dunno really tbh. It's pretty hard to choose between the low postcounters.

Randall
LowIQLogan
Etherealsage
Works


I think the reason that the mafia didn't choose Madrigal is that she made the suspicious amusement park thread. It was a good strategy for her to make that thread if she's mafia, but it was also a good strategy for her to make that thread if she's a townie. Pretty sure she's a townie.

I'm not sure I follow.

JollyBard
01-06-2014, 09:41 PM
I really like the idea that the mafia didn't kill Madrigal because they thought she was already suspected by the townies... But I don't think she was. In fact, if I remember correctly, most people agreed she's probably a townie, just because she doesn't seem to be leading us on and gives a shit ton of analysis. If she really were mafia, she'd really be outdoing herself in spouting credible bullshit. It would be a bit too brilliant, and I guess I'm not willing to give her that much credit.

Sorry, Noir, I just wanted to put you in a corner and I really had nothing else to go on. You're totally right that we shouldn't base ourselves on the magic lists to determine who is mafia; those lists, I think, would only be useful in determining affiliations once we find a mafia.

I think Osito was also flip-flopping and acting a little bit more "fluffy" than Madrigal. If they had killed Maddy, there wouldn't be much doubt about their reasons since she didn't really change her suspects that often. Osito was the next choice. Madrigal always wanted to get the inactive players. Osito pointed more fingers.

As boring as it is, I think we should get the quiet ones. I'm really not sure which one of them, but I'm leaning towards Logan since he's probably the least active player. Sorry, I'm on mobile so I can't really check all my facts.

Randall
01-06-2014, 09:50 PM
Well with all the "kill the quiet ones" stuff going around, it is unsurprising that the mafia would want to kill Osito. The mafia are hoping that the townies will lynch one of the quiet townies, so there would be no point in the mafia killing a quiet one.

I'm going to read through this whole thread and compile my top three suspects.

Noir
01-06-2014, 10:06 PM
The standard characterization of a mafioso seems to be that of the low-profile, unoffensive and unassuming personality. I think that certainly has some merit, but I don't believe a "low-profile" is commensurate with a low post count. If anything, having a low post count has been the most immediately suspicious trait from the get-go, so why would the Mafia still be hiding in their ranks? I really don't think Logan is Mafia for instance. The general line of reasoning for killing him seems to be "better safe than sorry" right now, which I can respect to a degree, but I can't help but feel that the real culprits are hiding in the middle ranks.

JollyBard
01-06-2014, 10:17 PM
The standard characterization of a mafioso seems to be that of the low-profile, unoffensive and unassuming personality. I think that certainly has some merit, but I don't believe a "low-profile" is commensurate with a low post count. If anything, having a low post count has been the most immediately suspicious trait from the get-go, so why would the Mafia still be hiding in their ranks? I really don't think Logan is Mafia for instance. The general line of reasoning for killing him seems to be "better safe than sorry" right now, which I can respect to a degree, but I can't help but feel that the real culprits are hiding in the middle ranks.

I think that theory has some merit, but right now, I think we can take the chance and kill the inactive ones. There's still 13 players, and assuming there's 3-4 mafiosi in the game , and we miss, we'll lose two townies this turn (unless the vigilante strikes again or something weird happens). Which gets us to 11 players, and I think that's still a fair townie-to-mafia ratio, so we've got nothing to be afraid of. The way I see it, the inactive ones are either not really playing, so we don't really feel bad eliminating them, or mafia. So, for this turn, I say we stick to killing off the quiet ones. We'll get into deeper analysis and game theory once we've eliminated more people, because right now, there are just too many possibilities.

Randall
01-06-2014, 10:25 PM
Current top 4
Etherealsage
Dirac
LowIQLogan
Noir


For now I am voting for Etherealsage. Based on this sentence he wrote about me being quiet:

But I'm not sure if he's really a mafia or if it's 'cause he's deliberately trying to stay out of sight for another reason.

Here he is all but saying that if I am a townie, then I have a special role. If ES is a townie, why the fuck would he make that mistake? It only helps the mafia to speculate who the townie special roles are. For example, if I thought Osito was the detective or vigilante, I would keep my fucking mouth shut about it, and try to redirect any suspicion that might fall on him. If Etherealsage is as good at mafia as people say, he wouldn't have made such a noob mistake if he was a townie.

Madrigal
01-06-2014, 11:08 PM
So now the mafia can choose between either Madrigal or Osito. Now this one I am not sure about at all. Why Osito instead of Maddy? Was Osito's contribution deemed more dangerous? It would need to be a significant difference considering the post-count difference. Maddy had 28 posts to Osito's 19. Another difference is the Amusement Park thread, which I'll be honest I haven't read so can't really comment. Seems like there are three(ish) possibilities:

- Mafia deemed Osito more dangerous
- Mafia think Madrigal is more suspected by the rest of the townies
- Maddy is actually mafia

Or of course a combination. I don't know why but I just don't buy option 1, if I was Mafia I'd be more scared of Madrigal just from the sheer volume of data she is producing. So either this was a smart play of theirs to get us to suspect her or maybe she actually is mafia. Or of course, maybe I'm still too shit at this game to understand anything.

Here's what I think. The Mafia may have made a rapid decision to kill Oso on the basis of the last posts in the lynching thread. Before md5's lynching, everyone was more or less saying the same thing, there was consensus. The consensus then moved quickly onto killing Randall next. You can call that uncontroversial. The waters were only divided when Logan and Etherealsage came into the picture as suspects:

Oso points to Logan. Works accuses Etherealsage. I start bickering with Etherealsage. He moves up as a suspect. Bam, Oso's dead. What does that mean?

I don't want to get tunnel vision on two players (let alone one), but I think the mafia kill has a lot to do with the them. Did they let me live because I was guessing wrong? Or did they kill Oso because he pointed at Logan and a mafioso shat their pants about it? It's a risky move, but they may have wanted to remove Logan before it snowballed.

Logan's first post (is it still the only post?) opened with a comic, that is, with humor. I think that a townie might be a little more anxious to dispell doubts than to sit and make a comic for us before making a post. I dunno. He said he couldn't post because he was at work. Does he work on Sundays too?

Madrigal
01-06-2014, 11:48 PM
-Etherealsage
-Logan
-Randall

Randall - I agree Etherealsage would not be wise to insinuate you have another role if he were a townie. But Heph has outed the detective as a townie in two games, so I can believe anything.

If Etherealsage is mafia, saying this would only serve the purpose of seeing how you react before deciding whether to kill you. You reacted by piling further analysis onto the move, which is the opposite of what I'd do if I had a special role. Maybe this means that you don't, and you are just a vanilla townie. Or, maybe it means both you and Etherealsage are mafia and you want us to get off your case in the hopes that you have a special role.

That last scenario gives the mafia a lot of credit, and they tend to be more basic. Still something for us to think about.

Madrigal
01-07-2014, 12:06 AM
If there is a detective in this game, and there usually is, I want to make a note for you. If the Mafia has a Godfather, he's probably the one that's least putting himself out there, while his team mates maneouvre more.

Hephaestus
01-07-2014, 12:21 AM
So now the mafia can choose between either Madrigal or Osito. Now this one I am not sure about at all. Why Osito instead of Maddy? Was Osito's contribution deemed more dangerous? It would need to be a significant difference considering the post-count difference. Maddy had 28 posts to Osito's 19. Another difference is the Amusement Park thread, which I'll be honest I haven't read so can't really comment. Seems like there are three(ish) possibilities:

- Mafia deemed Osito more dangerous
- Mafia think Madrigal is more suspected by the rest of the townies
- Maddy is actually mafia

Or of course a combination. I don't know why but I just don't buy option 1, if I was Mafia I'd be more scared of Madrigal just from the sheer volume of data she is producing. So either this was a smart play of theirs to get us to suspect her or maybe she actually is mafia. Or of course, maybe I'm still too shit at this game to understand anything.

Good stuff overall. I think what you say makes a lot of sense, right up until the end where you lose sight of the common thread that kept you, chobani, and Jolly alive: who creates more paranoia in townies?

So, who creates more paranoia in townies? Oso, with his cheery vibe? Or Maddy who enforces paranoia and fear as the markers of a true townie? Granted, Oso baits people, but in baiting people, he gets them to voluntarily talk and something to talk about that might get a mafia to lose their cool in the heat of passion--he provoked people and anger makes bolder fools than fear. Maddy provides conflicting incentives: townies are frightened and paranoid, but talk boldy and speak their minds.

Let your imagination think about that combo for a moment, what comes to mind? Panicked chattering is what comes to my mind. It's possible they chose Oso over Maddy for the same reason Oso was chosen over the others: because leaving Maddy alive does more to further their agenda than killing her.

In past games, I was left alive because I was a lightning rod for accusation. By not killing me, regardless of how effective my analysis was or wasn't, they could count on people trying to lynch me day after day. This lead me to have to split my attention between not being lynched and finding better targets, but it also meant that day after day, attention was almost certain to be focused on a known townie. The irony is that I was accused of "distraction tactics", when I was actually the tactical distraction.

What I'm suggesting is that maybe something similar is true here.

Madrigal
01-07-2014, 01:01 AM
Let your imagination think about that combo for a moment, what comes to mind? Panicked chattering is what comes to my mind. It's possible they chose Oso over Maddy for the same reason Oso was chosen over the others: because leaving Maddy alive does more to further their agenda than killing her.

Why are you saying that I *want* people to be paranoid? I correctly identified paranoia as a typical townie trait. Speaking without thinking is also a townie trait, because it's something the mafia simply cannot afford to do. Observing as much does not make me some kind of dictator telling people to act like chickens with their heads cut off. If anything, I've been trying to keep a cool head when people started the blame game on the basis of apparently nothing. ("I'm calling you mafia because you called me mafia" is one component of chicken-with-their-heads-cut-off behavior).

But yes, the mafia could keep me alive because I have a vibe that makes people not trust me. Similarly to Polemarch, who was killed for it. This vibe is more of a thing at the start of the game, I hope.

Light Leak
01-07-2014, 01:56 AM
I don't want to get tunnel vision on two players (let alone one), but I think the mafia kill has a lot to do with the them. Did they let me live because I was guessing wrong? Or did they kill Oso because he pointed at Logan and a mafioso shat their pants about it? It's a risky move, but they may have wanted to remove Logan before it snowballed.


Your theory is interesting to consider, but I think it's likely that the mafia wanted get rid of someone vocal and thought that there was a better chance of us lynching you than Oso.

One thing keeps bugging me. If they killed Oso because he wanted to lynch Logan, then why isn't there any resistance to the votes for Logan now? Not that there seems to be any resistance to the votes for Etherealsage either. The whole thing seems weird and makes me think that lynching Logan will lead us nowhere, but he's also not participating so maybe we should just go ahead and lynch him.

Works
01-07-2014, 01:57 AM
Not too surprising that I'm topping a few people's lists. Participating and putting names out there paints a big ole target on your back for both fellow townies and the Mafia. I haven't updated my list for a while, so here's my current overall impressions.


