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Kyuri
01-08-2014, 05:36 PM
Day Three has begun! Day and Night phases will proceed as previously (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?320-Anime-Mafia-Day-2&p=5834&viewfull=1#post5834).

P-O has been killed during the Night. She was the town jailer. Every Night, the jailer can put someone other than themselves in jail, preventing the person from using her powers and anyone else using powers on her.

Live list:

Osito Polar vanilla townie
Madrigal
Hephaestus
md5fungi vanilla townie
mccrissanth
Randall
Polemarch vanilla townie
Dirac
Light Leak
JollyBard
chobani
Noir
LowIQLogan
Works
P-O town jailer
Etherealsage mafia

Madrigal
01-08-2014, 05:40 PM
In other words, the doctor.

Kyuri
01-08-2014, 05:42 PM
In other words, the doctor.

Yes, but not quite. The jailer also prevents the target from using their powers.

JollyBard
01-08-2014, 05:45 PM
I'm voting Logan.

Madrigal
01-08-2014, 06:04 PM
I just realized something. Someone in the mafia is smart. Shit. How did they figure this out?

Osito Polar
01-08-2014, 06:13 PM
Madrigal looked at her smartphone and frowned.

"I have no bars. I'm not even getting a connection from the goddamned edge network."

"Do you have Verizon?" asked P-O.

"Yeah. Verizon. They're like a passive male lover that gives you nothing but disappointment, lame excuses, bad sex and bullshit."

"Hey, don't start on that rant again. Weren't you getting better reception back that way?" asked Hephaestus.

Madrigal walked in a semi-circle, waving her phone around trying to see if there was a magical position she could stand in where she'd be graced with bars by the cell phone gods.

Yuno cleaned her axe with a rag she'd ripped from Polemarch's skirt.

"There's a clear solution to this problem. We need to make another sacrifice!" she explained.

"Dang. Another one?" asked LowIQLogan "This is getting excessive."

"Not it!" said chobani.

"No, we're not going with 'Not it' this time. We're gonna do this logically." said Hephaestus.

"Yeah, someone here killed Osito Polar and they need to pay! We should figure it out, then whack that sumbitch." Light Leak produced a brown Sherlock Holmes hat seemingly out of the ether, and a magnifying glass that she peered through, studying the faces of her companions.

Randall said "Wait a second. Etherealsage, what is that in your pocket?"

Etherealsage shrugged. "Oh nothing."

"Wait, yeah it is. You didn't have that before. What is it, and where did you get it?"

Dirac chimed in "Look, something weird in her pocket? I think we should sacrifice Etherealsage."

Yuno took a few gleeful practice waves with her axe.

"What the hell? This is what passes for due process here? Look, it's just something in my pocket! You people are crazy!" Etherealsage started running.

The blank anime landscape provided nowhere to escape. Etherealsage ran and ran, but never got very far away. Eventually, she bent over out of breath and the group strode over to her.

"Okay, what's in the pocket?" asked JollyBard.

"Fine! You people are monsters." Etherealsage reached into her pocket and threw down a wallet.

Light Leak picked it up and looked in the side pocket. "This is Osito Polar's wallet! Hmm. He still has a Connecticut driver's license even though he'd been living in California for kind of a long time. Tsk, tsk. That's very irresponsible."

"Umm ... so if I hypothetically might have murdered him, but he was irresponsible ... does that mean you're gonna let me go?" asked Etherealsage.

"Not a fucking chance." said Dirac.

Yuno plugged the axe into Madrigal's phone and cleanly decapitated Etherealsage with a single whack.

Etherealsage was a mafia. Good work, Townies.

Mafia kill announcement coming soon!

Noir
01-08-2014, 06:17 PM
Heph gave a pretty in-depth analysis of P-O recently. Maybe the Mafia hoped they could knock out P-O as a threat, and then implicate Heph in the fallout?

JollyBard
01-08-2014, 06:23 PM
I just realized something. Someone in the mafia is smart. Shit. How did they figure this out?

There's no way to know they actually figured this out, it might have been pure luck. They obviously killed P-O for a reason, though... but why?

He didn't say much, and he didn't take much chances. Most of the time, he was aggressif, mostly asking people for their opinions, their reasons, etc. Difficult to read. Slightly suspicious. Some townies already suspected him.

Let's try to see how the mafia came to killing P-O:

The most talkative members are, in order: P-O, Madrigal and Light Leak. Well, killing the most talkative player doesn't sound like such a bad idea... although, if I recall correctly, P-O didn't offer much analysis, and mostly asked questions or made little comments. He didn't really offer much in his own personal reasons, and pretty much only tried to break the tie (especially at the end, anyway). His suspect list wasn't particularly different from other people's.

Shit. They picked the perfect one to kill. There's just nothing to analyse.

JollyBard
01-08-2014, 06:29 PM
Oh man, now we totally have to check out Etherealsage's previous posts.


I think P-O is almost certainly Townie. Voting for him is a mistake, as he's been one of the voices of reason throughout the game.

What does this mean? Did they already know they would kill P-O?


I said before Works is my number 1 suspicion.

We can say that Works is definitely a townie, then. Sorry, bro!

[QUOTE=Etherealsage;6273]I have no intention of voting LowIQLogan to keep myself safe.

This really strikes me as a way to subtly defend Logan. He's definitely mafia, maybe even the Godfather.

Madrigal
01-08-2014, 06:44 PM
LowIQLogan

On the basis of this last post:

http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?320-Anime-Mafia-Day-2&p=6665&viewfull=1#post6665

Dirac
01-08-2014, 06:53 PM
So, how the hell should we interpret Etherealsage's last posts? Surely he didn't think he'd get enough change that last minute? So what was all the works hate for? I can't figure out if it's that he knew he was about to die and be revealed, so accusing works would actually CLEAR works, or if he is straightforwardly trying to influence us to vote against Works.

JollyBard
01-08-2014, 06:57 PM
So, how the hell should we interpret Etherealsage's last posts? Surely he didn't think he'd get enough change that last minute? So what was all the works hate for? I can't figure out if it's that he knew he was about to die and be revealed, so accusing works would actually CLEAR works, or if he is straightforwardly trying to influence us to vote against Works.

As I showed, he voted against Works in the beginning of the last day, so unless he knew he was going to die and wanted to throw us off-course (which would be a bit too awesome), I believe he was just trying to save himself at the last minute. Why not? If he had done nothing, he would have died anyway, so he might as well try!

Noir
01-08-2014, 07:07 PM
^JollyBard has been rubbing me the wrong way for a while now.

First off let me just say that I was wrong to accuse Works. But I was also the first to do so, and I did so very loudly. Bearing in mind that ES is Mafia, let's re-examine the voting record. Here's a list Light leak posted after I first accused Works:


I'm going with LowIQLogan for now. Either way he's not helping at all, and Heph's post has reminded me of the whole Neville situation last game. May as well get it over with I guess. I can't tell if Dirac has voted or not this round since his latest post had two bolded names.

EtherealSage
Works
Madrigal
Randall

LowIQLogan
P-O
Hephaestus
chobani
JollyBard
Light Leak

Works
Noir

Works, Maddy, and Randall voted for ES right off the bat. I think that speaks strongly in their favor. Let's say for arguments sake that Logan is the scapegoat in this scenario. The Mafia could very easily vote for Logan at this point since a "run-off" seemed to be how things were going to go. Then, after my nomination of Works sits for awhile, what happens?


