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Thread: Su-24 shoot-down by Turkey, split from Paris bombings thread

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    Su-24 shoot-down by Turkey, split from Paris bombings thread

    Quote Originally Posted by kitsune View Post
    That explains a lot.

    Turkey is fucked. They are sleeping with everyone, which can be very beneficial for a while, but tends to blow up in all kinds of horrible ways in the end.

    I guess it's too late now to just exit.
    The possibility of a Turkish-Russian conflict is perhaps the most scary aspect of the war right now. US and French forces in Syria will definitely not want to tangle with Russia but Turkey is spoiling for a fight and might drag in NATO with it. And as I've said before, many conservative Orthodox Russians consider Turkey to be a natural enemy of Russia.
    Die Logik ist keine Lehre, sondern ein Spiegelbild der Welt. Die Logik ist transcendental. - Wittgenstein

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    Quote Originally Posted by ferrus View Post
    The possibility of a Turkish-Russian conflict is perhaps the most scary aspect of the war right now. US and French forces in Syria will definitely not want to tangle with Russia but Turkey is spoiling for a fight and might drag in NATO with it. And as I've said before, many conservative Orthodox Russians consider Turkey to be a natural enemy of Russia.
    I didn't realize Turkey was spoiling for a fight.

    "
    'I cannot play with you,' the fox said. 'I am not tamed.'" - Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, Le Petit Prince (1943)

    REMINDER TO SELF WHEN DEALING WITH THE RABBIT WARRIOR: "All warfare is based on deception." - Sun Tzu,
    The Art of War

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    Quote Originally Posted by ferrus View Post
    The possibility of a Turkish-Russian conflict is perhaps the most scary aspect of the war right now. US and French forces in Syria will definitely not want to tangle with Russia but Turkey is spoiling for a fight and might drag in NATO with it. And as I've said before, many conservative Orthodox Russians consider Turkey to be a natural enemy of Russia.
    So er... Yeah despite popular opinion to the contrary sometimes, I do know what I'm talking about.Turkey downed a Russian jet this morning.
    Die Logik ist keine Lehre, sondern ein Spiegelbild der Welt. Die Logik ist transcendental. - Wittgenstein

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    Quote Originally Posted by ferrus View Post
    So er... Yeah despite popular opinion to the contrary sometimes, I do know what I'm talking about.Turkey downed a Russian jet this morning.
    I don't think Turkey is spoiling for a fight with the Bear.
    As for the shoot-down, I called it first:

    Quote Originally Posted by OrionzRevenge View Post
    The news out of the Pentagon that at least 4 of Putin's high-tech Kaliber Cruise-Missiles malfunction en route, and crashed in Iran, might make him a little less eager to constantly taunt NATO.

    I really think he wants to assert himself more for the home crowd, but this might make him a bit more cautious about poking his finger into NATO airspace. Lest he have to walk-off the the embarrassment of getting it stung by NATO's Gen 4 or Gen 5 aircraft.

    Anyways, that's the hope.
    Creativity is the residue of time wasted. ~ Albert Einstein

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    Quote Originally Posted by OrionzRevenge View Post
    I don't think Turkey is spoiling for a fight with the Bear.
    As for the shoot-down, I called it first:
    For all intents and purposes they are a country ruled by islamist-lites who don't have the caution or fear of a war with Russia the rest do, given the dramatically different social conditions that obtain in Turkey.

    Although Turkey's recent Anti-israel pivot may come to hurt it if the US refuses to back them up.

    Needless to say Erdogan has the exact same domestic benefits from sabrer-rattling that Putin himself does as this article makes clear.

    So when Mr. Erdogan, now president, suffered a stinging electoral defeat in June that left his party without a majority in Parliament and seemingly dashed his hopes of establishing an executive presidency, Turks were left wondering how he would respond.

    Now, many say they have their answer: a new war.

