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Thread: Moderate scenario of civilzation's decline: Year 2150

  1. #11
    TJ TeresaJ's Avatar
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    I'm with Makers. I think people can't live healthy lives totally cut off from nature. But on the other hand... Plenty of people lead unhealthy lives but nonetheless pass on their genes and unhealthy lifestyles to their children, never consciously aware of what they're missing.

    I haven't watched Total Recall in a long time, but that sort of squalor and dependence on artificial systems... However I'm really not worried about nature. Nature will survive one way or another. It just might not be the nature we've evolved to be a part of.

    This thread makes me realize how much I really should sit down and look at projections of resource scarcity. Sci fi fantasies are one thing. Hard data are something else.

    I think technology will take care of some things. Recycling will probably get much more sophisticated and efficient. But I don't think technology will save us from multi-drug resistant bacteria, for example. However I don't know how much of an impact that will actually have. A return to 18th century plague vulnerability, maybe. It'll be nasty but not so bad that in itself it alters the course of civilization.

    I'm honestly more worried about global warming leading to flooding and food shortages to such an extent that they dwarf the refugee crises of our current era. That in itself could topple the global economy/society that we currently have.

    Places that are already kind of fucked up... Much of Africa, for example, might actually come out on top. They don't have as much to lose and they're already accustomed to picking themselves up from disaster. They also have tons of natural resources. The fall of the current global order might be just what they need to be able to thrive. It'll probably hit them hard as anywhere at first, but they might recover a few generations before, say, Europe.

  2. #12
    your cheapest wine Johnny's Avatar
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    I think by 2150 there will be a lot more studies on humans living on remote islands and, with that, the construction of artificial islands for people to live not only because the oceans are so vast (relatively speaking) but also because commerce between the Americas and Asia may become much more robust.

    That's where things are headed IMO. Considering China and India alone, with such immense human populations and far fewer domestic resources to support them as their economies develop and evolve, a Pacific "belt and road" initiative would be logical, economically meaningful, and doable in, say, 130 years lol
    What's the difference? It's just soda, bro.

  3. #13
    Meae Musae Servus Hephaestus's Avatar
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    I think either India or China is going to eclipse the US soon. Within 50 years. Maybe faster. Just the sheer population size and access to the same tech levels are enough to make it loom likely. I personally favor China in this, just because I infer Kurzweil favors them--and apparently they're dumping buckets of energy at AI. That old saw about monkeys, typewriters and Shakespeare comes to mind.

    I suspect that payphones are going to make a big comeback in the next 50 years too--maybe in the next generation--and it will be driven by two-factor authorization. It's almost everywhere now, and with good reason. Check your email against haveibeenpwned.com if you dare--once you start thinking about security, there's some room for paranoia to creep in as I could hypothetically farm a bunch of email addresses with a site like that, but really, people just fling those things around anyway and just getting someone's email is only half the battle--the easy half. Still, as a sidebar, I think it's high time we stopped running around with our zippers undone and had something--anything--other than the address itself as the login as that would double the work needed to get in. But I digress.

    The problem is we are largely reliant on other people's security for our own--kind of implicit with being a hypersocial animal that finds safety in numbers--but in this case, your weak security habits can be exploited by someone managing to breach the defenses on a database with your email and favorite general password in it. That and they had access to your account wherever they had that breach, and any financial data that was part of your record as well. haveibeenpwned will tell you if any of your info was part of a breach. Two factor, while a bit annoying, does have the advantage of giving you stronger security in that they now have to either have your phone, and be able to breach it, or somehow catch the code being sent to your phone, and decrypt it before it expires, and execute their attack before you discover the attempted access and take any steps you might have at your disposal to block it and resecure the account.

    To the best of my limited knowledge, the easiest way to do that would be to swipe someone's phone. The more people get into two factor, the more dependent they are on that weak spot, so the more cagey they get until the idea of loaning your phone to someone to make a call makes about as much sense as letting a stranger use your wallet to make a purchase--and for the same reason. But there will still be people who genuinely need to use a phone and won't have a working phone of their own, so... some sort of payphone makes sense in a culture that chooses text message two-factor over more readily losable USB dongle options.
    People think they understand their own mortality, even when that understanding has just changed.

    --Meditations on Uncertainty Vol ξ(x)

  4. #14
    No Thank You Blorg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TeresaJ View Post
    Places that are already kind of fucked up... Much of Africa, for example, might actually come out on top. They don't have as much to lose and they're already accustomed to picking themselves up from disaster. They also have tons of natural resources. The fall of the current global order might be just what they need to be able to thrive. It'll probably hit them hard as anywhere at first, but they might recover a few generations before, say, Europe.
    Well, they have tons of cash crops. Europe, on the other hand, could sustain itself in the short term from its own food production. And if there were a crash, I imagine the EU would stop all its cheap food exports to Africa. Most African countries are net importers of food, so it would be a double-blow; loss of funds from cash crop exports, and loss of food imports. Unless the EU suddenly decides that sharing is nice, I imagine there would be mass starvation in Africa during the transition period - if there could even be a transition period to wide-scale food production on former cash crop lands, which I'm skeptical about because:

    Spoiler: I don't remember how to make pictures small


    I'm certain that I should resign myself to the conclusion that the baddies have temporarily won the Earth story, though they will mostly die out too in the end. Environmentalists should start thinking in terms of palliative care.