I said before Works is my number 1 suspicion. I have no intention of voting LowIQLogan to keep myself safe.

EtherealSage
Works
Madrigal
Randall

LowIQLogan
P-O
chobani
JollyBard
Light Leak

Works
Noir
mccrissanth
Etherealsage

P-O
Hephaestus

I think P-O is almost certainly Townie. Voting for him is a mistake, as he's been one of the voices of reason throughout the game. LowIQ is essentially a non-player right now, though, food for thought: His last activity was 27 minutes ago viewing this thread, and he hasn't said anything.

Heph posts another candidate in P-O, and mccrissanth and ES jump on the Works ballot. ES is mafia, but didn't vote for Logan. Wtf? Why not? mccrissanth offers a rationalization though, largely in-tune with what I've been saying,


I don't know about you but this is a psychological game not a 'burn them all' RPG game. Everyone is a suspect, everyone's in their defenses. I see no deeper reason in voting the quieter players other the boring side of the game. But come to think of it, if I were a mafia, the first thing for me to do is to blend in. And that is, I engage in the discussion more, even attempt at pointing fingers and outing players. Sequentially, this will stir up paranoia among townies killing the less active players who for all we know are trying to observe from a distance. Another thing is the 'flailing noob'. Gee, noob or not, mafia is mafia. Why are we more forgiving with the noobs? Lastly, the 'townie trait". Fuck that shit, anyone can be paranoid. Anyone can act innocent. Even a mafia can pull a townie card.

Logan throws in a vote for EtherealSage. Again wtf? Why would Logan vote against ES, but not ES against Logan? Jollybard posts this:


Etherealsage really gives off a mafia vibe. I can't really pinpoint why exactly, but the fact that he's defending P-O, who feels equally mafia to me, is kind of suspicious.

chobani and Jollybard both flip-flop for awhile, but finally come down on Team Logan. Here is the final list (I think):


EtherealSage
Works
Madrigal
Randall
LowIQLogan
Dirac
P-O

LowIQLogan
Light Leak
Hephaestus
Chobani
Jollybard

Works
Noir
mccrissanth
Etherealsage

I strongly suspect the noobs right now. I think either Jollybard or chobani is Mafia. Since my list was a kind of opt-out, I now suspect mccrissanth as well, even if I agree with her reasoning.

Madrigal
01-08-2014, 07:07 PM
So, how the hell should we interpret Etherealsage's last posts?

I didn't even read them. And probably won't bother.

JollyBard
01-08-2014, 07:14 PM
I strongly suspect the noobs right now. I think either Jollybard or chobani is Mafia. Since my list was a kind of opt-out, I now suspect mccrissanth as well, even if I agree with her reasoning.

Considering it's our first time playing this game -- well, I played once or twice irl -- I think it's safe to say it's much more likely and simple to assume we're just retards. I'm flattered you think I'm brilliant enough to take a noob act, though.

If I ever get to be mafia, I'm totally making all of my posts drunk. Though I shouldn't say that.

I'm not suspecting chobani. And frankly, I don't really care about other suspects, not for this day, I just want us to lynch Logan and get it over with.

Noir
01-08-2014, 07:20 PM
Apologies. Light Leak hopped over to the ES ballot for plurality, and ES finally switched to Logan (though neither move is very significant imo).

Dirac
01-08-2014, 07:42 PM
As I showed, he voted against Works in the beginning of the last day, so unless he knew he was going to die and wanted to throw us off-course (which would be a bit too awesome), I believe he was just trying to save himself at the last minute. Why not? If he had done nothing, he would have died anyway, so he might as well try!

It seems to me like Works is pretty in the clear now because of this. ES made a post (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?320-Anime-Mafia-Day-2&p=6603&viewfull=1#post6603) fairly last minute criticizing Logan which I'm having trouble understanding. Let's look at both possible situations: Logan == mafia and Logan != mafia.

Logan == mafia
ES made this post to try and put distance between himself and Logan. He did this because he knew there was a very high probability that he (ES) would be lynched that night. He didn't actually want to convince anyone though and that is why it was a solitary post which he followed up with Works-bashing. Assuming Works is townie (which I think is probably a pretty good assumption now) this strategy would make a lot of sense for a mafioso.

Logan != mafia
Why did ES make his case so strongly against Works? Logan was second in the votes and you'd think he pile all his pressure into trying to get people to switch to him - I even think there were people voting for ES who would have preferred to vote for Logan so it probably wouldn't have been that hard to switch a few minds. The only way I can get this to make sense is if it was an elaborate ploy which predicted this kind of analysis, with the intention of throwing Logan under the bus after ES's inevitable death. That does seem too tricksy to be plausible but hell, people are talking about ES as some kind of mafia-savant. Not in this game though it seems.

On balance I think it is likely that Logan is also mafia so:

LowIQLogan

Dirac
01-08-2014, 07:44 PM
Apologies. Light Leak hopped over to the ES ballot for plurality, and ES finally switched to Logan (though neither move is very significant imo).
I think ES switching to logan might be significant in that it could be a feeble attempt to shield logan.

Madrigal
01-08-2014, 07:53 PM
I would like to add that if Oso pointed to Logan before he died, and Logan is the godfather, I'd probably kill Oso too if I were mafia. Lynching Oso's suspect seems too easy, and they may have relied on the accusation fading into obscurity.

Randall
01-08-2014, 08:05 PM
Works, Maddy, and Randall voted for ES right off the bat. I think that speaks strongly in their favor.

Agreed. Works and Madrigal, who are your top suspects now?

Madrigal
01-08-2014, 08:06 PM
I strongly suspect the noobs right now. I think either Jollybard or chobani is Mafia.

I think you're wasting your time.

Inconsistency + thinking aloud = probable townie

Inconsistency + measured responses = probable mafia

If these two are not both townies, I'll eat my beret.

Dirac
01-08-2014, 08:07 PM
I would like to add that if Oso pointed to Logan before he died, and Logan is the godfather, I'd probably kill Oso too if I were mafia. Lynching Oso's suspect seems too easy, and they may have relied on the accusation fading into obscurity.

I'm not sure if your "if" was intended or not but I'm pretty sure Oso was the first person to point at logan. (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?293-Cute-cuddly-anime-girls-Mafia-yay&p=5299&viewfull=1#post5299) I think.

Madrigal
01-08-2014, 08:10 PM
Agreed. Works and Madrigal, who are your top suspects now?

Logan
You
Mccrisanth

;)

I explained my issue with you, but I'll think about that after we're done with Logan.

Works
01-08-2014, 08:11 PM
I'm at work right now so I'll be back to post more in about five hours, but my thought right now is that Logan is also Mafia. Etherealsage voted for me early and stuck with me I think in hopes that some of the heat would blow off both him and Logan. I like Maddy idea that Logan is the more valuable target and possibly the Godfather. Etherealsage switched his vote to Logan only after it became clear that it wouldn't really matter. (Dirac also just pointed this out)


Works isn't going to be lynched today.


Well, fair enough. LowIQLogan it is.

EtherealSage
Works
Madrigal
Randall
LowIQLogan
Dirac
P-O
Light Leak

LowIQLogan
Hephaestus
Chobani
Jollybard
Etherealsage

Works
Noir
mccrissanth

Not to say whether I should or shouldn't get hanged, but I offer far more than LowIQ, one way or the other.