1. LowIQLogan - Unclear. he's playing a dangerous game either way by not participating. He's not really moving up or down my suspect list, but it's frustrating that we'll have to deal with his absence sooner rather than later and most likely lose another body between us and Mafia.
2. mccrissanth -Leaning Mafia. We've really been too quick to give her a pass for her sparse play. She's a nice person, but I wouldn't put it past her to use that reputation to lull us into a false sense of security. Maybe the godfather.
3. Etherealsage - My top Mafia choice. The shallow analysis and the chain of events since Oso's death lead me to believe he's Mafia. He tried to be quiet, but wasn't ready for pressure. My other theory is that he's a vanilla townie who is annoyed that he has no powers and isn't in the Mafia circle where he's better able to control things, which is really going to suck for me if it's true.
4. Hephaestus - Leaning Townie. Heph is always hard for me to read. I think it's because I find the way he talks in all his Mafia games to be a bit unnatural. Analysis was really shallow so far in Day two. However, day one, he was actually providing more of useful analysis of both the game and players.
5. Dirac - Leaning Townie- Doing a lot of thinking out loud which is indicative of townie play.
6. Noir - Probable Mafia. On one hand, Oso suspected him and then got killed. But that seems entirely too obvious a ploy. I keep thinking about the scene from Princess Bride and Iocaine powder as far as how we should interpret Oso's death. Which cup is the poison in, dammit! Lastly, his reaction to the death of Polemarch was a bit hammy and not a lot of participation in the first round.
7. P-O - Probable townie. Consistently measured responses and continually presses people for suspect lists. Could just be a brilliant Mafia player though. There's something cold about some of his posts, but at the same time he was nice to Jollybard when I was being an ass to him.
8. JollyBard - Ineffective Townie. This may come back to bite me, but the flailing about doesn't seem to be an act.
9. chobani - Leaning townie. Similar reasons to Jollybard.
10. Madrigal - Leaning townie. Sorry, I can never really trust you completely. You're playing this game like a townie, but you're scary good at assuming another persona.
11. Works - Townie.
12. Randall - Leaning Townie, Besides being absent early in the game, Randall seems to be pretty on the level. He also eventually got on that damned amusement park thread.
13. Light Leak - Slight Townie lean. Mostly posts to say that she can't get a good read on people which seems like a townie thing to say.

Light Leak
01-07-2014, 02:02 AM
It seems that most people seem to have either LowIQLogan or Etherealsage on their top suspects lists. Would it make sense to do a vote where we all one of the two - whoever we would rather lynch between the two? This may give us an idea of who is more suspicious overall.

Works
01-07-2014, 02:05 AM
It seems that most people seem to have either LowIQLogan or Etherealsage on their top suspects lists. Would it make sense to do a vote where we all one of the two - whoever we would rather lynch between the two? This may give us an idea of who is more suspicious overall.

I think it's better to vote your top suspect right now and condense to a smaller list as time goes on if you are convinced otherwise or see that your candidate has no chance. Votes and vote changes give us more of an idea of how people are playing. Instant run off voting would be cool, but I don't think Kyuri wants to set that up.

Hephaestus
01-07-2014, 02:10 AM
I agree that paranoia is part of being a good townie--the only person I know I can trust is myself. I even suspect JollyBard a little--seems the least likely, but... Kuranes. He could be getting egged on by his compatriot(s) to keep up appearances.

But, you were the only one of the high profile posters advocating the appearance of paranoia as a defining characteristic. This leads to people wondering if they are appearing paranoid enough--especially the new guys who have yet to understand the fear--lest they be falsely accused, which will lead to a game like Randall's: turtling instead of probing. I think it also leads to reciprocal mafia calling--which I agree, is dumb and futile in most cases. Hell, even in the case I'm thinking of, where there is a clear cabal pointing at you, it's probably not mafia or probably not all mafia. Forming an open cabal against someone just doesn't seem to be a mafia move.

The problem is that the paranoia occurs naturally, from understanding the game, or it's the wrong kind of paranoia. Sort of. It becomes more likely to be paranoid about being wrongly accused than about trusting poorly. Being wrongly accused is part of the game, but if you make your game just about defending yourself, you don't help the town.

Earlier there was talk about strong mafia/weak mafia. You opined that we should work out which we were dealing with so as to know how to proceed with Oso's death. I think that's a backwards way of looking at it. We should try and figure out how to determine that information from the results of our next action. We need a test, and our primary test is lynching and voting record.

The next bit is just some thoughts, it's a little meandering, I haven't worked out a way to bind it together into a cohesive picture:

What can we learn from lynching LowIQLogan?

If he's a townie, we learn he's an ineffective player. So far that wouldn't be new information because he's only posted once and it wasn't revelatory. We're down a non-player character.

If he's mafia, then YAY! And we learn that the mafia was running scared from Oso--and are likely weak because of it.

Actually, there was one piece of revelation he left us: he said he was a hypocrite for targetting md5 because he thinks players who aren't active are boring. At the time, it looked like an indictment of his behavior up to that point, but currently, it looks like an admission he wasn't going to be an active player.

It might mean he's a townie who realized mid-game he didn't want to play or wasn't going to have time to be fully engaged. Or, it might be a brilliant move by a Godfather to give himself a good reason to appear like he isn't going to be playing, knowing a detective would spot him as a townie, and he'd probably be above reproach until it was too late--much like we suspected Neville might be doing in a previous game--though Neville was just a townie who decided he didn't like the flavour of the game. Still, Logan was in that game, and saw how effective it could be.

But... if so, why not just come out and say he was quitting? Why leave it up in the air like that? Why leave it as just an implication? He might have felt saying it directly would draw too much attention in the early game when low post count players were getting targetted. Neville very nearly got killed, and would have if he wasn't Neville, and Logan isn't Neville by a wide margin.


Thinking about the mafia in general, what are the odds that the mafia is made up of noobs? Four out of sixteen are apparently new to the game: Jolly, Noir, Dirac, and Chobani. If there are four mafia, that means there is a 1/1820 chance all four were chosen. If we assume three mafia, then it goes to 1/140 chance that all the mafia are noobs.

Perhaps more revealing is that there is a 27% chance that no noobs are mafia if there are four mafia and a 39% that no noobs are in the mafia.

I think it reasonable to guess that there is at least one noob in the mafia. For my money, that points at Dirac. He panicked when targeted--not unreasonable for a noob, doubly so for a noob who pulled a mafia card in his very first game. He quieted down when things were explained to him by Oso, but it's possible he quieted down because his cohorts were screaming at him to STFU. His last post was to load into the dogpile on md5, which at that point was both safe and prudent--gives the appearance of at last letting go of his death grip on chobani--granted it was after chobani had switched as well.

Since then he's been quiet. So quiet that P-O has openly remarked he's dropped from his (P-O's) radar. That means he fits the profile: he became visible enough to be removed from the list of silent players, but then dropped from existence now that he's established himself as playing.

My current short list: LowIQLogan, Dirac, Randall

Madrigal
01-07-2014, 02:16 AM
It seems that most people seem to have either LowIQLogan or Etherealsage on their top suspects lists. Would it make sense to do a vote where we all one of the two - whoever we would rather lynch between the two? This may give us an idea of who is more suspicious overall.

I was thinking the exact same thing. Even considered starting a poll with two options, just for clarity. Then I feared this would make me suspect for overly aggressive behavior. I also have my doubts that everyone would participate in that poll, as with my other thread.

Hephaestus
01-07-2014, 02:18 AM
Oops, thought didn't finish: 39% chance no noobs in the mafia if there are only three mafia. Obviously higher if there are only two, but I think 3 or 4 seems more likely based on previous game distributions.

Hephaestus
01-07-2014, 02:27 AM
I have a hard time with the EtherealSage angle. The reason I have a hard time is because I can't shake the feeling he's targeted because as he's openly stated, so far, he's always been mafia. I think that information is prejudicial, and I'm wired for underdog rooting.

But, Works and Maddy have made some good arguments from current game knowledge. I'm open for a runoff between LowIQLogan and EtherealSage. Either way, we'll end up with one less low/shallow participation player, and might actually get some useful knowledge out of it.

JollyBard
01-07-2014, 02:35 AM
I'm voting LowIQLogan.

We can analyse over and over again, but we don't have enough data to really suspect someone. At this point, it seems like we can only go on hunches.

I seriously think we should kill off the inactive ones until we can't afford to do it anymore. We really need to have one confirmed mafia before we can extrapolate the others. I mean, right now, anybody can be mafia, and the thing is that this isn't like a real-life game of mafia where you really look people in the eye; it's much much harder to know when someone is lying, and it's much less tiring for the mafia to lie all the time. There's also much more time to figure out strategies... in real-life mafia, the mafia can't really communicate between eachother. So I don't think we can win this just by getting our psychoanalytical games out to figure people out. So we might analyse and analyse everything, the mafia can always be ahead of us.

We need data.

Hephaestus
01-07-2014, 03:29 AM
I was going through the thread again to put together a current tally and noted my meandering thoughts had lead me down a garden path: Dirac is posting more than I'm giving him credit for. This is ironic because one of those posts was analysis I thought was pretty good. With that in mind, my new short list is: LowIQLogan, EtherealSage, Randall.

Why promote EtherealSage over Randall? Well, Randall is being Randall. Suspicious, cagey and defensive. EtherealSage is someone I don't really know much about other than his baggage. But there are some solid arguments appearing against him, and he hasn't really put much into this game in his posts. For all his posts, he seems about as engaged as LowIQLogan.

My current tally shows:

EtherealSage
Works
Madrigal
Randall

LowIQLogan
P-O
Hephaestus
chobani
JollyBard

Works
Noir

Madrigal
01-07-2014, 04:07 AM
It will be interesting to see who Etherealsage and Logan vote for.

Light Leak
01-07-2014, 04:33 AM
I'm going with LowIQLogan for now. Either way he's not helping at all, and Heph's post has reminded me of the whole Neville situation last game. May as well get it over with I guess. I can't tell if Dirac has voted or not this round since his latest post had two bolded names.

EtherealSage
Works
Madrigal
Randall

LowIQLogan
P-O
Hephaestus
chobani
JollyBard
Light Leak

Works
Noir

Light Leak
01-07-2014, 04:34 AM
I forgot to bold my vote for LowIQLogan.

P-O
01-07-2014, 04:39 AM
On the subject of ethereal sage vs logan i think it's a good idea to see a vote between just those 2, but we nearly have that already with the current tally. Personally I think they're probably both townies, so I'm more in favor of killing logan first, because he talks less. Hopefully he turns out not to be a special.


on the subject of specials: I think we should try to be more organized about directing the specials' targets. This would help us get more information quicker. For example: we could direct the vigilante to kill ES and we vote to kill logan and hope that the vigilante consents to our wishes. Meanwhile, assuming there's a detective/police type character, we can specify a third target to investigate. This also prevents vigilante and detective from targeting the same person.

1 way we could do this is by taking our short lists and assigning number value to rank (3,2,1)...then the names which tally the highest are "most suspicious" although at this point, the mafiosi aren't likely to tally the highest.

the specials are free to take or leave our advice but i figure we should try to help them out.

Light Leak
01-07-2014, 04:45 AM
on the subject of specials: I think we should try to be more organized about directing the specials' targets. This would help us get more information quicker. For example: we could direct the vigilante to kill ES and we vote to kill logan and hope that the vigilante consents to our wishes.

If the vigilante has limited kills, it may be best to not use them all until there's more concrete evidence. Although I can't see it hurting to go ahead and make suggestions anyway.

P-O
01-07-2014, 04:54 AM
If the vigilante has limited kills, it may be best to not use them all until there's more concrete evidence. Although I can't see it hurting to go ahead and make suggestions anyway.

I disagree. The vigilante is likely to be killed eventually. The best strategy is to move us along quickly. If these people won't even defend themselves from accusations, we need to clear them out of the game asap.

P-O
01-07-2014, 04:55 AM
and in any case, taking a random shot is better than not taking a shot.

Works
01-07-2014, 04:59 AM
I disagree. The vigilante is likely to be killed eventually. The best strategy is to move us along quickly. If these people won't even defend themselves from accusations, we need to clear them out of the game asap.

Agreed.



and in any case, taking a random shot is better than not taking a shot.

