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Thread: Oil Reserves and Crisis

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    Senior Member Makers!*'s Avatar
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    Oil Reserves and Crisis

    Syria

    Syria is the only significant crude oil producing country in the Eastern Mediterranean region, which includes Jordan, Lebanon, Israel and the Palestinian territories. According to the Oil and Gas Journal, Syria had 2,500,000,000 barrels (400,000,000 m3) of petroleum reserves as of 1 January 2010.
    Venezuela

    The proven oil reserves in Venezuela are recognized as the largest in the world, totaling 297 billion barrels (4.721010 m3) as of 1 January 2014.
    Iraq and Kuwait

    Oil reserves in Iraq are considered the world's fifth -largest proven oil reserves, with 140 billion barrels. The sources for this oil is primarily located in the Shiite Muslims-majority and Arab Sunni Muslims-dominated areas on the other hand are comparatively lacking.

    Oil reserves in Kuwait make up 8% of the oil reserves in the world. Kuwait is OPEC's third largest oil producer and claims to hold approximately 104 billion barrels (16.5109 m3). This includes half of the 5 billion barrels (790106 m3) in the Saudi-Kuwaiti neutral zone which Kuwait shares with Saudi Arabia.
    ...weird
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    What's weird?

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    Senior Member jyng1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by scarydoor View Post
    What's weird?

    The US hasn't militarily intervened in Venezuela and Kuwait yet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jyng1 View Post
    The US hasn't militarily intervened in Venezuela and Kuwait yet.
    I wouldn't expect to see it, necessarily.

    Kuwait and the US are pretty good allies already - they've got a few military bases there. And maybe venezuala is already pumping out enough oil, or they're controlling it in some other way, I don't know. Besides that, I think the US has gotten involved in too many things recently, they probably don't need to have another random war about oil control, when they can't finish off the last few.

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    Senior Member Starjots's Avatar
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    Syria's reserves seem fairly paltry when compared to countries like Iraq and Kuwait.

    Venezuela has huge reserves but it's heavy oil which costs more to extract and refine.

    Quote Originally Posted by jyng1 View Post
    The US hasn't militarily intervened in Venezuela and Kuwait yet.
    See 1990/91.

    I started this abortive thread on oil a couple of years back. My thought was with Trump the double whammy of his love of the fossil fuel industry and the Russians would lead to higher prices through indirect market manipulation. Revoking the Iran deal would be an example of higher oil prices possibly being a factor.

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    your cheapest wine Johnny's Avatar
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    The crisis isn't solely in oil, IMO. The crisis is being expressed in stubbornly uncooperative global gDp and trade growth overall:
    http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2018...the-wasteland/

    Venezuela seems to make a good example for this situation, given its current economic, political, and social crises:
    https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/ven/
    https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visua...how/2709/2016/

    Note the last links, where almost 35% of Venezuela's export revenue comes from the US in 2016 (we were Venezuela's biggest customer, while China is second).

    But we export petroleum products to China also (more recently, 0.45 MMb/d, or 7% of our total petroleum exports).
    https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6

    Now thanks to removing the ban on international US petroleum sales, here will continue to be public pressure to enter markets such as China.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy...nservation_Act

    Of course there are a lot of petroleum products besides crude that are traded, and not all crude is exactly the same crude. I confess to not knowing much here, myself...and the public trade data is dated. But I will stick my neck out to say that I believe that the US dollar is still the world's most favored reserve currency, and US treasuries are still the most favored USD vehicle with which to maintain that reserve currency. So the less Venezuelan oil sold to the US, the fewer US dollars Venezuela can obtain to support its financial system and encourage international investment in its own economy. It's a two-pronged spear that's being driven into Venezuela's economic heart and a brutal warning to EMs that possess Venezuela's lack of diversification in their economies.

    I don't think money itself is the problem, but I do think the lack of spending is a great start in figuring out what the problem might be. I mean, you would think all this oil would be enabling the human race to modernize and improve living and working conditions throughout the world at a pace never before seen! But it's not. It's creating financial stress for the entire Middle East, Russia, the US, Africa, et al, while less oil-rich nations such as China and Japan ironically struggle to find ways to reduce their vulnerability to shortages.

    There may be a hidden blessing to Trump and the populist wave bringing political risks to the positive global trade narrative forward just as lending brings forward spending in an economy. Right now I think Western banks are hesitant to lend to just about anything but the security and surveillance industry right now (and companies that have retooled themselves to support those systems e.g. self driving cars) because the political risks have yet to be resolved satisfactorily, and I think that's the biggest driver for this continued economic recession we've been coping with for the last 10 years.
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    Senior Member Sinny's Avatar
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    Hasn't America been trying to economically cripple Venezuela? And Venezuela have actually putting up a half decent fight for survival?