  5. #15
    Damned
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    Quote Originally Posted by TeresaJ View Post
    Trying desperately to title this thread in such a way that it discourages end-of-almost-all-humanity, apocalypse fantasies.

    ...Knowing I will probably fail.

    So here goes:

    Assuming that society does not fully collapse by the year 2150 but rather limps along, struggling... What do you think will be the most interesting changes? Which communities do you think will be the most resilient, and why? Which are the most vulnerable? Let's also talk about resources: water and soil in particular.

    Most of you probably won't have descendents to worry about. Just play along.
    There is a fundamental struggle going on at the moment between two mindsets

    One mindset believes in taking personal responsiblity for your own life and believes in little government intrusion and in personal liberty and privacy

    The other mindset believes in government dependency, no privacy, no freedoms or liberties and the state dictating everything to you so that you have no responsiblity for anything. Many poor people are willingly accepting this offer in the hope of being given free stuff but this current is controlled by elites who want everyone dependent on the state so that they can totally control them (totalitarianism means the total control of every aspect of your life). Freedom is the freedom of choice but the technocrats would remove all power of choice from you

    Whichever mindset wins out will determine the shape of the future society

    The state dependency people want everyone unemployed and deskilled and replaced by robots. They then intend to offer people a technologically based sub reality into which people will hook themselves. It will offer them an alternative reality for their consciousness which they will become addicted to like a drug. More and more people will leave this reality for that fake reality

    The people who run that fake reality however do not believe in keeping the world population at its current size. So rather than them sustaining peoples bodies while they merge with machines i think the alternate reality will be more of a way to quietly euthanise a distressed population in order to cull it

    IQ is lowering with every generation as is fertility in both men and women. Within several generations there will be many people too infertile or to dumb to have and raise children. Only the super rich will be able to afford the CRISPR gene therapy to overcome these problems and they will have 'designer babies' that are given certain desired attributes

    This will create different classes of humans which will create a caste based society. meanwhile AI will run the SMART grid that will monitor everyones every action, word and thought

    Anyone who has a dissenting thought will be picked up by the state if they haven't already under 'pre-crime' algorithms and sent to re-education centres. Sometimes they will re-emerge into society and sometimes they will just dissapear like what is happening in china right now
    Last edited by mara; 01-14-2019 at 11:28 AM.

  6. #16
    Damned
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    In the short term we will see the roll out of 5G which will enable the roll out of the 'internet of things' which will see EVERYTHING microchipped including humans

    The entire world will be bathed in wifi radiation from space satellites and from 5G substations placed outside everyones homes

    This will create a healthbomb as people develop all kinds of microwave caused health problems

    cars will become autonomous and ultimately controlled by artificial intelligence. Cities will become 'SMART' with all appliances controlled by the aritificial intelligence through 'the cloud'

    each citizen will be given a 'social credit score' depending on how well behaved the technocrats think they are being

    most people will lose their jobs to AI, robots and algorithms. They will then be offered 'universal basic income' that will make them entirely dependent on the state. In order to receive the UBI they will have to accept a microchip in their hand which will communicate constantly to the cloud. The UBI will be a digital currency and all physical cash will be banned so that no one can trade in the black market

    All transactions will be monitored and ultimately controlled by the technocrats. To pay for things people will have to swipe their microchip just as they are doing now with their 'contactless cards' and mobile phones

    Mobile phones will become wearable and then implantable

    Neural implants will create an 'augmented reality' so that as you walk down the street corporate adverts will speak directly into your mind and create visuals that you can see

    The SMART dust that has been injected into people will be activated by signals sent out by the 5G network and will then control centres of peoples brains

    People will be helpless slaves to the technocracy which will ultimately dictate to people where they live, what they may buy, who they may hang around with, whether or not they may breed, what tasks if any they must perform, what they may say or think and where they may go

    No one will be allowed free will. People will become biological manniquins controlled by the elites who are behind the technocracy. That is what the elites want: TOTAL CONTROL. It's what every tyrant has wanted except now technology can enable them to achieve it

  7. #17
    Moderator Thoth's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hephaestus View Post
    I'm still planning to write-in Dunkelzahn for president in 2056.
    Eight years past the Awakening, things are looking bleak for the Big D's arrival. On the upshot (depending on which side of the social justice a chummer is on) we've skipped the Great Ghost Dance.

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