Not sure I follow you on this one. Can you explain your logic more or at least math it out? Or are you just reinforcing your previous point about clearing out the nonplayers?

P-O
01-07-2014, 05:14 AM
Not sure I follow you on this one. Can you explain your logic more or at least math it out? Or are you just reinforcing your previous point about clearing out the nonplayers?

I'm saying if i randomly kill 3 people right now and 1 of them turns out to be the mafia (as the odds suggest should happen), that'd be a huge victory for the townies. Their advantage is that they have a great deal of control over what kills we make. If all kills were random, townies would win often.

JollyBard
01-07-2014, 05:21 AM
I'm saying if i randomly kill 3 people right now and 1 of them turns out to be the mafia (as the odds suggest should happen), that'd be a huge victory for the townies. Their advantage is that they have a great deal of control over what kills we make. If all kills were random, townies would win often.

The Wikipedia article on mafia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mafia_(party_game)#Game_experience_and_strategy) has fascinating stuff on this.

P-O
01-07-2014, 05:34 AM
^Yea i guess their explanation is a bit more complete.

Hephaestus
01-07-2014, 05:43 AM
I'm saying if i randomly kill 3 people right now and 1 of them turns out to be the mafia (as the odds suggest should happen), that'd be a huge victory for the townies. Their advantage is that they have a great deal of control over what kills we make. If all kills were random, townies would win often.
Interesting. But we don't get three random kills. We only get two kills. The mafia would see three kills though. And one of them is guaranteed to be townie.

I'm suddenly feeling an urge to change my vote. Convince me not to.

Hephaestus
01-07-2014, 05:53 AM
Side note: working on two random kills: with two random kills and four mafia the probability of hitting a mafia would be 64%. If there are three mafia, the probability would be 42%--if I'm doing it right.

For now I'm shifting to P-O. He posts rarely, though he seems incisive. But he doesn't give much to go on. Plus, his analysis of our kill situation smells mafia to me.

EtherealSage
Works
Madrigal
Randall

LowIQLogan
P-O
chobani
JollyBard
Light Leak

Works
Noir

P-O
Hephaestus

P-O
01-07-2014, 05:53 AM
Interesting. But we don't get three random kills. We only get two kills. The mafia would see three kills though. And one of them is guaranteed to be townie.

I'm suddenly feeling an urge to change my vote. Convince me not to.
You're right, that hypothetical situation isn't the situation we find ourselves in.

Your vote isn't for a random kill. We're not using a randomized strategy to decide which people to lynch. I was just explaining that a random strategy, while it's worse in my opinion than the one we're using, is still more effective than not shooting (I was speaking in support of the idea that the vigilante should fire his ammo as quickly as possible ).

Our strategy is to analyze the text of the players and deduce the mafiosi from that. People who don't talk prevent us from effectively using our strategy, so eliminating them is important. I don't see the relationship between the hypothetical you quoted and the person you voted for.

Hephaestus
01-07-2014, 05:59 AM
The relationship is this: based on the kills so far, a townie would see the opportunity to kill two people in the present situation. The first turn resulted in three kills, but only two were town directed. If the same event flow plays out tonight, it could be three more kills from our current group, but I think only a mafia member could see it as all three for their side.

Your choice of three random kills is suspicious for this reason. I think a true townie would look at two kills.

P-O
01-07-2014, 06:01 AM
I chose three because there are 12 players besides me, and the math works out easy.

P-O
01-07-2014, 06:02 AM
i.e. 4 mafia = 1/3 of 12

Hephaestus
01-07-2014, 06:03 AM
You are right, we aren't dealing with random kills. They should be better than random because we are working with more information. If your point was to note we have better than random odds, you should have made your hypothetical closer to our real. I'm not convinced yet it wasn't a slip--but I'll give it some thought.

P-O
01-07-2014, 06:05 AM
I was speaking in support of the vigilante shooting quickly before he died. Even if he shoots randomly, that's to our benefit. This was in response to light leak's objection that vigilante should wait for good evidence before shooting.

Hephaestus
01-07-2014, 06:08 AM
I find fudging for easier numbers to be laughably credible.

Combinatorics yields better numbers though. Both in accuracy and in optimism.

I need to wait till my blood has cooled before I make my final decision on this.

Hephaestus
01-07-2014, 06:08 AM
The maddening part is I concur with your conclusion.

P-O
01-07-2014, 06:15 AM
Well that's good to hear.

Lilith
01-07-2014, 07:30 AM
I seriously think we should kill off the inactive ones until we can't afford to do it anymore.

Why, because pulling out a noob act will spare you from suspicion?

I don't know about you but this is a psychological game not a 'burn them all' RPG game. Everyone is a suspect, everyone's in their defenses. I see no deeper reason in voting the quieter players other the boring side of the game. But come to think of it, if I were a mafia, the first thing for me to do is to blend in. And that is, I engage in the discussion more, even attempt at pointing fingers and outing players. Sequentially, this will stir up paranoia among townies killing the less active players who for all we know are trying to observe from a distance. Another thing is the 'flailing noob'. Gee, noob or not, mafia is mafia. Why are we more forgiving with the noobs? Lastly, the 'townie trait". Fuck that shit, anyone can be paranoid. Anyone can act innocent. Even a mafia can pull a townie card.

I'm not verbose as you all are but I think killing the quieter ones is just a known townie pitfall which the mafia is most likely taking advantage at this point.

EtherealSage
Works
Madrigal
Randall

LowIQLogan
P-O
Hephaestus
chobani
JollyBard

Works
Noir
mccrissanth

Lilith
01-07-2014, 07:34 AM
Sorry, I missed Hephaestus last vote.

EtherealSage
Works
Madrigal
Randall

LowIQLogan
P-O
chobani
JollyBard
Light Leak

Works
Noir
mccrissanth

P-O
Hephaestus

Etherealsage
01-07-2014, 07:43 AM
I said before Works is my number 1 suspicion. I have no intention of voting LowIQLogan to keep myself safe.

EtherealSage
Works
Madrigal
Randall

LowIQLogan
P-O
chobani
JollyBard
Light Leak

Works
Noir
mccrissanth
Etherealsage

P-O
Hephaestus

I think P-O is almost certainly Townie. Voting for him is a mistake, as he's been one of the voices of reason throughout the game. LowIQ is essentially a non-player right now, though, food for thought: His last activity was 27 minutes ago viewing this thread, and he hasn't said anything.

Works
01-07-2014, 08:18 AM
No surprise there with Sage voting for me. Currently all three of the strikes against me are people from my suspect list. Granted, Noir and Sage suspected me before I posted my list, but Mccrissanth is new and makes me suspect her more. I think Mccrissanth saw an opportunity for momentum and jumped on. Really, it just leaves me to puzzle out which of of the three people is a townie because I find it highly unlikely that three Mafia would bunch up together in a small target like that. Seriously, if the Mafia really wanted me dead, they'd just kill me themselves, so it doesn't make sense to expose themselves like that. However, two is a calculated risk they might take.

If Sage dies and he's Mafia then Noir is probably a townie and Mccrissanth is the other Mafia so kill her next.
If Sage dies and he's a townie, my life is probably going to be pretty short, but that'll support my idea that Mccissanth and/or Noir are Mafia.

LowIQLogan
01-07-2014, 08:33 AM
I'm not going to defend not posting other than I just didn't feel like it and I never feel like I have anything to say anyways. I'm sure if any of you super nerds want to go look up the other games I've been in you can see my posts are always back heavy in these games, although I shouldn't use that as an excuse because it is extreme in this game as this will be my second post. And I just lied because I am going to defend myself. I definitely have been reading the threads and it kinda tickled me to just use an exaggerated strategy of whatever EtherealSage was doing because I have a mafiagame man crush on him. So I just didn't post for another couple days to see if that would unlock the secrets of the mafioso. But it didn't do anything except let me see who is eager to lynch me and who isn't eager to lynch me. Which isn't much, because I would def be voting for myself right now if I wasn't the only townie I knew.

But since I do know that I'm a townie here are some of my wild assumptions and even wilder analysis of the situation:

-I am suspicious of people who don't want to vote for me or accuse me. IMO I am the obvious townie choice to lynch. Oso was a townie and he knew it. This makes me very suspicious of otherwise 'smart' players who are not voting for me. Namely Madrigal who is always adamant about killing nonvocal members (why is she voting for the second least vocal member?) and EtherealSage who has just said he doesn't want to vote for me in order to save himself. Instead I think he has voted for someone else in an attempt to make the votes more of a townie vs townie situation.

-Based on past games of mafia I have played I think early turn votes are usually influenced by mafia to make the plurality between townie and townie so that the rest of the townies feel like they have to choose one of these people for their vote to matter. For me this seems like even more of the case because I know for sure I am a townie. Also, like I said in my first post I think mafia like to separate themselves from other mafia. Because of this my intuition wants to believe that the mafia would try to make the votes between townies but with each of them voting for a different townie. So here is the list of votes with that in mind.

EtherealSage
Works
Madrigal
Randall

LowIQLogan
P-O
chobani
JollyBard
Light Leak

Works
Noir
mccrissanth
Etherealsage

P-O
Hephaestus

abstained
Dirac




I'm not sure if that is everyone but whatevs.

My suspect list is EtherealSage and Madrigal right now for reasons I have mentioned. Of course I realize this is contradictory because Madrigal is voting for ES right now and he has a very real chance of getting lynched but I never really considered myself good at this game and my intuition is terrible in these situations anyways. I don't really have a third in suspicion, everyone else ties for third basically. I had actually written that I wasn't going to vote for EtherealSage just to save myself before ES wrote that himself. So when I read that he posted the same thing I was like "omg i have become the master".
But I guess keeping to my original strategy I will vote for EtherealSage because I am a hypocrite.

P-O
01-07-2014, 08:36 AM
..
ES, I'm relatively confident that works is a townie. Note that you're likely going to die this night if the vigilante agrees with me on that.
In light of that, it's in your interest to develop a compelling case against somebody who isn't you that might convince the vigilante to spare your life and kill the other party instead.

P-O
01-07-2014, 08:47 AM
...

Shame on you for wasting our valuable lynch in that case.

LowIQLogan
01-07-2014, 08:48 AM
P-O, you are at an amusement park and want to ride the carousel. You have a choice between riding a horsey with a shotgun in the saddlebag or you can sit in a uhh towncar. Which do you choose?

Hephaestus
01-07-2014, 09:33 AM
LowIQLogan has said he adored EtherealSage's playstyle. EtherealSage has historically been mafia, and Logan has been imitating that mafia behavior. For what purpose? Strikes me as very strange.

LowIQLogan

EtherealSage
Works
Madrigal
Randall
LowIQLogan

LowIQLogan
P-O
chobani
JollyBard
Light Leak
Hephaestus

Works
Noir
mccrissanth
Etherealsage

abstained
Dirac

Light Leak
01-07-2014, 01:29 PM
I was speaking in support of the vigilante shooting quickly before he died. Even if he shoots randomly, that's to our benefit. This was in response to light leak's objection that vigilante should wait for good evidence before shooting.

I still don't really agree with the randomly part, but then math really isn't my thing. Maybe statistically it does work in our favor. I wouldn't know.

It just seems like if there was a situation where the vote was pretty much unanimous and there wasn't really a strong second candidate for lynching it might not be the best idea for the vigilante to just randomly choose someone just to be able to use a kill. It would be better if we had something to go on.

Right now we do the split between LowIQLogan and Etherealsage. Works is getting a decent amount of votes too, although personally I would hope that a vigilante would not target Works. I don't have reason to believe he's mafia at this point.