    I migh be getting my South American countries confused, that's one for me to revisit.
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    Pull the strings! Architect's Avatar
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    Oil's not a problem, next month whatever is going on with oil will be forgotten. The US is near to being oil independent (tar sands I believe) and at any rate oil has hit it's peak. At the moment we're in the natural gas age, to be followed by renewables. I don't have the chart handy but it's a 2000 year history of our relationship with energy. First was the wood age, then coal, oil, now natural gas and soon wind/sun (Saudi Arabia's latest energy plant was solar, just because it's cheaper than a gas plant per kWh).

    The old energy sources never go away - we still burn wood - but it's a dying exponential. Anyhow oil is done for, we've got enough to last us into the foreseeable future.

  9. #9
    your cheapest wine Johnny's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sinny View Post
    Hasn't America been trying to economically cripple Venezuela? And Venezuela have actually putting up a half decent fight for survival?
    Recently? Yeah, purportedly for narcotics trafficking, and yeah I think in general the US wants Maduro out and replaced by a more pro-US government.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN1I81S1

    Venezuela still has oil you know, and lots of it to utilize. It doesn't make much sense to me to think that Venezuela would hesitate for very long to sell it if the customers would just come.

    But the customers aren't coming, obviously, which means the money isn't coming either. And not very many people seem to want or even want to endorse their petro coin, either:
    https://www.coindesk.com/crypto-inve...ezuelas-petro/

    I can't help but keep asking, why are the customers for oil, globally, continuing to put pressure on oil usage and oil prices when it could fuel a new age of global prosperity? Why isn't China and India crashing Venezuela's front door with empty buckets and wads of yuan and rupee to throw at them, especially when V-town is at its weakest?

    Well for one, almost no one without advanced industrial productive capacity to refine it into usable goods that must then be stored in a specialized manner for transport and distribution through additional advanced industrial systems to make worthwhile for trade and generate profit gives a rat's ass about Venezuela's condition or could do much about it even if they really were concerned. Otherwise, Venezuela wouldn't be where they are right now. Their people would continue to prosper and the government would take credit for it at every opportunity.

    Yet the US has imposed sanctions on narcotics trafficking to obtain US dollars that might have otherwise found their way to Venezuela through, say, petrocoin investing, knowing full well that the problem for Maduro regarding the petro is, "How the fuck am I going to convince USD holders to buy petro when it's obvious that I have no real interest in offering surveillance on those transactions (i.e., soooo desperate to take the money and run without being caught)?"

    Yeah, it's a big fucking mess all around as far as I can tell. The global economy still pines for US dollars despite that the US would really, really love to see its currency weaken rather than strengthen, put Americans to work rather than leave them listless to make trouble, and finally get off the debt-tit and stop being the world's whipping boy for our collective failures as it continues to fight for global stability with little mercy from other nations. China knows this. India knows this. Even Venezuela knows this.

    Who, really, wants to end up like the US is today? Hand me their currency and let me see if I can buy something with it no matter where I go, and then I'll know you mean it.

    That's what I mean when I say bitcoin's going to zero when all the stupid is finally drained out of it.
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    Venezuela got into crisis because they started shaking down everything for no reason, gave free oil to cuba and to bolivia, put more people than necessary to work for no profits, their whole economy depended on selling its oil, what do you expect if people have to live like the're nothing more than what they've got at the moment? they flew away so there's no business and there's no electricity because there's no business and no money because there's fucking nothing.

    I'm hyped about checking the immigration statistics for venezuelan people because these last 2 years i've been meeting them every damn day in the streets like never before, and they work and push harder than anyone because they have experienced the horrors of war, they are the true hope, not all this communist hope bullcrap, you say power to the people? REALLY? so venezuelan youth has taken the streets and revolted against their government, communist dictatorship.

    Why not focus in that point, people are not feeling nice about their country, they are sick of criminality, sick of not having anything to eat and having to wait hours in a row to get their food delivered, sick of not having medicines and also sick about having nothing to fight for. but you know what they have? information, and they know how well everyone lives outside that hell, and that's why they don't conform.

    You can say well USA is conspiring against Maduro and they cut drugs income, they cut businesses here and there, there's some some debt blabla, so they are the real problem, yeah, maybe the north is the south and indonesia is bigger than usa and russia combined, and it's pity how people live in africa eh? but who the fuck cares? because then why don't you go and establish yourself in Petare, to help the poor? and yeah, you won't like to be there because it's likely you get killed in a few hours. Hypocrisy everywhere. The world has grown up capitalist and in its venom is the cure for communism, communist is nothing else than a pagan sacrifice.

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