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Kyuri
01-10-2014, 06:07 PM
Day Four has begun! Day and Night phases will proceed as previously.

Mccrissanth has been killed during the Night. She was a Vanilla Townie.

Live list:

Osito Polar vanilla townie
Madrigal
Hephaestus
md5fungi vanilla townie
mccrissanth vanilla townie
Randall
Polemarch vanilla townie
Dirac
Light Leak
JollyBard
chobani
Noir
LowIQLogan vanilla townie
Works
P-O town jailer
Etherealsage mafia

JollyBard
01-10-2014, 06:11 PM
Wow. Ok. All the most suspected mafia have been killed. Shit's gonna get real.

Light Leak
01-10-2014, 06:16 PM
Crap. The only other person I suspected was Dirac. I thought that he had purposely placed the vote that caused the tie between Etherealsage and LowIQLogan because they were both mafia and he was hoping neither would be lynched. It looks like that wasn't the case.

I'm going to have to think about this. I'm not sure who to suspect.

Works
01-10-2014, 06:41 PM
blurgh. With a nearly unanimous vote on Logan, that gives us less to play with this round. My suspect list is also pretty shot right now. I was hoping we'd end this game quickly.

I think the one silver lining to the situation is that none of our specials were killed. This is assuming that our specials are actively working with us, and not with the Mafia.

I want to do some analysis of the end of game lists, but i have to teach!

Madrigal
01-10-2014, 06:42 PM
Short list:
mccrissaneth
Heph

I think one mafia was voting Logan. I don't suspect Jollybard or chobani and Light Leak switched at the last moment. Do we go for Heph? Or mccrissaneth? She was also voting Works who I think we can assume is townie right now.

Light Leak might have been a mafia acting out of self preservation when she switched to Etherealsage. I'd like to know Heph and LL's suspect lists.

Light Leak
01-10-2014, 06:45 PM
^
Ummm... you may want to reread the first post of this thread. Mccrissanth was killed during the night.

Noir
01-10-2014, 06:46 PM
^Lol she's dead Maddy. Mccrissaneth was Vanilla Townie. I also need to re-examine my list, I'll post again later.

Madrigal
01-10-2014, 06:53 PM
:lol:

Sorry, wtf. I thought this was the lynch result.

That puts Heph at the top of my list:

Heph
Randall
Light Leak

Light Leak
01-10-2014, 06:57 PM
Short list:Light Leak might have been a mafia acting out of self preservation when she switched to Etherealsage. I'd like to know Heph and LL's suspect lists.

I switched because I didn't want the mafia to create another tie at the last minute. Lynching either Etherealsage or Logan would answer questions. At the time I thought Logan was more likely mafia and they were creating a tie so he wouldn't be lynched. Obvoiusly I was wrong about LowIQLogan, but it seems that pretty much all of us were.

I'll have to give this all some thought before I make a new list. I'm at work now, so I won't have time to make a list until I get home.

Madrigal
01-10-2014, 06:59 PM
Heph

He was the one who most justified the Logan lynch when Sage was on the chopping block.

Only Jollybard and chobani ended up with him accusing Logan. There was sure to be a mafia among the three. We know one mafia voted Works (Ethereal), and that at least one hid behind the ES lynch. The one behind ES will be harder to figure out than the one who backed the Logan lynch. Therefore, Hephy it is for me.

Osito Polar
01-10-2014, 07:05 PM
LowIQLogan delicately licked the paper and rolled a spliff.

"Personally, I suffer from stress so my doctor recommended smoking a sativa hybrid blend. This here is some OG Kush from my neighborhood dispensary that I like. It's a slightly dank smoke with sugary notes ... it's sort of like you're sucking on a lemon candy, you know? It comes in these cool little popcorn-shaped buds."

She passed the finished product to Madrigal who took a toke before passing to Hephaestus.

"What do you think?"

"It's smooth." Madrigal exhaled and wished she'd copied her Calle 13 playlist on to her smartphone. For some reason the only music she had on there right now was Jpop, and she didn't even like Jpop.

Heph deep-lunged the fuck out of Logan's joint, it's cherry-red end sucking way down. Logan slapped her arm in protest "Hey! Don't bogart that!"

"Yeah, you little slut! It's supposed to be my turn!" Chobani and JollyBard both lunged for the joint. Hephaestus's cheeks bulged out and her face turned slightly green. She tried to retain the jay but chobani seized it away.

She breathed out an enormous cloud and wobbled slowly from side to side.

"WHhhooooaaaaa..."

The girls stopped talking and looked at the very stoned Hephaestus.

"What is it?" asked Works.

"We must kill LowIQLogan." she spoke in a slow monotone, her very words sounding thick, laced with resinous THC.

"LowIQLogan?" they asked in a chorus

"Yes."

"LowIQLogan." the spoke as one

"Yes."

"Not it!" said LowIQLogan as Yuno's axe came down on the back of her head.

"Holy shit, I can't believe you did that. You girls are so easily lead." Hephaestus fished the still mostly full medical weed baggie out of Logan's purse.

"So ... was LowIQLogan one of the conspirators that are lurking among us?" asked Works.

"Yeah. She sort of seemed like an evil-doer." said Dirac.

"I don't think so. She was too stoned to be evil. She sort of reminded me of Jason Mewes." said Light Leak.

"Jason Mewes?" asked JollyBard.

"You know, Jay from 'Jay and Silent Bob' but LowIQLogan had better looking hair." explained Light Leak.

"And she was very good at video games" said mccrissanth.

"No she wasn't she always did that totally cheap move with Dhalsim." said Hephaestus.

"You're just mad because you're a button-mashing dork with a creepy Chun Li fixation" said Works

"Am not!"

The two of them started tussling, Dirac and Light Leak joined in without either of them really picking a side of the quarrel to fight on. Then they all realized they were stepping on mccrissanth.

"Ewww eww eww!"

"Oh what the crap, when did that happen?" asked Dirac

"I hate all of you." said mccrissanth from where she was lying dead on the floor "You all suck really bad."

"Try not to be so negative. You're dead now so you're going to a better place." said Light Leak, encouragingly.

"Oh, fuck you and your patronizing platitudes. I swear you living people are always so inconsiderate of other people's feelings." mccrissanth tried to lift her head to give Light Leak a baleful stare, but being dead found that she couldn't.

"You fiends know who you are. I hope the anime girl Townies kill all of you." she settled for cursing her murderers from beyond the grave.

Madrigal
01-10-2014, 07:08 PM
I know people are confused about Logan turning out to be townie, but realize that upon knowing ES was mafia and Works is probably townie, lynching the third candidate was the smartest move that would give us the most information. We're stronger now than before even with Logan gone.

JollyBard
01-10-2014, 07:09 PM
I'm really leaning towards Heph, too, because of his over-calculated style of playing. Never any fluff. Never "thinking aloud". What he said made sense, but I don't remember him saying something really exceptional.

My other suspect: Randall, because I have no idea what he's doing.

I'm really confused as to why ES tried to defend Logan on day 2. Did he plan to get killed?

Hephaestus
01-10-2014, 07:27 PM
How often has Maddy been right this game? She's lead us to townie after townie, with sadistic glee. I think mccriss was on the right track.

She criticized mccriss for treating me as a confirmed townie; she's giving jb and chobani the same treatment she accused mccriss of. Where's this universal paranoia townies are supposed to have? Amazingly her confirmed townies are the noobs who she can easily lead. She even lead the charge against Logan and es-- both her picks, and surprise! She was down on ES (but allegedly willing to switch) when things resolved. Somehow that clears her.

She mocked mccriss's hypothesis that ES was cannibalized. Now she supports it so long as it suits her. If she is mafia, it's a great plan. She directs to the outside to eliminate the outlying vets and endear herself to the outlying noobs so they can play into her hand once she has to dig through the pile on ES.

I may be wrong in this, but I've got no far off mistakenly removing sadists from a game of hunting monsters.

Madrigal

Hephaestus
01-10-2014, 07:30 PM
*no fear of
Not no far of.

Posting from a phone is a bit of a pain.

Madrigal
01-10-2014, 07:48 PM
How often has Maddy been right this game? She's lead us to townie after townie, with sadistic glee. I think mccriss was on the right track.

She criticized mccriss for treating me as a confirmed townie; she's giving jb and chobani the same treatment she accused mccriss of. Where's this universal paranoia townies are supposed to have? Amazingly her confirmed townies are the noobs who she can easily lead. She even lead the charge against Logan and es-- both her picks, and surprise! She was down on ES (but allegedly willing to switch) when things resolved. Somehow that clears her.

She mocked mccriss's hypothesis that ES was cannibalized. Now she supports it so long as it suits her. If she is mafia, it's a great plan. She directs to the outside to eliminate the outlying vets and endear herself to the outlying noobs so they can play into her hand once she has to dig through the pile on ES.

I may be wrong in this, but I've got no far off mistakenly removing sadists from a game of hunting monsters.

Madrigal

Give us your three suspects, Heph. With explanations.

Noir
01-10-2014, 07:53 PM
Is any one else finding the Mafia's strategy totally inscrutable? I mean why kill mccrissanth? She was topping several lists just behind Logan yesterday, so didn't they just kind of do us a favor? Granted, both she and I would have been partially exonerated with the revelation of Logan's innocence, but it still seems like an odd choice. Why not kill Works for instance? Pretty much everyone agrees he's Townie at this point, so why allow us that confidence?