Madrigal
01-07-2014, 04:31 PM
Just because you have a bullet doesn't mean you know any more than any other townie. IMO, it's better to die without having fired a shot than to kill someone on insufficient evidence. I sucked as a vigilante and yet I was really sure I was killing a mafia (I only killed one once on the basis of a psychology game, but that mafia player was cripple and she basically outted herself. Luckily, I was killed before I shot the townie I planned to kill next). This type of special power is best to use later in the game. I don't know how a random shot is statistically better for the townies, and like Light Leak, I suck at math.

While I'm on that point, I find Heph's mathematical calculations impenetrable.

Noir
01-07-2014, 04:52 PM
11 hours till nightfall everybody, FYI.

Noir
01-07-2014, 04:55 PM
Polemarch has been killed. He was Vanilla Townie! Markings on the body suggest it wasn't the Mafia.

Also, I stress that this is a Day phase killing.

This has been bothering me. Kyuri stressed that this was a "Day phase" killing. Doesn't the vigilante typically operate at night. What if we're all just chasing our own tails when there's a serial killer or his ilk on the loose?

Kyuri
01-07-2014, 05:01 PM
I will be busy tomorrow, so this Day phase will probably end about 5 hours late. Sorry for the inconvenience.

JollyBard
01-07-2014, 05:25 PM
This has been bothering me. Kyuri stressed that this was a "Day phase" killing. Doesn't the vigilante typically operate at night. What if we're all just chasing our own tails when there's a serial killer or his ilk on the loose?

Or maybe this particular special's abilities allow him to kill people DURING a day pĥase.

Etherealsage really gives off a mafia vibe. I can't really pinpoint why exactly, but the fact that he's defending P-O, who feels equally mafia to me, is kind of suspicious.

JollyBard
01-07-2014, 05:28 PM
Why, because pulling out a noob act will spare you from suspicion?

I don't know about you but this is a psychological game not a 'burn them all' RPG game. Everyone is a suspect, everyone's in their defenses. I see no deeper reason in voting the quieter players other the boring side of the game. But come to think of it, if I were a mafia, the first thing for me to do is to blend in. And that is, I engage in the discussion more, even attempt at pointing fingers and outing players. Sequentially, this will stir up paranoia among townies killing the less active players who for all we know are trying to observe from a distance. Another thing is the 'flailing noob'. Gee, noob or not, mafia is mafia. Why are we more forgiving with the noobs? Lastly, the 'townie trait". Fuck that shit, anyone can be paranoid. Anyone can act innocent. Even a mafia can pull a townie card.


Oh man, if I were mafia and I knew I sucked balls at the game, I'd just try to help the townies and act normally. That'd be brilliant.

Noir
01-07-2014, 05:39 PM
Correction: ~16 hours to nightfall.

Noir
01-07-2014, 05:42 PM
Or maybe this particular special's abilities allow him to kill people DURING a day pĥase.

Etherealsage really gives off a mafia vibe. I can't really pinpoint why exactly, but the fact that he's defending P-O, who feels equally mafia to me, is kind of suspicious.

My point is that in traditional Mafia, "Vigilante" is a night phase role. "Serial Killer" is a day phase role. The Serial Killer wins when he's the last man standing, so his killing of Polemarch could have been entirely random.

Blorg
01-07-2014, 05:45 PM
why aren't people more suspicious of Dirac?


Or maybe this particular special's abilities allow him to kill people DURING a day pĥase.

well I assume that's the case since Kyuri said, "I stress that this is a day phase killing."

JollyBard
01-07-2014, 05:51 PM
My point is that in traditional Mafia, "Vigilante" is a night phase role. "Serial Killer" is a day phase role. The Serial Killer wins when he's the last man standing, so his killing of Polemarch could have been entirely random.

Oh! Well, I guess that must be it, then.

Noir
01-07-2014, 07:41 PM
I've just re-read the entire thread for Day 1 and Day 2, and now my brain hurts.

My revised list is now as follows:
1. Works
2. ?
3. ?

Let me try to explain my rationale, starting with Works.


I'm a townie. I say we keep Madrigal alive and kill Etherealsage. Let Madrigal play a little bit. If anything, it's entertaining. For the first vote, it's entirely random but we know a little bit about people from past games. If Etherealsage is a townie, he might be helpful in deducing the Mafia, but it's going to be hard to trust him.

Literally Works' first post was to accuse Ethereal Sage. Later on he targets ES's inconsistency as being suspect, but if ES has always been mafia up to this point, then it makes since that his Townie play would be different. Later on he agrees to killing either Md5 or LowIQLogan,


I'm fine with that. If they're townies, they aren't helping the investigation. Later on, they hurt the game even more with the lack of record. Of course, if they're Mafia, they're being kind of dumb because we've played enough games where the silent ones always get scrutinized more.

He admits that they're either dumb mafia or unhelpful Townies, hardly a strong case for a true mafioso in either case. Notice his energies have been directed at strong players (ES) and weak players (LowIQLogan, Md5) respectively, a move which effectively draws attention away from the middle. This expectation that the mafia are outliers is misguided and wrong imo.

Moving onto Day 2, this whole analysis is fishy to me:

Not too surprising that I'm topping a few people's lists. Participating and putting names out there paints a big ole target on your back for both fellow townies and the Mafia. I haven't updated my list for a while, so here's my current overall impressions.


1. LowIQLogan - Unclear. he's playing a dangerous game either way by not participating. He's not really moving up or down my suspect list, but it's frustrating that we'll have to deal with his absence sooner rather than later and most likely lose another body between us and Mafia.
2. mccrissanth -Leaning Mafia. We've really been too quick to give her a pass for her sparse play. She's a nice person, but I wouldn't put it past her to use that reputation to lull us into a false sense of security. Maybe the godfather.
3. Etherealsage - My top Mafia choice. The shallow analysis and the chain of events since Oso's death lead me to believe he's Mafia. He tried to be quiet, but wasn't ready for pressure. My other theory is that he's a vanilla townie who is annoyed that he has no powers and isn't in the Mafia circle where he's better able to control things, which is really going to suck for me if it's true.
4. Hephaestus - Leaning Townie. Heph is always hard for me to read. I think it's because I find the way he talks in all his Mafia games to be a bit unnatural. Analysis was really shallow so far in Day two. However, day one, he was actually providing more of useful analysis of both the game and players.
5. Dirac - Leaning Townie- Doing a lot of thinking out loud which is indicative of townie play.
6. Noir - Probable Mafia. On one hand, Oso suspected him and then got killed. But that seems entirely too obvious a ploy. I keep thinking about the scene from Princess Bride and Iocaine powder as far as how we should interpret Oso's death. Which cup is the poison in, dammit! Lastly, his reaction to the death of Polemarch was a bit hammy and not a lot of participation in the first round.
7. P-O - Probable townie. Consistently measured responses and continually presses people for suspect lists. Could just be a brilliant Mafia player though. There's something cold about some of his posts, but at the same time he was nice to Jollybard when I was being an ass to him.
8. JollyBard - Ineffective Townie. This may come back to bite me, but the flailing about doesn't seem to be an act.
9. chobani - Leaning townie. Similar reasons to Jollybard.
10. Madrigal - Leaning townie. Sorry, I can never really trust you completely. You're playing this game like a townie, but you're scary good at assuming another persona.
11. Works - Townie.
12. Randall - Leaning Townie, Besides being absent early in the game, Randall seems to be pretty on the level. He also eventually got on that damned amusement park thread.
13. Light Leak - Slight Townie lean. Mostly posts to say that she can't get a good read on people which seems like a townie thing to say.

"Participating and putting names out there paints a big ole target on your back?" Works has voted for the majority candidate every time.


mccrissanth -Leaning Mafia. We've really been too quick to give her a pass for her sparse play. She's a nice person, but I wouldn't put it past her to use that reputation to lull us into a false sense of security. Maybe the godfather.

This analysis is just strange. He's pointing a finger but not giving much rationale other than avoiding "a false sense of security."


Etherealsage - My top Mafia choice. The shallow analysis and the chain of events since Oso's death lead me to believe he's Mafia. He tried to be quiet, but wasn't ready for pressure. My other theory is that he's a vanilla townie who is annoyed that he has no powers and isn't in the Mafia circle where he's better able to control things, which is really going to suck for me if it's true.

Works rightly concludes that if ES dies and is a Townie, the spotlight is going to point directly at him.


Noir - Probable Mafia. On one hand, Oso suspected him and then got killed. But that seems entirely too obvious a ploy. I keep thinking about the scene from Princess Bride and Iocaine powder as far as how we should interpret Oso's death. Which cup is the poison in, dammit! Lastly, his reaction to the death of Polemarch was a bit hammy and not a lot of participation in the first round.

"Probable" Mafia! Probable! He admits Oso's list probably isn't magic but still cites that as evidence, with the final nail naturally being my "hammy" response to Polemarch's death! LOL 1. Polemarch was not even killed by the Mafia, so I fail to see how a "hammy" response could contribute to the implication of me as being anything but the vigilante/killer (which would be more of an exoneration, tbh), 2. That post was clearly tongue-in-cheek, starting with the phrase "Shit. Shit Shit." and 3. Your indictment of me comes immediately after I first listed you as a suspect, so your accusation comes of a little "No you!" in context.

The ideal strategy for the mafia in my mind is that of conformity and deflection. Works has done nothing but conform and deflect this entire game. And another thing: I think Townies are more likely to actively defend themselves than the mafia. As a Mafia member, you have 2-3 cohorts capable of deflecting attention away from you on the boards whereas as a Townie, you are left to fend for yourself. I haven't seen a lot of defensiveness from Works, just deflection (see above).

Dirac
01-07-2014, 07:42 PM
For now I am voting for Etherealsage. Based on this sentence he wrote about me being quiet:


Here he is all but saying that if I am a townie, then I have a special role. If ES is a townie, why the fuck would he make that mistake? It only helps the mafia to speculate who the townie special roles are. For example, if I thought Osito was the detective or vigilante, I would keep my fucking mouth shut about it, and try to redirect any suspicion that might fall on him. If Etherealsage is as good at mafia as people say, he wouldn't have made such a noob mistake if he was a townie.

I actually find this fairly convincing - if this is some ES/Randall mafia ploy it's a very clever one and I don't think the mafia need to be/would be that clever. For that reason ES goes up in my suspicions and Randall comes down.


Here's what I think. The Mafia may have made a rapid decision to kill Oso on the basis of the last posts in the lynching thread. Before md5's lynching, everyone was more or less saying the same thing, there was consensus. The consensus then moved quickly onto killing Randall next. You can call that uncontroversial. The waters were only divided when Logan and Etherealsage came into the picture as suspects:

Oso points to Logan. Works accuses Etherealsage. I start bickering with Etherealsage. He moves up as a suspect. Bam, Oso's dead. What does that mean?

I don't want to get tunnel vision on two players (let alone one), but I think the mafia kill has a lot to do with the them. Did they let me live because I was guessing wrong? Or did they kill Oso because he pointed at Logan and a mafioso shat their pants about it? It's a risky move, but they may have wanted to remove Logan before it snowballed.
I can see the logic in this, but to me Etherealsage seems more suspicious and so that makes the logic fall down a bit. Although maybe it could be that you're right and that this is a reason to suspect Logan over ES. To be clear, I believe Logan's post about him emulating ES, which put him down in my suspicions.


Good stuff overall. I think what you say makes a lot of sense, right up until the end where you lose sight of the common thread that kept you, chobani, and Jolly alive: who creates more paranoia in townies?