It seems like the Mafia got themselves into a bad situation where both of them were put up for the vote. They doubled down and when that didn't work, you can see Ethereal trying to salvage something of the situation, even going so far as to start really posting with a much more incisive tone.

I'm sure that at least one other Mafia is still hiding in the silence either Randall and Miscranth. A fourth mafia member is probably being much more talkative.

I'll have to reread day 2 and look at the vote sequencing a bit more. It was getting to be a frustrating headache toward the end.

I know that Etherealsage is dead, but I doubt he's removed himself from the planning aspect. He's still dangerous and helpful to a mafia team in the ways a dead townie can't be helpful to a living townie team.

Osito Polar
01-08-2014, 08:16 PM
Yuno saluted the group.

"Good work, ladies! You've definitely killed one of the conspirators. Etherealsage was guilty!"

"Wait, are you saying that you knew that this entire time and didn't tell us?" asked JollyBard

"Yeah, why?"

"Well, because you could have saved us a lot of trouble. I mean, can you tell us who the other conspirators are?"

"Sure! Polemarch and Osito definitely weren't part of the conspiracy."

"Okay, but that's not what I asked you."

"You sure do ask a lot of questions." Yuno wiped her axe using a clean bit of Etherealsage's blouse. JollyBard decided she'd best stop trying to interrogate her.

"What now?" asked Light Leak.

"I don't feel so good." said P-O.

"Do you need to lie down?" asked Madrigal.

"I don't feel so good either." said Randall.

"Maybe one of you is dead?" asked Dirac.

"Maybe." said Randall. "Errrrrrruuuuuuggggh!" she raised her arms like a zombie and pantomimed eating Light Leak's brain.

"No, seriously. I think ... " P-O examined herself for signs that she'd been murdered when she wasn't looking. "Is there something on my back?" she asked.

"Oh yeah, there's a big knife sticking out." Hephaestus touched it.

"Stop that! That hurts!" said P-O and immediately dropped dead.

"P-O, I'm sorry!" said Hephaestus.

"Not your fault, you didn't stab her." said Dirac.

"Not it!" said chobani.

"Shut up, we're not doing that right now." said Light Leak, shushing her.

P-O was a Townie, the village jailer.

Madrigal
01-08-2014, 08:16 PM
I know that Etherealsage is dead, but I doubt he's removed himself from the planning aspect. He's still dangerous and helpful to a mafia team in the ways a dead townie can't be helpful to a living townie team.

I was thinking the same thing. And I think that the fact Etherealsage got himself killed first, when he's a typically strong mafia player, points to the possibility he was spread too thin and having to compensate for fellow mafia inaction. That supports the theory that his buddies are not high profile posters.

Osito Polar
01-08-2014, 08:22 PM
Just as a point of order, Etherealsage ought to stop playing since the Townies killed him. That *does* mean not conspiring any longer with the other Mafia. It would be totally cool for him to give them a blueprint for going forward once he could see the writing on the wall that the Townies were going to lynch him. But seriously a valid reason for lynching him would be for the Townies to potentially remove a strong player from the Mafia team. They should get the full benefit of pursuing that strategy.

Osito Polar
01-08-2014, 08:23 PM
And dammit I wish I could edit my post. I had a follow-up joke about Randall pretending to be a zombie that I forgot to include. Oh well, I guess I'll roll it into the next one.

Dirac
01-08-2014, 08:27 PM
I was thinking the same thing. And I think that the fact Etherealsage got himself killed first, when he's a typically strong mafia player, points to the possibility he was spread too thin and having to compensate for fellow mafia inaction. That supports the theory that his buddies are not high profile posters.
He did say he was busy IRL too though.

Madrigal
01-08-2014, 08:28 PM
Just as a point of order, Etherealsage ought to stop playing since the Townies killed him. That *does* mean not conspiring any longer with the other Mafia. It would be totally cool for him to give them a blueprint for going forward once he could see the writing on the wall that the Townies were going to lynch him. But seriously a valid reason for lynching him would be for the Townies to potentially remove a strong player from the Mafia team. They should get the full benefit of pursuing that strategy.

I agree, but we couldn't prove that isn't happening. May as well assume Etherealsage is still among us.

Unless he's pissed that they didn't help much, so they might be on their own. xD

Randall
01-08-2014, 09:15 PM
My current 3
LowIQLogan
Dirac
Noir

Might be subject to change, I want to read through all the previous threads with all this new information in mind.

Noir
01-08-2014, 09:34 PM
I'll support a vote for LowIQLogan. I think that would help fill in a lot of the blanks from last round, regardless of his ultimate guilt or innocence.

Blorg
01-08-2014, 09:56 PM
(I've been busy today so I might write a more in-depth post later)
I'm voting for LowIQLogan

Madrigal
01-08-2014, 10:36 PM
So far:

LowIQLogan
Madrigal
Jollybard
Dirac
Noir
chobani

Works and Randall have both indicated they might vote for LowIQLogan but need to read more.

If Logan and Mccrissanth are mafia, I don't foresee a great deal of resistence. Logan will probably take a shot at it though. Randall's ultimate choice should be interesting.

Randall
01-08-2014, 11:54 PM
I've got to admit, since two of my top suspects (Noir and Dirac) are voting for my third suspect (LowIQLogan), I'm a bit confused as to what to do. If Logan is mafia, then I would assume Dirac and Noir probably aren't (or at least not both of them together). If Logan is a townie, then I would assume Noir and/or Dirac are mafia. Either way, if my suspicions are correct, we would stand to learn a lot from lynching Logan.

I vote LowIQLogan, in the interest of making this round boring.

As a side note, P-O voted for Dirac before he was killed, and also accused JollyBard of being mafia. Not sure if either of those things are relevant.

LowIQLogan
Madrigal
Jollybard
Dirac
Noir
chobani
Randall

Madrigal
01-09-2014, 12:02 AM
:lol: @ your sig

Hephaestus
01-09-2014, 12:08 AM
I've got nothing stronger than a vote for LowIQLogan. I'll keep researching current and past posts looking for threads.

Maddy, I think you're right regarding PM's especially since ES was mafia. I think it unlikely that an experienced leader like that wouldn't defend against PM watchers--though ironically, it was you who put me onto the tactic (indirectly). You and whoever it was on Central who made me aware that even invisible members show up on "Who's Online".

Still, there are good reasons not to use it as primary evidence.

Dirac is still on my watch list, but I'd not want to lynch based on PM and hunch--especially while we have a bigger candidate in Logan.

LowIQLogan
Madrigal
JollyBard
Dirac
Noir
chobani
Randall
Hephaestus

Randall
01-09-2014, 12:18 AM
Oh, and Logan, please give us a list of your suspects and reasoning for each. If you turn out to be a townie, I want to at least know who you would want to lynch.

Noir
01-09-2014, 12:20 AM
No Day Phase killing yet. So either the Daytime Killer has limited ammunition (vigilante), or he only get's a kill every other cycle (serial killer). Any one else have any inferences/observations in this regard?

Light Leak
01-09-2014, 01:38 AM
I don't have much time right now for posting thoughts, but I'm going to vote for LowIQLogan.