    As Turkey resumes military operations against the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or P.K.K., analysts see a calculated strategy for Mr. Erdogan’s Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party to regain its parliamentary majority in new elections.
    Having already delayed the formation of a coalition government, analysts say, Mr. Erdogan is now buttressing his party’s chances of winning new elections by appealing to Turkish nationalists opposed to self-determination for the Kurdish minority. Parallel to the military operations against the Kurds has been an effort to undermine the political side of the Kurdish movement by associating it with the violence of the P.K.K., which has also seemed eager to return to fighting. The state battled the group for three decades at a cost of about 40,000 lives before a fragile peace process began in 2013.
    “The overall assumption is that President Erdogan wants to create the conditions so the result of June 7 can be overturned, so that he can run the country from the presidency,” said Suat Kiniklioglu, a former lawmaker from Mr. Erdogan’s party and the executive director of the Center for Strategic Communication, a research organization in Ankara.
    A German general said as much last year: http://atimes.com/2015/11/german-gen...zone-in-syria/

    In an interview on “Anne Will” ARD-TV broadcast, and stating almost the same words that Davutoglu said on CNN, General Kujat said “look, that’s what Turkey wants to provoke [NATO Article 5]. Therefore it keeps saying ‘we can’t do that alone, others have to participate.’”

    In face of then ISIS massacre of Kobane Kurds, he continued bluntly: “Turkey basically wants to drag NATO into this situation because the actual goal of Turkey is to neutralize Assad…ISIS’s actions and what’s happening to the Kurds are subsidiary…and it has to be clearly said that an ally who behaves like this doesn’t deserve the protection of this alliance, an ally who doesn’t intervene for protection in a such tragic situation doesn’t deserve protection himself.”

    The former NATO general recommended removing Patriot batteries from Turkey to send a signal, and in August 2015 they were removed.[3]

    Regarding the Patriot missiles, German newspaper Frankfurter Rundschau said: “Politically, the mission did not serve anything. The Turkish government is more concerned with its own interests, not with those of the alliance.”[4]

    On whether Turkey could invoke the mutual defense clause if its military were deployed to Syrian territory to set up a buffer zone, General Kujat said “if Turkish troops were to conduct operations in Syria without Syria’s permission and without a UN mandate and then be attacked this would never amount to a casus foederis (Article 5).”[5]
    Last edited by ferrus; 11-24-2015 at 11:06 AM.
    Die Logik ist keine Lehre, sondern ein Spiegelbild der Welt. Die Logik ist transcendental. - Wittgenstein

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    Quote Originally Posted by ferrus View Post
    For all intents and purposes they are a country ruled by islamist-lites who don't have the caution or fear of a war with Russia the rest do, given the dramatically different social conditions that obtain in Turkey.

    Although Turkey's recent Anti-israel pivot may come to hurt it if the US refuses to back them up.

    Needless to say Erdogan has the exact same domestic benefits from sabrerrattling that Putin himself does.
    Well, Putin IS the provocateur here. I think Turkey's biggest concern with all this mess is the desire of the Kurds (that dominate the the region north of the Iraq/Syrian border in proximity to Kurdish lands across the way) for a free unified Kurdistan. It's hard to make a rational argument that this shouldn't come to pass.
    Creativity is the residue of time wasted. ~ Albert Einstein

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    Quote Originally Posted by OrionzRevenge View Post
    Well, Putin IS the provocateur here. I think Turkey's biggest concern with all this mess is the desire of the Kurds (that dominate the the region north of the Iraq/Syrian border in proximity to Kurdish lands across the way) for a free unified Kurdistan. It's hard to make a rational argument that this shouldn't come to pass.
    This should probably be a separate thread. Further news:
    Reuters news agency has been told by the official of a Syrian rebel group that one of the pilots is in fact dead.
    Earlier we mentioned a video and Reuters says that you can hear a voice says "a Russian pilot" and another saying: "God is great".
    The group, operating in north-west Syria, sent the footage to the news agency and operate in the same area as the Free Syrian Army and other groups.
    The whereabouts or condition of the second pilot are unknown and the official made no comment on what may happened to the pilot.
    Oddly the Russians seem to want to pin the blame on the rebels, not Turkey:

    Dmitriy Kiselev, the Russia Today presenter (aka Russia's chief spin doctor) has been telling people to stop the hysterics as Turkey is Russia's friend and trading partner - clearly trying to play things down.
    On Russian TV, they have mainly been blaming the rebels, and not mentioning Turkey at all. The general thrust is to try to play down this incident.
    No word from Kremlin at all but the rumour is Mr Putin may 'say something' about the incident tomorrow when he meets Saudi Arabia's King Salman.
    A Russian expert commentator has said that no air cover was provided for the SU-24 but he was pulled off the programme before he could say any more.
    Die Logik ist keine Lehre, sondern ein Spiegelbild der Welt. Die Logik ist transcendental. - Wittgenstein

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    Quote Originally Posted by ferrus View Post
    This should probably be a separate thread. Further news:


    Oddly the Russians seem to want to pin the blame on the rebels, not Turkey:
    Maybe we can get a Mod to grant us Thread Independence.