So, who creates more paranoia in townies? Oso, with his cheery vibe? Or Maddy who enforces paranoia and fear as the markers of a true townie? Granted, Oso baits people, but in baiting people, he gets them to voluntarily talk and something to talk about that might get a mafia to lose their cool in the heat of passion--he provoked people and anger makes bolder fools than fear. Maddy provides conflicting incentives: townies are frightened and paranoid, but talk boldy and speak their minds.

Let your imagination think about that combo for a moment, what comes to mind? Panicked chattering is what comes to my mind. It's possible they chose Oso over Maddy for the same reason Oso was chosen over the others: because leaving Maddy alive does more to further their agenda than killing her.

In past games, I was left alive because I was a lightning rod for accusation. By not killing me, regardless of how effective my analysis was or wasn't, they could count on people trying to lynch me day after day. This lead me to have to split my attention between not being lynched and finding better targets, but it also meant that day after day, attention was almost certain to be focused on a known townie. The irony is that I was accused of "distraction tactics", when I was actually the tactical distraction.

What I'm suggesting is that maybe something similar is true here.
But it seemed to me like Oso was causing more paranoia. I'm probably misremembering now, and I don't have time to go and check, but Oso's almost random finger wagging seemed to cause more townie fear than Maddie's more steady approach. I see what you're saying but I'm just not completely sure about it. Again though, I still haven't read the Amusement park thread - I should really do that at some point.

Anyway, all things considered I want to update my list:

Etherealsage
LowIQLogan
Works/Randall

Light Leak
01-07-2014, 08:32 PM
So updating the tally it looks like there is currently a tie between Etherealsage and LowIQLogan. I'm not sure what happens if this ends in a tie.

EtherealSage
Works
Madrigal
Randall
LowIQLogan
Dirac

LowIQLogan
P-O
chobani
JollyBard
Light Leak
Hephaestus

Works
Noir
mccrissanth
Etherealsage

P-O
01-07-2014, 08:56 PM
P-O, you are at an amusement park and want to ride the carousel. You have a choice between riding a horsey with a shotgun in the saddlebag or you can sit in a uhh towncar. Which do you choose?

I think my avatar answers that question closely enough.

P-O
01-07-2014, 09:00 PM
Who thinks we should kill both ES and logan?

Madrigal
01-07-2014, 09:36 PM
-I am suspicious of people who don't want to vote for me or accuse me. IMO I am the obvious townie choice to lynch. Oso was a townie and he knew it. This makes me very suspicious of otherwise 'smart' players who are not voting for me. Namely Madrigal who is always adamant about killing nonvocal members (why is she voting for the second least vocal member?) and EtherealSage who has just said he doesn't want to vote for me in order to save himself. Instead I think he has voted for someone else in an attempt to make the votes more of a townie vs townie situation.

You are not the obvious choice. But you are one of my prime suspects. If Etherealsage is mafia, and he gets lynched, I'll still suspect you. I will suspect you cannibalized Sage and that you might be the godfather. That's how much I suspect you. Especially since Etherealsage isn't targetting you himself, which I would do if anyone could rival my votes. Better them than me.

Let's put it this way: If you think I'm so smart, and you're so sure you're townie, then why can't that mean I'm smart enough to suspect Etherealsage before you? At the same time you won't give me credit for this, Etherealsage is your prime suspect. Your analysis doesn't add up. I've made it to second place on the basis of this flimsy logic.


Based on past games of mafia I have played I think early turn votes are usually influenced by mafia to make the plurality between townie and townie so that the rest of the townies feel like they have to choose one of these people for their vote to matter. For me this seems like even more of the case because I know for sure I am a townie.

That's nice, but I have the opposite impression. I have the impression that when we're already targetting a townie, the mafia would hop on the bandwagon and only split up to target a lower-profile townie. The move would not be suspicious enough to generate a backlash against the renegade, or to create instability in which a mafia could really become the new target. If it ain't broke, don't fix it, tha mafia should tends to act conservatively and only create the bare minimum amount of controversy when they already have a townie in the bag.

The fact this is hardly a lopsided list of three suspects indicates there is a struggle unfolding, and makes me confident at least one of them if mafia.

Madrigal
01-07-2014, 09:37 PM
Sorry bout the typos, I didn't spell-check. Ugh.

Madrigal
01-07-2014, 10:01 PM
I've just re-read the entire thread for Day 1 and Day 2, and now my brain hurts.

My revised list is now as follows:
1. Works
2. ?
3. ?

Let me try to explain my rationale, starting with Works.

Your whole analysis sounds forced and I have been giving you a pass because your few posts have been quite reasonable up to this point. The quote that you said "sounds fishy" is a list I agreed with almost 100%. Are you jumping because Works suspects you? Just because of that? Did you retro-analyze everything he said just because he suspects you?

Noir
01-07-2014, 10:18 PM
Your whole analysis sounds forced and I have been giving you a pass because your few posts have been quite reasonable up to this point. The quote that you said "sounds fishy" is a list I agreed with almost 100%. Are you jumping because Works suspects you? Just because of that? Did you retro-analyze everything he said just because he suspects you?

Not at all, I suspected him anyway. I've said this before, I don't think that the mafia are going to be marginal players. That Logan/Randall could be Mafia seems unlikely to me given the overwhelming scrutiny they've had so far. Sage is being singled out in the same manner other vets such as Osito/Polemarch/Heph have been, and I think that scrutiny is unjustified. I'm looking at the center of the bell curve, where the evidence is necessarily sparse and where I think the mafia is most likely to be, so I apologize if my analysis sounds forced to you. Osito showed us early on that the best way to get someone to talk was to prod them a bit, and Works has pretty much been left alone.

Light Leak
01-08-2014, 01:05 AM
Ok... we're still at a tie between Etherealsage and LowIQLogan. Does anyone happen to know what happens if there's a tie? Do we have a tiebreaker? Do both get lynched? Does no one get lynched? I don't know. I'm not sure if it's something we should try to prevent from happening.

I'm hesitant to change my vote. This might seem strange to some of you because LowIQLogan and Etherealsage were my top two suspects. I could just switch my vote to Etherealsage and break the tie. Here's why I'm hesitant to do that.

Everything was pretty quiet. Everyone had placed a vote, besides Dirac. We had a majority vote for LowIQLogan. It seems like this round is winding down and we're just waiting to see what happens, right? Then Noir shows up and starts reminding us how many hours we have left. This is kind of odd because everyone has already placed a vote except Dirac.

Noir also starts suggesting that the special character is serial killer instead of a vigilante because Kyuri had said that it was a day phase kill. I'm not sure where Noir got the info that the vigilante can only act during the night, and not during the day. Can anyone else confirm if this is true or not? I still think there is the possibility that we have a vigilante and I don't see why a vigilante couldn't act during the day. I guess I thought it depended on who was running the game. Anyway, to me this looks like a possible mafia scare tactic, especially since a discussion had been going on about whether it was better for a vigilante should act now or later.

Then later Noir gets really Gung Ho about why we should target Works. This whole thing is very unsettling to me. It seems like Noir is trying to scare us into thinking there's a serial killer and then direct our suspicion onto Works.

The other part that unsettles me is that literally a minute after Noir makes his post about Works, Dirac chimes in - only Dirac is against Etherealsage. Dirac casts his vote for Etherealsage and we're left with a tie.

I can't help but think that maybe LowIQLogan is mafia, and either Noir or Dirac (possibly both) are trying to get us to alter our votes. That's why I'm hesitant to switch my vote.

Randall
01-08-2014, 01:29 AM
As far as I know, a tie results in no one getting killed.

Kyuri
01-08-2014, 01:35 AM
As far as I know, a tie results in no one getting killed.

Yeah, this is what I'm going with.

Light Leak
01-08-2014, 01:38 AM
^
So then it would make sense for mafia to try to end things with a tie, if one of them was at risk for being lynched.

Blorg
01-08-2014, 01:43 AM
As far as I know, a tie results in no one getting killed.

do you have anything against voting for LowIQLogan?

Madrigal
01-08-2014, 01:47 AM
Yeah, this is what I'm going with.

Before I get into posting, this is serious shit. We have to kill someone. We need two people, one from the Works accusers and one accusing Logan or Etherealsage, to agree to accuse the same person - Etherealsage or Logan. The reason we need two players to agree to this is to avoid the mafia rapidly tying the vote at the last minute. Does this make sense?

If there are three mafia, they might each be in a different group. If there are four, I'd assume two are voting Etherealsage, and possibly cannibalizing him. The reason for this is that Logan and Randall are the most unanimously suspected among Sage's voters. The Logan lynchers are less suspect in general. The Works lynchers only have one member who seems less suspect to me, which is Noir. It would be nice if two players who have not made many short-lists would agree to lynch either Logan or Etherealsage. If I am making a big logical mistake someone point it out.

Works
01-08-2014, 01:56 AM
Literally Works' first post was to accuse Ethereal Sage. Later on he targets ES's inconsistency as being suspect, but if ES has always been mafia up to this point, then it makes since that his Townie play would be different. Later on he agrees to killing either Md5 or LowIQLogan,



He admits that they're either dumb mafia or unhelpful Townies, hardly a strong case for a true mafioso in either case. Notice his energies have been directed at strong players (ES) and weak players (LowIQLogan, Md5) respectively, a move which effectively draws attention away from the middle. This expectation that the mafia are outliers is misguided and wrong imo.

Day one analysis is always a shot in the dark. Also, the stuff you quoted was super early in the game where everyone is feeling out strategy. I wasn't alone in wanting quiet players to speak up more. I voted for Md5 in the first round yes, but directed my actual vote to Ethereal on Day two.



Moving onto Day 2, this whole analysis is fishy to me:


"Participating and putting names out there paints a big ole target on your back?" Works has voted for the majority candidate every time.

Lol, does it count for nothing that I was the first person to vote for Etherealsage on day 2? Really weak and misleading point.




This analysis is just strange. He's pointing a finger but not giving much rationale other than avoiding "a false sense of security."
Am I pushing the wrong buttons? Hmmm?




Works rightly concludes that if ES dies and is a Townie, the spotlight is going to point directly at him.
It's a risk I'm willing to take, but I don't think I'm wrong about Sage.



"Probable" Mafia! Probable! He admits Oso's list probably isn't magic but still cites that as evidence, with the final nail naturally being my "hammy" response to Polemarch's death! LOL 1. Polemarch was not even killed by the Mafia, so I fail to see how a "hammy" response could contribute to the implication of me as being anything but the vigilante/killer (which would be more of an exoneration, tbh), 2. That post was clearly tongue-in-cheek, starting with the phrase "Shit. Shit Shit." and 3. Your indictment of me comes immediately after I first listed you as a suspect, so your accusation comes of a little "No you!" in context.


You've never seen the Princess Bride, huh? If you want me to try and reread your post of "shit shit shit" as tongue and cheek, I can try, but really it just sounds like you were being a try hard. Also yes, my suspicions of you grew after you tried to discredit me without really providing many details other than "playing it close to the chest." This post and your response to me just further confirms things.



The ideal strategy for the mafia in my mind is that of conformity and deflection. Works has done nothing but conform and deflect this entire game. And another thing: I think Townies are more likely to actively defend themselves than the mafia. As a Mafia member, you have 2-3 cohorts capable of deflecting attention away from you on the boards whereas as a Townie, you are left to fend for yourself. I haven't seen a lot of defensiveness from Works, just deflection (see above).

This would be a good analysis, if I were actually doing any conforming on day 2. This rationalization sounds a bit desperate.

P-O
01-08-2014, 01:57 AM
If somebody tried to tie it up at the last second, we'd know at least one mafia, so it's almost advantageous to invite that scenario. If they did tie it up, it would mean the person who would otherwise be lynched is probably mafia too.