LowIQLogan
Madrigal
JollyBard
Dirac
Noir
chobani
Randall
Hephaestus
Light Leak

Madrigal
01-09-2014, 01:59 AM
Maddy, I think you're right regarding PM's especially since ES was mafia. I think it unlikely that an experienced leader like that wouldn't defend against PM watchers--though ironically, it was you who put me onto the tactic (indirectly). You and whoever it was on Central who made me aware that even invisible members show up on "Who's Online".
I almost said that myself, heh. That there was no way Etherealsage would approve of that. But regarding invisible members showing on "who's online", I remember that post vaguely and it wasn't me. Anyway, it doesn't matter. To be honest, I was tempted to check INTPc at the begnning of the game to see if any members from this game were PMing there, but quickly discarded the idea as a bad one. It's that kind of thing that makes logic take a backseat in favor of imaginary vibes and hunches.


No Day Phase killing yet. So either the Daytime Killer has limited ammunition (vigilante), or he only get's a kill every other cycle (serial killer). Any one else have any inferences/observations in this regard?

Serial killers only kill every other cycle? I was hoping whoever killed Polemarch regretted the decision and decided to delay a new kill. :/

Speculating about a serial killer seems like an ungratifying task. It seems much easier to think about who is mafia, and that's what I'm sticking with.

Hey, maybe the possible serial killer is Chaotic Good and decides to join the townie cause. :nerd:

/incurable optimist

Works
01-09-2014, 02:26 AM
LowIQLogan

LowIQLogan
Madrigal
Jollybard
Dirac
Noir
chobani
Randall
Works

Sorry, my last post insinuated strongly that I believe Logan to be Mafia based the conclusion that it makes the most sense given Etherealsages end of day behavior. I bolded it now.

Randall is speaking up again, but he contributed almost zero analysis for Day 2. Still he was one of the early voters for Etherealsage and he voted at a time that actually helped balance the votes away from Logan. For Randal to be Mafia and vote for Etherealsage would be super risky, unless he was hoping someone would point that out to help build credibility. (Like I'm doing right now.) I know I said that I was suspicious of him in today's post, but rereading Day 2 and now Day 3, I've got more trust for the goat that I had before.

Mccrissanth continues to be mostly silent, dead weight. The fact that she stayed out of the Etherealsage/Logan matchup and instead voted for me also casts more doubt on her. If Logan turns out to be Mafia as many of us suspect, this will be all the more damning. She remains high on my list. Also, her vote for me was followed almost 14 minutes later by Sage chiming in.

Lastly Noir. I have my suspicions about him, but I still don't think that he, Ethereal, and Mccrissanth would all be Mafia and would all vote for me. I'm at an either/or situation here. It's either Noir or Mccrissanth. I still think his accusations against me were weak and misleading. However, it's when I examine his pre-lynch short lists and compare them to his actual voting where things are interesting.

8:58 PM Yesterday Pre Lynch
Hephaestus
Works
LowIQLogan

8:59 PM Yesterday Pre Lynch
Logan
Works
Hephaestus

It's weird that he voted for me and kept my vote, but listed Logan higher on the suspect list. We were in danger of having a tie and he could have moved to break it. A tie would have been an optimal situation for the Mafia and terrible for us. He was certainly active and posting at the time and could have done more to stop it. Maybe staying on record against me was more important, but why not do more to vote for Logan? Could it be that he was trying to serve two masters here? Publicly condemn Logan, but not actually do anything to endanger him more? Like I said before, I don't think both he and Mccrissanth are Mafia so I have situation where I suspect them both, but don't think both of them can be Mafia.


Post lynching 9:12 AM Today
Logan
mccrissanth
P-O

11:23 AM Today
Jollybard
LowIQLogan
mccrissanth

Works
01-09-2014, 02:27 AM
LowIQLogan
Madrigal
JollyBard
Dirac
Noir
chobani
Randall
Hephaestus
Light Leak
Works

Corrected list

Madrigal
01-09-2014, 02:49 AM
Randall is speaking up again, but he contributed almost zero analysis for Day 2. Still he was one of the early voters for Etherealsage and he voted at a time that actually helped balance the votes away from Logan. For Randal to be Mafia and vote for Etherealsage would be super risky, unless he was hoping someone would point that out to help build credibility. (Like I'm doing right now.) I know I said that I was suspicious of him in today's post, but rereading Day 2 and now Day 3, I've got more trust for the goat that I had before.

Let's not forget Randall was unanimously suspected before Etherealsage came up as a suspect. Maybe Randall figured that if he voted early against Sage, people would be like, "Naaaah, that's got Randall on it? I want no part in this." Etherealsage would seem less suspect by virtue of being targetted by Randall. This is when Ethereal began targetting you. You were not exactly trusted by everyone at that point. Maybe the whole plan was to spin a campaign against you and hope Randall would become a less interesting target due to his scant participation. That sounds like the mafia getting a lot of credit, though. But at this point I wouldn't put it past them.

Of course, if Logan is the godfather, and Randall is mafia, his vote against Logan would be a little crazy. Maybe Logan is a special role mafia, but not the godfather. Maybe Randall is not mafia. Maybe Randall is the godfather. Maybe Randall is neither camp.

None of this makes me want to kill Logan any less, though.

Re: mccrissanth and Noir. I thought of that too. Three mafia can't have been voting you. I can believe that maybe two mafia were, and that mccrissanth is a mafia noob for doing it. Noir seems too impulsive to be mafia to me, I am betting he was the odd one out there.

Madrigal
01-09-2014, 02:55 AM
Maybe Logan is the Godfather and all the remaining mafia will vote Logan in the hopes that someone loses their shit and says, "This can't be right."

Because if the mafia is weak, that could be their only choice to save the game.

Madrigal
01-09-2014, 02:58 AM
That and Logan kicking as much as he can.

Noir
01-09-2014, 03:36 AM
It's weird that he voted for me and kept my vote, but listed Logan higher on the suspect list. We were in danger of having a tie and he could have moved to break it. A tie would have been an optimal situation for the Mafia and terrible for us. He was certainly active and posting at the time and could have done more to stop it. Maybe staying on record against me was more important, but why not do more to vote for Logan? Could it be that he was trying to serve two masters here? Publicly condemn Logan, but not actually do anything to endanger him more? Like I said before, I don't think both he and Mccrissanth are Mafia so I have situation where I suspect them both, but don't think both of them can be Mafia.

Just to clear the air a little bit, I think I should explain my approach to Mafia and to psychological games in general. I think Mafia is like poker, only the currency we are all dealing in is not money but rather TRUST. Everyone is allotted the same amount of trust at the beginning of the game, and, make no mistake, every post is a hand played. Now think about types of poker players. Some poker players are very sparing with their plays, they bet small or not at all. These are the so-called "rocks" like Randall, Logan, and mccrissanth. They end up just bleeding chips, as people trust them less and less every hand. Then think about noobs like chobani and Jollybard: they get excited easily and bet enthusiastically, but they often make mistakes. Veterans brush them off because they know they'll get taken eventually. They're watching the other Vets instead. Then think about the Vets: Some people play the cards, some people play the players. Heph is the analytical type, he knows all the percentages. Maddy plays the people, she has a good read on human behavior.