EtherealSage
Works
Madrigal
Randall
LowIQLogan
Dirac
P-O

LowIQLogan
Light Leak
Hephaestus
Chobani
Jollybard

Works
Noir
mccrissanth
Etherealsage

While I'm willing to entertain the idea of the Mafia willfully cannibalizing one of it's members, I think it's far more credible to say that there is at least one mafioso hiding on the Logan list. Now Light Leak switched to ES shortly after this, and ES to Logan, but I think for the purposes of analysis that this one is the most telling. I still don't understand why ES didn't vote for Logan early on. Doing so would have been an uncontroversial and effective means of saving himself. If we go with the cannibalization theory, then it follows that either Maddy or Randall could be Mafia, as voting for one of their one when their was still a good chance of lynching Logan would have been a good way of covering themselves, regardless of the outcome.

I think we're giving this Mafia team too much credit though. None of these kills (with the baffling and unprecedented exception of P-O) have made much sense. Osito was not an obvious choice, and neither was mccrissanth. I'm going to go with the Logan List for now, as I think that's our best bet for the moment:

Heph
Jollybard
chobani
Light Leak

It's still to soon for me to vote though, I want to see what others have to say.

Hephaestus
01-10-2014, 07:56 PM
When I'm done donating. I'm done writing long posts via phone. Do you know what a pain it is to put in HTML tags via a software keyboard? It's why I didn't put the tally either.

Blorg
01-10-2014, 10:35 PM
Top 3 Suspects:
1. Dirac.
2. Randall.
3. Madrigal.


Madrigal
The whole idea about a mafia "sacrifice" of ES seems like a conspiracy theory to me. However, if I were to buy into the idea that a sacrifice happened, I'd have to suspect that Madrigal played a role in it. I was reading through the threads and her suspicions of ES seem out of the blue to me. It seems like Madrigal and ES were on a stage arguing (or pretending to), and all the other players just stood back and watched because we (or at least I) couldn't follow along.

However, it's also possible that Madrigal suspected him because she's a virtuoso at this game, and/or I'm antonym-of-virtuoso, which is why I didn't see many reasons to suspect ES.

But still:
1. mccrisanth suspected her.
2. It seems suspicious that mccrisanth's death just "slipped by" her. It's in big red letters at the top of the new thread. How can you not notice? That seems like a calculated mafia move to me.

Dirac
I don't want to keep beating a horse that everyone else thinks was stillborn so I won't go into detail (but let me know if you want me to). He seems like a calculated version of JollyBard; his posts are ridiculously suspicious but they don't have the "thinking aloud" tone of JollyBard.


Light Leak
She's posted a lot but she definitely plays safe. I'm mildly suspicious of her for some reason, but I can't find any specific evidence against her.


Noir
I feel like he might be posting so much about special roles so that it looks like he's posting a lot-- and supposedly that excuses him from suspicion-- but at the same time he doesn't say much that is useful. There's not much we can do with knowledge about special roles-- at best, we know what the special roles are and who has them, but if we know, the mafia knows too, which is bad. I hope he posts more about mafia suspects.

Randall
He just doesn't post much. It's annoying. If he's a townie, he's not a useful one.

Works
01-10-2014, 10:36 PM
How often has Maddy been right this game? She's lead us to townie after townie, with sadistic glee. I think mccriss was on the right track.


Madrigal

The thing is, she's been right more often than you. Mccrissanth suspected you were townie, but that was under the assumption Logan was Mafia.

Madrigal
01-10-2014, 10:54 PM
Heph
Jollybard
chobani
Light Leak


I think it has to come from this list. I'd rank Heph as the most suspicious. I believe the mafia is attempting to target special roles, and that's the only explanation I can think of for why they killed mccrisaneth. This is not a normal mafia that kills the most trusted members to leave only suspicious members behind. If they were normal, they would have killed Works, who started and stuck by the Etherealsage lynch from the beginning. But killing P-O and mccrissaneth? I'm willing to bet that's the hand of Heph.

Madrigal
01-10-2014, 11:03 PM
The thing is, she's been right more often than you. Mccrissanth suspected you were townie, but that was under the assumption Logan was Mafia.

The accusation is ridiculous and I find it offensive that someone would think I'd start my supposed mafia career by killing a mafia. Etherealsage would never agree to such a thing. Try to picture that conversation. Seriously. You and me were the most adamant about lynching ES. That should afford us a aminimum of credibility.

Yes, I thought Logan was a special role mafia. So what? It was a theory that was too good to pass up. Lynching Logan was almost a win-win because now we know that a mafia was among the original Logan lynchers. We know who at least one of them tried to take the heat off ES. We have a more precise shortlist of suspects that we didn't have before. We need to analyze those suspects carefully. It will be a waste of time this round to analyze those who supported lynching a mafia. That's going to be a lot harder to sift through.

Madrigal
01-10-2014, 11:18 PM
But still:
1. mccrisanth suspected her.
2. It seems suspicious that mccrisanth's death just "slipped by" her. It's in big red letters at the top of the new thread. How can you not notice? That seems like a calculated mafia move to me.


Who cares who mccrissaneth suspected? She just popped up two or three times to fling random suspicions. Being suspected by someone popular on shortlists (until now) doesn't mean as much as you think it does. And I missed the OP because I was posting from my phone at work. I didn't read the OP because I thought it was stating Logan's innocence. I quickly scrolled all the way down to post my new suspects. I didn't think we were going to know who the mafia lynched until several hours later. Kyuri always says "12 hours or until all the night actions are handed in". I helped lynch ES and I made your shortlist for that stupid mistake? It doesn't make any sense, it's dispproportionate.

Blorg
01-10-2014, 11:28 PM
^I was actually thinking about this some more, and I changed my mind. It seems more likely that the mafia wants us to suspect you, which is why they chose mccrisanth, who was otherwise innocuous: she suspected you. The mafia kills mccrissanth, so then we kill you-- maybe that's the plan.

So ok.

With that in mind, I find it suspicious that Hephaestus immediately voted against Madrigal. He's wrong that Madrigal led us down the wrong path repeatedly-- that's a groundless accusation. She was one of the first people to suspect ES. That's a nonsensical reason for voting against Madrigal.

Blorg
01-10-2014, 11:42 PM
New list:

Dirac
Hephaestus
Randall

Madrigal
01-10-2014, 11:42 PM
^I was actually thinking about this some more, and I changed my mind. It seems more likely that the mafia wants us to suspect you, which is why they chose mccrisanth, who was otherwise innocuous: she suspected you. The mafia kills mccrissanth, so then we kill you-- maybe that's the plan.

So ok.

With that in mind, I find it suspicious that Hephaestus immediately voted against Madrigal. He's wrong that Madrigal led us down the wrong path repeatedly-- that's a groundless accusation. She was one of the first people to suspect ES. That's a nonsensical reason for voting against Madrigal.

I thought I was up next to be killed by the mafia. I overzealosuly skipped reading to post my suspects before I was dead. That's all it boils down to. I wouldn't do that on purpose, it obviously made you suspect me and I have no interest in coming across as a sloppy townie either. Nothing good can come of that.

And accusing me was another thing that only cemented my suspicions of Logan. I thought that if he was innocent, he'd know I'm innocent because I had just supported the ES lynch, and he'd try to reason with me. He didn't do that, and that was a mistake. It's a far-fetched assumption that the mafia is going to try to exploit now. Heph is doing this. If he put things in their correct proportion, he'd grant more weight to my lynching of ES than my error with Logan - Logan was everyone's suspect, not just mine. Calling me mafia sounds desperate. It's a crazier idea than Logan being a special mafia. If they are doing what I believe they are doing, they'll hope the townies lynch me while they continue their search of special roles.

Works
01-11-2014, 12:55 AM
Heph

He was the one who most justified the Logan lynch when Sage was on the chopping block.

Only Jollybard and chobani ended up with him accusing Logan. There was sure to be a mafia among the three. We know one mafia voted Works (Ethereal), and that at least one hid behind the ES lynch. The one behind ES will be harder to figure out than the one who backed the Logan lynch. Therefore, Hephy it is for me.

You forget that Light Leak switched only after we had the majority and she offered to switch if we needed more of a buffer. Not a very effective or convincing vote.

Hephaestus
Light Leak
Chobani
Randall

I see Randall's name pop up on a lot of lists, but I think we keep dismissing him because of the brighter flags other people are throwing.

Madrigal
01-11-2014, 01:10 AM
New list:

Dirac
Hephaestus
Randall

I find this puzzling. Your shortlist includes two lynchers of Sage (a proven mafia) and only one lyncher of Logan (a proven townie). This math isn't adding up. You don't agree it's going to be much easier to find one mafia among Logan's lynchers than among ES's lynchers?

Light Leak
01-11-2014, 01:17 AM
I'm trying to put together my list so I'm just starting with my thoughts on everyone for now:

chobani - screams townie. I can't find any reason to suspect her.

Dirac - He was my top suspect last round after LowIQLogan. I still cannot wrap my head around why he placed the vote for Etherealsage in round 2 that created the tie between Sage and Logan. Everyone else had already placed their votes so the only way to break the tie was for someone to switch. It makes no sense to me. If Dirac were mafia he would have voted for Logan, so I have to believe that he's not mafia.

Works -First to cast a vote for Etherealsage in round 2. Also, didn't switch during the tie. That would have been a convenient time to switch if he happened to be mafia and thought for some reason that people wouldn't really go for the Sage lynch. I have to believe that Works is not mafia as well.

Madrigal - Was pretty vocal about wanting to lynch Etherealsage in round 2. Stuck with Etherealsage during the tie problem. I have to believe that she's not mafia either. It's one thing for mafia to place votes for each other to try to blend in, but I can't see them being that vocal about wanting to do it.

Randall - Voted for Etherealsage fairly early in the round. Was posting while there was the tie between Etherealsage and LowIQ Logan. Randall even commented on what he thought would happen if it resulted in a tie. I find it hard to believe he's mafia as well.