Blorg
01-08-2014, 02:02 AM
Ok... we're still at a tie between Etherealsage and LowIQLogan. Does anyone happen to know what happens if there's a tie? Do we have a tiebreaker? Do both get lynched? Does no one get lynched? I don't know. I'm not sure if it's something we should try to prevent from happening.

I'm hesitant to change my vote. This might seem strange to some of you because LowIQLogan and Etherealsage were my top two suspects. I could just switch my vote to Etherealsage and break the tie. Here's why I'm hesitant to do that.

Everything was pretty quiet. Everyone had placed a vote, besides Dirac. We had a majority vote for LowIQLogan. It seems like this round is winding down and we're just waiting to see what happens, right? Then Noir shows up and starts reminding us how many hours we have left. This is kind of odd because everyone has already placed a vote except Dirac.

Noir also starts suggesting that the special character is serial killer instead of a vigilante because Kyuri had said that it was a day phase kill. I'm not sure where Noir got the info that the vigilante can only act during the night, and not during the day. Can anyone else confirm if this is true or not? I still think there is the possibility that we have a vigilante and I don't see why a vigilante couldn't act during the day. I guess I thought it depended on who was running the game. Anyway, to me this looks like a possible mafia scare tactic, especially since a discussion had been going on about whether it was better for a vigilante should act now or later.

Then later Noir gets really Gung Ho about why we should target Works. This whole thing is very unsettling to me. It seems like Noir is trying to scare us into thinking there's a serial killer and then direct our suspicion onto Works.

The other part that unsettles me is that literally a minute after Noir makes his post about Works, Dirac chimes in - only Dirac is against Etherealsage. Dirac casts his vote for Etherealsage and we're left with a tie.

I can't help but think that maybe LowIQLogan is mafia, and either Noir or Dirac (possibly both) are trying to get us to alter our votes. That's why I'm hesitant to switch my vote.


This post brought up some really good points.

As for the vigilante, according to Wikipedia they can only kill at night. So it's probably not a vigilante, which I guess could either be good or bad for us.

This might be too late since not everyone will have time to log on, but could we get everyone to vote for Dirac this round? He seems by far the most suspicious to me. In addition to everything else, he was reluctant to include LowIQLogan in his top 3, even though his only reason for choosing Randall as his top suspect was that Randall didn't post much (Logan posted even less). Then, he votes for EtherealSage, even though EtherealSage wasn't in his suspects list a few posts ago.

It seems like there's a chance of a tie this turn because we're divided. Maybe we can find consensus in a vote against Dirac instead?

For now, I'm going to change my vote to Dirac:

EtherealSage
Works
Madrigal
Randall
LowIQLogan

LowIQLogan
P-O
JollyBard
Light Leak
Hephaestus

Works
Noir
mccrissanth
Etherealsage

Dirac
Chobani

And I'll change back to Logan if no one else joins me in this vote.

JollyBard
01-08-2014, 02:04 AM
If somebody tried to tie it up at the last second, we'd know at least one mafia, so it's almost advantageous to invite that scenario. If they did tie it up, it would mean the person who would otherwise be lynched is probably mafia too.

It's also possible that it's just a normal tie.

For plurality, I change my vote to EtherealSage even though I'm really not sure. I'd rather we kill someone than not, though.

Works
01-08-2014, 02:04 AM
Can we not hand this game to the Mafia and figure out a way to break this tie? We already lost one round because of a missed vigilante shot. This is some serious bullshit here.

P-O
01-08-2014, 02:05 AM
you lost dirac's voite

Blorg
01-08-2014, 02:06 AM
ok here's the correct/up-to-date one:

EtherealSage
Works
Madrigal
Randall
LowIQLogan
Dirac
JollyBard



LowIQLogan
P-O
chobani
Light Leak
Hephaestus


Works
Noir
mccrissanth
Etherealsage

Dirac
Chobani

Works
01-08-2014, 02:07 AM
EtherealSage
Works
Madrigal
Randall
LowIQLogan
Dirac
Jollybard


LowIQLogan
P-O
chobani
Light Leak
Hephaestus

Works
Noir
mccrissanth
Etherealsage

Dirac
Chobani


Is this accurate?

Light Leak
01-08-2014, 02:09 AM
Chobani was on the other one twice. I think this is correct:

EtherealSage
Works
Madrigal
Randall
LowIQLogan
Dirac
JollyBard

LowIQLogan
P-O
Light Leak
Hephaestus

Works
Noir
mccrissanth
Etherealsage

Dirac
Chobani

Blorg
01-08-2014, 02:10 AM
:banghead:

I messed up again. THIS one is correct:

EtherealSage
Works
Madrigal
Randall
LowIQLogan
Dirac
Jollybard


LowIQLogan
P-O
Light Leak
Hephaestus

Works
Noir
mccrissanth
Etherealsage

Dirac
Chobani

Light Leak
01-08-2014, 02:10 AM
That fixes the tie problem, but I still can't shake the feeling that switching to Etherealsage is what the mafia wanted us to do.

P-O
01-08-2014, 02:11 AM
I'm down with switching but I think logan is the right target for this turn. We're going to have to kill Logan next turn anyway, whereas ES may yet provide us with something useful.

Works
01-08-2014, 02:11 AM
Ok, at this point I'm going to be very suspicious of any vote changes.

Light Leak
01-08-2014, 02:12 AM
As for the vigilante, according to Wikipedia they can only kill at night. So it's probably not a vigilante, which I guess could either be good or bad for us.

Wikipedia isn't always completely accurate.

JollyBard
01-08-2014, 02:13 AM
If Etherealsage turns out townie, could we say with fair certitude that Logan is mafia?

Noir
01-08-2014, 02:14 AM
I think they're both innocent, but kill whoever you want.

JollyBard
01-08-2014, 02:16 AM
Hey, isn't it kind of weird that the most suspected people are voting for Ethereal? Logan, Randall, Dirac, Works... Not that I personally believe they're mafia, but I'm really having second doubts on this one.

Light Leak
01-08-2014, 02:18 AM
Yeah, I'm thinking Etherealsage is probably going to come up townie.

Madrigal
01-08-2014, 02:21 AM
Then later Noir gets really Gung Ho about why we should target Works. This whole thing is very unsettling to me. It seems like Noir is trying to scare us into thinking there's a serial killer and then direct our suspicion onto Works.

The other part that unsettles me is that literally a minute after Noir makes his post about Works, Dirac chimes in - only Dirac is against Etherealsage. Dirac casts his vote for Etherealsage and we're left with a tie.

I can't help but think that maybe LowIQLogan is mafia, and either Noir or Dirac (possibly both) are trying to get us to alter our votes. That's why I'm hesitant to switch my vote.

You seem like a reasonable player and this is one of your few less administrative posts. Don't get me wrong, I get that the administrative thing only favors townies - it provides clarity and that's not in the mafia's interests. But here I think you might be grasping at straws. Noir thinks out loud all the time. He has said things that a mafia would think three times over before saying, namely, the townie network plan at the beginning of this thread. His accusing Works set off an alarm for me, but Works accused him first, which could result in Noir behaving in typical townie fashion - suspect those who suspect you. TBH, I am fearing that Etherealsage might be accusing Works for the same reason, but Etherealsage was raising suspicions even before Works bumped him to the top of his list.

Dirac is something of an unknown entity to me except for the post he made with a breakdown of why the mafia could have targetted Oso. Not only was it reasonable enough, but I think that much speculation on mafia strategy, coming from a mafia, would be a very aggressive move. Everything the mafia says has to be designed to mislead, and that's a lot of work. You can't just type those analyses like it's easy.

Great:



It seems like there's a chance of a tie this turn because we're divided. Maybe we can find consensus in a vote against Dirac instead?


Not with my help. This is crazy. We're obviously onto somthing with Etheral or Logan, and the trio including Works has brought up a struggle. I'm not budging.

JollyBard
01-08-2014, 02:25 AM
Madrigal, why are you voting Etherealsage and not Logan?

P-O
01-08-2014, 02:34 AM
It's also possible that it's just a normal tie.

Not really...A townie would have to be the biggest dunce in the world to switch his vote to a tie position at the last second. I'm willing to give our players at least that much credit.



If Etherealsage turns out townie, could we say with fair certitude that Logan is mafia?

I don't think so. I think we're just spinning our wheels here.

I'd like to believe as light leak has stated... that the tie indicates that logan is the mafia... but the push for ES was largely done by the members i trust most. So either my reads are way off, or it's just a choice between two relatively even candidates.

Noir
01-08-2014, 02:37 AM
^
So then it would make sense for mafia to try to end things with a tie, if one of them was at risk for being lynched.

This doesn't make any sense. A tie would only be in the Mafia's favor if both Logan and Sage were Mafia. Otherwise why not just nudge the vote toward the Townie?

P-O
01-08-2014, 02:38 AM
Otherwise why not just nudge the vote toward the Townie?

Because we still want to kill the towny.

Madrigal
01-08-2014, 02:39 AM
Hey, isn't it kind of weird that the most suspected people are voting for Ethereal? Logan, Randall, Dirac, Works... Not that I personally believe they're mafia, but I'm really having second doubts on this one.

If Ethereal turns out to be townie, his lynchers will all be suspect. I don't think the mafia would put more than one person behind a townie in a three-way split if there are three mafia. If there are four, they would be wise to make the fourth mafia accuse a new person instead of piling on a townie vote. So when would there be two mafia behind a mafia? Like I said, maybe the mafia has special roles and they're cannibalizing the least valuable one. All this assuming the optimistic scenario that we're actually onto something.

Madrigal
01-08-2014, 02:50 AM
Madrigal, why are you voting Etherealsage and not Logan?

I'm voting for Etherealsage because I don't agree with anything he says. Surprisingly enough, that's not happening to me very much with other players. I already suspected him when he didn't play the Amusement Park game, and when he wasn't showing up to post much. He also made superficial analyses of the players and then claimed he skipped a day's reading. Not much to go on, I admt. Then he popped up just before Oso was killed to juxtapose me and Oso in Oso's defense. I suspect Oso was killed for a specific reason, not a random one, and I'm compelled to think Etherealsage tried to cover his back with that post in a moment when suspicions were rising against him.

Yep, I might be wrong, and I don't suspect Logan much less. But Logan is always going to be suspicious. Etherealsage might bounce back. Worst of all, I still won't agree with anything he says.

Noir
01-08-2014, 03:19 AM
Noir also starts suggesting that the special character is serial killer instead of a vigilante because Kyuri had said that it was a day phase kill. I'm not sure where Noir got the info that the vigilante can only act during the night, and not during the day. Can anyone else confirm if this is true or not? I still think there is the possibility that we have a vigilante and I don't see why a vigilante couldn't act during the day. I guess I thought it depended on who was running the game. Anyway, to me this looks like a possible mafia scare tactic, especially since a discussion had been going on about whether it was better for a vigilante should act now or later.

That was a legitimate observation. We all jumped on the idea that the killer was a vigilante (myself included), but without any real evidence to back it up. The way I see it though, it doesn't really matter if we're dealing with a Vigilante or a Serial Killer though, as they are effectively the same thing. The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Both have the same ability, they just have different goals. Obviously we'd prefer to be dealing with a Vigilante, as he could be at least with, but both are essentially shooting blind, so the chances of them hitting a Mafioso or a Townie are about the same, regardless of their intentions.

Noir
01-08-2014, 03:23 AM
****Obviously we'd prefer to be dealing with a Vigilante, as he could at least be reasoned with, but both are essentially shooting blind, so the chances of them hitting either a Mafioso or a Townie are about the same, regardless of their intentions.