Me, I'm the impulsive type, I play from the gut. I regularly bet on hunches, and I'm not afraid to lose chips. I play the early hands fast and loose, and tighten up as I go. That way, if I'm out early? Great. At least I didn't sit in a chair for an extra 4 hours just to lose it all anyway. And if I win big? Then I can use that added weight to influence the betting later on. It's all poker to me. I bet against you on a hunch. Maddy called me, you raised, I...considered folding (voting for Logan), but in the end just took the loss. Think about it this way though: you won a huge pot in voting for ES early. People trust the fuck out of you. And, yeah, I took a loss, but I don't think it's anything I can't recover from. For what it's worth, if I truly thought we were in danger of a stalemate, I would have switched. In terms of betting psychology though, I'd rather be seen as bold and wrong then flakey and right. Take that for what it's worth.

Madrigal
01-09-2014, 03:54 AM
Why have neither me nor Works been killed after Etherealsage turned out to be mafia?

Do you think they suspected P-O was a detective? I have trouble imagining they could have suspected his exact role. P-O mainly asked questions and kept a low profile, maybe they thought he was more than met the eye. But I still don't understand why me and Works were off the hook. This is not changing my vote, but it's the only thing that sounds out of place to me right now.

LowIQLogan
01-09-2014, 04:06 AM
Whole herd of anime school girls are against me. Chances of convincing everyone to change their votes in order to live till next turn: hopeless.
http://i497.photobucket.com/albums/rr335/Happynoodleboi/animebusiness_zps2118127f.png (http://s497.photobucket.com/user/Happynoodleboi/media/animebusiness_zps2118127f.png.html)


I just realized something. Someone in the mafia is smart. Shit. How did they figure this out?

Well I definitely suspected P-O had a special role (the wrong one I suspected vigilante/serial killer, there's really no way anyone could've seen the jailer thing coming) and so did Heph. Also we know that EtherealSage is on the mafia and he's p smart. Also Heph made a post about it at the very beginning of the night phase so the mafia could've just been convinced by that. I think this was the right move by heph btw because there was and still is a serious threat of the serial killer and we should share insights we have regarding that special role.


Here's what I think. I think Logan may be the godfather. Especially since Etherealsage didn't want to lynch him even when his continuity was on the line. Then, his first reaction when he saw the dogpile against him was to say Logan had flimsy evidence. That accusation from a proven mafia could be meant to cover Logan after his death. Let's not forget that he defended Oso just before he killed Oso.

I think we need to lynch Logan, hands down.

I'm going to start by saying I'll address the fact that your evidence against me is that I wanted to kill a mafia later. (I want everyone to just think about this) Lets say you're right and my strategy is to kill other mafia in order to gain whatever trustworthiness that brings with the townies. If you think this is my strategy why not just let me throw more mafia under the bus to save myself? I don't think helping start the dogpile on to EtherealSage should make me immune from suspiscion but I do think too many people are ignoring the real evidence we have from last round which is voting habits; the flip floppers and the timings of when people voted when it became clear that ES was favored to lynch over me.

Noir's post here (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?344-Anime-Mafia-Day-3&p=6729&viewfull=1#post6729)is exceptional and I think the key to finding the mafia is there to be analyzed.


Personal Defence: Note that when I vote ES and Work have the same number of votes and if I was mafia I could've gone for Works, instead I vote for a person we now know is mafia.

Madrigal thinks the mafia had a plan to sacrifice ES in order to gain trustworthiness. But I certainly haven't gained any trustworthiness since last round! In fact its a unanimous vote against me with both townies and mafia working together to kill me. Let us look who did seem to gain trustworthiness last round.


Works, Maddy, and Randall voted for ES right off the bat. I think that speaks strongly in their favor.

I do agree that baring godlike mafia plans that these people should get credit for voting for a mafia before it was obvious he would die and I wouldn't suspect any of them if Madrigal didn't have this theory that I am a special role mafia who's more important than having a whole other mafia member.

Firstly this theory of hers presupposes two special roles in the game that may or may not exist. The Godfather and the detective because there would be no point to the godfather if there wasn't a detective (I guess we should give kyuri the benefit of the doubt, maybe she's what the anime school girls would call a COCK TEASE and gave people useless roles). We already know there is a Jailer (which btw another props to kyuri for using less popular roles) and also an unaccounted for serial killer/vigilante (or someone else with killing power). It is possible for there to be 4 roles in a game this size, but how many things need to line up for maddy to even start making sense with this?

Secondly, I think it is a terrible strategy for the mafia to 'sacrifice' other mafia on purpose as having townies who kind of trust you doesn't make the game as easy to win as having mafia alive that actively work to fulfill your plans and who can vote as townies anyways... Voting to kill your own mafia team mates is always a last resort and I doubt it ever works.

I think we need to apply occam's razor and just assume we got lucky and the mafia fucked up last round and had to do some last minute changes to try to cover up. Flip Floppers and late voters that make the suspect list:
Dirac,
LightLeak, (I believe she changed her vote only to prevent mafia from changing votes last minute and suspect her much less)
mccrissanth,
Jolly Bard,
chobani,
Heph (who changed to P-O and after wrote analysis about why he thinks P-O is the serial killer/vigilante, I don't know what to make of this really but if he was mafia I'd think he'd have tried harder to get more people to vote for his new suspect instead of ES)

Of those I am more prone to suspect Dirac and Jolly Bard.

Jolly Bard has been acting like too much of a noob and I can see someone like ES giving him advice on how to do that like "you should act frustrated and vote for your self once lol"

Dirac waited to vote until the outcome was mostly decided and P-O suspected him for some reason.

But tbh all of those choices seem boring to me.

I really want to vote for Madrigal this round. My favorite mafia conspiracy right now is that Maddy is actually using the same strategy she is accusing me of but its actually working for her. I have seen a lot of theories about what it means if I'm mafia and I'm sorry that you're all going to be mindfucked after you lynch me. I'm just a townie and there's not much insight I can give all by my lonesome. I guess what I hope happens after I get lynched is that the townies lynch maddy and she turns out to be mafia.

My three suspects for mafia are:

maddy
jollybard
dirac

People I think are townies:
works
heph
noir

ambivalent feelings:
lightleak
chobani
mccrinsanth
randall

Kyuri
01-09-2014, 04:10 AM
Just as a point of order, Etherealsage ought to stop playing since the Townies killed him. That *does* mean not conspiring any longer with the other Mafia. It would be totally cool for him to give them a blueprint for going forward once he could see the writing on the wall that the Townies were going to lynch him. But seriously a valid reason for lynching him would be for the Townies to potentially remove a strong player from the Mafia team. They should get the full benefit of pursuing that strategy.

Yes, this is a good point. I can't exactly prevent communication, but please don't.

Works
01-09-2014, 04:10 AM
Why have neither me nor Works been killed after Etherealsage turned out to be mafia?

Do you think they suspected P-O was a detective? I have trouble imagining they could have suspected his exact role. P-O mainly asked questions and kept a low profile, maybe they thought he was more than met the eye. But I still don't understand why me and Works were off the hook. This is not changing my vote, but it's the only thing that sounds out of place to me right now.

The Mafia is probably avoiding picking people who might be shielded by a doctor. Doctor saves are limited and we're both, as you said, obvious targets. The choice to use a save or even the threat of a save could be enough to stay their hand. It could also be an issue of prioritization, that P-O was more dangerous and you or I are next. Or, it could be that we were right about Sage, but our next set of suspects is terribly off and the Mafia are hoping they could leech a few townie lynches from that bad momentum.