    I'm not surprised that Putin's Posse might want to down-play this.
    For over a year Putin has been probing NATO airspace over the Ukraine issue.
    Turkey warned Russia a month ago that it would fire on interlopers and this may very well have been an accidental stray during war sorties.

    The cost of doing this sort of Brinkmanship.
    Just like JFK and Khrushchev had to play down such events during the Cuban Missile Crisis.
    Creativity is the residue of time wasted. ~ Albert Einstein

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    Bits of information:

    Diplomats are expressing thinly disguised alarm. In a country, which frequently complains of Turkish fighter jets both violating and buzzing Greek airspace over the Aegean, the shooting of the SU-24 is being described by diplomats in private “as an extremely serious incident” that has prompted “high concern.”

    “This is the first time since the beginning of the cold war that a member of Nato destroys a Russian military aircraft,” said one. “It is an extremely serious incident. There is high concern [in Athens].”
    “It is very bad news for Turkey that a Russian jet was shot down. Putin will not leave this unanswered, he might retaliate in different ways, for example by cutting off Turkey’s natural gas supply from Russia over the winter. He might also choose to reply in kind, in a similarly aggressive manner in Syria. But one thing is certain: Putin will not stand for this, we have difficult days ahead of us.”
    President Erdogan was said to be especially annoyed that he was not consulted about Russia’s intentions during his visit to Moscow in September when he met President Vladimir Putin.

    Turkey has a long history of tension with Russia over unresolved disputes such as Moscow’s support for Nagorno-Karabakh, the Armenian-controlled breakaway enclave in Azerbaijan.

    Ottoman Turkey and Tsarist Russia fought a war in 1877-78. And Stalin briefly laid claim to parts of eastern Turkey at the end of the Second World War.

    But ties have improved in recent times, with a series of energy and trade deals. Russia is now Turkey’s second-largest trading partner and 60% of its natural gas comes from Russia.

    Economic dependence is one powerful reason, among several, why Erdogan will not want this latest border incident to escalate into a wider confrontation – although this is something that may not be entirely within his control.

    Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, is due to visit Ankara on Wednesday for bilateral talks. Turkish officials said the visit would go ahead as planned, even as they consult with Nato in Brussels. There will be much to discuss.
    Die Logik ist keine Lehre, sondern ein Spiegelbild der Welt. Die Logik ist transcendental. - Wittgenstein

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    Turkey shot down a Russian warplane. Why it would happen and why it matters, explained.

    One important question is whether this will have any ramifications for the international peace talks to end Syria's war. Russia has been making ever-so-tentative signals that it might be willing to make some real concessions to end the war, maybe even help to nudge out Assad.

    This incident, then, could lead Russia to conclude that its Syria involvement is getting too costly.

    While Russian leaders don't really, as a rule, admit mistakes — that's not how they teach it in the Moscow school of diplomacy, as I heard one senior US official put it — there are indications that it was beginning to see its Syria intervention as a mistake.

    A number of Russians have reportedly died in the fighting, and they don't have much to show for it. In October, Russian and Iranian forces helped Assad's army launch a big military campaign to retake territory from the rebels — and it largely failed.

    Russia's Syria intervention is unpopular at home, and Putin is extremely sensitive to public opinion. A September poll by Moscow's Levada Center found that only 39 percent of respondents said they supported Russia's policy toward the Assad regime. When asked what Russia should do for Assad, 69 percent opposed direct military intervention. A tiny 14 percent of respondents said that Russia should send troops or other direct military support to Syria.

    That's a pretty sharp contrast to Russia's policy toward Ukraine, which has been enormously popular with Russians. Putin's first, second, and third concerns have always been to maintain his own rule at home. With the economy in shambles, public opinion is crucial for that. Now that footage is emerging of a dead Russian pilot, Russian public opinion could become even more skeptical of the Syria intervention. And Putin will likely respond to that.

    At the same time, this could lead Putin to harden his position on Syria — to seek to raise the stakes and make this about avenging Russian honor as a means to shore up public support for the war. That's probably not the most likely outcome, but it is a possibility.
    Die Logik ist keine Lehre, sondern ein Spiegelbild der Welt. Die Logik ist transcendental. - Wittgenstein

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