Blorg
01-08-2014, 03:41 AM
since we don't have much time left (I think-- I lost track of the schedule) I'm going back to voting for Logan.

I just don't see as much evidence for EtherealSage. Not enough people have defended him, and he's been attacked a lot for mostly "vibe" issues, or that's what it seems like.

JollyBard
01-08-2014, 03:42 AM
since we don't have much time left (I think-- I lost track of the schedule) I'm going back to voting for Logan.

I just don't see as much evidence for EtherealSage. Not enough people have defended him, and he's been attacked a lot for mostly "vibe" issues, or that's what it seems like.

THANK YOU. I'm going back, too.

EtherealSage, for clarity.

Madrigal
01-08-2014, 03:54 AM
since we don't have much time left (I think-- I lost track of the schedule) I'm going back to voting for Logan.

I just don't see as much evidence for EtherealSage. Not enough people have defended him, and he's been attacked a lot for mostly "vibe" issues, or that's what it seems like.

Okay, but this doesn't resolve the problem of the tie. We need two of the least suspect players to take one for the team and switch to the same person. I will do that myself if I have to, even though I'd hate for Etherealsage to be off the hook. If Logan turns out to be mafia, he may well be.

JollyBard
01-08-2014, 03:56 AM
Oh, I miscounted the votes, I thought I could switch without making a tie. Welp.

JollyBard
01-08-2014, 03:58 AM
Uhhh I shouldn't post when I'm slightly drunk, I really turn into a retard. I wanted to switch to Logan but wrote EtherealSage instead.

Anyway: LowIQLogan

I will hereby stop posting

Works
01-08-2014, 03:58 AM
THANK YOU. I'm going back, too.

EtherealSage, for clarity.


Oh, I miscounted the votes, I thought I could switch without making a tie. Welp.

Wait, who are you voting for now? Can you give an updated tally?

JollyBard
01-08-2014, 04:00 AM
EtherealSage
Works
Madrigal
Randall
LowIQLogan
Dirac


LowIQLogan
P-O
Light Leak
Hephaestus
Chobani
JollyBard

Works
Noir
mccrissanth
Etherealsage

here you go.
i have no idea what I'm doing

Light Leak
01-08-2014, 04:00 AM
This doesn't make any sense. A tie would only be in the Mafia's favor if both Logan and Sage were Mafia. Otherwise why not just nudge the vote toward the Townie?

It makes sense to me. Logan was ahead in the tally by one vote - let's pretend he's mafia for now. Another mafioso places a vote for the person who is one vote behind (Etherealsage) and now things are tied. If the round results in a tie no one is lynched. So sure, they don't get a townie lynched but the townies also don't get to kill a mafioso. They have another round to try to sway votes towards a townie.

Works
01-08-2014, 04:01 AM
Nm, I think this is it. Which brings us back to a tie.

EtherealSage
Works
Madrigal
Randall
LowIQLogan
Dirac

LowIQLogan
P-O
Light Leak
Hephaestus
Chobani
Jollybard

Works
Noir
mccrissanth
Etherealsage

P-O
01-08-2014, 04:04 AM
What's the current tally?
Isn't ES ahead by 1?

Noir
01-08-2014, 04:04 AM
It makes sense to me. Logan was ahead in the tally by one vote - let's pretend he's mafia for now. Another mafioso places a vote for the person who is one vote behind (Etherealsage) and now things are tied. If the round results in a tie no one is lynched. So sure, they don't get a townie lynched but the townies also don't get to kill a mafioso. They have another round to try to sway votes towards a townie.

Oh. Yeah, that makes sense. But ideally, as you've said, the Mafia would still kill a Townie this cycle.

Blorg
01-08-2014, 04:06 AM
Okay, but this doesn't resolve the problem of the tie. We need two of the least suspect players to take one for the team and switch to the same person. I will do that myself if I have to, even though I'd hate for Etherealsage to be off the hook. If Logan turns out to be mafia, he may well be.

He may well be a townie.

If we kill LowIQLogan and he's mafia, we can look at all of the people who tried to lead us away from voting for him.
If we kill LowIQLogan and he's innocent, we can either vote for EtherealSage or analyze/suspect the people who voted for him.

similar situation for EtherealSage.

However this turn ends up, our next turn will be productive.



I wish some of the Works voters would think about the tie situation.

P-O
01-08-2014, 04:06 AM
Jolly bard is mafia
i'm switching to
EtherialSage

JollyBard
01-08-2014, 04:07 AM
I propose a kind of tie-breaker: a vote between only Logan and ES, if it really ends in a tie.

P-O
01-08-2014, 04:07 AM
EtherealSage
Works
Madrigal
Randall
LowIQLogan
Dirac
P-O

LowIQLogan
Light Leak
Hephaestus
Chobani
Jollybard

Works
Noir
mccrissanth
Etherealsage

Noir
01-08-2014, 04:11 AM
I propose a kind of tie-breaker: a vote between only Logan and ES, if it really ends in a tie.

P-0 already switched, so we're good. Go drink some water

Light Leak
01-08-2014, 04:11 AM
Oh. Yeah, that makes sense. But ideally, as you've said, the Mafia would still kill a Townie this cycle.

Right, mafia would still kill a townie.

Noir
01-08-2014, 04:12 AM
Tonight they would, yes. I think we're in agreement here, one of us should stop talking. I vote me.

JollyBard
01-08-2014, 04:13 AM
Jolly bard is mafia

I wish. Unfortunately I'm just bad with alcohol.

Works
01-08-2014, 04:15 AM
Ok, anyone else think that it's weird that Ethereal isn't changing his vote to Logan? I want to think that he has some Mafia balls of steel, but he's really close to being lynched. I get it, he's claiming I'm Mafia and voting in that direction may have just been his way of trying to get some momentum going, but this late in the day, life and death are both really close

My conclusions:

He's a townie and he really thinks I'm Mafia and hopes his death proves it.
He's mafia and he's hoping we flub this, talk about it too much and kill logan or tie it which is a null.

It's giving me some anxiety in these final minutes.

Noir
01-08-2014, 04:15 AM
I wish. Unfortunately I'm just bad with alcohol.

What's your poison?

Light Leak
01-08-2014, 04:17 AM
You seem like a reasonable player and this is one of your few less administrative posts. Don't get me wrong, I get that the administrative thing only favors townies - it provides clarity and that's not in the mafia's interests. But here I think you might be grasping at straws.

It's possible that I'm grasping at straws, but the timing of it all seemed suspicious to me. May as well point out a possible scenario that I see.

Madrigal
01-08-2014, 04:18 AM
Ok, anyone else think that it's weird that Ethereal isn't changing his vote to Logan? I want to think that he has some Mafia balls of steel, but he's really close to being lynched. I get it, he's claiming I'm Mafia and voting in that direction may have just been his way of trying to get some momentum going, but this late in the day, life and death are both really close

My conclusions:

He's a townie and he really thinks I'm Mafia and hopes his death proves it.
He's mafia and he's hoping we flub this, talk about it too much and kill logan or tie it which is a null.


Or they are both mafia.

Noir
01-08-2014, 04:21 AM
Ok, anyone else think that it's weird that Ethereal isn't changing his vote to Logan? I want to think that he has some Mafia balls of steel, but he's really close to being lynched. I get it, he's claiming I'm Mafia and voting in that direction may have just been his way of trying to get some momentum going, but this late in the day, life and death are both really close

My conclusions:

He's a townie and he really thinks I'm Mafia and hopes his death proves it.
He's mafia and he's hoping we flub this, talk about it too much and kill logan or tie it which is a null.

It's giving me some anxiety in these final minutes.

Sage hasn't been online since 2am Central time. It's been 20 hours, he probably just has no idea what's happening.

JollyBard
01-08-2014, 04:21 AM
What's your poison?

Leffe Brown. I didn't even finish it and felt drunk; turns out I was hungry. I'm fine now :lol: Good beer, anyway.

Works, maybe ES isn't changing his vote because it would seem suspicious, and you're saying that because you're mafia and want to defend him.

Works
01-08-2014, 04:23 AM
Or they are both mafia.

Ok, that makes sense, and hopefully that's how this scenario rolls out. I'm hoping we caught them unaware and team Mafia is just trying to salvage the best of a bad situation.

P-O
01-08-2014, 04:26 AM
If it's too risky to leave only a 1 person buffer between the tie and the lynching, then works and madrigal let's all three switch to logan.

At this point, even if ES ties it up, it's self preservation and not necessarily mafia .

Light Leak
01-08-2014, 04:27 AM
I can also switch to Etherealsage, if you think we need more of a buffer. I'd prefer things not to end on a tie.

P-O
01-08-2014, 04:28 AM
then do it light leak

Light Leak
01-08-2014, 04:30 AM
I'm switching to Etherealsage.

EtherealSage
Works
Madrigal
Randall
LowIQLogan
Dirac
P-O
Light Leak

LowIQLogan
Hephaestus
Chobani
Jollybard

Works
Noir
mccrissanth
Etherealsage

Noir
01-08-2014, 04:31 AM
Leffe Brown. I didn't even finish it and felt drunk; turns out I was hungry. I'm fine now :lol: Good beer, anyway.

Works, maybe ES isn't changing his vote because it would seem suspicious, and you're saying that because you're mafia and want to defend him.

I'll have to try that one. How is it suspicious to want to save your own ass?

Madrigal
01-08-2014, 04:31 AM
I also said I can switch, but let's please agree who's switching before we bold our new votes.

P-O
01-08-2014, 04:34 AM
it's fine now

Works
01-08-2014, 04:35 AM
Leffe Brown. I didn't even finish it and felt drunk; turns out I was hungry. I'm fine now :lol: Good beer, anyway.

Works, maybe ES isn't changing his vote because it would seem suspicious, and you're saying that because you're mafia and want to defend him.


If it's too risky to leave only a 1 person buffer between the tie and the lynching, then works and madrigal let's all three switch to logan.

At this point, even if ES ties it up, it's self preservation and not necessarily mafia .

I'm not really sure we should be following the the voting lead of someone who keeps throwing the vote into limbo and implying that I'm Mafia.

Unless Jolly just wants to throw Logan under the bus and that's why he switched.

Noir
01-08-2014, 04:36 AM
it's fine now

Yup. Even if an entire group dog-piled it still wouldn't tie.

JollyBard
01-08-2014, 04:45 AM
I'm not really sure we should be following the the voting lead of someone who keeps throwing the vote into limbo and implying that I'm Mafia.

Unless Jolly just wants to throw Logan under the bus and that's why he switched.

I really don't think ES is mafia and would rather we lynch Logan. That's my reason. But as long as we do lynch someone, it's fine with me.

But seriously, almost all the people I find most suspicious are voting for ES, and I'm not okay with that.

P-O
01-08-2014, 04:47 AM
By the way, i made a thread where you can all post your short lists. Please do that if you will.

Light Leak
01-08-2014, 04:48 AM
My list will likely change depending on what happens after this round.

Noir
01-08-2014, 04:50 AM
My list will likely change depending on what happens after this round.

My thoughts exactly.

P-O
01-08-2014, 04:51 AM
all the same, seeing the change as a matter of record is good. so let's all go post our list in there.

Noir
01-08-2014, 04:52 AM
Lol now Logan shows up. Post damn you!

Etherealsage
01-08-2014, 06:15 AM
Hah, a lot of people (Logan) are going to lynch me on flimsy logic. Honestly, looking at how things developed, there's simply no point in changing my vote, even if I wanted to.

Madrigal
01-08-2014, 06:32 AM
Etherealsage, I was kind of hoping you'd give us something more to think about.

Etherealsage
01-08-2014, 06:50 AM
Etherealsage, I was kind of hoping you'd give us something more to think about.
Sorry, no.