I'm realizing that I've pretty much said the same thing for Works, Madrigal and Randall so maybe the mafia had a brilliant plan to hide one of their own in these three, but I doubt it. I guess that's something to think about.

It's dinnertime so I'll have to finish this later.

Blorg
01-11-2014, 01:30 AM
I find this puzzling. Your shortlist includes two lynchers of Sage (a proven mafia) and only one lyncher of Logan (a proven townie). This math isn't adding up. You don't agree it's going to be much easier to find one mafia among Logan's lynchers than among ES's lynchers?

I find my reasons for suspecting Dirac and Randall more compelling than the votes. Randall has only posted fluff, and minimal fluff at that. Dirac has alternated between panicky self-defense and silence (and some fluff responses as well). I don't find Jollybard or Light Leak as suspicious. I mean, JollyBard is close to replacing Randall for 3rd place, but he seems too crazy to be mafia. Also, he flip-flops a lot, so I feel like his votes are kind of random and it's pointless to suspect or not suspect him on the basis of his votes alone. I do suspect JollyBard, but I just suspect Randall more.

LowIQLogan was suspicious right from the start. He visited the thread and left without posting multiple times. I can't blame myself for suspecting him, so I think it would be unfair of me to suspect JollyBard or Light Leak for suspecting him.

Hephaestus I do find suspicious, mostly for other reasons (the Logan vote is frosting on the cake) and unless he says something really convincing, I think I'm going to stick to this vote for him (partly because I don't think enough people share my suspicion of Dirac).

Hephaestus

Works
01-11-2014, 01:34 AM
Hephaestus
Madrigal
Works
Chobani

Madrigal
Hephaestus

Hephaestus
01-11-2014, 01:35 AM
I'm willing to bet that's the hand of Heph.

Fitting your facts to suit your theory?


The accusation is ridiculous and I find it offensive that someone would think I'd start my supposed mafia career by killing a mafia. Etherealsage would never agree to such a thing. Try to picture that conversation. Seriously. You and me were the most adamant about lynching ES. That should afford us a aminimum of credibility.



You are not the obvious choice. But you are one of my prime suspects. If Etherealsage is mafia, and he gets lynched, I'll still suspect you. I will suspect you cannibalized Sage and that you might be the godfather. That's how much I suspect you. Especially since Etherealsage isn't targetting you himself, which I would do if anyone could rival my votes. Better them than me.

Funny how much credibility the idea has as long as it isn't you doing it?



Who cares who mccrissaneth suspected? She just popped up two or three times to fling random suspicions. Being suspected by someone popular on shortlists (until now) doesn't mean as much as you think it does.
Unless it's you suspecting someone based on shortlists.



I helped lynch ES and I made your shortlist for that stupid mistake? It doesn't make any sense, it's dispproportionate.
Earlier you agreed that there was probably at least one mafia in the lynch that killed ES. Now that you're under suspicion, it's impossible?



With that in mind, I find it suspicious that Hephaestus immediately voted against Madrigal. He's wrong that Madrigal led us down the wrong path repeatedly-- that's a groundless accusation. She was one of the first people to suspect ES. That's a nonsensical reason for voting against Madrigal.

She also lead the charge against Logan. She didn't cast the opening vote--too bold for mafia--but she did simultaneously inject Oso's list into the conversation and distance herself from it. But she wasn't shy about voting and making clear her intent to kill both Logan and ES regardless of the outcome of whichever lynch came first.

She was also against setting up a situation where the mafia might slide in and make a tie--even though allowing that to happen, while losing us a day, would have almost certainly netted us two obvious mafia. She may not have been on the frontlines, but can you seriously tell me she hasn't been bullying her way through every lynch after the first? If mccriss wasn't dead, she'd be leading a dogpile on her, and once she was townie, if I wasn't killed that night, we'd be right where we are now.




And accusing me was another thing that only cemented my suspicions of Logan. I thought that if he was innocent, he'd know I'm innocent because I had just supported the ES lynch, and he'd try to reason with me. He didn't do that, and that was a mistake. It's a far-fetched assumption that the mafia is going to try to exploit now. Heph is doing this. If he put things in their correct proportion, he'd grant more weight to my lynching of ES than my error with Logan - Logan was everyone's suspect, not just mine. Calling me mafia sounds desperate. It's a crazier idea than Logan being a special mafia. If they are doing what I believe they are doing, they'll hope the townies lynch me while they continue their search of special roles.

Funny how accusing someone who accused you is the townie thing, except when it isn't, and vice versae. It's almost as if there is no real logic being applied at all, people just say what they want until it points in the direction they want it to.



I'm really leaning towards Heph, too, because of his over-calculated style of playing. Never any fluff. Never "thinking aloud". What he said made sense, but I don't remember him saying something really exceptional.


Brilliant. The fluffmeister supreme who posts 90% fluff is suspicious of someone who avoids posting fluff? The greatest part of this is that none of that is true--I've posted fluff, and I've posted off the top of my head. Most of my posts were off the top of my head. As for not remembering me "saying something really exceptional"--tu quoque much? And I beg to differ. I spoke about P-O's behavior, regardless of how things turned out, it wasn't something pulled from other people's reasoning. In fact I'd wager most of my reasoning was on angles different than were already being flogged. Meanwhile, saying someone has said anything really exceptional is pulled straight from rhetoric over the last few days. It's like a group of people in the game had a meeting or a focus group where they brainstormed phrases to use persuade townies to lynch someone on vapor and nothing but fear they might be the next target if this lynch doesn't go through.

Which leads to the following observation:

Heph

He was the one who most justified the Logan lynch when Sage was on the chopping block.


Wow. Just wow. I'm suspicious because I had solid reasons behind voting for Logan on a day when everyone was just wandering after vague vapors? I'm suspicious because I aired my thinking--something JB thinks I didn't do--and did so with clarity of thought--which is suspicous: can't trust them thinkin' types (they're afflicted with demons!)

That's your opening salvo Maddy. And you've got some cronies matching tone. So who isn't leading things again chobani?

Getting lynched for being reasoned and rational. I think that pretty much says it all doesn't it? Thinking is apparently a crime in this town. You're right Jolly, you had a moment of genuine profundity: this game is like middle school.

Madrigal
01-11-2014, 01:39 AM
Hephy, before I go about reading your post thoroughly, please name three suspects. Not one. Three. With explanations.

Hephaestus
01-11-2014, 01:48 AM
Randall has only posted fluff, and minimal fluff at that.
No no! That's proof Randall is a townie!


Didn't get my list in. Was still in awe of the shammy...and I use this word under protest... arguments against me.

Madrigal


Jollybard: for being too perfect a noob. He doesn't post arguments, he posts 'gee whiz' and 'I'm such a noob' and 'What that guy said' and variations of ways to imply he's intoxicated, and that if he were mafia, he would post intoxicated. Clearly in Maddy's pocket, quickly buddied up when she vouched for him on the basis of his fumbling noobness. BUT, he also has said he's played mafia before, but as a live game. So what's with all the fumbles on things that would be the same between formats?


Dirac: Need a third, and I don't currently suspect anyone else more. It's really almost tie between him and Noir, but he edges out on evidence I've already decided is flimsy. Nonetheless, it colours my thinking.


Remember how on day one I told you that flip-flopping or not flip-flopping can work for or against you? Bingo, this is the scenario I was talking about. I'm being called out for not flip-flopping even though I did. I probably should have taken my own advice and voted for the person I most suspected, P-O. But as I said after the lynch: I didn't want to risk making that current lynch more divisive when it seemed clear that we had someone on the ropes.

Hephaestus
01-11-2014, 01:52 AM
Hephy, before I go about reading your post thoroughly, please name three suspects. Not one. Three. With explanations.
Queen Maddy, helping guide us all again. You all do realize how fucked you all are right?

Randall
01-11-2014, 02:09 AM
I've been toying with the idea that Madrigal and Jollybard are both mafia for awhile now, I think the mafia would be stupid to leave Madrigal alive this long, and at this point I doubt they are pulling some kind of double bluff. Although I'd rather vote for Jollybard at this point, I'm going to vote Madrigal, because I don't want to split the vote. (Unless you want to switch to Jollybard, Heph)


This ought to be interesting.

Randall
01-11-2014, 02:15 AM
Also, this round might be a good time for the detective/jack of all trades/whatever other investigative role there is to reveal what they know (unless there are rules against that?). It might be worth trading the detective for a mafia at this point.

Works
01-11-2014, 02:23 AM
I've been toying with the idea that Madrigal and Jollybard are both mafia for awhile now, I think the mafia would be stupid to leave Madrigal alive this long, and at this point I doubt they are pulling some kind of double bluff. Although I'd rather vote for Jollybard at this point, I'm going to vote Madrigal, because I don't want to split the vote. (Unless you want to switch to Jollybard, Heph)


This ought to be interesting.

Ok Randall, you've been mostly quiet. Now you're coming out of the woodwork to accuse Madrigal. You're also on a number of people's lists for lack of participation. Why speak up now of all times?

Works
01-11-2014, 02:24 AM
Hephaestus
Madrigal
Works
Chobani

Madrigal
Hephaestus
Randall

Madrigal
01-11-2014, 03:26 AM
She also lead the charge against Logan. She didn't cast the opening vote--too bold for mafia--but she did simultaneously inject Oso's list into the conversation and distance herself from it. But she wasn't shy about voting and making clear her intent to kill both Logan and ES regardless of the outcome of whichever lynch came first.

