US presidential campaign

**Roger Mexico** · 04-13-2015, 01:50 AM

Eh, well it seems to be That Time Again, Kids.

Figured I'd just start the thread for general commentary and news.

Seems we've got two official entrants on the Republican side:

Ted Cruz--not someone whose name I knew before the possibility of a presidential run came up, in all honesty. At the moment I don't have much to say about him or his chances.

Rand Paul--well, now this is interesting. I didn't honestly expect him to run. Strikes me as a Wild Card: divisive within his own party and with a history of being kind of a pain in the ass to its more established leaders, but potentially appealing to Independents and some other people who are not traditional party-line Republican voters. I wouldn't estimate his chances as very good--I mean, Romney was a divisive figure within the party but had the clear support of its "Establishment", and look where that got him. Still, I have personally come to see Rand Paul as something of a lovable goofball who believes in some kind of nutty things (listing longstanding federal departments you'd want to completely abolish doesn't really mark you as a seasoned realist) but sometimes makes headlines pulling stunts that I find entertaining. Thus I now have a kind of piqued curiosity to see just how far this little outing of his is going to get.

One Democratic entrant, as of this morning:

Hillary Clinton--I know she's polling very well among Democratic primary voters, enough so that there isn't exactly a long line of people champing at the bit to go up against her. On the other hand, I want to say that nominating the person who lost a primary against your last general election winner (especially when that person is the outgoing two-term president) probably tends to be a low-percentage shot. I mean, look what happened to McCain. I don't think the electorate likes it when you try to serve them the last round's runner-up as leftovers.

I don't even know who else could be described as in the offing for a potential run. Brian Schweitzer (governor of Montana) officially bowed out a long time ago. There was some muttering about Jim Webb (former Navy Secretary and former senator from Virginia)--I guess Wikipedia says he's "Formally Exploring a Candidacy." Same with Biden. Neither of them has been too vocal about it.

So it seems like a sparse field on the Dem side.

But I suppose these things remain to be seen.

**Fitz** · 04-13-2015, 02:05 AM

I'd rather vote for Sanders or Warren but it looks like Hillary will have to do. Though I do kinda have a sick desire to see Rand Paul win.

**MoneyJungle** · 04-13-2015, 02:07 AM

I figure if I expend all my effort into not paying attention to this thing I'll still be more informed than the majority of voters as I hold my nose and vote for someone who I will keep to myself.

**TeresaJ** · 04-13-2015, 02:15 AM

The most I expect from any politician is to at least limit the amount of widescale physical, environmental, and economic carnage that they will inevitably commit. The US political system in particular is broken. That said, I still prefer a Democrat in office to a Republican. The same way I'd prefer to deal with the good cop vs the bad cop or Mussolini rather than Hitler.

Originally Posted by Roger Mexico

I don't think the electorate likes it when you try to serve them the last round's runner-up as leftovers.

Speaking personally, I did favor Obama over Clinton, but it wasn't by a lot. For what little difference it makes, I don't at all see H as leftovers - more like she's just next in line. It's her turn. I think she'll do a decent (?) oh no that's not the right word... respectable? No... I'll think she'll do the job as adequately as any other established politician, with an ever so slight edge. She has experience. She has connections. She has a slightly semi-progressive stance.

I'm looking forward to at least another four years of not cringing every single time I hear the President speak. That's all I ask.

**Roger Mexico** · 04-13-2015, 03:35 AM

Originally Posted by ent

I'd rather vote for Sanders or Warren but it looks like Hillary will have to do. Though I do kinda have a sick desire to see Rand Paul win.

I think he could make things interesting, although as I said I don't think that train has a very long track ahead of it.

I'm enjoying watching the Democratic spin machine crank up in response to his candidacy, since some of the more well-worn tactics aren't likely to work as well on him.

I just want to see them try calling the guy a racist when he's basically already outflanking them to the left on issues like the Drug War--not that it won't work, but seeing them dance around their own positions on the subject after flinging out that accusation should be kinda fun to watch.

**Sir Caveat** · 04-13-2015, 03:41 AM

Rubio's announcing tomorrow. He has a tax plan that's a bit unorthodox for Republicans in calling for a top personal income rate of 35%, but which has some support among conservative pundits.

**C.J.Woolf** · 04-13-2015, 03:42 AM

My takes:

Cruz is not in it to win it; he's too extreme. He's the self-appointed Tea Party orthodoxy police, whose function is to pull the other candidates to the right. Which is to say, he will pressure GOP candidates into making promises they will have to explain away or sweep under the rug in the general election campaign, thus continuing Cruz's campaign to alienate everyone in Washington.

Paul: Beats me if he thinks he has a realistic shot. He might be running a vanity campaign like Cruz, or a combined vanity/moneymaking campaign like Newt Gingrich did in 2012. One can make a comfortable living riding the wingnut gravy train. Some can ride it by merely talking about running for president (Sarah Palin); others have to actually run.

Clinton: I'd vote for her in the general election, but damn I wish some other Democrats would run. She made some really bad hires for her 2008 campaign, people who didn't even know the rules of how convention delegates were awarded (thus conceding that part of the playing field to Obama, whose campaign staff did know the rules). Hillary's people created a lot of infighting and drama to boot. Compare to "No-drama" Obama.

Fuck, I wish I could vote for Obama again.