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  1. #801
    Ieilaelite pensive_pilgrim's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jyng1 View Post
    US on track to be recording 50,000 deaths a day in a month.
    lol, that's more than twice as many as the total number of people who have died in more than three months worldwide. You must be binging on the sensationalist media lately, no wonder you're embracing heavy-handed authoritarianism.

    Seriously though, if you're scared because you're in the vulnerable population, I hope your government is providing so you can stay home and not have to go to work.

  2. #802
    Senior Member roki's Avatar
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    I got a physician on reddit to explain what they tested and s/he said the test they did was for the other strains and didn't include the covid-19, so when it said "(not covid-19)," it truly meant it (this is obvious now, but needed confirmation). Wish the attending physician would've made it more clear that they wouldn't be testing for COVID-19 because she was under the impression that she did in fact get tested for it.
    god's gift

  3. #803
    Senior Member jyng1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pensive_pilgrim View Post
    lol, that's more than twice as many as the total number of people who have died in more than three months worldwide. You must be binging on the sensationalist media lately, no wonder you're embracing heavy-handed authoritarianism.

    Seriously though, if you're scared because you're in the vulnerable population, I hope your government is providing so you can stay home and not have to go to work.

    You must have failed math so bad.

    (Essential service dude. Got to go to work).


  4. #804
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    Quote Originally Posted by jyng1 View Post
    You must have failed math so bad.

    (Essential service dude. Got to go to work).

    I'd be interested to see who was performing that math calculation you're referring to. It's possibly correct, but I think that would be more due to chance, than good math.

    The daily death rate in the US does appear to be currently exponential. But that's only looking at a period of about 10 days. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    Whereas Italy's looked to be roughly exponential for around 20 days, but now looks to have flattened out and (apparently) is reducing. https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/

    Just for fun, if Italy's statistics had been extrapolated, from the data known up to March 15th, then we'd have predicted 5,353 new deaths occurring today, when in actuality there were 743. (and if we used data up to March 22nd, when they had their highest number of new deaths, we would have predicted today's new deaths to be 2,626. So... in a sense it had been "getting less exponential" there for a while, even while including that high number day)

    So although an exponential model applied to today's US data predicts 50,000/day, who knows what it could actually be. Fitting mathematical models to phenomenon like this needs to come with a lot of disclaimers. The actual function is a result of many other factors, that likely change through time, compared to the two fixed parameters for exponential.

  5. #805
    Senior Member jyng1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by scarydoor View Post
    I'd be interested to see who was performing that math calculation you're referring to. It's possibly correct, but I think that would be more due to chance, than good math.

    The daily death rate in the US does appear to be currently exponential. But that's only looking at a period of about 10 days. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    Whereas Italy's looked to be roughly exponential for around 20 days, but now looks to have flattened out and (apparently) is reducing. https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/

    Just for fun, if Italy's statistics had been extrapolated, from the data known up to March 15th, then we'd have predicted 5,353 new deaths occurring today, when in actuality there were 743. So although an exponential model applied to today's US data predicts 50,000/day, who knows what it could actually be. Fitting mathematical models to phenomenon like this needs to come with a lot of disclaimers. The actual function is a result of many other factors, that likely change through time, compared to the two fixed parameters for exponential.

    Yeah, it will be based on raw numbers, unmitigated by going back to work at Easter.

  6. #806
    Senior Member Starjots's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pensive_pilgrim View Post
    lol, that's more than twice as many as the total number of people who have died in more than three months worldwide. You must be binging on the sensationalist media lately, no wonder you're embracing heavy-handed authoritarianism.

    Seriously though, if you're scared because you're in the vulnerable population, I hope your government is providing so you can stay home and not have to go to work.

    REAL DATA

    I hope this link from NYT works. This is the most concise way Ive seen for tracking how fucked or not fucked a country is.

    In the US deaths are doubling every 3 days. We're at 534.
    534 today
    1068 +3 days
    2136 +6
    4272 +9
    8544 +12
    17088 +15
    35176 +18
    70352 +21

    So, 20 days if we stay on this course. Can we make in time for Trumps new birth of the US?

    There is a lot of room for this thing to run, and every person who slept through Algebra I is going to fuck someone(s) else over.

    Now we could be worse and I hope it will get better, but this is the trajectory today. Seriously, to me your type of thinking is dangerous.

  7. #807
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    Quote Originally Posted by jyng1 View Post
    Yeah, it will be based on raw numbers, unmitigated by going back to work at Easter.
    Just to clarify, when fitting an idealised curve to real world data, and predicting for the future, there's a certain amount of error involved, and an assumption that the curve chosen is descriptive of the mechanics of the system. In the case of Italy, China, Iran, and maybe some others, the curve took the appearance of exponential for a while, but now appears to be not exponential. In those cases it appears that possibly there was an exponential factor in the system that was interrupted causing it to no longer be exponential. Also, the amount of known past data influences how accurate future predictions can be. Here, deaths have only occurred in the US for about 2 weeks, which makes predicting 4 weeks into the future open to error.

  8. #808
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    Quote Originally Posted by Starjots View Post
    REAL DATA

    I hope this link from NYT works. This is the most concise way Ive seen for tracking how fucked or not fucked a country is.

    In the US deaths are doubling every 3 days. We're at 534.
    534 today
    1068 +3 days
    2136 +6
    4272 +9
    8544 +12
    17088 +15
    35176 +18
    70352 +21

    So, 20 days if we stay on this course. Can we make in time for Trumps new birth of the US?

    There is a lot of room for this thing to run, and every person who slept through Algebra I is going to fuck someone(s) else over.

    Now we could be worse and I hope it will get better, but this is the trajectory today.
    And what about those who didn't enroll in Mathematical Modelling I ?

  9. #809
    Senior Member Starjots's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by scarydoor View Post
    Just to clarify, when fitting an idealised curve to real world data, and predicting for the future, there's a certain amount of error involved, and an assumption that the curve chosen is descriptive of the mechanics of the system. In the case of Italy, China, Iran, and maybe some others, the curve took the appearance of exponential for a while, but now appears to be not exponential. In those cases it appears that possibly there was an exponential factor in the system that was interrupted causing it to no longer be exponential. Also, the amount of known past data influences how accurate future predictions can be. Here, deaths have only occurred in the US for about 2 weeks, which makes predicting 4 weeks into the future open to error.
    Its open to what WE do collectively, but there is a lag between cause and effect.

  10. #810
    Cooler than Jesus
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    I’m guessing our rate of new cases and deaths is going to decline here pretty soon, many people have transitioned to working from home (or not working at all) and staying isolated within the last week, so we’re probably still seeing cases from before that happened due to the incubation period.

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