I did not, and still do not understand why the mafia killed Oso. Maybe they thought he was a special role too, in hindsight, since that seems to be their modus operandi. Oso pointed to LowIQLogan before he died. At first I dismissed the easy theory he pointed to a mafia and was killed. Here's where ES played a fast one on me: he created a three-way split instead of going for Logan. That led me to assume we had two mafias on the table. I wanted to get ES first because he was capable of bouncing back. Maybe if he had arrived earlier, he would have. We'd be in more trouble now if that had been the case. Only when it was getting quite late did I offer myself to break the tie. But first, I asked other people to do it. I asked that one Works lyncher and one Logan lyncher join the ES camp. This is what happened, but I was not about to let a tie occur, and stated so. This is not suspicious. It's common sense.


If mccriss wasn't dead, she'd be leading a dogpile on her

True. Thanks for that. You just couldn't resist, could you? What did you think she was? Vigilante? Detective?

Madrigal
01-11-2014, 03:37 AM
(Correction: P-O and Light leak from the Logan camp joined the ES camp.)

Light Leak
01-11-2014, 03:38 AM
Ok... continuing on with my thoughts on everyone.

Noir - I haven't had much of a reason to suspect him, except during round 2 when I thought he was possibly trying to convince people to change their vote to Works because Logan had more votes... and Noir and Logan were both mafia. Obviously, I was wrong about that. He seems like a townie to me, but I can't find anything that confirms that.

Jollybard - I've sort of ignored and written off as a townie, but I don't really have any evidence of that.

There's just one thing that I keep thinking about that Works posted in the first round. I think there may be something to this:



I'm willing to bet that most of the mafia are hiding in the Funguy vote. Think of voting for Funguy as trying to gain some herd immunity. Below are the people including myself who voted for him.

Hephaestus
EtherealSage
LowIQLogan
Osito Polar
Light Leak
works
chobani
Madrigal
Dirac
P-O
Noir

It would be way too convenient for all the Mafia to be in that one group, even if being an outlier is potentially dangerous. So most likely a third or fourth mafia member voted independently. Below are the people who voted otherwise:

Randall who voted for Oso
mccrissanth who voted for Dirac
Jollybard who voted for chobani


Notice the people who didn't vote for md5. Mccrissanth was a townie. That leaves Randall and JollyBard. If one of the two is mafia, I'd say it's more likely JollyBard.

This leaves Heph...

Light Leak
01-11-2014, 03:57 AM
Heph:

In round 2 Heph is the first to place a vote. He votes for mccrissanth.

Works votes Etherealsage.
P-O votes LowIQLogan.
Jollybard votes Noir.

Heph then switches to LowIQLogan, with a valid reason. His evidence was wrong about mccrissanth. Maybe this is true, but it can also be viewed that he switched to try to get more people on board with voting for Logan... who we all know is a townie.

Madrigal votes Etherealsage. Now Logan and Sage both have two votes.

Voting continues for awhile to a point when Logan has 5 votes and Etherealsage has 3. At this point Heph switches to P-O, but Logan is still in the lead.

Voting continues some more until Logan places a vote for Etherealsage. Logan and Etherealsage are now tied. What does Heph do? He switches back to Logan, putting Logan back in the lead.

I have to admit this looks very suspicious.

Light Leak
01-11-2014, 04:07 AM
I've been toying with the idea that Madrigal and Jollybard are both mafia for awhile now, I think the mafia would be stupid to leave Madrigal alive this long, and at this point I doubt they are pulling some kind of double bluff. Although I'd rather vote for Jollybard at this point, I'm going to vote Madrigal, because I don't want to split the vote. (Unless you want to switch to Jollybard, Heph)

Randall can you tell us more about your Madrigal/Jollybard theory?

Madrigal
01-11-2014, 04:14 AM
Queen Maddy, helping guide us all again. You all do realize how fucked you all are right?

Like Works said. I was right once. You were never right. Technically I have 1 point and you have 0. You're good at math, this shouldn't be too hard.


I've been toying with the idea that Madrigal and Jollybard are both mafia for awhile now, I think the mafia would be stupid to leave Madrigal alive this long, and at this point I doubt they are pulling some kind of double bluff. Although I'd rather vote for Jollybard at this point, I'm going to vote Madrigal, because I don't want to split the vote. (Unless you want to switch to Jollybard, Heph)


This ought to be interesting.

Randall, the mafia left me alive because I was going for Logan next. There's no mystery there. Also, they're trying to take down the specials. And you don't pop up to post very often but now you suddenly have a theory about me and Jollybard. If I was mafia I already would have asked Jollybard to stop bouncing around so much. You're not really confounding me anymore, just so you know.

Light Leak
01-11-2014, 04:16 AM
^I was actually thinking about this some more, and I changed my mind. It seems more likely that the mafia wants us to suspect you, which is why they chose mccrisanth, who was otherwise innocuous: she suspected you. The mafia kills mccrissanth, so then we kill you-- maybe that's the plan.

This doesn't make sense to me. If the mafia wanted us to suspect Madrigal, then why would they kill someone that did? Wouldn't they want to leave mccrissanth in hopes that she would convince everyone else... and then maybe kill off someone who seemed less likely to be convinced?

JollyBard
01-11-2014, 04:58 AM
This doesn't make sense to me. If the mafia wanted us to suspect Madrigal, then why would they kill someone that did? Wouldn't they want to leave mccrissanth in hopes that she would convince everyone else... and then maybe kill off someone who seemed less likely to be convinced?

Because that was exactly their strategy? Killing her and then accusing Madrigal.

Heph has started using a connotated vocabulary for expressing his suspicions and ideas. He's suddenly appealing to emotions and paranoia, calling Madrigal a sadist on multiple occasions.

And that's brilliant. If I were mafia, that's exactly what I'd be doing: attacking one of the most trusted and vocal players and try to make the townies resent her for leading them on. I would love it if Maddie was mafia. It would be awesome. I'd like to say she's able to vomit this much credible bullshit, to use pseudo-rational thoughts to lead our collective Ti. But it'd be a bit too awesome. I've already given a similar speech, I know, but my reasons for believing she's a simple townie haven't changed.

I don't think Hephaestus is the kind of guy normally resorts to pathos (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pathos), so the sudden change to a spanish Inquisition kind of speech is extremely unsettling.

I'm voting for Hephaestus.

Light Leak
01-11-2014, 05:14 AM
I think either Heph or Madrigal have to be mafia. They can both be very convincing. Honestly, I had a hard time understanding the accusations against Hephaestus at the beginning of this round. They seemed pretty weak to me. I did find some suspicious evidence when I searched for it. I'm interested in hearing what Heph has to say about it.

I've been watching this round unfold. Madrigal accuses Hephaestus and everyone else just seems to follow. It happened last round too. Chobani didn't even have Heph on her original short list... but she was easily convinced to vote for Heph. I'm having trouble with this because Madrigal voted for Etherealsage. She had a chance to switch to Logan, but she didn't. Why would mafia do that? She keeps pointing out that this should prove that she's a townie. Logically that seems true. I don't know. It just seems that I'm missing something. Something doesn't seem right.

My short list:
Hephaestus
Madrigal
JollyBard

Others, in order of suspicion:
Noir
Dirac
chobani
Works
Randall

Madrigal
01-11-2014, 05:24 AM
You too? Light Leak, how can I be your second highest suspect if I promoted the ES lynch? A mafia will not kill a mafia if it's not even necessary. There were other big suspects besides ES. If I'm as influential as you say I am, wouldn't I have taken the heat off ES instead of jumping on him from the beginning and sticking with him? Isn't this reasoning kind of ridiculous? I mean, blatantly? How can I be your second highest suspect?

You don't bold your vote. Why?

Light Leak
01-11-2014, 05:25 AM
I'm going to go ahead and place my vote for Hephaestus for now.

Madrigal
01-11-2014, 05:32 AM
Hephaestus
Madrigal
Works
Chobani
Jollybard
Light Leak

Madrigal
Hephaestus
Randall

Light Leak
01-11-2014, 05:33 AM
How can I be your second highest suspect?

Some of Heph's arguments are kind of convincing so if he turns out to be innocent then I'll probably be looking at you. If he's mafia, then I won't believe it anymore. I guess I can make a different shortlist and just pretend that Heph's definitely mafia for now. You wouldn't be on that list.

Light Leak
01-11-2014, 05:38 AM
^
I realize this is probably pretty dumb. I'm trusting that my top suspect's arguments may be true. I thought Logan had some good arguments too, but ignored them because everyone voted to lynch him... look what happened there.

Madrigal
01-11-2014, 05:40 AM
^
I realize this is probably pretty dumb. I'm trusting that my top suspect's arguments may be true. I thought Logan had some good arguments too, but ignored them because everyone voted to lynch him... look what happened there.

The only thing that rattled my brain about Logan was how many suspects he listed in his last defense. It was so unpolitical he was practically begging to be lynched by them. WTF. Then he made me his prime suspect. None of it made any sense.

Madrigal
01-11-2014, 05:54 AM
I don't think Hephaestus is the kind of guy normally resorts to pathos (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pathos), so the sudden change to a spanish Inquisition kind of speech is extremely unsettling.

I'm voting for Hephaestus.

I was gonna say the same thing. Heph changed his tone, that took me by surprise.

Kyuri
01-11-2014, 07:12 AM
Madrigal has been killed! She was the Town Cop. Same killer who did Polemarch in in Day phase 2. Once every night, the Cop can check a player's alignment.

Hephaestus
01-11-2014, 07:35 AM
I don't think Hephaestus is the kind of guy normally resorts to pathos (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pathos), so the sudden change to a spanish Inquisition kind of speech is extremely unsettling.


Do you see your double-dealing yet? Heph's too controlled, too careful: must be mafia. Heph's up to be killed and he's too passionate. He must be mafia.

How convenient for you to live in a world where all the facts can be turned to suit the theory you desire.