I'm hoping it's the doctor theory and not another, because the latter seems so suggest we killed Sage, but loaded up our lists with innocent people.

The other alternative, the one I'm really hoping is not true, is that you're actually Mafia. By saying that I understand I'm also casting that accusation against myself as well, but it's definitely something that needs to be stated especially going into the next few cycles.

Works
01-09-2014, 04:21 AM
Re: mccrissanth and Noir. I thought of that too. Three mafia can't have been voting you. I can believe that maybe two mafia were, and that mccrissanth is a mafia noob for doing it. Noir seems too impulsive to be mafia to me, I am betting he was the odd one out there.

45 Minutes later


Just to clear the air a little bit, I think I should explain my approach to Mafia and to psychological games in general. I think Mafia is like poker, only the currency we are all dealing in is not money but rather TRUST. Everyone is allotted the same amount of trust at the beginning of the game, and, make no mistake, every post is a hand played. Now think about types of poker players. Some poker players are very sparing with their plays, they bet small or not at all. These are the so-called "rocks" like Randall, Logan, and mccrissanth. They end up just bleeding chips, as people trust them less and less every hand. Then think about noobs like chobani and Jollybard: they get excited easily and bet enthusiastically, but they often make mistakes. Veterans brush them off because they know they'll get taken eventually. They're watching the other Vets instead. Then think about the Vets: Some people play the cards, some people play the players. Heph is the analytical type, he knows all the percentages. Maddy plays the people, she has a good read on human behavior.

Me, I'm the impulsive type, I play from the gut. I regularly bet on hunches, and I'm not afraid to lose chips. I play the early hands fast and loose, and tighten up as I go. That way, if I'm out early? Great. At least I didn't sit in a chair for an extra 4 hours just to lose it all anyway. And if I win big? Then I can use that added weight to influence the betting later on. It's all poker to me. I bet against you on a hunch. Maddy called me, you raised, I...considered folding (voting for Logan), but in the end just took the loss. Think about it this way though: you won a huge pot in voting for ES early. People trust the fuck out of you. And, yeah, I took a loss, but I don't think it's anything I can't recover from. For what it's worth, if I truly thought we were in danger of a stalemate, I would have switched. In terms of betting psychology though, I'd rather be seen as bold and wrong then flakey and right. Take that for what it's worth.

Correct reading or not, Noir really grabbed on to that bit like a life preserver.

Madrigal
01-09-2014, 04:26 AM
Dear Logan, I expected no less than a post that long. Nice to see you squirm a bit.


I'm going to start by saying I'll address the fact that your evidence against me is that I wanted to kill a mafia later. (I want everyone to just think about this) Lets say you're right and my strategy is to kill other mafia in order to gain whatever trustworthiness that brings with the townies.

Nice try. I didn't suspect you because you were going to "kill a mafia later". I suspect you because Sage pointed at you and REFUSED to vote for you until later. Punto Numero Uno.

The mafia is bad, and you are likely part of it, because you've been playing badly. Etherealsage wouldn't have been lynched in a million years if he had semi-competent mates to cover for him. He's too valuable.

You're going down.

JollyBard
01-09-2014, 04:28 AM
Oh man, his suspects list is priceless.

Works
01-09-2014, 04:31 AM
Personal Defence: Note that when I vote ES and Work have the same number of votes and if I was mafia I could've gone for Works, instead I vote for a person we now know is mafia.


You're making my head hurt. I read your entire post, but pulled this part out because it almost changed my mind. Had you voted for me, you would have also been voting with Noir, Mccrinsanth, and Etherealsage. One proven Mafia and two people who I think one of them is Mafia. Crowding that many Mafia into a single vote would have been really dumb.

Then again... you probably also figured you were going to be dead pretty soon anyway.

The problem is your initial credibility gap of not posting. It put you on the chopping block in the first place when you'd probably never have been there in the first place. Etherealsage either tried to save you (assuming MafiaLogan) or dragged you down with him (assuming TownieLogan).

Madrigal
01-09-2014, 04:35 AM
The other alternative, the one I'm really hoping is not true, is that you're actually Mafia. By saying that I understand I'm also casting that accusation against myself as well, but it's definitely something that needs to be stated especially going into the next few cycles.

Wrong. If I were Mafia, the mafia wouldn't lose a man on the second lynch.

Works
01-09-2014, 04:45 AM
Wrong. If I were Mafia, the mafia wouldn't lose a man on the second lynch.

Ha! If I were Mafia, I would have been lynched or shot on the first round. As Oso pointed out in the Graveyard thread, it's amazing that I'm alive at all.

(Really though, if you end up being Mafia, the next time I see you, I'm ordering the Prawn star again and making you drink it. Double. Prawns.)

Madrigal
01-09-2014, 04:51 AM
Ha! If I were Mafia, I would have been lynched or shot on the first round. As Oso pointed out in the Graveyard thread, it's amazing that I'm alive at all.

I repped Oso a lol at that.


(Really though, if you end up being Mafia, the next time I see you, I'm ordering the Prawn star again and making you drink it. Double. Prawns.)

I'm allergic, asshole. :smooch:

LowIQLogan
01-09-2014, 05:02 AM
Dear Logan, I expected no less than a post that long. Nice to see you squirm a bit.



Nice try. I didn't suspect you because you were going to "kill a mafia later". I suspect you because Sage pointed at you and REFUSED to vote for you until later. Punto Numero Uno.

The mafia is bad, and you are likely part of it, because you've been playing badly. Etherealsage wouldn't have been lynched in a million years if he had semi-competent mates to cover for him. He's too valuable.

You're going down.

You're admitting to being manipulated by Etherealsage, you're either playing badly or mafia. Everyone squirms when they die.

LowIQLogan
01-09-2014, 05:04 AM
or rather everyone squirms when they see it coming

Madrigal
01-09-2014, 05:05 AM
You're admitting to being manipulated by Etherealsage, you're either playing badly or mafia. Everyone squirms when they die.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGbiWnoWTto

LowIQLogan
01-09-2014, 05:12 AM
Why weren't you this excited when ES was dying?

Madrigal
01-09-2014, 05:15 AM
Why weren't you this excited when ES was dying?

I like you more.

JollyBard
01-09-2014, 05:48 AM
This feels like middle school all over again (although we don't have middle school over here, but I think those are the right childhood years)

Noir
01-09-2014, 07:12 AM
Here's an idea. Can we vote to end the Day Phase early? 10 out of 11 ballots have been cast. We're still missing mccrissanth, but who gives a shit?

Madrigal
01-09-2014, 07:19 AM
Here's an idea. Can we vote to end the Day Phase early? 10 out of 11 ballots have been cast. We're still missing mccrissanth, but who gives a shit?

That wouldn't be fair to Logan. Plus, if mccrissanth is the mafia noob I think she is, I'd be interested in seeing how she fucks up.

Light Leak
01-09-2014, 01:25 PM
Why have neither me nor Works been killed after Etherealsage turned out to be mafia?

Do you think they suspected P-O was a detective? I have trouble imagining they could have suspected his exact role. P-O mainly asked questions and kept a low profile, maybe they thought he was more than met the eye. But I still don't understand why me and Works were off the hook. This is not changing my vote, but it's the only thing that sounds out of place to me right now.

