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Thread: Lead-up to WW3

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    Lead-up to WW3

    What do you guys think the motive is behind Sepp Blatter's removal from FIFA?

    I know it's about denying Putin his PR moment in 2018... so he doesn't get a platform for showing that he isn't actually Hitler and that his country isn't actually suffering. But what is the tacting behind the pressure? Surely they can't be so foolish as to think they can spin the removal of the world cup into the UK... and get away with it?

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    Minister of Love Roger Mexico's Avatar
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    Is this about that game in Afghanistan where they play polo with a headless goat carcass?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ptah View Post
    No history, no exposition, no anecdote or argument changes the invariant: we are all human beings, and some humans are idiots.

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    No. It's about geo-politics. I don't see any threads that deal with the over-arching strategy.

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    Minister of Love Roger Mexico's Avatar
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    Whose over-arching strategy?

    Putin's?

    Putin fits well into a certain tradition of Russian leaders being hard-headed cynical realists who don't bother much with pretending they're out to do anything but promote their own country's short-to-medium term interests. (I can only imagine that's why, by all accounts, he remains quite popular in Russia despite facing a large and relatively vocal opposition from time to time.)

    I guess I'm just not seeing what his objectives are supposed to be beyond that--what would he gain from starting World War 3? He's a huge dick, obviously, but I can generally see where he's coming from with most of his more controversial recent decisions. He's sitting on top of a huge country, packed with plenty of natural resources (not to mention fucking nuclear bombs), which was an almost unparalleled (as in paralleled by only one other country) global power a scant few decades before he took over. The bloc that opposed Russia in the Cold War wants Russia to accept the narrative that they've faded from their former role and are now a marginal backwater that should just accept incorporation into the New World Order on terms dictated by their former enemies, but that plan really does require the Russians themselves to play nice and avoid pointing out the proverbial "turd in the punch bowl" that their state, which was a global power for centuries even before Lenin and Stalin cleared out the ossified political structures delaying its modernization, has remained largely intact and thus has the same basic geopolitical cards to play that it always had.

    Look at any situation from Ukraine to Syria and you're mostly seeing cases where some tendril of the NATO/etc alliance is trying to move in and nonchalantly piss on all the trees of what they think is an old Soviet client regime that is now orphaned and rightfully theirs under the terms of their assumed victory in 1991. The moves portrayed in Western media as Putin getting aggressive are really more like him saying "Hey, no. Did you guys forget about us? Well, that sucks for you, because we're still here, and I can still make one phone call that turns your whole country into a radioactive moonscape, which means as long as I act like I'm willing to fight you over any particular piece of turf, you can't call my bluff. Therefore, here's what's going to happen. I am going to remind everyone that they don't necessarily have to take your shit if they'd consider taking our shit an acceptable alternative, and I am going to make you look like fools in the process. Fuck you."

    Otherwise, he doesn't seem to have much in mind. He's pretty much just consumed with an obsessive refusal to be fucked with. Stalin was like that too--Trotsky gets to enjoy the consolation prize of being remembered as "the losing half of a power struggle in which the winner was an evil fuck", which consists of people attributing all kinds of romantic sentiments and retroactive, counterfactual optimism to your ideas just because they don't know what would have happened if you'd been in charge instead of the other guy, but the dispute basically arose over Trotsky wanting to embark upon some delusional world-conquest campaign whereas Stalin was the comparatively level-headed one who pointed out that they were in charge of the flaming ruins of a great empire after a bittle struggle to secure it, and effectively came up with the foreign-policy philosophy (later stated outright by Brezhnev) of "What we have, we hold."
    Last edited by Roger Mexico; 06-06-2015 at 06:55 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ptah View Post
    No history, no exposition, no anecdote or argument changes the invariant: we are all human beings, and some humans are idiots.

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    Hasta Siempre Madrigal's Avatar
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    The lead-up to WW3 is more about China than Russia. Around the year 2000 the US decided to reinforce a strategic distrust towards the country as it is the only one that can threaten US hegemony in the medium term. That means more and more military presence in South East Asia and diplomatic efforts to secure allies around China (anyone except Russia). All was going according to plan for Obama; now that the US was producing enough oil for itself for the first time since the 40s, it could start withdrawing from the middle east and focus on this new strategic obsession. At least that was the idea until Saudi Arabia put its finger in USA's ass by basically saying, "Oh no you don't, you're not going anywhere - and we're gonna flood the planet with cheap oil until you change your mind." Byebye fracking. That's actually more dangerous than simply keeping the US dependent on other people's oil; it could deeply affect banks and the financial system eventually, and you guessed it, the real economy. I guess we'll be looking at China again by then.