I've always been passionate about bad reasoning. Look at how I turned on P-O. To be honest, he was the one who caused me to realize the name for what had been bugging me: the sadism he and Maddy both were using. Look at how they interact when they've got someone locked tight. Look at the tone when they set up the "kill 'em both" scenario. Look at Maddy's response to Kyuri's offer to end Logan's death early. She wants it drawn out even though it's obvious to everyone that no more information is going to be forthcoming. No one is talking, no one is debating. We're all just sitting on him until nightfall. And if she says anything, it's taunting in nature. Even Logan remarked on it asking why she was so much more excited to kill him--and she gave a cruel and twisted reply: "I like you more".

The conceit of pretending to use reasoning to condemn is personally offensive to me. What does an INTP do when their inner nature is crossed? They attack. So I attacked this fake double-mouthed reasoning and exposed it for what it is. You should have been suspicious if I didn't go on the assault when faced with such crap. It's better to be taken out randomly than on obviously disingenuous reasoning where the conclusion is presupposed before the evidence is gathered.


I think either Heph or Madrigal have to be mafia. They can both be very convincing. Honestly, I had a hard time understanding the accusations against Hephaestus at the beginning of this round. They seemed pretty weak to me. I did find some suspicious evidence when I searched for it. I'm interested in hearing what Heph has to say about it.

I addressed it. I've addressed it several times now. I didn't want my accusation of P-O to be the thing that caused the voting to be screwed up when it seemed we had someone for sure. At the time I voted for Logan, he was the person I had the next strongest suspicion about, the reasons for which I detailed--both times I voted for him. I didn't vote for EtherialSage because he was a blind spot to me. I felt there was too much emphasis on who he'd been in previous games--and I couldn't sort out the cognitive dissonance--but I also knew it really didn't matter because we were going to kill both of them regardless of what the results of either lynch was. It had already been directed and no one objected.

Hephaestus
01-11-2014, 07:38 AM
She was the cop? She was worse than Ryan then. Why did she insist on killing Logan when she could have checked him? Oh, right, Godfather. Why did she plan on killing mccriss today? Oh, must have been a Godfather. No doubt the same reason she's coming after me.

Hephaestus
01-11-2014, 07:40 AM
Not that we even know she investigated me, or what she found, we just know she had opportunity to investigate people and still charged after townies.

Noir
01-11-2014, 08:05 AM
Well our favorite Day Time killer may be a lousy shot, but he did just basically out you Heph. I don't think Maddy would have been gunnin' for you that hard if you weren't confirmed Mafia.

Hephaestus

Hephaestus
01-11-2014, 08:07 AM
Really? Did you see how hard she gunned for Logan?

Randall
01-11-2014, 11:40 AM
Fuck, I have to leave for work now. I guess I'll throw down a vote for Dirac. I'll probably change it when I get home though.

Blorg
01-11-2014, 01:38 PM
I think this is right

Hephaestus
Works
Chobani
Jollybard
Light Leak
Noir

Dirac
Randall

Works
01-11-2014, 01:45 PM
Also, this round might be a good time for the detective/jack of all trades/whatever other investigative role there is to reveal what they know (unless there are rules against that?). It might be worth trading the detective for a mafia at this point.


Madrigal has been killed! She was the Town Cop. Same killer who did Polemarch in in Day phase 2. Once every night, the Cop can check a player's alignment.


Fuck, I have to leave for work now. I guess I'll throw down a vote for Dirac. I'll probably change it when I get home though.

Ok dude, you are either Mafia which would explain why you were working with Heph, or the serial killer and have no allegiances. You ask for the detective to reveal their role and what they know because it's worth trading a special for a Mafia. Madrigal then gets killed right after she accuses Heph, which reveals her as the detective. I think that justifies killing Heph. However, you don't vote for Heph, you vote for Diarc who, don't get me wrong, is rising in my suspicions because of his inaction.

Why not vote for Heph? It's really fishy when you don't follow your own advice.

Light Leak
01-11-2014, 02:26 PM
I addressed it. I've addressed it several times now. I didn't want my accusation of P-O to be the thing that caused the voting to be screwed up when it seemed we had someone for sure. At the time I voted for Logan, he was the person I had the next strongest suspicion about, the reasons for which I detailed--both times I voted for him. I didn't vote for EtherialSage because he was a blind spot to me. I felt there was too much emphasis on who he'd been in previous games--and I couldn't sort out the cognitive dissonance--but I also knew it really didn't matter because we were going to kill both of them regardless of what the results of either lynch was. It had already been directed and no one objected.

Hmmm... that seems plausible, but well if this is true then it's just really unfortunate timing switching votes on your part. It also looks like you could have been switching votes in an attempt to prevent Etherealsage from being lynched. Since Madrigal was the cop, I'm going to have to trust that she had some info that I don't. Plus there's not much to go on with anyone else right now. It seems most logical to lynch you right now... sorry.

Dirac
01-11-2014, 06:25 PM
Holy crap have I missed a lot. Feel the need to explain my absence - been at a physics conference in Edinburgh which has had me pretty busy. All hell has broken loose here. Well, it feels like that when you haven't been following and so much has happened. Provisionally I'm putting my vote for Heph because the detective was gunning so hard for him. I know, I know, Logan was townie - this is a provisional vote until i've checked all the evidence. Lots of reading!

Hephaestus
01-11-2014, 09:19 PM
Hmmm... that seems plausible, but well if this is true then it's just really unfortunate timing switching votes on your part. It also looks like you could have been switching votes in an attempt to prevent Etherealsage from being lynched. Since Madrigal was the cop, I'm going to have to trust that she had some info that I don't. Plus there's not much to go on with anyone else right now. It seems most logical to lynch you right now... sorry.
At least you are lynching me with valid reasoning.

Noir too, is playing a valid hunch. Can't fault him for that.

Dirac
01-11-2014, 09:32 PM
OK so some thoughts. I think Hephaestus straight-A definitely mafia. I believe that Heph is mafia and the reason Maddy started this round going for him so hard is that she investigated him and found him out last night.

Hephaestus - definitely mafia
Works - Early posting for ES saves him for me. He may be killed soon. I don't know why he hasn't died already tbh.
Randall - Can't get a read on him tbh, although he did vote for ES in day 2 which I suppose is a tick of sorts. His lack of posts is making it difficult.
Noir - Seems to offering decent analysis and is fairly think-out-loud/seat of the pants.
Light Leak - I've been suspicious of her in the past, but she has voted for ES and Heph, so I'm saying townie
JollyBard - Leaning townie because he's leaning Heph. Also, such noobiness means he's always seemed townie-y.
chobani - I always assumed townie but she seems to be slipping a bit. Voting records seem like one of the best ways to spot the mafia and she seems to be discounted them for some reason. Also, she has a weird obsession with seeing me killed. She is voting for Heph though. I dunno.

I don't know how many mafia there are, but there must be more than two. That means at least one of the other people are mafia. Also one is the killer. Randall not voting for Heph is a big big negative for me so he is going to have to go top of that list.

Now, what about the serial killer? This one is pretty baffling and hard to spot. Just going with people who's alignment seems hard to understand my suspects are:

Randall
JollyBard
chobani

But tbh these are just pretty crap hunches.

Just on the off chance, has anyone made and notes/spreadsheets? I want to have better data, and they exist now but I just can't be bothered to trawl through all the posts looking for vote records/suspect lists.

Blorg
01-11-2014, 10:27 PM
chobani - I always assumed townie but she seems to be slipping a bit. Voting records seem like one of the best ways to spot the mafia and she seems to be discounted them for some reason. Also, she has a weird obsession with seeing me killed. She is voting for Heph though. I dunno.

just to clarify, I never discounted voting records. Also, I don't think you always assumed I was a townie, because you voted against me on the first day.

Dirac
01-11-2014, 10:32 PM
just to clarify, I never discounted voting records. Also, I don't think you always assumed I was a townie, because you voted against me on the first day.

I thought you were a liability on that first day. As somebody else put it, you were "starting fires" and I didn't think you were useful. Also, this was before I properly realised the nature of this game, and was looking out for myself too much.


Look, I'm with you - I'd rather not kill chobani - but she is kind of forcing my hand right now.

That's how I felt.

Works
01-11-2014, 10:37 PM
Hephaestus
Works
Chobani
Jollybard
Light Leak
Noir
Dirac

Dirac
Randall

No vote
Hephaestus

Light Leak
01-11-2014, 11:44 PM
Voting History Chart

Numbers are the order votes were placed for a particular person. They do not necessarily reflect the actual ending numbers of votes due to switching.




Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4 (as of now)


Osito Polar (townie) mafia kill
Madrigal 1/Dirac 1/md5fungi 4
dead
dead
dead


Madrigal (town cop) mystery killer
md5fungi 6
ES 2
Logan 2
Heph 1 / Dead


Hephaestus
md5fungi 1
mccrissanth 1/ Logan 2/
P-O/ Logan 6
Logan 7
no vote


md5fungi (townie) lynched
no vote
dead
dead
dead


mccrissanth (vanilla townie) mafia kill
Dirac 3
Works 2
Logan 10
dead


Randall
Osito Polar
ES 3
Logan 6
Dirac


Polemarch (townie) mystery killer
md5fungi 12
dead
dead
dead


Dirac
chobani 3/md5fungi 9
ES 5
Logan 3
Heph 7


Light Leak
md5fungi 5
Logan 5/ ES 8
Logan 8
Heph 5


JollyBard
chobani 2
Noir 1/ Logan 4/
ES 6/ LowIQLogan 8
Logan 1
Heph 4


chobani
Madrigal 2/Dirac 2/md5fungi 8
Logan 3/ Dirac/
Logan 7
Logan 5
Heph 3


Noir
chobani 1/md5fungi 10
Works 1
Logan 4
Heph 6


LowIQLogan
md5fungi 3
ES 4
Madrigal
dead


Works
md5fungi 7
ES1
Logan 9
Heph 2


P-O (jailer) mafia kill
md5fungi 11
Logan 1/ ES 7
dead
dead


Etherealsage (mafia) lynched
md5fungi 2
Works 3/ Logan 9
dead
dead

Dirac
01-11-2014, 11:53 PM
Perfect, this is awesome.