I doubt they suspected P-O's exact role, but I wouldn't be surprised if they suspected some sort of special role. I had that suspicion myself. Some of the reasons were the same reasons Heph had suspected him as mafia. The thing that really made me suspect it though was that P-O was really adamant about us all making suspect lists and even started that thread. I had some mild suspicion about it at first, but then while we were waiting for the last round to end P-O wanted us all to update our lists right then. I had pointed out that my list would likely change after the round, but P-O still wanted a list. It made me think that he wanted them so that he could use them them as info to use a special role power.

Lilith
01-09-2014, 02:55 PM
That wouldn't be fair to Logan. Plus, if mccrissanth is the mafia noob I think she is, I'd be interested in seeing how she fucks up.
Oh yeah? Does it ever occur to you that not voting EtherealSage when it's too obvious that he'll be lynched nor the next suspect with highest vote is the dumbest thing a mafia member can do? Does it also occur to you that a mafia outing another mafia is the ultimate sacrifice leading to victory? Or were you masterminding this plan?

I'm on my phone and can't quote and explain my points well. It's 11pm here and I'm dead tired. I haven't read the entirety of thread. I'll post my list and reasons first thing in the morning. I hope I still have time. Meatspace is so demanding.

Noir
01-09-2014, 02:56 PM
Here's a crazy idea. What if P-O put the Vigilante/SK in jail, and the reason we haven't seen a Day Phase death today is that P-O was killed before he could let him out? Granted, I don't think it works that way, but it's something to think about.

Madrigal
01-09-2014, 03:15 PM
P-O, Light Leak, Heph, chobani and Jollybard.

They were voting Logan last round. If Logan is innocent, at least one has to be mafia. It wasn't P-O. Light Leak was willing to switch. That leaves us with one vet and two newbies. If Heph were mafia he would have put up a struggle earlier on to save Etherealsage. If chobani or Jollybard were mafia, since I consider them to be vocal townies, they would have also put up a struggle. I didn't see much effort from these players into saving Etherealsage. None of them are high on our suspect lists. My theory is they are all innocent, and Logan is an important mafia. If I am wrong, I will go back to this. But I don't think we're wrong.

Madrigal
01-09-2014, 04:11 PM
Does it also occur to you that a mafia outing another mafia is the ultimate sacrifice leading to victory? Or were you masterminding this plan?

Wow. I just realized the mafia's whole argument is that the mafia spearheaded a lynch of the best mafia player. The townies are gonna win this one for sure.

Kyuri
01-09-2014, 05:18 PM
Here's a crazy idea. What if P-O put the Vigilante/SK in jail, and the reason we haven't seen a Day Phase death today is that P-O was killed before he could let him out? Granted, I don't think it works that way, but it's something to think about.

Jail only applies for that Night. So, the Jailer cannot prevent Day phase deaths. Sorry for the confusion.

Also, if you want the Day to end early, it'd have to be when all players have PM'd me that they are in favor, since I already promised 48 hours and it'd be unfair to players who were expecting that.

Also, if you think Jailer is an uncommon role... you should be be prepared for more, I guess.

Noir
01-09-2014, 05:34 PM
Also, if you want the Day to end early, it'd have to be when all players have PM'd me that they are in favor, since I already promised 48 hours and it'd be unfair to players who were expecting that.

Well I hardly think Logan would vote to speed his own execution, so that's kind of a non-starter. Also guys,


Also, if you think Jailer is an uncommon role... you should be be prepared for more, I guess.

WHAAAAAT? Ominous much? It sounds like apart from the Vigilante/SK and the Jailer, there could be as many as 2-3 other roles we haven't seen yet. Any guesses as to what we might see?

Blorg
01-09-2014, 06:02 PM
WHAAAAAT? Ominous much? It sounds like apart from the Vigilante/SK and the Jailer, there could be as many as 2-3 other roles we haven't seen yet. Any guesses as to what we might see?

I suspect that you have some sort of special role because you're talking about it so much, and this makes me uneasy

Light Leak
01-09-2014, 06:59 PM
^
I would be careful saying things like this. It could result in someone with a special role on the side of the townies getting killed.

Noir
01-09-2014, 07:10 PM
I suspect that you have some sort of special role because you're talking about it so much, and this makes me uneasy

Interesting. While it's true that I've spent more time on the topic than others, it's also true that as a Special I would have a vested interest in concealing that fact. Think about it, once a Special is outed, they're screwed. No Townie will trust them for fear of their actually being Mafia, and the Mafia will immediately target them with the reasonable confidence of offing a Special. Bear in mind too that the Jailer is now dead, so an outed Special is wholly unprotected. The real question then, is this: If you honestly believe I'm a Special, why would you announce it? Unless you believe that I'm somehow allied with the Mafia, that strikes as kind of a dick move. Calling someone a Special is the Mafia equivalent of saying "I think that guy has a briefcase containing either a bomb or a million dollars," it immediately paints a target on their back. So dude, wtf?

LowIQLogan
01-09-2014, 09:05 PM
Interesting. While it's true that I've spent more time on the topic than others, it's also true that as a Special I would have a vested interest in concealing that fact. Think about it, once a Special is outed, they're screwed. No Townie will trust them for fear of their actually being Mafia, and the Mafia will immediately target them with the reasonable confidence of offing a Special. Bear in mind too that the Jailer is now dead, so an outed Special is wholly unprotected. The real question then, is this: If you honestly believe I'm a Special, why would you announce it? Unless you believe that I'm somehow allied with the Mafia, that strikes as kind of a dick move. Calling someone a Special is the Mafia equivalent of saying "I think that guy has a briefcase containing either a bomb or a million dollars," it immediately paints a target on their back. So dude, wtf?

Because one of the specials has already killed a townie so it could be a serial killer...

LowIQLogan
01-09-2014, 11:32 PM
Hey guys you are forgetting to tell kyuri that you've changed your votes.

JollyBard
01-09-2014, 11:35 PM
Hey guys you are forgetting to tell kyuri that you've changed your votes.

Oh man, you are so dead.

Lilith
01-10-2014, 03:10 AM
I realized that I missed a lot of exchanges and it's kind of slacking to bring them back to the table. A couple of points as I see it.

On P.O - I had an inkling after Oso's death that he's special. His enthusiasm to ask everyone's list put him at risk perhaps. Additionally, the mafia took Hephy's analysis and took advantage of it. A smart move for team mafia. It's just too early for him to die.

On EtherealSage - I don't know. I'm not very keen to probe on him more because I know he's going to be killed anyway. Before I cast my vote, the struggle between LowIQLogan and EtherealSage was there already. I'm not leaning for them to be townies, so either lynch is no biggie. I opted to explore outside the herd.

On Works - I have given my reasons why I voted him. I'm thinking that the mafia could have struggled between killing Works or P.O. but opted the latter for greater benefit. Or maybe not. This round is too exciting for me to miss.

On Dirac - Leaning mafia. Of course it's logical to say that PMing holds little value to players' innocence. I don't like to dismiss that side entirely, however.


Here's a crazy idea. What if P-O put the Vigilante/SK in jail, and the reason we haven't seen a Day Phase death today is that P-O was killed before he could let him out? Granted, I don't think it works that way, but it's something to think about.
This is a bizarre idea but I was thinking P.O saved someone else but did not see his death coming.