Rather though, I do have some insights on the supposed serial killer before I go down. Something for y'all to think about with him or her is that this person won't have the information about the mafia, so they will be a perfect townie, adding an extra dimension of paranoia. That creates a bit of a problem since there is no suspicious behavior, unlike the mafia. What I'm really curious about. So how do we go about flushing out the serial killer, exactly? This person benefits the greatest from the townies not being paranoid at all and calmly pursuing the mafia, because then they have a low risk of being lynched so long as they are a voice of reason. Granted, he can always be one of the quieter ones. But it's something to think about.

As for the dogpile on me, there's not much to say. I've been playing sloppily 'cause I get home late from work and am tired, and that got me heat. LowIQLogan, posted some extremely strange reasoning for pursuing me. I could switch to him, point that out, and try to get people to switch, but if he's innocent, then it's right back to me when I really suspect Works because of his strange, dogged pursuit of me from day 1. Me playing sloppily simply handed him justification. Everyone else except Logan merely voted for me based on your and Works' arguments, which makes sense given inconsistencies.

Etherealsage
01-08-2014, 06:51 AM
What I'm really curious about. So how do we go about flushing out the serial killer, exactly?

Ew, I wish I could edit this grammatical error. (I don't proofread before posting.)

P-O
01-08-2014, 07:18 AM
post your suspect list if you have any

Etherealsage
01-08-2014, 07:53 AM
Alright, this was Works' first post where he was actually playing the game:


I'm a townie. I say we keep Madrigal alive and kill Etherealsage. Let Madrigal play a little bit. If anything, it's entertaining. For the first vote, it's entirely random but we know a little bit about people from past games. If Etherealsage is a townie, he might be helpful in deducing the Mafia, but it's going to be hard to trust him.

Etherealsage
01-08-2014, 07:55 AM
I'm already a target in his eyes. By contrast, maddy only switched to me after I made errors that may have come across as deceptive. As such, I think she is innocent. Logan switched to me posting self-contradictory logic, and that is extremely suspicious. (I'm going to multipost. I would rather edit, but yeah.)

Etherealsage
01-08-2014, 08:06 AM
I'm not going to defend not posting other than I just didn't feel like it and I never feel like I have anything to say anyways. I'm sure if any of you super nerds want to go look up the other games I've been in you can see my posts are always back heavy in these games, although I shouldn't use that as an excuse because it is extreme in this game as this will be my second post. And I just lied because I am going to defend myself.
Okay, what?


Which isn't much, because I would def be voting for myself right now if I wasn't the only townie I knew.
And yet, you vote for me in the end to save yourself when you're admittedly the most suspicious to yourself.


This makes me very suspicious of otherwise 'smart' players who are not voting for me. Namely Madrigal who is always adamant about killing nonvocal members (why is she voting for the second least vocal member?)
Okay, so you're suspicious of her, yet side with her. Cool.


EtherealSage who has just said he doesn't want to vote for me in order to save himself. Instead I think he has voted for someone else in an attempt to make the votes more of a townie vs townie situation.
That doesn't add up. The only way I could prove my innocence is not to lynch someone I previously thought was a townie (ie, you) to save my own ass, but to try and get people to trust me enough to give me one shot. That wouldn't be you. Well, now I'm suspicious of you, but still. I previously chose not to go pursue people who voted for me because it was understandable, but what's the best way to make me ineffective? Discredit me, THEN kill me.


-Based on past games of mafia I have played I think early turn votes are usually influenced by mafia to make the plurality between townie and townie so that the rest of the townies feel like they have to choose one of these people for their vote to matter.
Past games where I was mafia, we actually didn't do much of anything at the start. This game is either the exception, or we're going to town on each other.



My suspect list is EtherealSage and Madrigal right now for reasons I have mentioned. Of course I realize this is contradictory because Madrigal is voting for ES right now and he has a very real chance of getting lynched
This makes that a bad theory. And maddy has been rather methodical about who she picks. One can argue that either makes her more suspicious or less. But I'm more inclined to trust her right now given that she is one of the more logical townies.


But I guess keeping to my original strategy I will vote for EtherealSage because I am a hypocrite.
Shame on you. You're just saving your own ass. I have no idea how you deflected so much suspicion with this.

Etherealsage
01-08-2014, 08:14 AM
I don't agree with this kind of reasoning especially early on. IMO the mafia will try to separate themselves from each other so if one does get caught they don't get caught together. There really is no point for mafia to organize votes together this early on because its so easy to just piggie back on townie paranoia and bad guessing.

Also this is pretty strange also.



But I'm willing to believe you don't realize how dumb it is to say that because you're ISFP.

All this being said I am ok with voting for MD5 because I am a hypocrite and people who don't play are boring.
Same behavior on day 1. All you did was do just enough to deflect, and some how no one has gotten suspicious of you for it.

P-O
01-08-2014, 08:19 AM
Honestly i'm not sure why the vote to kill you was so popular. I still think logan was the right choice. Honestly, if you had voted for him earlier, we'd probably be killing him right now. So i'm not sure what to tell you. It was a dumb move for you to vote for works.

Etherealsage
01-08-2014, 08:26 AM
This is something that stuck with me before Polemarch died:

I don't agree. I think we should always try to lynch someone, especially in the beginning of the game. Here's why.

1) We know that our probability of getting lucky and killing a mafia member is low...but if we're successful, the odds of victory go up dramatically. Based on past games of this size, assume there's 3 mafia, 4 at most. Reducing that number by one is golden. On the other hand, if we accidentally kill a fellow townie, it doesn't hurt us nearly as much.

But even if we don't try to kill someone, the mafia will have a 100% (barring any special townie powers that could exist) chance of killing one of us. The only bad play is to holster the gun.

2) The threat of a lynching, particularly of quiet players, forces everyone to participate and post. The easiest path to a townie loss / mafia win is to allow people to silently lurk. This is a game of information.

I'm just not in favor of picking someone out of the air to kill. For all I know, Madrigal actually IS mafia - I just don't have enough information yet to believe its her. I'd rather vote for someone who doesn't say a word, because either they're hiding out of fear of saying the wrong thing, or they're a boring non-participant.

We still have 42 hours to decide, so I'm not voting for anyone until the deadline gets closer.
After he died, being quiet became less of an issue. A serial killer could play the part of a townie and more or less stay alive as long as everyone was focused on certain guidelines. Now, if we eliminate the pressure to contribute meaningfully (and killing Polemarch seems to be in that direction), maybe the serial killer wants to sit back and wait until there are less people before playing his hand. So I suspect LowIQ not of being mafia, but of possibly being the serial killer.

P-O
01-08-2014, 08:29 AM
what time does night fall anyway?

Etherealsage
01-08-2014, 08:30 AM
Honestly i'm not sure why the vote to kill you was so popular. I still think logan was the right choice. Honestly, if you had voted for him earlier, we'd probably be killing him right now. So i'm not sure what to tell you. It was a dumb move for you to vote for works.
Because I wanted the gamble. If I voted for LowIQLogan, and he was a townie, all the heat would be on me next round between Works and Maddie pushing for me, and me having some serious inaccuracies in my skims. If I voted for Works, there was a chance he was mafia, and the results would clear my name, and since I'm currently a low risk proposition, I think there's a good chance some mafia are against me. Maddie is not as likely as works, as maddie was not originally against me and wouldn't have been against me had I not messed up in my assessment of Oso (this is the big thing that got me more than works on me). But if you look at what STARTED the pile, it was Works.

Etherealsage
01-08-2014, 08:31 AM
No idea, but I'm using my remaining time to put what is actually in my head on the board.

Etherealsage
01-08-2014, 08:37 AM
Also something that stuck with me (and caused my assessment of Oso):


Don't be a fool.

As Townies the game isn't about whether you as an individual live or die, it's about whether or not the team ultimately emerges victorious over the Mafia. If you vote irrationally because chobani wants to kill you, then you are making yourself a liability against the team.

Now it's possible she IS Mafia, but there's not much evidence to go on one way or the other unless you get whacked and we find out whether or not you're innocent.

The important issue on the table as I see it is who we should whack among the inactive players. That's actually a very good suggestion.
This is why I didn't try very hard to save myself earlier, because if the townies win, I win, and I find it both irritating and strange that LowIQLogan offered no insight on his impending doom, he simply tried to save himself and wrote contradictory logic in doing so. I still think he's the serial killer, though with everyone offline, it's more important that I get this out than try and change any votes. I guess if enough people change votes to him, I would also (though I should really sleep soon).

P-O
01-08-2014, 08:42 AM
Works isn't going to be lynched today.

P-O
01-08-2014, 08:44 AM
if you know you're a towny, it's your duty to do everything you can to ensure that we lynch people who aren't townies. It's insanity to accept being lynched no matter which side you're playing on.

Etherealsage
01-08-2014, 08:44 AM
Works isn't going to be lynched today.
Well, fair enough. LowIQLogan it is.

EtherealSage
Works
Madrigal
Randall
LowIQLogan
Dirac
P-O
Light Leak

LowIQLogan
Hephaestus
Chobani
Jollybard
Etherealsage

Works
Noir
mccrissanth

Not to say whether I should or shouldn't get hanged, but I offer far more than LowIQ, one way or the other.

Etherealsage
01-08-2014, 08:46 AM
if you know you're a towny, it's your duty to do everything you can to ensure that we lynch people who aren't townies. It's insanity to accept being lynched no matter which side you're playing on.
Not entirely true. If you accept being lynched, and you come up townie, that's valuable insight to your contributions so far.

Etherealsage
01-08-2014, 08:51 AM
Anyway, back on the analysis:


When we first started playing this game, I had in the back of my mind players who the good Mafia players are. You, Madi, Oso, and Polemarch came up immediately. Then I noticed who wasn't speaking, you. As I said before, you haven't been contributing to the analysis of the game and your most recent "analysis" is shallow at best. I'm more suspicious of you after this most recent post. You claim to have just skimmed day 2, but I don't believe that. You're admitting to sloppy play by saying that, which goes against your reputation so it just doesn't fit with your role as a supposed townie.
Here's the biggest inconsistency:

Logic says I'm one of the best mafia players because I'm extremely analytical and excellent at conveying this analysis. I have only ever been on mafia side. I have said that I've been playing badly because I don't have the time (I'm going to be tired tomorrow just for today), and this plays against my reputation as how I play as mafia. Therefore I'm your biggest suspect as a mafia side player because I'm not living up to your expectations as a mafia player? What the shit is this? Manipulation and information analysis are two different skills, and information analysis takes considerably more time (demonstrated by how long I've been posting since I started now), time I've repeatedly stated I don't have.

Etherealsage
01-08-2014, 08:57 AM
Etherealsage is tops on my list. He's not really punching back. Instead he's just ducking and taking the blows. As of right now, I'm voting for him.
Is this better?

Kyuri
01-08-2014, 08:57 AM
Day ends right now. Please hold while I check votes.

Etherealsage
01-08-2014, 09:03 AM
Just a thought - if Etherealsage were mafia, maybe he wouldn't be this sloppy. However, if he is a mafia with passive team mates that aren't helping, maybe he's outside his comfort zone. I don't think he was a very talkative mafia in the past.
Maddie, you were my mafia, so you know how I play at my best. I make bold decisions and don't back down when things only *look* bad. When we played, I lacked sloppiness because of the amount of time I put in, how much time I spent quoting specific things to illustrate my points, and how much time I spent crafting my own points. Today I'm actually putting that much time in. But I was actually a very talkative mafioso. I spent a lot of time getting specific trusted townies to trust me so that they'd do the arguing for me. None of that this time around. Take that as you will.