Dirac
01-12-2014, 12:31 AM
Ok so here are my current thoughts. Hephaestus is mafia and we will get him this round so I'm only going to look at the others.

I view voting ES and not switching gives somebody a lot of credit, the earlier the vote the more the trust. For that reason I trust Works especially, and I also trust Randall. At least, I trust that they aren't mafia - for now I'm not thinking about the serial killer. ES had Randall as one of his top suspects on the second day which might count in Randall's favour too. So these players are not currently mafia suspects for me. I'm also trusting LightLeak at this point because she broke the logan/ES deadlock by voting for ES. I have no idea why a mafia would do that.


Works
Randall
LightLeak
Noir
JollyBard
chobani



Ok so next up: Noir. It's hard to get a read on him but his accusation of Works offers some insight. It doesn't seem like something the mafia would do, to accuse Works straight out, and not switch to Logan when doing so might have saved ES. I think that any mafia in that round would have either hidden in the ES pile up, or voted for logan to save ES. For that reason I'll take Noir off too.

Works
Randall
LightLeak
Noir
JollyBard
chobani


This leaves me with something of a surprise - the noobs! Both of them flipflopped on the ES lynch and were in the vote for Logan which seems suspicious. I don't really know how to choose between them at the moment. Maybe they're even both mafia. God that would be a turn-up for the books.

Dirac
01-12-2014, 12:35 AM
Still can't figure out why the mafia killed mccrissanth either. If anyone has ideas please post them because I'm drawing a blank here.

Also we really need to try and keep the post rate, a lot of active members are gone and if we're not careful we'll just die of thirst.

Light Leak
01-12-2014, 12:40 AM
I'm also trusting LightLeak at this point because she broke the logan/ES deadlock by voting for ES. I have no idea why a mafia would do that.

P-O actually broke the deadlock. I switched so there would be a buffer vote in case mafia tried to switch votes at the last minute. I don't want to take credit that I don't deserve.

Dirac
01-12-2014, 12:43 AM
P-O actually broke the deadlock. I switched so there would be a buffer vote in case mafia tried to switch votes at the last minute. I don't want to take credit that I don't deserve.

Woops my bad. Does slightly diminish that point. I'm gonna stick with townie for you right now, but things might change obviously. Why would you point this out??

Light Leak
01-12-2014, 12:51 AM
Why would you point this out??

If I don't point it out, someone else might and try to use it as evidence against me. I may as well own up to it. Although it could still be used against me.

Dirac
01-12-2014, 12:54 AM
LightLeak, who are you suspecting apart from Heph? And any thoughts on the killer?

Light Leak
01-12-2014, 01:05 AM
^
I'm still not sure if the killer is a serial killer or a vigilante... or some other type of killer that I'm not thinking of.

My top 3 after Heph are:
JollyBard
chobani - (she was lower on my previous list, but looking back I'm noticing a lot of agreeing with everyone and following the popular votes. She did not vote for ES)
Noir

Light Leak
01-12-2014, 01:12 AM
Dirac, I'm curious. Why did you place that vote that caused the tie between Logan and Etherealsage?

Blorg
01-12-2014, 01:21 AM
I voted for md5fungi because everyone else was and there was nothing else to really go on at that point.

I voted for LowIQLogan because, come on, he was acting really suspiciously. He offered absolutely no defense and everyone can agree on this. I was sure he was mafia and I think everyone else was too. I felt like if I voted for ES, I would just be joining the herd for no valid reason. Madrigal probably discovered him because she was a detective; ES didn't do anything nearly as suspicious as LowIQLogan. I was going on the information I had, when I guess I should have been following along with the (seemingly unjustified) accusations of opinion-leaders.

Dirac started out accusing me without solid evidence to back up his accusations (he voted against me because I suspected him). Now he has evidence against me, even though I'm not mafia. Just make sure to vote for him if I get killed-- the mafia probably has more influence over opinions at this stage because so many townies have been killed, but the facts will be against him.


Also note that Dirac has been defended by both Hephaestus (more than once I think) and ES (implicitly).

Dirac
01-12-2014, 01:22 AM
Dirac, I'm curious. Why did you place that vote that caused the tie between Logan and Etherealsage?
It's pretty simple, I had been convinced that Etherealsage was mafia. There was one post in particular that swayed me which randall pointed out. The reasons I gave at the time were the genuine reason I had. This is what I said at the time (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/showthread.php?320-Anime-Mafia-Day-2&p=6369&viewfull=1#post6369).

Light Leak
01-12-2014, 01:24 AM
^
I guess my question is really did you realize that you were causing a tie?

Randall
01-12-2014, 01:25 AM
Why not vote for Heph? It's really fishy when you don't follow your own advice.
I wanted a vote in before I went into work (literally woke up, read the thread, then had to leave). I didn't want to vote for Heph without giving it a bit of thought, because he wasn't exactly ranking too high on my suspects list. I had to consider whose opinion I valued more -- my own, or Madrigal, with her town cop knowledge-- I have to say, it wasn't an easy decision.

I think Madrigal was a bit off her game this time, she was wrong about LowIQLogan, and she was wrong about me (I'm pretty sure she investigated me (because on day 2 she seemingly spontaneously backed off on accusing me, only a few mild accusations since that time) found that I was townie, and then shortly before she was killed, she seemed to have convinced herself that I was the mafia godfather. It's probably a bad idea to say "hey I think the detective thinks I'm mafia!", but from my point of view, it's important to note that the detective had access to information that the rest of us didn't, and she drew the wrong conclusions from that information.

I know it's arrogant to think I know better than Madrigal, but consider this:

-Heph and I are currently the only two people not voting for Heph
-there are probably 2 or 3 mafia remaining
-something isn't adding up. When we lynched EtherealSage, the vote was very close, and split multiple ways. every other lynching has been a landslide, because the mafia didn't need to do anything to get a townie killed, just like they're doing now.

This is enough to convince me that Heph is not mafia.

Currently thinking that Light Leak and Works are the most trustworthy (Light Leak moreso), so excluding myself and Heph, that leaves four people I can vote for: Dirac, JollyBard, chobani, and Noir. I'm assuming one of them is the serial killer (thinking maybe chobani. I have a note on my notepad file that says she might be the serial killer, but I didn't quote the fucking post that made me think that, so unless I remember, that "evidence" is useless), possibly one townie, and then two or three mafia. I'm going to give dirac a break since he helped kill EtherealSage. Which leaves Jollybard, Noir, and chobani. Of those three, I'd like Noir to see the noose first.



I am aware this post is a mess of thoughts, I wrote it as I thought it. Want clarification on something, ask.

Dirac
01-12-2014, 01:30 AM
Dirac started out accusing me without solid evidence to back up his accusations (he voted against me because I suspected him). Now he has evidence against me, even though I'm not mafia.
I explained my reasoning at the time, although tbh voting for you was wrong then, it wasn't just because you voted for me. You're still really bugged by that, huh?


Just make sure to vote for him if I get killed-- the mafia probably has more influence over opinions at this stage because so many townies have been killed, but the facts will be against him.
What facts? The fact that I voted for ES at a critical time? Why would a mafia player have done that? Honestly (and actually answer me) what do you think I was doing then? There were more logan voters, and I easily could have gone with him.


Also note that Dirac has been defended by both Hephaestus (more than once I think) and ES (implicitly).
When? (Not saying it didn't happen, but I don't recall it and am too lazy to search through :P)

Light Leak
01-12-2014, 01:33 AM
something isn't adding up. When we lynched EtherealSage, the vote was very close, and split multiple ways. every other lynching has been a landslide, because the mafia didn't need to do anything to get a townie killed, just like they're doing now.

I've been having this exact same thought. But I'm having a hard time finding strong evidence on anyone else.

Dirac
01-12-2014, 01:37 AM
^
I guess my question is really did you realize that you were causing a tie?
Tbh I don't even remember. I suspect I didn't realise or I would be able to remember it. Obviously as soon as you posted that it made it a tie I realised, but that would have been post-vote. But yeah, I don't really remember.



-something isn't adding up. When we lynched EtherealSage, the vote was very close, and split multiple ways. every other lynching has been a landslide, because the mafia didn't need to do anything to get a townie killed, just like they're doing now.

This is enough to convince me that Heph is not mafia.

Maddy was just revealed as the cop so this time things are a lot different than it was with ES. Nobody wants to dirty themselves by defending heph so he's being sacrificed. That's my take on what's happening anyway.

Randall
01-12-2014, 01:37 AM
I've been having this exact same thought. But I'm having a hard time finding strong evidence on anyone else.
Well, I'd be willing to vote for JollyBard, chobani, or Noir. I'm willing to work with you on those three, if you prefer one over the others.

Heph, you should probably weigh in on this as well.

Light Leak
01-12-2014, 01:41 AM
^ JollyBard would be my top choice. You had said you'd like to see Noir go first. Why is that?

Randall
01-12-2014, 01:53 AM
I think there is still a possibility that all of Jollybard's weird fluffy "omg I'm a noob" type posts are actually genuine. Unfortunately I can't figure out why I thought chobani was the serial killer, but I'm kind of trusting that my past self had a point (I'll try to read through her posts again to see if I can find what made me think it was her). The serial killer is not a good thing to have around, but there is a chance that the serial killer could kill a mafia member, so it might be slightly better to have around than an actual mafia. Lastly, Noir's vote for Works on Day 2 is what really seals it for me. It came at a time when there were already three candidates (Logan, ES, and Noir) who had been voted for. Throwing in a fourth seems to have been an effort by Noir to save himself and EtherealSage from getting lynched. He wanted the votes as split as possible so Logan would get lynched. It didn't work, and we killed ES, but I still think that's what he was doing with his vote for Works.