Wow. I just realized the mafia's whole argument is that the mafia spearheaded a lynch of the best mafia player. The townies are gonna win this one for sure.
You're dodging. This is the third time I've expressed my suspicion of you but did not do anything to clear that up. Best? Wasn't you or Works who said that if ES is a mafia, he is doing a lousy job as mafia? Even if he is dead, it doesn't mean he's going to stop playing. Plus, you are fun to kill. You're a veteran to this game so I know you can think of different strategies to use if Situation B comes up. I know you've been a voice of reason throughout this game, still I couldn't let go of my suspicion until I see you dead.


Hey guys you are forgetting to tell kyuri that you've changed your votes.
Dude, you're dangerous. Not only you're being difficult with the townies but you seem to be playing this game on your own. If you're the serial killer, you have to be killed. Quick.

Leaning townies:
Hephaestus
Light Leak

Probable mafia:
Dirac
Madrigal

I'm going to vote LowIQLogan this round.

Madrigal
01-10-2014, 03:50 AM
On P.O - I had an inkling after Oso's death that he's special. His enthusiasm to ask everyone's list put him at risk perhaps. Additionally, the mafia took Hephy's analysis and took advantage of it. A smart move for team mafia. It's just too early for him to die.
I find this extremely interesting. How do you know so well that "the mafia took advantage of Heph's analysis"? Because you know who's mafia?

In this statement you are calling Heph a townie without any doubts. However, he has not cleared himself to the townies in this game yet, so I find this curious. Maybe you are calling him a townie because he is, and you and your buddies used his analysis. Heph has speculated about special roles in these games before, as a townie. Personally, I think he does this in part due to ego, and in part due to only a moderate desire to be a team player. I wouldn't kill Heph if I were mafia because he's a source of information on townies. Sorry Heph but goddamn it.

At the same time, Heph voted Logan and stuck with him. If Logan is innocent, he will be most suspect to me (only after you though). Why? Because he's intelligent as hell and I find him impenetrable on many occasions. His game is unpredictable. Sometimes I think this is because he's thinking of things on a level a few steps ahead of us and thinks we can follow him, or simply considering more options. Whatever it is, he is smart enough to exploit that for mafia purposes.

In the thread before this one, Heph made a long post on LowIQLogan. Okay, that's fine. I can believe he did a great deal to put him in the spotlight. But he always kept Etherealsage among his suspects. Never really stopped accusing him, and at one point said that lynching either of them was fine. Cautious mafia move or Heph being a good townie.

Back to my point. You seem to know exactly what Heph is. You seem to know that the mafia used his analysis. I am wondering if you know Heph is mafia, or townie. We will all have more information after Logan is lynched.


This is a bizarre idea but I was thinking P.O saved someone else but did not see his death coming.

What? Why would you think he saved someone?


You're dodging. This is the third time I've expressed my suspicion of you but did not do anything to clear that up. Best? Wasn't you or Works who said that if ES is a mafia, he is doing a lousy job as mafia? Even if he is dead, it doesn't mean he's going to stop playing. Plus, you are fun to kill. You're a veteran to this game so I know you can think of different strategies to use if Situation B comes up. I know you've been a voice of reason throughout this game, still I couldn't let go of my suspicion until I see you dead.

Etherealsage did a bad job because he has bad team mates. He didn't do it alone. Otherwise, he is proven to be good at this game. If I were mafia, and I am a good one when this is my role (if I may say so myself), the last thing I'm going to do is be at the forefront of a lynch against a valueable mafia like ES. I wouldn't even want to lynch a non-valuable one. I would not ask a fellow mafia to agree to that (not to mention that ES of all people would tell me to fuck off, lol), and I would hate for even one mafia to die, especially early on in the game when there is no justification for it.


Leaning townies:
Hephaestus
Light Leak

Thanks. I will consider this very carefully after Logan's death.


I'm going to vote LowIQLogan this round.

I'm not surprised.

Hephaestus
01-10-2014, 04:49 AM
Sorry Heph but goddamn it.



FWIW, I've been trying to keep most of my speculations on that line to myself this game--mostly because I can't tell if what I'm seeing is specials covering themselves, or mafia covering themselves. I laid out against P-O because I was certain he was either mafia or an anti-town special.

Hell, keeping cover on a special nearly got me lynched last game anyway, but revealing him helped us get the win, so--still fiddling with the learning curve.

If I'd noticed what Lightleak recently pointed out, about P-O's behavior regarding the shortlist thread, I probably would have held my tongue. It was an excellent observation. In my adrenaline, I wrote off the same behavior as playing the helpful townie.

Hephaestus
01-10-2014, 04:56 AM
Side note: I didn't stick with Logan. I switched from mccriss to Logan because she pointed out the one of the bigger pieces of evidence that I had to suspect her was wrong, so Logan moved up to primary suspect.

Madrigal
01-10-2014, 05:03 AM
Side note: I didn't stick with Logan. I switched from mccriss to Logan because she pointed out the one of the bigger pieces of evidence that I had to suspect her was wrong, so Logan moved up to primary suspect.

I was referring to the final hours of that lynch. For the record you also briefly targetted P-O.

And anyway, I'm not trying to lynch you. I find that mccrissanth's commentary on you is much more incriminating against her than you at this point, especially if Logan turns out to be mafia.

Kyuri
01-10-2014, 11:45 AM
Well I hardly think Logan would vote to speed his own execution, so that's kind of a non-starter.

Alternatively, I can end Day phase immediately when vote reaches majority.

Hephaestus
01-10-2014, 12:04 PM
From what I've read, that's a fairly common method of moderating a forum game. It has it's tradeoffs of course, especially in some endgame states, but it can definitely help keep the game from hitting long dormant stagnant patches.

Madrigal
01-10-2014, 12:16 PM
Alternatively, I can end Day phase immediately when vote reaches majority.

I don't agree with this. Less time to watch what the town/mafia does.

Light Leak
01-10-2014, 12:40 PM
The end of this round is soon so there's really no need to end it early at this point. May as well wait and see if anything happens.

Noir
01-10-2014, 03:01 PM
Agreed. More information will always trump less information. Now that I think about it more, it also gives the low-volume posters more time to come out of the woodwork, which is also a plus.

Kyuri
01-10-2014, 04:28 PM
From what I've read, that's a fairly common method of moderating a forum game. It has it's tradeoffs of course, especially in some endgame states, but it can definitely help keep the game from hitting long dormant stagnant patches.

Yeah, I decided against that because additional rules just tend to cause confusion here, but it adds an interesting dynamic.

Kyuri
01-10-2014, 05:39 PM
Day phase has ended! LowIQLogan was lynched. He was Vanilla Townie. Yah really. xD

Night will last 12 hours or as soon as I have all Night actions.

Madrigal
01-10-2014, 05:40 PM
SHIT

Kyuri
01-10-2014, 05:40 PM
*She

:banghead:

JollyBard
01-10-2014, 05:43 PM
WHAT

Madrigal
01-10-2014, 05:48 PM
New suspects:

Mccrissanth
Heph

Moderately suspicious:

Light Leak
Randall

Most likely townies:
Works
Jollybard
Chobani
Dirac
Noir

Sorry Logan! But your death was going to clear this up one way or another. If you hadn't made such absurd accusations I might have stopped to listen to you a second.

I'm watching Heph and mccrissaneth right now. Leaning to mccrisaneth first but let me know what you guys think.