    In a nutshell, the US is screwed. It's scary to think about because it won't go quietly and we're all going to suffer for it.

    Re: Trotsky - we don't know what it would have been like if he had been in charge? That's a reason to underestimate the battle of someone that stalinism, nazism and US imperialism wanted dead? You know the allies understood that if they didn't stop Hitler, it was Trotsky that would win, right? That's on the record.
    Everything under heaven is in utter chaos; the situation is excellent. - Mao

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    Mens bona regnum possidet ferrus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Madrigal View Post
    The lead-up to WW3 is more about China than Russia. Around the year 2000 the US decided to reinforce a strategic distrust towards the country as it is the only one that can threaten US hegemony in the medium term. That means more and more military presence in South East Asia and diplomatic efforts to secure allies around China (anyone except Russia). All was going according to plan for Obama; now that the US was producing enough oil for itself for the first time since the 40s, it could start withdrawing from the middle east and focus on this new strategic obsession. At least that was the idea until Saudi Arabia put its finger in USA's ass by basically saying, "Oh no you don't, you're not going anywhere - and we're gonna flood the planet with cheap oil until you change your mind." Byebye fracking. That's actually more dangerous than simply keeping the US dependent on other people's oil; it could deeply affect banks and the financial system eventually, and you guessed it, the real economy. I guess we'll be looking at China again by then.

    In a nutshell, the US is screwed. It's scary to think about because it won't go quietly and we're all going to suffer for it.

    Re: Trotsky - we don't know what it would have been like if he had been in charge? That's a reason to underestimate the battle of someone that stalinism, nazism and US imperialism wanted dead? You know the allies understood that if they didn't stop Hitler, it was Trotsky that would win, right? That's on the record.
    Well... the fact that both the US and Russia are declining powers doesn't prevent them both declining in a noisy and painful way at the same time. In fact a big part of the first half of 20th century history was the story was several countries (Britain, France, Austria, Turkey, even Germany by drastic, multiple but ultimately temporary means) declining at the same time, and the consequences that resulted from that.

    I also think that China, because of its population and huge economic growth, will face some severe resource issues going forward that will mean that a more active foreign policy outside of South East Asia will be necessary. You are already seeing that at a low level, but it could become more of a direct conflict with the US going forward.
    Die Logik ist keine Lehre, sondern ein Spiegelbild der Welt. Die Logik ist transcendental. - Wittgenstein

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    Hasta Siempre Madrigal's Avatar
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    Sorry that quoting is kind of a pain in the ass on this phone - I agree, I guess it's not the lead-up that China would play a pivotal role in, but almost certainly in the outcome. If the US was the world power that stood to gain from WW2, China is that world power now. Nobody's going to win a world war without China. I wonder how it would be detonated though. Probably not by any event we can foresee at this point. The nuclear aspect is kinda terrifying.
    Everything under heaven is in utter chaos; the situation is excellent. - Mao

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    Quote Originally Posted by Madrigal View Post
    Sorry that quoting is kind of a pain in the ass on this phone - I agree, I guess it's not the lead-up that China would play a pivotal role in, but almost certainly in the outcome. If the US was the world power that stood to gain from WW2, China is that world power now. Nobody's going to win a world war without China. I wonder how it would be detonated though. Probably not by any event we can foresee at this point. The nuclear aspect is kinda terrifying.
    These kind of things are too chaotic to predict.

    What is terrifying from a nuclear perspective is that at least in the cold war there were two antagonists - which meant that both sides had a fair amount of information about the other and could tacitly agree to hold off from each other's spheres of influence and fought each other in limited wars in proxies. As the number of powers in the world increases and the number of powerful actors becomes more and more decentralised (something like ISIS would have been previously unimaginable for much of the last 200 years) the possibility to a misunderstanding leading to a nuclear war could come from multiple sources now. Which is why it is kind of ironic people treated the end of the cold war as this kind of golden age of peace and security. It was just realigning the world to the same multipolar tension that obtained pre-WW1.
    Die Logik ist keine Lehre, sondern ein Spiegelbild der Welt. Die Logik ist transcendental. - Wittgenstein

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    Hasta Siempre Madrigal's Avatar
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    I'm going to go ahead and assume that any 'unpredictable nuclear actor' would be blown to smithereens pretty soon.
    Everything under heaven is in utter chaos; the situation is excellent. - Mao

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    Mens bona regnum possidet ferrus's Avatar
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    I wouldn't say it is unpredictable actors that are the problem, only as when more and more actors are involved with different webs of interests and relations, the chance of a mistake or random event in one spiralling out of control is increased with every actor involved.
    Die Logik ist keine Lehre, sondern ein Spiegelbild der Welt. Die Logik ist transcendental. - Wittgenstein

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