Dirac
01-12-2014, 01:56 AM
Lastly, Noir's vote for Works on Day 2 is what really seals it for me. It came at a time when there were already three candidates (Logan, ES, and Noir) who had been voted for. Throwing in a fourth seems to have been an effort by Noir to save himself and EtherealSage from getting lynched. He wanted the votes as split as possible so Logan would get lynched. It didn't work, and we killed ES, but I still think that's what he was doing with his vote for Works.
Hmm this is maybe an explanation for Noir's works vote that I couldn't see in my previous post about him, but if he was trying to get logan lynched, wouldn't he have just voted for logan?

Randall
01-12-2014, 02:05 AM
It's possible. I can only speculate why he didn't vote for Logan at that point, perhaps he wanted to give the quiet townies (such as myself and Logan), someone other than EtherealSage and Noir to vote for (as I hadn't expressed any interest in killing quiet townies at that point).

Light Leak
01-12-2014, 02:08 AM
I think there is still a possibility that all of Jollybard's weird fluffy "omg I'm a noob" type posts are actually genuine. Unfortunately I can't figure out why I thought chobani was the serial killer, but I'm kind of trusting that my past self had a point (I'll try to read through her posts again to see if I can find what made me think it was her). The serial killer is not a good thing to have around, but there is a chance that the serial killer could kill a mafia member, so it might be slightly better to have around than an actual mafia. Lastly, Noir's vote for Works on Day 2 is what really seals it for me. It came at a time when there were already three candidates (Logan, ES, and Noir) who had been voted for. Throwing in a fourth seems to have been an effort by Noir to save himself and EtherealSage from getting lynched. He wanted the votes as split as possible so Logan would get lynched. It didn't work, and we killed ES, but I still think that's what he was doing with his vote for Works.

Those are good points.

For JollyBard I was considering post history. Works made a pretty good point on day one that one mafia was likely hiding in the people who did not vote for md5fungi (you, mccrissanth, and JollyBard.) We know it's not mccrissanth. I don't think it's you either. That leaves JollyBard. Then on day 2 mafia votes may have been for Works or Logan. (Heph, mccrissanth, JollyBard, chobani, Noir).

That's two strikes for JollyBard in the voting history as I see it. Others only have one strike.

Randall
01-12-2014, 02:25 AM
K, I'd be willing to switch my vote to Jollybard if you want, I'm going to try to read through all of Noir's and JB's posts again, see what I can find.

Dirac
01-12-2014, 02:27 AM
I've got to go to bed now but before I do I've got to say that it is absolute madness not to vote for Heph. Don't get me wrong, I'm suspicious of JB too but we've got as close as we're gonna get to a confirmed mafia in Heph. This is just crazy.

Hephaestus
01-12-2014, 02:29 AM
Well, I'd be willing to vote for JollyBard, chobani, or Noir. I'm willing to work with you on those three, if you prefer one over the others.

Heph, you should probably weigh in on this as well.

I think JB makes the most solid candidate for serial killer. Her* posts show little care for who is or isn't mafia. Her posting style screams 'tourist' to me, which makes sense for a serial killer role: all they need is bodies that aren't theirs to pile up on the floor. How to avoid keeping your body from being among them? Do nothing to draw attention to yourself while making yourself as conspicuous as possible. To whit: post a ton of inoffensive fluff, and vote according to whim or wind.

You will appear active, incompetent, but useful. Townies won't be quickly inclined to lynch you because you don't ruffle feathers and you're voting. The mafia is unlikely to target you because you won't be a threat and seeing you die won't alarm anyone, so why bother? You'll be like a janitor--acknowledged but unobserved and ignored until it's too late.

Noir looks suspicious because there's a noob/not noob vibe to her. But her most suspicious behavior, trying to get the specials to work as a cabal, isn't something the SK is likely to care about. The SK literally doesn't care who has what role. All she cares about is that people other than her die. Noir is playing too deeply for that to fit. It could be great camouflage, but I'm not inclined to believe it is.

As for chobani--I've got no good reason to suspect her other than she shows up in the wrong places. Her behavior isn't alarming beyond that. It doesn't fit my...erh...profile.

I just realized I profiled a Serial Killer. I am absurdly happy about that.

*I know JB is a dude, I just realized why Kyuri was :banghead: about calling a dude a dude earlier. It's a bit late, but we're supposed to be anime schoolgirls.

Hephaestus
01-12-2014, 02:34 AM
My vote: Jollybard


Hephaestus
Works
Chobani
Jollybard
Light Leak
Noir
Dirac

Noir
Randall

JollyBard
Hephaestus

Randall
01-12-2014, 03:14 AM
Alright, Jollybard it is. I'm not sure we'll be able to get the votes we need to lynch him, but I'm sure as hell going to try.

Randall
01-12-2014, 03:15 AM
Hephaestus
Works
Chobani
Jollybard
Light Leak
Noir
Dirac



JollyBard
Hephaestus
Randall

Light Leak
01-12-2014, 04:45 AM
Switching to JollyBard.

Hephaestus
Works
Chobani
Jollybard
Noir
Dirac

JollyBard
Hephaestus
Randall
Light Leak

JollyBard
01-12-2014, 05:12 AM
So your reason for voting for me is that I act too noobish and that my voting history is suspicious?

I am a fluffy person in life. I don't enjoy being serious. I'm sure if you look at my posts outside of this subforum you'll find I don't write in a very different manner. I like hypotheses, I like irony, and I didn't choose this username for nothing (even though that was like 3 years ago).

I flip-flopped yesterday because I didn't want to have a tie, and wanted to lynch Logans. So I was really torn between the two. I wanted to get rid of Logan first because he was inactive; does him turning out to be townie really prove I am mafia? Maybe I was just wrong? I wasn't the only one voting for him, mind you. Anyway, I explained my reasons carefully. And I had a little fun rubbing it in his face that he was going to die. Why would I do that if I were mafia? Unless I was absolutely sure that people thought I was innocent (which I did, at the time; the whole "me being mafia" appeared so silly).

But then I could still be the serial killer... really? Look at the kills: Polemarch and Madrigal. How does THAT fit into my agenda? I never said anything for or against Polemarch and was convinced Maddie was townie, so why would I kill them? Unless, of course, I had it all planned before, but that's just not my style, not in this game, not in real life.

I had nothing to say, but figured it was best to be active than keep silent, so I messed around. I am a simple townie, so I didn't really have an agenda. Not yet, anyway.

And the "perfect noob" strategy isn't a good one for a mafia, for the exact reasons I'm being suspected: people catch on. The flip-flopping is suspicious. Although it would make for an interesting, ballsy move, I would never have done it if I were mafia.

I don't even see how I could be suspected. Anyone who's seen my posts in other subforum can see I'm just being myself.

Noir
01-12-2014, 08:03 AM
Guys, what the actual fuck? The Town Cop dies and that changes nothing for you? I thought we were all in agreement that taking out Maddy's top suspect made the most sense, given that none of us will ever actually know what she knew. It's Day 4, that means she would have had the opportunity to check out three different people—one per night. We have a higher confidence of Heph's guilt than we have had for anyone on any day thus far. I suspect the noobs too, I've said as much, but one thing at a fucking time!!! We lost a Townie and the Town Cop today, that's a major blow. If we don't take down another Mafia this turn, it's going to start affecting the vote, and I suspect it already has.

I honestly can't wrap my head around any defense of Heph at this point. I am highly suspicious of Randall now, and Light Leak's switch is totally baffling to me. Chobani, please do me a favor and don't tie things up. Kyuri has said previously that in the event of a tie, no one get's killed, and that's a missed opportunity for all of us. I'm going to trust Maddy on this one guys, and I think you should too.

Light Leak
01-12-2014, 03:14 PM
^
I'm actually more confused now - not confident.

On one hand Maddy suspected Heph and turned out to be the town cop. So we should trust that she had info that we did not and lynch Heph.

I'm having trouble with this though because we don't know whether or not she investigated Heph or not. She suspected Logan and he turned out to be a townie. I had no suspicion of Heph before this round so I found her accusations surprising. After going back and re-reading posts I found some of Heph's activity suspicious, but he has reasonable explanations for this activity.

On the other hand Randall is pretty much at the bottom of my suspect list and he's saying many of the things that I'm already thinking. Something here does not add up. I know I'm a townie. I'm pretty sure Randall is too. If two townies are thinking the same thing maybe there's something to that as well.

Of course then there's the possibility that both Heph and Randall are mafia, but that doesn't make sense because if that were true why would Randall not vote for Heph.

If nothing else, maybe some illuminating conversation will come from this.

JollyBard
01-12-2014, 04:05 PM
My current shortlist:

Heph
Randall
Light Leak
Noir

Kyuri
01-12-2014, 07:29 PM
Sorry for the lateness.

Day phase has ended! Hephaestus was lynched. He was a Mafia.

Night will last 12 hours or until I have all Night actions.[/QUOTE]

Works
01-12-2014, 07:41 PM
Two down! How's the dirt nap, Heph?

Dirac
01-12-2014, 07:42 PM
-something isn't adding up. When we lynched EtherealSage, the vote was very close, and split multiple ways. every other lynching has been a landslide, because the mafia didn't need to do anything to get a townie killed, just like they're doing now.


Does this seem weird to anyone else? Randall says that he thins Heph is not mafia because there is no struggle, then causes the struggle he says would be indicative of Heph's being mafia.

JollyBard
01-12-2014, 07:42 PM
I think I'm gonna get killed.

Dirac
01-12-2014, 07:45 PM
I think I'm gonna get killed.

Why?

JollyBard
01-12-2014, 07:48 PM
It's just a feeling. Heph was leading my lynching. I don't really have any associations anymore. By killing me, there would be nothing to analyse, except of course the others who voted for me... but I don't think they're necessarily mafia, since Heph was kind of convincing. If they're not mafia, it would be a great way to cast suspicion on them.

JollyBard
01-12-2014, 08:07 PM
Still alive:
Works
Chobani
Jollybard
Light Leak
Randall

Wow, this is getting tight! We're just five... We've already killed two, so that leaves only one or two mafia, most likely only one. There's also a serial killer on the loose.

I think we can all agree that the first people to vote for Hephaestus are probably innocent, since the only reason a mafia would vote for another mafia would be if they're dead certain he'd get killed anyway.

The first to vote were: Works, Chobani and me (and Madrigal). We're innocent. Light leak joined afterwards, when there was a majority. Randall voted for Madrigal with Heph. That makes him my top suspect. Noir then joined in, right after Maddie was killed, because he was persuaded by her role, which is a valid reason, but it does fit the "voting for someone when there's a majority", and he might have been waiting for a reason. I don't think he's the serial killer behind it, because he posted two hours after her death, which is a bit late.

After this, Randall throws a vote for Dirac... what? Why? Why not Heph? His guilt was obvious at this point, since Madrigal was the town cop and probably checked his identity before the turn, which is why she was "gunning" so hard for him. Randall reaffirms himself as a prime suspect, and Dirac as innocent.

So I think we should aim for Randall nect turn. I'm saying this right now because I'm afraid I'm going to get killed, since I'm suspected as the serial killer. As for that, well, I think chobani fits the bill, because she doesn't have any associations, and seems prone to errors of judgment... She might have genuinely thought Madrigal was mafia, having been swayed by Heph's rhetoric. Light Leak comes second as a mafia suspect, if there're two mafia left.

JollyBard
01-12-2014, 08:10 PM
For those who are wondering about why I'm suddenly not fluffy: this is getting serious and I have much more responsability, now that the (arguably) best players are out.

Works
01-12-2014, 08:13 PM
You forgot Noir and Dirac...

Dirac
01-12-2014, 08:15 PM
You forgot Noir and Dirac...

Yeah dude wtf.

JollyBard
01-12-2014, 08:17 PM
Yeah dude wtf.

Oh. Well, that makes seven. I looked at the wrong list.

Blorg
01-12-2014, 08:28 PM
I explained my reasoning at the time, although tbh voting for you was wrong then, it wasn't just because you voted for me. You're still really bugged by that, huh?

(fyi, you're high on my suspect list, but there are also several other people high on my suspect list. After this round, you've fallen somewhat.)

When I stopped voting against you, you immediately changed your vote against me. Describing/analyzing evidence against people ("lighting fires," "forcing your hand" etc) isn't evidence in and of itself. There was evidence against you (weak evidence, ok, and I didn't end up voting for you), and I described it, and I shouldn't be accused just because of that.


What facts? The fact that I voted for ES at a critical time? Why would a mafia player have done that? Honestly (and actually answer me) what do you think I was doing then? There were more logan voters, and I easily could have gone with him.

I was referring to the facts that would emerge if I'm lynched. I wasn't talking about the facts that everyone already knows; I was talking about the insinuations/suspicions that would be proven false because of new facts. (just a dumb hypothetical thing, probably wasn't worth posting.)


When? (Not saying it didn't happen, but I don't recall it and am too lazy to search through :P)


Dirac (http://forums.intpcomplex.com/member.php?u=23): Not enough people are going to vote for you first round to get you killed anyway, so chill out. Being that panicky makes you look guilty, whereas you didn't before.

(in retrospect, this one seems like half-defense/half-offense)


I was going through the thread again to put together a current tally and noted my meandering thoughts had lead me down a garden path: Dirac is posting more than I'm giving him credit for. This is ironic because one of those posts was analysis I thought was pretty good.

this one. The analysis in the post he was referring to wasn't useful.


I'm assuming one of them is the serial killer (thinking maybe chobani. I have a note on my notepad file that says she might be the serial killer, but I didn't quote the fucking post that made me think that, so unless I remember, that "evidence" is useless)

I didn't even know there was a serial killer til recently (I've never played this game before so I don't know about all the special roles). And you can't just say "I think that there's evidence against her but idk." That's unfair-- it causes paranoia and I can't even defend myself because you didn't say what the supposed evidence was.


I've got to go to bed now but before I do I've got to say that it is absolute madness not to vote for Heph. Don't get me wrong, I'm suspicious of JB too but we've got as close as we're gonna get to a confirmed mafia in Heph. This is just crazy.

AGREED. This post puts you lower on my suspect list.



New list:
Randall
JollyBard
LightLeak

(I'm tired of writing-- will explain later)

Randall
01-12-2014, 08:37 PM
My list:

Noir
chobani
Jollybard

Noir takes top spot again, since Heph tried to get me to switch from Noir to Jollybard. Jollybard has fallen on my suspect list for the same reason.

JollyBard
01-12-2014, 08:56 PM
Looking at Light Leak's voting history chart, I think I'd be willing to suspect Noir. His votes are more suspicious than yours. You were thrid to vote ES on the second day, so I'm having a hard time seeing why you would do that if you were mafia. Your reason was that he implied you had a special ability.

Noir's voting history is strange. He was 10th to vote md5, he voted for Works on day two, Logan on day three and was 6th to vote for Heph on day four. So, for the only mafia he voted, he was in the last ones to do so. But I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because his posts don't seem suspicious to me, what with the whole "thinking aloud" thing. It's possible to just be wrong.

And btw, for Light Leak to make such a great graph, I'm willing to say he's innocent. That takes a lot of time and effort, and his voting history isn't that great either, so if he were mafia he would have thought twice before posting it. Though it might just be reverse psychology on his part... but I'm not willing to give him that much credit either.

Light Leak
01-12-2014, 10:19 PM
Dammit Heph, you fooled me.

Light Leak
01-12-2014, 10:45 PM
My current thoughts.

Mosly likely mafia suspects:
Noir - Didn't vote ES. Voted for Heph fairly late and I think Randall may be right about him voting works in an attempt to divert votes away from ES.
Jollybard - Didn't vote ES and voted Heph at a point where it was likely Heph would be lynched anyway.

Probably not mafia:
Chobani - Hasn't done anything suspicious. I also don't see any evidence to prove she's a townie.
Randall - Voted for ES fairly early on, and didn't switch during the whole tie issue.

Most likely townies because they voted for both ES and Heph:
Dirac
Works

JollyBard
01-12-2014, 10:54 PM
Jollybard - [..] voted Heph at a point where it was likely Heph would be lynched anyway.

I was only third to vote and it was still not perfectly clear that a majority was voting for him. Plus, I was busy that day.

The real turning point on Heph was Madrigal getting killed and turning out to be town cop. Before that, there was no way to be sure, and I still voted before it.

Light Leak
01-12-2014, 10:59 PM
^
Fair enough. You did vote before we knew Maddy was a town cop. My list stays in pretty much the same order though. I suspect you and chobani fairly equally.

Noir
01-13-2014, 12:42 AM
I don't understand this implicit trust of Randall. Look at this post:


I think Madrigal was a bit off her game this time, she was wrong about LowIQLogan, and she was wrong about me (I'm pretty sure she investigated me (because on day 2 she seemingly spontaneously backed off on accusing me, only a few mild accusations since that time) found that I was townie, and then shortly before she was killed, she seemed to have convinced herself that I was the mafia godfather. It's probably a bad idea to say "hey I think the detective thinks I'm mafia!", but from my point of view, it's important to note that the detective had access to information that the rest of us didn't, and she drew the wrong conclusions from that information.

He keeps putting an innocent sign around his neck like he didn't just try to get Maddy killed and defend Hephaestus! He emulates the same rhetorical tactics as Heph, saying Maddy was "off her game" and essentially deluded:

Exhibit A - The Godfather defense

She was the cop? She was worse than Ryan then. Why did she insist on killing Logan when she could have checked him? Oh, right, Godfather. Why did she plan on killing mccriss today? Oh, must have been a Godfather. No doubt the same reason she's coming after me.

Exhibit B The Ambiguity defense

Not that we even know she investigated me, or what she found, we just know she had opportunity to investigate people and still charged after townies.

Exhibit C The ES Vote defense

Works, Maddy, and Randall voted for ES right off the bat. I think that speaks strongly in their favor.


Agreed. Works and Madrigal, who are your top suspects now?

:lol:
We keep giving him credit for being one of the first to vote for ES, but let's all recall why he voted that way:


For now I am voting for Etherealsage. Based on this sentence he wrote about me being quiet:

But I'm not sure if he's really a mafia or if it's 'cause he's deliberately trying to stay out of sight for another reason.

Here he is all but saying that if I am a townie, then I have a special role. If ES is a townie, why the fuck would he make that mistake? It only helps the mafia to speculate who the townie special roles are. For example, if I thought Osito was the detective or vigilante, I would keep my fucking mouth shut about it, and try to redirect any suspicion that might fall on him. If Etherealsage is as good at mafia as people say, he wouldn't have made such a noob mistake if he was a townie.

What if Randall IS a special (namely, the Day Phase Killer), and his vote for ES was simple self-preservation? What if his reason for belittling Maddy was to obfuscate her suspicions of him? He was #2 on her list this morning.



Heph
Randall
Light Leak